A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT RECENT WORLD INFLATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 40
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2005
• Sequence Number: 64
• Publication Date: September 9, 1974
• Content Type: MF

STAT
Approved For Release 2005/12/14 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
 Approved For ReI~e1?OQ/1 ?114~ C~IAC~PTRg$IZ~Q~01900030064-5
WAStltNc'rorq, D.C. 20!305
9 Scpten~ber 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Sid Zabludoff
Office of t11e Council for
International. Economic Policy
Old Execut.i.ve Office Building
SUBJECT A Preliminary Look at Recent
World Inflation
1. In response to your recent requests, we are
forwarding the attached information for the use of Mr.
Eberle, CIEP Chairman.
2. Table 1 presents data on the actual rates of
inflation in major industrial countries since 1973, as
well as OER's forecasts through mid-1975. Also attached
is A Preliminary Look. at the Causes of Inflation: In?.)ut--
OuL NU"~ r1I1~11y is. This study, prepared In CIuly, uses
Input--output tables to analyze the causes of inflation
over the past two years. We are in the process of updating
the figures for 1974 and will forward the revised study
when it is completed.
3. We will. be happy to answer any further questions
you may have on this subject.
STATE
 Approved For Re1ease(2dQQ5f'lV14 :I pF,( fj lp -W 02 0030064-5
W/Yst t' roru, D.C. 20505
9 September 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Gaza Feketekuty
Office of the Special Repre-?
sent.aLi.ve for 't'rade Negotiations
Old Executive Office Building
SUBJECT A Preliminary Look at Recent
World Inflation
1. In response to your recent requests, we are
forwarding the attached information for the use of Mr.
Eberle, CIEP Chairman.
2. Table 1. presents data on the actual rates of
inflation in major industrial countries since 1973, as
well as OER's forecasts through niid-1975. Also attached
is A Pre.,.i.minarv Look at the Causes of Inflation: InDut-
Otxtput znalvsis. This study, prepared in July, uses
input-cu~-put. tables to analyze the causes of inflation
over the past two years. We are in the process of updating
the figures for 1974 and will forward the revised study
when it is completed.
3. We will be happy to answer any further questions
you may have on this subject.
histributi.on: (S-6447)
Orig & 1 - Addressee
j.ce o - E conomic Researc
Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T 0875R'01198-ZT30'0'G4=-""-^'?", wt ^? IM?rl*Vce ~'R-~,
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
TABLE 1
(Percent Change at Annual Rates)
1973--I
1973-1.1
19 74-I
5.9
9.1
11.0
7.6
8.4
24.7
5.7
7.5
10.2
7.0
9.8
10.1
18.0
13.3
27.6
6.3
C.3
9.3
12.3
16.1
30.0
16.2
23.2
42.7
11.0
19.0 .
28.0
8.1
5.8 -
8.5
8.2
7.0
17.9
.6.8
6.3
6.2
6.0
9.6
14.5
15.0
19.3
43.6
6.2
8.6
'13.0
9.2
9.8
18.2
5.1
11.5.
26.5
.9.7
8.6
13.0
11.7
10.9
19.0
14.3
22.0
51.6
11.9
10.3
15.5
ACTUAL FORECAST
u;ITEl) STATES
c:an~u:3r Prices
~1i:alc sale Prices
G::i' Deflator
C1,,:1:Al~A
Consur:.er Prices
wholesale Prices
GNP Deflator
Consu:er Prices
I,"holesale Prices
GNP Deflator
GE?:'? NY
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
GNP Deflator
FRANCE
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
GNP Deflator
UNITED KINGDOM
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
GNP Deflator
x'I'A.LY
Con.,.u-,,.er Prices
Wholesale Prices
GN11, Deflator
*OECD forecast
,tr
",.17~., .ASSiFf l;: ;,
1974-11 1975-1
9.011, 8.0*
8.2*
6.5*
9.0 8.1
19.9 3.8.2
8.8 8.5
18.0 14.0
14.0 11.0
16.0 12.0
8.0 8.0
10.0 8.0
7.0 8.0
13.6 11.0
10.0 8.0
11.0 8.0
16.0 12.0
15.0 10.0
14.0 10.0
25.5 19.0
25.0 20.0
21.0 15.0
S
ro
pprdved For Release-2065f-12/-44-:-G"DP85TQP875RII 19-o.QQ30064 5
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85'T00875R001900030064-5
p;
A PRELIfIP;ARY LOOK AT
THE CAUSES OF INFLATION
INPUT-OUTPUT RESULTS
;7 V 4a
~`oved For Release 20f1`4.
G?Jr-RDf~?fi
App_b X520800030064-5- ..~ ,~
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDR85T00875R001900630064?-5
~ ..put.--output tables, for 5 major economics -- the United States,
Japan, France; West Germany, and the UK ?-- were decomposed into
2 groups of sectors: an exogenous group whose prices are substan-
tially affected by forces outside the economy, and an endogenous
group whibh is more sheltered from such forces. The exogenous
in an attempt to identify the causes of inflation, the
group consists of agriculture, oil, otrher raw materials, imported
manufactures, and labor. The endogenous group comprises the rest
of the economy.
Each of the input-output tables used in the exercise has a
somewhat different structure.
?For the United States, the table used is the Commerce
Department 87 sector 1967 table.
?For Japan, the table used is the Economic Planning
-Agency 60 sector 1970 table.
?For France, the table used is a 78 sector 1965 table
extrapolated to 1975 by technical experts.
?For West Germany, the table used is a 43 sector 1965
table extrapolated to 1975 by technical experts.
?For the U.K, the table used is a 73 sector 1965 table
extrapolated to 1975 by technical experts.
The technique employed is straight :Forward.. The rows in the.
inverted input-output table for each economy corresponding to the
exogenous sectors were increased by the percent that prices increased
in these sectors. New totals were then calculated-for the sectors in
.
-.1"~Ygr r1R ~'. ~.. ,.I QTR w~..m. ?r S'v .^....,m.xmrrnm-x.a +. za4~FC?t'."~^ , yn
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
rn Europe
rate of price increase slowed considera
w bly in West Germany as =organs were squeezed
? Y s profit
Table 1
Causes of Inflation in WWWh
l
o
esaj Prices
Second Half 1973
Change in
C :olesale A ri
`
imported
cul--
~
Other Raw
Prig:; tu,:e
Oil
Materials
P?ianu-
facture
s
Labor
RCsidual
19.44 25
15
2a -
negl
10
25
13.55 .1
1 4
13
6
20
56
V
3.84 12
78
28
'
90
21
-129
6.29 13
1
34
12
20
20
`Inflation reaches double figures during this period
j "Pr.ice increases were m.
rc:eri y greatest in Japan, reflecting the rise in raw
prices particularly for internationally--traded commodities
,.~or raw r.;ateria :L prices also
did higher atercultural r? contributed to inflation elsewhere, as
prices cutside of west,
-7-.
~` `` AI3praved,F-or-Release-2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875ROO 1960`030II64'-5 +- ~ _+ rv,,~..?~:,-'
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
Table 1
Causes of Inflation in Wholesale Prices
First Half 1974*
;., an
anc~M
;t Germany
Change in
Wholesale Agricul-
Prices ture Oil.
11.15
24
62
17.44 -
-l.
7
8.86
-25
67
6.33
24
75
Other Raw
Materials
Imported
Manu-
factures
Labor
Residu a.
25
negl
27
-38
11
28
24
31
15
16
-11
36
22
25
14 .
-60
("Inflation continues as a major problem
`Rising oil costs become the major factor fueling inflation in all
countries but France
?FR.ising unit labor costs, reflecting sluggish productivity growth in t e
ca1rly phases of a downturn, become an increasingly important factor
outside of West Germany
Approved For Release
r2U~5!'f24 .CIA-R1jP85T~`t~75R~b1~~~030~64?=5`'`~ `~
10,
 Approved For Release 2005/1'2/14 : CIA-RDP85J00875R001900030064-5
Table 2
Causes 0,4 Inflation in1 Final Dem,mnd Weighted Prices
First half .1972
Change in-
Final J : ,and Change
Xmported Rewcightc~
Weight,:4d Acri cul-- Other Raw
Price -tLxe Oil .lateril Manu- Whole-
a s factures Labor sale Pric
percent of total
;i.ted States
1.68
23
1
30
16
30
!p.1n
.35
42
10
-:1.44
. neg
192
rancr-
2.29
24
neg
3
-56.;
129
`'. s t Germany
neg
--~>
cited Kingdom ?
3.33
-2
-4
3
99
ng costs Of imported manufactures, agricultural products, and raw
materials, resulting from dollar devaluation, spurred US prices
Mercer.!41
2.95
2.35
2.77
"UIiglicr unit labor costs V,ere an even more important factor in explaining th
increase in final demand weighted prices in Japan and Fre-ace
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA'-RDP85TG0875R001900030064-5
1414S IR~-
Cause of Inflation in Final Demand .NIeiahted Prices
Change in
Final Dcnand
Weight:.cd Agricul--
Priccc tuns.
percent
Imported
Other Raw Nanu-,
Oil Materials factures
Change
Reweigh ~~:;?~
Whole-
Labor sale Pric.'
The rate of inflation shows a less pronounced acceleration, particularly
in Japan and the Unites. States, reflecting the lower weight given to
agrici tune in final demand weighted prices
 Approved For Release 200/12/14: CIA-RDP65T00875RO619O0030064-5
? r
Change in
Final Demand
Weighteci
Pri ce
Agricu1--
tur. c
Oil
Other Raw
IMaterials
12er.cent
c. States
5.54
36 .
7
Z#3
P
4.95
79
]
-4
4.62
12
1
5
s t Germany
4.10
4
2
10
:t ted Kingdom
4.92
21
11
19
r"L valuation in the United States and the UK boosted the prices of
Imported Rewe~.c :it
2`Tanu-
fac'urcs Labor sale
'
20
41
14
Lhctn:e !
perC r.t !i
102 12.90
..c;riculture continues to be a major factor fueling inflation outside of
h'cstern Europe
Oman 96 1561
.:^.~.?rw-.r.. r.. .:M!'." r Y^.n 1V"`I^^;f,' ~ i, t' \ : v
^^"~ nv%+m;awnrm+vtrr?cunw.m+u:~c..nr:K? , ^~-
..........J ')AAL/A'){A A !'4 A ~I'1~4G. 4a.G ~AAA4AAC.A ,G r~ ~ F "'"' N
MofiiAtiCY7f 7,P
 Approved Fdr Release 2008/12/14: CIA-RDP05T00875R001900030064-5
F. D
Causes o# ln..lat in 'inal Den
end T?~e.ic!ited Prices
Second Half 1973
Change in
Final Dcinanc1
Weighted Agricul-
Pr.icle Other Raw
t?- Oi 1
??Iaterials
? Eercent
'd States 3.03
t C,er:nany 5.55
t_ecI Y,ingdorn 13.45
3 1
t`
37 16
12 23
28
12 42
Change
Rewcight-2.
Whale-
sale Price's
Percent
15.30
12.72
1.29
8.75-
~.i
rate of inflation shows a ~ . ting
11 i.a;. r,r e tit less
g given to raw . Materials rinpfinal demandrweightedf lrices the
P s
ease p--~~DP$~~T~6~6
Imported
Manu-
a ctures Labor
neg
8. 61.-
 Approved For Release 2005112/14: CIA-RDP85J00875R00190g030064-5
Table 2
i r ;`~~~PtIG'u r
Causes of Inflation in Final Demand Weiahted Prices
Fixst Half 1974
:sizcu
f us t .u~~xmany
7.67 -2
3.50 -21
Other Raw
Imported
.~Ianu-
Change ij
Ret~~c~i.y;. , l
t~Thole-
~?~
Oi
l Pdatcriais
factures
Labor sale
r c
ma
,
percent of total.
erce
zt
.
42
15
.17
17 . 5.47
36
?13
neg
33 8.50
13
14
24
51 . 16.92
95
18
32
-24 8.16
nil costs becrd.,.;.. one major factor fueling inflation, but the rate
'Df i.nflation. is much lower because of the smaller weight given to oil
in final demand wei
hLed
~?d ,c,5,?r!iF }~VUt~.?~r..rrv wMT .., r ORIGINAL
Change in
..
j7a1 Demand
Weighted A ricul--
9~
~?: a ce ~__
t r~
~.. percent
ice
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
3.03 8
5.22
Imported
Oth.,a_ Raw ~:anu-
M.at~rials factures
percent of total
1 30 16 30
2 46 14 -70
7 18 10 29
1 36 15 40
42 15 17 17
Resi'.tn1}
Change
?!i
Reweigh tee`
Whole ,'
sale ~yz
1f
tiercerit
2.95
3.45
8.15
7.59
5.47
"Rising unit labor costs were not an important factor in US inflation
`oil br.ycoines an important factor in 1974
.taw, rx ~+... ,.-- ......,?..y
J ~3v~3Ci)V~Ct f'oT" @ase-ZGG&4214 ~5RO QQ.Q.3..Q. 4_._._
aE,r v~ Y .lrNtwriy~n1Lti}I.fiac4,;Y,~T,t:L F. e. nrkaF a y , xal. v11.a ,.ir,..L.!:Li~~. ni i ...sr1 . ,~ ?n. .. Yil 44a
Table 3A l h n ~r ~ n , r,
United States
Cause
of Inflation i. :1 ;;i:olesale Prices
Change in
Wholesale
Other Raw
Imported
11
anu-
Prices ture
0i.].
riai s `:: ;. ~' u re e s
Labor
percent
Uerc:
total
:~i;qe
_~2.95 51
__
J.
41
3.6
.3.45 85
1
21
5
--15
11.23 65
8
20
9
15.
6.29 13
1
34
12
20
6,33 24
75
22
25
14
Causes of Inflation in Final Demand itie?ir;hted Prices
Change in
Final Demand
Weighted Agricul-
Prices ture Oil
percent
1.68 23
.72 108
?5.64 36
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01900030064-5
r .}
. 1.0
-AS 4`1r--t
Table 3B
Jaaan
Causes of Inflation in r:ho.l.csale Prices
Change in
Wholesale
Prices
percent
Imported
Agricul- Other Raw Manu-
ture Oil Materials factures Labor
percent of total change
1)02 cen t
.50
49
15
-243
neg
126
5.24
48
2
3
neg
i73 I
7.95
80
neg
19.44
25
l5
25
neg
10
25
?74 I
11.15
?.4
62
25
neg
27
-30
Causes of Inflation
Change in
Final Demand
Weighted
Price
in Final Demand
Weighted Prices
Imported
Agricul- Other Raw Manu-
ture Oil Materials factures
.
Change i ,h
Rew. eight ~
Whole--
Labor sal.
percent
percent of total
er cerit
972 I
.35
42
10
-144.
neg
192
.34
I II
1.7 8
85
3
neg
8
;.973 1
4.96
79
1
-4
neg
24
7.40
9.40
37
16
.23
neg
24
15.30
:'.974 I
9.69
18
36
13
ne;
33
8.50
"Higher oil and unit labor costs
the chief factor contributing to
infla zic.n
become an important factor this year
i1
POOR ORIGiNAL
.l. ~'~ ~.+3 ~.V ~~ rnl r"e'!
le 11.' _ C%i(,.. r?\t: ,7Frt1.\I.5
22 1 11 PRnrE,,5rI-, rains
36 IV.A i.,n'!,
61 1'/.C . F,1r^.IC.\'tn SHAPES
63 V. 1% C1+5111r..\+.5
5'3 Y.P. RIIC~;tr,.^,
52 '$1.A FIl:f^S, '!,\+'.1!
53 VI C CI, r1i:!I'i ; F1: 5
S9 V1.0 LE.1i!+F.f M' fS
63 VII 1717A:) "W..I!r.TS
72 '/111.A ;,C?",I., I;:DI .. TnIAL
73 VIII.R ELrCT;tlc
7r, VI II.C Tr.1!!.rO1T
32 VIII.n ' PrMSiv1 1!lSTltl!ItEUTS
83 VII I . E 1115r. RA'WFACTlJRF
to
IX Coll:,71IL?CTI,?'1
90 x UT I L I T I ES
9S XI.A TCA':5:"1!!T
102 XI.R C11'?c'I!tIC :T 1'111
1113 X!.C 7187.111.
104 XI.0 P:1'11,I5'fi'I , P!!1!tTll+r
.110 XI.J OTILZ. SERVICES
120 L".Onn
*Based on price changes through April.
I'M
Percent Ch,1n?.)e in Snrtor C'nit Output Prir.r.!,
Tor?nI,
17. +:17
120.6?5
60.0"9
31.396
.14. 23q
5.202
13. 4.13
54
1. 376
13.238
10.540
11.071
9.0(14
10.570
11.526
S. 133
6.4913
7.406
0. 123
10. 160
11.437
19.495
10.729
4.849
G. 488
7.294
5.7U5
6.990
turai 1?laLurial Cr:ul`? c)il Unit Labor
Prires _ !'rice : Costs
12.911 0.230 2.742 1.6CE
0.245 0.241 117.706 2.490
0.206 0.133 66.620 1.460
0.551 21.184 0.31E 3.345
8.299 C.585 3.03C 2.320
3.190 0.120 0.771 1.121
0.3u3 5.068 5.140 2.e52
C.442 7.805 5.597 3.210
0.376 2.179 3.43E 3.615
1.132 . 0.836 8.173 2.597
2.376 0.520 4.11E 3.536
3.682 0.330 3.566 3.493
2.1611 0.298 2.725 3.062
3.504 0.417 3.134 3.515
4.719 0.431 ' 3.210 3.166
0.350 1.513' 2.863 3.403
0.555 1.007 2.928 3.2CE
C.457 1.392 2.639 3.490
0.705 1.245 2.435? 3.65E
1.525 0.7 co 4.704 3.189
C.0l;0 3.303 3.863 3.453
0.709 0.656 16.142 2.0x6
0.205 0.249 6.072 4.203
0.159 '?' 0.002 0.781 3.825
4.314 0.171 2.590 3.405
1.443 0.250 1.670 3.081
0.973 0.33.8 1.568 2.911
0.0 ? 0.0 0.0 6.990
-2 4 --
1?0.0 Y t V, to 7 \.,J
OF *
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030064-5
Impact of Changes in Exogenous Prices
on Unit. Output Prices in France
Partial Sector Results
1972 F'irst Half
Percent Ch.nc?e in Rn.cl.nr Unit Outnut
Prior; =T.-to '; .ir".oN in
Other i~aw
factor Crude Oil !:atcrial Unit Labor tural
tlcinhk Total Prices Pricis' Ccsts t'ricca
1
16
17
10.
22
34
30
40
41
43
Sc
52
SC
59
C3
72
73
76
V2
C3
CG
90
95
102
103
104
110
120
1.G'1CULTJ'IC/rwirrT^.Y
I
)1.C.1 ' Mm C, I'r TI';:? L rf.s
11 c.2 "MIT") ttCn r':nrl'CTS
11 .0 rxnr. itt! "/TE :iALS
Itl rnoCEZSEn FOOTS
1 1 1. 1 T'I t C C'1
I V. r !1111-r C':"^''
V.C F/.C::ICf.TC) 5111PES
V. 11 C'i.:'l GALS
V.8 1.Urr" .
VI .A FI Err. 5, Yf^11
VI.C CLt)T!11w. rl''s
Vl.n Lr:.Tt!E: r. r)rZ
VII 11000 r.'..O"UCTS
V1il.,. tr?1., I):r.UST:IAL
VIII.C ELF.CT'IC
VIII .C T :t1t.10.".T
VI i I .0 P .ECI SI Ol! I CCT T.-EtfT0
VIII .E t11 N. t:f:'UFA.CTW E
IX C6r'ST':UCTi01:
k UTILITIES
XI ./: T; Ali0P3rtT
X1.0 Cn11t:Jr! t CAT I k'1!!
XI.C t,;1ALESf,LC, CCTAIL
XI.I1 rUELSi!11r:C, r;ll'Titlc
XI.J 7T)ICi SC^ViCE!
? Lr.GOr;
37.1L4
0.1' 7
6.752
6.11;1
90.136
X82
10.657
4.241
6.550
29.51)3
1.9'13
j ?15.753'
16.186
9.420.
11.759
55.975
23.175
39.751
5,50
S.2L3
.132.756
11.010
1 23.718
2.744
117.068
7.662
265.914
6.6'19 -0.004 0.025 1.3,,7 ' 5.272
1.409 -0.502 C.C40 1.840 0.030
2.321 252'C47- 2:46) 0.061
5.030 -0.C09 1.761 3.240 0.047
4.637. -0.C04 0.029 2.715
1.167 -0.001 0.005 0.668 0.494
3.'710 -0.009 - 0.238 3.427 0.044
2.751 -0.008 0. 190 2.542 0.027
-. 3.595 -0.006 0.068 3.492 -'-"0.041
3.414 .014 0.082 3.177 0.170
3.409 -0.012 - -- 0.054 3.233 0. 134
3.906 -0.005 0.032 3.287 0.592
3.630 '-0.C0) 0.019 3.347 0.275
3.669 -0.004 ? 0.020 3.329 0.324
-3.570'-'" 0.006'-'-'-"0.039 -2.979 0.559'
3.71'1 -0.005 0.051 3.651 O.C42
3.762 -C.COS 0.069 ?"` 3.638 0.060
3.815 -0.C05 0.061 3.704 0.055
3.683 ?'-0.003 """' 0.047 3.608 ..."'.0.032
2.821 .-0.004 0.036 2.685 0.105
3.637- 0.004"""0,148 3.435 o.050-
2.450 -0.015 0.084 2.362 0.C2C
?4.107 "'-'=0.013 0.031 ""-"4.043""0.0u6
4.826 -0.001 ?0.005 4.815 0.000
2.626 -0.003 ....... 0.013 2.551 0.029
4.039 -0.004 0.016 3.866 0.130
_'-3'.'100'-- =0.002 '0.015"-'2;ES1-'-"07157
6.600 0.0 0.0 61600 0.0
1.97.2 Second Half
1
1C
17
13
22
31,
SL
t0
41
43
50
52
50
S'3
C3
72
Percent Char.^e in Sector Unit Cutnt
Price _o Cha7- r.
Otner Raw I+5_2CU:-
Crudo Oil 2lat
ri
)
it L
U
b
e
a
.
n
a
or tural
Total Prices Prices Costs Pricw~
fG::ICL'LTL'^Elrnt:C:T^Y 10.811 0.016 0.072 1.573 9.151
C1.L'. r, WIf Tt." f.l rA 1 4.396 1.816 0.117 2.10E 0.055
' .(I1!C' rnrUCTF 3.966 ~-' 0.910 0. 136 2.804'-.0.116
CX^r. "Al.: i:r rc u; LS 8.805 0.034 5.024 3.661 0.096
P;.cCCSSE.? r?C7.r5 .7.096 0.015 0.095 2.166 - 9.030 -
T!)^.: CC) 1.6A9 0.002 0.014
I110t','TC#L V. 695 0.030 0.718
1106:-f C'2 ;nt:S 3.521 0.029 0.551
1'ArIlUTE0 511APES 4.211 0.021"-"'0.198
Ch' 1 I Cf. L S. . . . 4.191 0.052 0. 2 31
I:USCr:t 4.090 0.043 0. 157
rI I:'.5, Y,.'! 1- 4.099 0.018 0.093
CLCT:tII!r rur:s - 4.147 0.012 0.055
I.C/T'IC:: r',V3.1s 6.419 0.013
'
!10ri I
nr.UCTC 4.524 0.022
1,1^..61., I?Ir'UST' II.L 4.753 0.019
CLCC.T'IC 4.423 C.C19
Ti`:.I1 M111' 4. 46, 1 0.018
r^ECISIor is:"?T Ci IT: 4.268 C.012
!:1 .'r. :tf1Ur1.CIL^C
Cnt' ST::UCTI V.
UTiTIC
T,~:.11!:10,
C':::'L::1 C:.-1011
^I"LI:Sf LE, CCT;.1 t.
r:trl.lilit:r., r^IUTIUG
OTHER StPVjCEn
AppTy;d' For Releasg 2
0.774 0.899
3.066 0.000
2.092 0.049
`~-_"3.9 36 --.0.075--
3.55; 0.31:
3.654 0.244
r- 312 1.076
3.779 0.502
--'0.114 '3.375 "'"1.014 --
0. 149 4.110 0.C76
0.200 4.095 0.110
0.170 4.167 0.1CO
0.136 4.062? 0.058
3. 761 0.016 0. 1.0'3 3.050 0. 192
'4.425 0.0160.429-'--3.074 '"0.106'-"
3.025 0.054 0.242 2.692 0.036
4.753 0.0u6 0.091 - '_ 4.5)3 --- O.oA3?
_ S.391 0.003 0.015 5.359 0.014
7.1137 0.011 O.C29 "- 2.946 '-"0.051
4.619 0.013 0.047 4.343 0.737
"3.609'--"0.009 r 0.043 3.270 1"0:754 7.2
23 0.0 0.0 7.223 .0.0
^..
 ? Approved We6A; 269651154~4' : &46P&T T59W~?0630064-5
on unit Output Price: in France
Partial Sector ttcsults
1973 First Hal`
CL:71II;0
; .~
19.E/.T'IC:1 t'c~S
1:c . f ^QrUL'TS
CLFCTI l.:
F ;:CI CIC0?? 1:'ST'.~'!E!'75
? ?' L'^E
C^.1:5T t:CTI01' ?
UTILITIES
C1;!' 1 C. T 10:'
,LC'fLF, ^ETi.IL
PUCLSIHI::^, P:IIITI':c
'"1=1 SC. SIC-ES
Frrc?+ CS. in siqtTr unit Ouutn,.i?
1
16
17
15
22
34
3C
to
43
SO
52
CG IX
90 X
95 XI./.
102 YI.0
103 XI.C
104 X1.0
110 XI..)
120
72 V1II.P.
73 VIII.8
7G VIII.C
E2 VIII.0
03 VIII.E
59 VI O
C3 VII
1 I
16 11.0.1
17 11 C.2
is 11.0
22 It1
34 It1.1
36 I V. Is.
40 IV.C
41
43
so
52
S9
C3
72
73
76
IV.C
V. 1.
V.S
VI A
VI .C
VI .1%
VII
VI II.A
v111.3
VI II.C
52 VIII.D
E3 VI II.E
CG :
00 X
05 xi . ~.
1C2 ..I.G
10; xI.C
1Cl xl.n
110 xI.J
1:0
crtd'a Oil
Total Pri`as
7.456 ' 0.019
5.371 7.19;
11.533 C.C51
6.012 0.013
1.693 C.C)3
6.416 0.037
4.091 0.035
5.P.43 C.C25
5.608
? . 5.536
5.993
"5.697
5.110
-' 5.535
6.038
6.076
'f. 117
5.930
0. 061 0.314
0.')52? -. 0.2CE
0.0:2 0.123
-` 0.01:1 0.073
C.C1!i 0.078
C.C21 0.151
O.C23 0.197
O.C23 0.265
0.022 0.236
C.Ct4 0.180
ASSI ED
!: t.eriol L'a_ Labor ti: 131
! , - I _oS C., t; P ,a
0.095 2.253 5.01?)
0.155 3.003 0.034
0.130 ---3.967 0.C7C
6.353 5.137 0.052
0. 1 12 3. 0 0 4 2. 7 97
0.019 1.117 0.541
0.947 S.4 13 0. (49
0.720 4.099 O.G29
0.263 '-5.509 0.045
4.578 0.019 0.137 ? 4.306 0.116
-"6.076'- 0.019-0,568"- 5.4255--0.064'
4.223 C.CE5 0.321 3.913 0.022
6.535 0.C56 0.121 5.30E 0.050
7.431 0.0Ce 0.02r 7.398 0.OC9
4.245 0.013 0.03'. 4. 163 "'0.031
6.275 0.115 0.062 6.054 0.143
4.901 C:b10 tl.057'"-~'4:617 0.217'
9.799 0.C-.~0.0 9.759 0.0
1973 Second Half
/.c^I CULT; ^t/rc-EST^.Y
c"U'1E, 1:l. T1:?.i.L CPS
iC'i!:'.'1 r^.C' t'C7S
CX^r. /'' ??!TE''I/.LS
T'
11: CT Er 1.
? Ff.^'.ICLTE t IPPE'<
vi C?'IC!LS
!:Urr r;,
FI rZ''S, Y/`!I
CL'1TII :r. runt
E: T' r^.:,rS
t.r,7ti r: i%C%
LEC:'.IC
^~CCI SIC'I
C^':ST.: ;~T loll
UTILITIE
IC.TIC'
.t. rtiz "ETP.IL
,1T!Ir.: SE.VICCS
M"07:
Total
0.514
41.526
- 22. 092
28. 395
1.720
0.608
-'-7.585
5.944
Perc :t Chance in sect= unit Output
Frio S U_e 70 - = s in
7-3 13 -r11 a W in '.n r
Prices Cas.,. t,.' c_a
C.350 ' 0.395 1.298 1.?_C?~
35.115 0.644 1.718 -0.010
0.745'--2.:49 =0.022..-.
G.757 24.775 2.079 - 0.016
0.319 0.466" 1.763'--'-0.647 -
0.CE5 0.079 0.651 -0. 16?
O.E93 3.091 3.026 ' -'0.015
0.5.11 _ 2.997 2.315. -0.009
'0.492' `1.086 -"`3.077 "`;; 0 .C14
1.164 1.299 2.029 -0.050
-~ 0.962 0.061 2.874 '--'-0.01+6
0. ?139 0.510 2.916 -0.2CC
C.202 0.305 2.964 '-'--0 . 094
0.791 . 0.322 2.549 -0 110
5.233
5.652
3.626
3.436
3.444
3.5919
4.42?)
-_.4.6'11
4.fOG
4. 165'
3.316
'5.703
4.732
5.C30
4.211
2.74 5
C. 4137 0.62L1 2 .571 -- =0. 199
0.479 0.1115 3.200 -0.014
0.:13
C.o13
0.263
C.?;)
C. th9
1.21?:
1..C?6
C.'72
C.219
3.F50 C.2P5
2.961 0: 191
5.759 0.0
1.094 3. 150 _..-0.021
0.975 3.213.0 -0.019
0.746 ? ' 3.1EC' --O.C11
5.C44 0.187
5.127 0. 1,9
5.707 0.646
5.29E 0.3C3
5.25.9 0.355
0.749 0.609
5.742 0.046
5.722 0.007
5.919 0.C61
5.67A. '-" 0 0'S
1. )70 2. 16! -0.007
0.505 " 3.x97 -0.016
O.C82 4.CS9 -0.CC3
0.161 ' 2.355 -- z0.01C
0.259 3.3', -0.045
0:237 2:601 =0.007"'
0.0. ..- ._.5.259---.._.0.0.,__-
4..:-OA.-f WAU 5R0019000300645-"`?"^
 Approved For 2~0Wt.121& n~I R4Pn8 ~,0RV51ggq1~( Q -5
on UniL? Out:,.Diit Prices in France
Partial Sector Results
19.74 L irst Half*
*Based on price changes through 'latest available month.
.__ nAAlr/An/A I _ /11n I?'.1111"'{~`1L ~AAA~w hNPlYII
1 I AG!1IC'.tLTU!t[/F^';L:7:Y
16'11.0.1
C".u,:L, tt.TLf:..L G/S
17 1 1C . 2 P.[i? I I::C' f ^ : t 1 f.
IS I II) rx'-c . 21,;1 './.1'!:.:I/,L c
22 111
PRCn:Et?SC:' Foo:'.?
34 111. 1
T:;C. CC
3C I..A -
I%')",STCL
40 IV.P.
I'^:;-FF.,:-IUS
41 IV.C
F/.f^.IC/.TLC S:I/PES
43 V.A
CI IFfICA LS
50 V.4
:UCCLi;
52 VI A
F I I'm
Y1.^,II
SQ /I.C
CLf1IIt:C
run!
59 VI .D
LE1.1:!Lr
!'r3r
G3 VI 1
fU CT!
72 VIII.A
P.C..1., I:ICU#T':tt.L
73 VII I.C CLLCT^IC
7G VIII..-Ec;PC AT
72 III.D P^.;:.r f: 1t::T" '1L::T5
t3 VIII . E N I ;r. !::,tlUFI,C T'!,E
:G I X Cn:iI1!:I:C T 1 O:!
90 X UTI LITIEC
95 X1./. T:,.fV51T,"T
102 XI ?/ CC?I'::i I'I ChTI~'!
103 XI C 'l:I'Irrtr.L, iLT:.:L
We XI.:, i''I.LLIIiI:!f,, F1::111::;
110 XI.J :Tarn. CCP.VIC.5
120 LAC01.
Percy-nt Chnnn
e
in Sector Unit Outn
r
t
_
_
t
~~> L'rtcr_ G' Co Cti~:t_e
s
ln
-
_
1.673 0.710
G1
0.4115 1.961
-1. u'
. )G5 57,960
-'?
0,721 2.504
-0.010
30. 533 34.352
28. 270 1
548
' ` 0.076'--`3.365
22
4
=o.
011
.
'4
3
63 4.2
.
0. C 16
.0
0 O.Gg7
1
0.524 ""-2.651
-0 .832
.010 0.095
10 .14
1.777
0.089 0.
990
4
237
??0.1c
.]
D CC 57
1
.
4.495
-0.015
.312
-,-'
3.292 3.462
6.756 0.907
7
973
-"' 1.216"4.568
--0.C14
.
2.169
"
1.449 4,211
-0.057
7
7. 160 1.967
0.966 4.275
-0
05
5.535 0.019
0.574 4
336
.
1
-0
S. 195 0
5JA
.
0
343
.
95
.
r
5
222
.
4.405
-0.092
.
0.583
0.363 4
304
S-498"--0.999
6.523
0.077
.
"0:702 3.901
0.915 4
745
-0.108
-0.1a
_4'
6.791 0.057
6
71
.
1.225 --"q. 710
-0.014
-O.C;O
.
0 0.042
6
0
' ` ?
1.052 4.003
-0.019
.
54
0.540
0.039 4.69.7
-0.011
4.961 0.724
7
744
r'
C.G38
3.6 34
-0.0 5
.
0.715
7
193
2
47
2.589 4.504 -
`-0.019
.
_
.
5
_ 7
010
? 1.493 3.2422 -Q.OC7
?-??
'?"--"
.
2.091
0.564
S. 170 -'
6
27
-0.015
.
8 0.148 0.053 5.970
11
?'"'".
-0.003
.193
C.409 0.102'---3
521. '
-0
0
.
5.817 0
588 0
29
.
09
.
.
2 4.900
4:1172
-0.043
7.646 0.0 - 0.0 7.646
0.0
 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T00875ROO190Q030064-5
Impact of Changes in Exogen'ou: Prices
on Unit Out ?ut Prices in N'cst Germany
Partial Sector Results
1.972 First Half
I.JN(I-y1 SJ " END
? ?,-rcent C.h~nne in Secrpr Unit Odor! 11:.r,es
hector
V2idht
? Total
Unit Labor
Co'tts
L?ural '
-
z.
Crude oil vN
-, si w
, n4 crria1
1 I
to"ICI t
T'I'tr/;:cwgC Y
:
c s
Prices
F?r'ces
I
1
.
'
20.523
S
102
-0
'
5
I.C
rET
:nLC:::'r?:.
11.561
.
-2.070
.130
-1
908
0.055
0
04
-n.
304
5.431
^
8.29:
1
609
.
-0
.
2
-A.244
0.040
22
1 11
P?
.fc1;r:E^ FOC^S
'-
'
??93.007
.
1
CS7
,162
-0
1
2.058
-0.372
0.03G
34
1 1 1.1
T
.r.; CC
.
8.273
.
.
21
0.053
-0.515
2
250
36
IV.A
1: I.",STEEL
? 9,55'
0.253
-0
559
-n.0".9
n.n14
-n.171
.
0.439
40
IV.s
4
f27
.
-0.172
0.345
-0.1:75
0
052
41
IV.C
r
r; '';I:/.TE: ClIt.PFc
'
.
Ir,.571
-n?455
-0
574
-0.110
-0
0
0.3:?
-0.730
.
0.093
43
V.P.
C!E:
IC: LS
411.E32
.
n
.
94
0,14;
-n.r.92
0.063
30
5
Y. s
V
r..; r:'t:::
1.937
-
.)99
-0
727
-0.135
-0
096
-0.012 ,.
0.219
2
Sc
I .P
Vt.C
FI t: y" I"!
CL.'. ,ICC rLms
20.007
21
763
.
-0.567
-0
.
-0.067
0.138
0.0;11
-0,097
-n.R84
0,129
J.t04
SO
VI D
LE: T?IE'' r-:7^?S
.
0
206
.949
-0
-0.044
0.035
?-+,102
0.162
C3
VII
!imn r::n^I:CTS
.
G4s
?I7
.671
n
-0.072 -
0.052
-1.035
0.444
772
VIII.t
io':I., I1:^t::r 1lL
.
66
-
.37p
0.096
0.130
-0.752
0
399
7.3
VIII.
:I.ECT:1C
.036
39
403
-0.434
0
-0.091
0.10n
-0.510
.
0.0GIS
7G '/I II.C
T.:!': ,T
.
56
361
-
.430
-0
-0.074
0.137
-0.571
0.073
12. V 1 1 I . 0
r"Ec1 r i o t '
11!ST%'!'EIITS-
.
11
766
.647
-0.135
0.1.1
-0.727
0
034
33 VJ I I.E
::I Sr. ;?;.::'TACTt:rE
.
10.427
-1.023
-0
799
-0.067
0.113
-1.140
.
0.066
'6 IX
20 z
CrVC7':UCT10::
UTIL
138.400
.
-0.140
-0.055
-0.054
0.0-13
0
227
-0.924 0
-0
370
.093
ITIEC
8.563
-0.397
-0
159
.
0
.
0
.057
1C2 XI .9
C~t'I'U':IC/?TIC!:
.27.,00
-0.652
.
-0.733
.235
0.0:,1
-0.529 0
-0.471 0
.055
060
103 XI
C
t"CLE
29.507
0.354
-0.n9:
0
035
-0
447
.
.
104 XI
R
Y/LC, rETAIL
FJRLIS'III:I
^
05.394
-0.137
-0.0143
.
0
022 '
.
0
-0
233
.357
.
110 XI
J
, P1111TIH
,
0TIIE !:
4.605
-0.949
-0.062
.
0
03::
.
0
-1
023
.071
.
120 LA-OR
E:VICES
:223.$07.
-x.502
-2.055
-0.083
o.0
.
O,n50
0.n
.
0
-0.533 0
-2.055 0
.C52
.074
.D
1972 Second Half
Percent Chance in S2ctor Unit Output Yric,+s
1 1 A"..ICULTI;ZE/FnRE!-T-Y
15 1I.C PET:OLCU'!,G S
18 11.0
22 1 1 1 P.^.nC ES F00-S
34 111.1 T;.;.'CC'1
3C I V.? : r,R::,CTCEL
h0 1V.a vi:!-rE:?^CS
41 IV.C r,:I:^?ICGTE'1 5'Ir.PES
43 V.I. C:IEI:t I./Lr
so `/ n ;U:" r C.;
52 f .A 11 rr':c, Y:..'.:1
58 VI .C CL^T1ilrr, rut",S
59 VI n LE/T'IE': rn:1n~
C3 VII t:3.^.r P;0^tJCT:
72 VI II.A t!:'1Ufl I/.L
73 VIII. CLECT".1C
76 VI 1 I .C T ::::rr,',T
?2 VII 1.0 r :CI SIC.'! I r3T';l'YEIIT13
33 VI I I.E :'I CC !:/::JF:.CTJ::E
86 IX CI!!'"-T'!UrT10II
70 X UTILITI:S
95 XI ./. T`/.:::rrrT
102 X1.0 I.^t;",Jl:IC/.TI^t'
103 XI C I':JLC:t LE, ?^ET:IL
106 XI D P140 SI II I, P^.I r'TII1C
110 XI J I:TIIE.:t SE::V4CES
220 L/.IOR
Unit Agri_ul- t:?r
Labor tu-
? Total Costs Fria Crude Oil aat_rial
Price J Prices
7.265 C.C 7.223
0.2A a -0.023 O.C65
0.0 0.356 -0.350 G.C50
3.126 C.C 0.114_"'=0.029'-._.?- 2.uC2-
3.073 -0.022 0.075
0.6113 12 0.0
-0:553-"' 0.117 -0.035 0. 16
C: C.._."-_' 0.1111 0. 0 3 1 0. 4 7 a-
0.466 C.0 0.129 -0.02C 0.356
0.247 0.0 0.r.sn -0.017 0.176
0:503 6
32 -c -C 0.301 -0.024'---n, ".23-
0. 0.0 0.176 -0.017
E' D.090 0.0 0. 5
0:250 3.221 -0.012 0. 03 7 7
77
C.0 0.775.--.-C.OCN-"'.
0.613 0.0 0.614 -0.013 00.C~i
0.666 0.0 0.552 . 1
`0:194 p;0 -0.017 0.120
0.258 0.0 0:v71 0.010" o Ii _
0.258 0.0 0.1;0 -0.012 0.163
-07220-7--c 0.11" -0.024 0. ;:.c
:0 C.^. 01.- __ 0. I(.C-
0.225 C.0 C. 135 -0.010. 0. C';9
0.1%7 0.0
'.0 .340 0 .+9u -0.012 0.270
O.Og2 C.0 0. e?.; _ .-0.0?r. . 7.~
0.0 0 .f04 -0.051 0.::49
1.207 0.0 1. 1.42 -0.016
-0.117 C.C ?nJ;4'-- 0.c41
0.169 -0.009 -C1. 1.26-'
0.0 0. !?G -0.011 0.Cu5
0.146 0.0 0leJ -0.01f 0.000
--28_
UNIQ.ms
:J? f 4'.:JJ 7
~~
ail
1.,. ?'1 `1 r;tl',,'L?y~N"t-'~rC* ?.~?.?,.?n n ?T~^.,.+r,? ., .:?.,;....-,--`. is ,,......... _ P I I ~~'
ReJea;a~2DQ V. 4 CIA-RD085T008'1 ft 0
r .+y. 1+N^t^?= ~x ,..-... ,....,,q~an,~??r~v~.arc?~,ra~a^ars~~~~t+"~~'4F'iaa~ ` 1~,
A:~' If. t ~, ~' +l.l 8v~.' _ .,VV ~ ::r' ~ .'d1 w l~. ~'.T ri }M1 +Fwp;' ~ ~.~. ~~~"'~1 ~ :.C ti ~u y. ?~''~I J
 ,Approved For Release 2005/12/14 : Z:l4~$%40('875R001900030064-5
Impact of Changes in. Exogenous Prices
oi) Unit Output: Prices in '.;es t Germany
Partial Sector Results
1973 First Half
Verccnt C!tanc': in
U KLAS F f)
Sector Cnit C?.,tnut Pric'+
to ill
Total
Unit AL-or tural
Cost: P: 445
1
I
!,C IC'itT':':r/fr.lEST':Y
3.296
1.018 1.971
15
II.C
rET:nIr's
2.503
C.?19 C.016
28
11.D
Ex9C. :?; TE"If.LS
8:u46
C.035
22
111
r OCE!CZt' FCO':S
2.920
1.727 0.872
34
111.1
7.'CI Crn
0.1318
C.57C C.177
-
3G
I V.!
I r;.., :TEE.
4.51a
2:9=3
-C:333
40
I V.:1
':'-FE':^^.
'3.668
2.479 4.038
k1
I V.C
Ft':I C, TF1 S'I;.PCS
2.517
7.321 0.026
43
V.!.
C!IE.'IC!LE
-2:433'
1.579 'C.0?9
50
V.8
nUC".fn
3.638
3.411 O.C52
52
VI A
F1 Y/^.:1
3.294
2.9:4 0.123
53
VI C
CLfT':II:G FI:"S
?3,g37
2.714 C.066
59
VI .a
LEtT7!E': rTC^S
"
4. 109
3.691 C.179
C3
VII
1:0114 F::O''IiCTS
3.252
-
?
2.627 C.161
72
VIII.A
!^^I., II:'U:.'T'.I;?L
.162
2
1.7:7 C.l27
73
VI11.~
rL'_CT'IC
2.492
1.914 0.032
7G
!111.4
T.:!.::;rr
3,046
.'.442 0.434
C2
VIII .0
F .CC I !:131: JNST,7-EI!TS
-11:341-3.?73' C. 027
: . 3
VI I I.E
::I C. !1SCF1.CTI' :E
3.1449
? 3.110 0.040
:.G
IX
C"I:ST-.UCTIO:'
2.124
1.734 C.C27
90
X
UTILITIES
'x.765
1.772- C.C27
95
X1 .l.
T::l.I:!;F.7rT
1.969
1.576 0.025
102
X1.0
CCIS':I,::IC: T1011
2.034
1.497 C.142
103
XI.C
;I`LEr,LE,
':.IL
0:922
0.778 4.029
1Ci XI .n
I'VE LI'^:11: P.IVTIu8
3.666
3.444 0.040
110 :I J
OTHER SE7VICES
2.092
1.604 0.030
--
1.0 LA10
6:994
6.994
`0.0
1973 Second Half
Approved orFe"Iase?2005f f2i1 ff5R0KUU1L6LV,(1fi1flff"A~--
11
15 II.C
10 II.D
22 111
31 If 1.1
3G I V.A
60 IV.B
41 IV.C
%3 V.1.
so V. r.
S2 VI.1.
5C VI.C
52 VI.D
C3 VII
72 VIII.!.
73 VI 11.*.
7C VI II.C
L2 VIII.D
C3 VIII.E
t G I X
9D X
,is x 1 .'1
102 X1..3
103 X1 C
1:4 X1.0
110 XI.J
120 Ll.COr2
AGPI CULT1'.^?E/FORESTRY
PETroLC'-j:',rt.S
EX^R. .^.G'' :'ITr''.11LL
P.OCE SSE" F01-IS
Tit; CC'
M0:1,:TEFL .'
r'n1:-rE?:,"::s
Fi?.'IC;.TES GI::PE5
C!IE;IIC..L:
~U~rcr
1 iC Y..
CL^T.:11:R FL's.'
LEI-PIE'! r''P75
1:OM1 r ?0rvrT.,
!r.!1., I1'rUSTlIAL
r:I.ECT".1 C
l!'t P"1T
r :Lc I _10:' I I:1. T"u"C::T
Sr. '?Ir:t.r;.CT'.^E
COI:sir. cTIC::
1111 LIT) E
7 . - .1 .1 , :r:ZT
CV:Cx: 14:110::
1- I-,LE!;Lr, ^.'Tl It
rurL1 P^.ICTII:C
OTHE:. SEIVICF r
Cr:!e Oil 1:--teri.11
i-:C'? P?'i Ceii
C.1C1 0.196
1.5:2 0. 149
0. 127 '7: 035_
G.CS` 0.226
0.423 C.C49
0.13?_ '1.4C2-
MSG 1.C05
0.07; 0.527
-0.1';E-u.169-
0. 075 0. -: 92
_0.'53 0.215
0.0 3 4 ?--? 0.12 3-
0.056 0.164
0.075 0.'!#9
0.C71 C 257__"
0.05E 0.469
0. 10! 0.466! ?
_0.C52 D.419
0.043 0.296
3.CSC O.PCI
- 0.132 0.935-
0.221 C. 147
3.471 0.124
-0.337 0.078-
0.348 0.135
0.069 0.178
0.0 0.0,-
Percent Chance in S?ctor Unit Output Pr-;: