Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP80-01601R000700110001-4
Body:
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Approved For Release 2007/10/23 :CIA-RDP80-016018000700110001-4 ATINTL_
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Tt1 other circumstances a threat of civil. war in
Madagascar would get little attention from the rest
of 1,he world. The island republic has racial, tribal and
regional problems similar to those of many young nations
aP Africa and Asia. But in this period of deep Soviet
military penetration and of expanding Chinese. initiatives
in last Africa, what happens in Madagascar-situated
in the Indian Ocean along the ail-tanker routes from thQ
Middle East takes on much greater significznce.
For the moment President Tsiranana seems to have
headed off civil strife by dissolving his Government and
giving full powers to the army chief, General Rama
nantsoa. But opposition to Mr. Tsiranana is now so
intr:nse that he may have to give up even his figurehead
presidency. He seems unlikely in any event to play a
significant role in bringing the country together again.
T'he current trouble was touched off by university stu-
dents, demonstrating for sweeping educational reforms;
including the de-emphasis of French culture. When work-
ers joined the students the situation shot out of control
and 34 died. But Mr. Tsiranana's decline began last year
with a, revolt in the impoverished south which, though
brutally suppressed, resulted in the detention oP ttte
popular President, Andre Resampa.
Mr. Tsiranana accused Mr. Resampa of plotting with ~
the American G.I.A.-a charge he later withdrew in favor
of accusations of Chinese involvement. It is doubtful
that the national unity for' which General Ramanantsoa
has appealed can ba achieved without the restoration of ,
Mr,. Resampa to placate the south. The only certainty is
that the general's efforts will be watched with anxiety
' in many world cagitals, Washington included. :,~
Approved For Release 2007/10/23 :CIA-RDP80-016018000700110001-4