EAST ASIAN TEXTILE TRADE IN 1973

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010200-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 200
• Publication Date: February 27, 1974
• Content Type: MF

 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010200-5
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9.7 F E B 1974 STAT
 Approved For Release 2006/09/2Q;`.',CIA-RDP85T008.75R001900010200-5
Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong
Despite restraints on textile shipments to the US
market, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong continued to
expand their overall textile exports at a rapid pace in
1973. Taiwan, and South Korea, whose sales each exceeded
$1 billion for the first time last year, recorded growth
rates of 50% and 78% respectively. South Korea's gains
were particularly impressive in view of the fact that
its sales to the United States, normally about twc-fifths
of South Korea's total textile exports, were virtually
unchanged from the 1972 level. Hong Kong's exports totalled
$1.8 billion, up one-third from 1972.
The key to this outstanding record was East Asia's
success in gaining access ?co other markets. The three
countries began a serious marketing effort in Europe
after restraint agreements were negotiated with the United
States in late 1971. As a result, sales jumped sharply in
1972 ar again last year. In 1973, Taiwan, South Korea,
and Hong Kong together sold more than $1 billion worth of
textile products to Western Europe, up some $300 million
from the previous year. South Korea about doubled its sales
there w.h-Lie Tai.-;an and i-iong Kong each recorded gains of
7'0 .
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another key growth market for these countries has been
Japan. In the case of South Korea, exports to Japan
more than tripled to $550 million in 1973, and now exceed
sales to the United States. Much of the increase reflects
sales of raw silk in addition to intermediate clothing
products such as pockets and collars used by Japan's
industry in making finished items. Taiwan and Hong Kong,
on the other hand, are boosting their exports of finished
clothing items to Japan. Each about tripled their sales
to Japan last year. Taiwan and Hong Kong also substantially
increased the value of sales to the United States despite
restraints on sales volume. The value of South Korean
sales to the United States remained unchanged.
Japan
The most dramatic change in East Asian textile trade
has been the rapid growth of Japan's imports of manufactured
textile products. During January-November 1973, Japanese
textile imports amounted to about $1.4 billion, roughly
a 300% increase from the corresponding 1972 period. All
types of textile product imports registered a sharp
increase. rpparel, yarn, and thread imports more than
tripled in value and imports of fabrics and non-clothing 2n -2 _ iv as gas b. 's a result of these increases,
'r can ':tile i:::::)orts almost match the US level
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Several factors ..a e been responsible for the rapid
growth in imports. :h e synthetic industry , operating
at full capacity, was unable to keep up with domestic
demand. Supply problems were intensified when shortages
of petrochemical feedstocks occurred following the
interruption in normal oil deliveries to Japan in 'November.
Japan's weakening international competitive position also
has been a factor in the import grew;th. ItIage rates in
the Japanese textile industry have increased sharply i n
recent years and are no-... higher than in many Western European
countries. Currency realignments have further eroded Japan's
ability to compete in both domestic and foreign markets for
inexpensive textile products, which are being supplied by
Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong. Developed countries
have also increased their sales to Japan in response to
growing demand for higher quality, high fashion products.
For example, imports from the United States doubled to
$100 million during anuary-November 1973, and purchases
from Western Europe were up 145% to $340 million during
the same period.
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a i l r1 1 ,, 1 1. I
While imports soared, Japan's exports of textile
products have done poorly. Sales in 1973 totalled $2.7
billion, only 8% higher than t previous year. in
volume terms, overseas shipments probably declined by about
10% with the largest drop coming in clothing. The volume
of clothing exports may have declined by as much as 25%.
Sales in the US market fell especially fast -- indeed,
the Japanese have been meeting only about two-thirds of
their overall US quota for =n--.ade fiber textiles and
an even smaller share for cottons and woolens.
Prospects
Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong will face a sharp
decline in the growth of textile exports in 1974. Western
European countries will likely press for restraints in
accordance with the new Multifiber Textile Agreement (.%1 A)
which could substantially slow the growth in exports to
those countries. Moreover, the three smaller countries
will face increasing resistance in the Japanese market.
Japan's politically powerful textile industry already is
complaining about the flood of imports and if necessary
Tokyo will impose formal or informal controls on i.: worts .
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 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010200-5
While Japanese firms are pressing to restrain imports,
they anticipate a substantial. boost in the value of exports
during 1974. Supply problems will ease considerably this
year as domestic demand slows and more petrochemical feed-
stocks become available. Some slowdown in domestic demand
is already underway -- finished product inventories are
increasing and prices for textile products have begun to
fall. With domestic demand slipping, the textile industry
will pay more attention to overseas markets, including the
US market. The Japanese can boost sales here sharply
compared with last year when their textile quotas were only
partly filled. As in the past, the industry may cut
prices to help improve its competitive position abroad.
Along with a new export push, Japanese firms can be
expected to boost their investment in overseas textile
industries. Japan already has textile plants throughout
Southeast Asia and Latin America, as well as in the United
States. At least 8 Japanese-owned textile plants are
either planned, or under construction or in operation in
the United Stages.
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 Approved For Release 2006/09/26: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010200-5
JAPANESE TEXTILE EXPORTS
(million US$)
Total
2,499.5
2,700.0
8
of which:
United States
539.3
460.0
-15
Western Europe
117.7
95.0
-19
South Korea
126.2
280.0
122
Taiwan
76.6
122.0
59
Hong Kong
260.0
270.0
4
Other
1,379.7
1,473.0
7
a/ Estimates based on 11 month trade data
,. rt nl A (%'Il1:lcfl
010200-5
1 1
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94
TAIWAN TEXTILE 7--:-PORTS
(million USS)
1972
1973/ % Chance
Total
814.2
1,224.0
50
Japan
56.6
191.0
237
United States
286.9
336.0
17
Western Europe
116.1
200.0
72
Hong Kong
111.2
146.0
31
Other
243.4
351.0
44
a/ Estimates based. on 11 -.oath t_ade data
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HONG KONG TEXTILE EXPORTS
(million US$)
1972
1973x/
% Change
Total
1,363.8
1,829.0
34
Japan
17.0
53.0
212
United States
446.0
522.0
17
Western Europe
505.2
657.0
30
Taiwan
14.6
25.0
71
Other
381.0
572.0
50
a/ Estitates based on 10 month trade data
A I I ED
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Total
Japan
United States
Western Europe
Other
b/ Estimates based on 9 :::nth
1972
19731/
% Chance
672.8
1,200.0
78
181.7
550.0
203
252.5
250.0
--
79.4
160.0
102
159.2
240.0
51
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COfPPOSITION OF JAPANESE TEXTILE TRADE
(million US$)
IMPORTS
Jan-Nov 1972
Jan-Nov 1973
% Change
Yarn and thread
66
205
211
Fabrics
214
634
196
Apparel
136
479
252
Made-up goods
37
108
192
Total
453
1,426
215
Yarn and thread
Fabrics
Apparel
Made-up goods
Total
Jan-Nov 1972
Jan-Nov 1973
% Change
450
510
13
1,253
1,376
10
345
301
-13
162
201
24
2,210
2,388
8
3HIc;1.A. 'mFIEU
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CU:~?OSTT.O:: CF SOS H
=E.: 4 T XTILE TR.=~OE
(million US$)
I=?'.?0R S
Jan-Sep 1972
Jan-Se-) 1973
% Chance
Yarn and thread
27 -
80
196
Fabrics
61
122
100
Made-up goods
2
2
---
Apparel
16
8
-50
Total
106
212
100
Yarn and thread
Fabrics
Made-up goods
Apparel
Total
Jan-Sep 1972
Jar.--Sep 19'13
Change
31
56
81
75
202
169
14
53
279
311
467
50
431
778
81
0 ,f N. NJ IF B
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 Approved -For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-F~P d~lrO " Q 900010200-5
CO:IPOSITION OF TAIWAN'S TEXTILE TRADE
(million US$)
IMPORTS
Jan-Dec 1972
Jan-Dec 1973x/
Change
Yarn and thread
95
111
Fabrics
78
53
Made-up goods
3
4
Apparel
8
30u
Total
101
185
Yarn and thread
Fabrics
Made-up goods
Apparel
Total
Jan-Dec 1972 Jan-
Dec 1973!/ % Change
13" 9
160
15
191
290
52
22
45
105
462
729
58
814 1
,224
50
a/ Estimates based on 11 month trade data
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COi?:PO5ITIO OF KONG. .:O::G' S TEXTILE' TR:-.DE
(million US$)
I:?SP0RTS
Jan-Oct 1972 Jan-Oct 1973
% Chancre
Yarn and thread
148
246
66
Fabrics
301
391
30
Made-up goods
25
46
84
Apparel
72
94
31
Total
546
777
42
Yarn and thread
Fabrics
Made-up goods
Apparel
Total
Jan-Oct 1972 Jan-Oct 1973
% Change
[
[
[
[
[
[
[227
[348
[53
[
[
[
[
[
[
922
1,194
30
1,149
1,542
34
IA. ~', *1 ASS"FIED
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