AN OPEC OBITUARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000100020054-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 10, 2008
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: January 18, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85T00153R000100020054-0
* I MEMORANDUM FOR: .C I
I recommend to you the attached article on
.OPEC. It's a first-rate analysis.
Harry Rowen
C/NIC
Attachment
cc: DDCI
.NIO/E
Date 18 Jan 83
IOUS
FORM USE 55-75 101 EDITIONS
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 Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000100020054-0
Editors
Irving Kristol and Nathan Glazer
Publisher
Warren Demian Manshel
Publication Committee
Martin Feldstein (on leave)
Harry Kahn
H. J. Kaplan
Harry McPherson
Daniel P. Moynihan
Robert A. Nisbet
Leo Rosten
Martin E. Segal
Stanley Simon
Arthur L. Singer, Jr.
Roger Starr
Paul H. Weaver
James Q. Wilson
Executive Editor
Mark Lilla
Managing Editor
Thomas J. Main
Assistant Managing Editor
Rachel Flick
Assistant Editor
Tod Lindberg
Assistant to the Editors
Rita Lazzaro
Consulting Editor
Michael Andrew Scully
Editorial Office
10 East 53rd Street, N.Y. 10022
Subscription Department
The Public Interest
20th & Northampton Sts.
Easton, PA 18042
Newsstand Distributor
Bernhard DeBoer, Inc.
113 E. Centre St., Nutley, NJ 07110
An
OPEC
obituary
ARLON R. TUSSING
T the end of 1981, oil prices
were suffering their greatest decline in half a century, but many
industry executives and forecasters cautioned that the attendant
"glut" was a temporary phenomenon. Despite many signals to the
contrary, that opinion .persisted well into 1982, with Occidental's
Chairman Armand Hammer and others predicting $100-per-barrel
oil in ten years. The "scarcity" mentality that fed the price leaps
of 1974 and 1979, plus a belief that unpredictable Middle Eastern
ers control the world oil market through OPEC, gave such assump-
tions nearly axiomatic status during the past decade. But the ex-
porting nations' boast that "oil in the ground is a better investment
than money in the bank" is turning out to be so much wishful
thinking.
The truth is that neither an end to the recession, nor OPEC at-
tempts at production quotas, nor continued wars in the Middle East,
will long be able to shore up a sagging crude-oil market. It is, in-
deed, because oil prices climbed so rapidly and so high in the 1970s
that they are now almost certain to fall and keep falling-perhaps
as steeply and as far as they rose. Today's prices are still higher
than markets can tolerate, and the forces that led to the enormous
price hikes of the past decade work just as effectively in reverse.
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 Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85T00153R000100020054-0
While real (constant-dollar) crude-oil prices are unlikely to rise
to their 1980-81 levels again in this century, forecasting prices for
any specific future year is a nearly hopeless task. The fall in crude-
oil prices that began last year will eventually give way to another
price rise, another decline, and so on. For crude-oil markets are
inherently cyclical and, except during a unique period of almost
four decades when the state of Texas dominated both U.S. and
world crude-oil markets, oil-price fluctuations have been large and
frequent. History shows us no long-term oil-price trends, but only
a series of cycles of uneven duration and amplitude. The era of
OPEC's opportunistic price-gouging is over, and no other entity is
in sight with the power to move oil prices in any consistent direc-
tion or to stabilize them at any given level.
The power of the Texas Railroad Commission
To understand OPEC's helplessness in today's crude oil-market,
it is useful to review how the market operated before OPEC came
to power, and how the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) man-
aged to exercise control for nearly forty years.
The TRC's rule emerged in the mid-1930s from circumstances
quite different from those that nurtured OPEC in the 1960s and
1970s. Between 1859 (the year Colonel Drake first discovered oil
in Pennsylvania) and the Great Depression, crude-oil markets ev-
erywhere were dominated by events in the United States, where
one black-gold rush after another unleashed an oversupply and
sent prices plummeting. Growing oil demand rapidly restored prices
after most of these crises, as petroleum captured markets that were
previously held by whale oil, gas, or coal, and as the number of
automobiles swelled.
The Yates field in Texas, for example, was first tapped in 1926.
It was the biggest field yet found, and over its first year of pro-
duction average crude-oil prices in the United States fell 24 per-
cent. Prices recovered quickly, but in 1930, the beginning of the
depression coincided with discovery. of the even larger East Tex-
as field. Oil literally ran in the creeks, and prices fell locally to 10
cents per barrel.
Much of this market chaos resulted from the common-law "rule of
capture." The principle that nobody owned oil until it was brought
to the surface generated frenzied competition among drillers to
lift as much oil as they could from each newly-discovered pool
before their neighbors got it. The East Texas drilling rush ended
in 1931 only when the governor sent the National Guard into the
field to shut down production. The next year, a bitterly divided
Texas legislature granted the TRC authority to limit output from
individual wells in the interest of conservation and market order.
Under "market-demand prorationing," refiners told the TRC how
much oil they wanted to buy each month, and the Commission
parceled out the "allowable" ;:share of this demand to each well.
This system assured every Texas producer a buyer for at least
some of his oil, no matter how much excess production capacity
other producers held. The TRC's ability to stabilize the market was
bolstered by market-demand prorationing in several other states,
inclu
1, T h
m
g ouisiana, t e number-two U.S. producer. Under stat
regulation, physical shortages and surpluses both became a thin
of the past, "conservation" replaced physical waste, and the violent
short-term fluctuations of crude-oil prices ended.
Even more important was a series of federal actions support-
ing TRC authority. In the 1935 Connally "hot-oil" law, Congress
made it a federal crime to ship oil produced in violation of state
conservation orders. After World War II, the executive branch
acted to prevent uncontrolled imports of low-cost foreign crude
oil from undermining the states' control of U.S. oil supplies. For
a while, the handful of largely U.S.-based oil companies that con-
trolled the oil reserves of the Middle East and the Caribbean had
cooperated successfully in limiting their foreign petroleum produc-
tion to just about the amount demanded by their own foreign
refineries.
Nevertheless, by 1948. the huge, low cost oil reserves overseas s
threatened Texas regulation that the Truman administration started
assigning "voluntary" import quotas to the companies. In 1958, af-
ter independents such as Hunt and Occidental developed enormous
new reserves in -Libya, President Eisenhower established a man-
datory oil-import program (MOIP). The MOIP gave each U.S. re-
finer the right to import some lower-priced foreign oil, but it en-
abled the TRC and other state conservation authorities to continue
setting the total volume of crude oil supplied to the domestic
market.
Critics of market-demand prorationing and import quotas, in-
cluding the 1970 Cabinet Task Force On Oil Import Control headed
by George Shultz, saw the combination mainly as an arrangement
that kept U.S. prices artificially high and perpetuated wasteful ex-
cess capacity. This arrangement indeed did shut in much of the
nation's lowest-cost oil at the same time that it created an incen-
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