USE OF US-SOVIET COMPARISONS IN NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000100070018-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2008
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: June 12, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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DATE
TRANSMITTAL SLIP 7 Apr 83
TO:
Paul Berenson, Def. Science Board
ROOM NO.
BUILDING
3E1074
Pentagon
REMARKS:
Attached is another
document I would like for
SPC to read. Please
return it to me when.he has finished
with it. Also note that it is not
to be reproduced or distributed to
anyone. Thanks.
FROM:
Harry Rowen, Chairman/NIC
ROOM NO.
BUILDING
7E62
H s. CIA
IEEE 55' 241 WHICH MAYB EMUS USED.
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1* ?
STAT
STAT
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
NFAC 3613-81
12 June 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA : Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
Chairman, National Intelligence Councilq.L-
Major General Ennis C. Whitehead, Jr., USA
National Intelligence Officer for General Purpose Forces
SUBJECT . Use of US_S t Comparisons in National Intelligence
Estimates
O/DCI Memo dtd. 8 Jun 81, "Discussion of Net Assessments
and Provision of U.S. Force Data to the CIA" 7-1
1. Compliance with the agreement between the DCI and SECDEF on
displaying only Soviet forces information in national intelligence esti-
mates (Reference) requires that we delete or alter Chapter VI, "Comparison
of Forces in Central Europe: A Soviet Perspective," of NIE 11-14-81
(Attachment). Possible alternatives are described in paragraph 5.LI
2. Background. The aim of Chapter VI is to provide a Soviet perception
of the balance of forces in Central Europe. The analysis incorporates:
-- the Soviet method for making force comparisons;
-- Soviet judgments on relative weapon values (Tab 1
shows tank scores);
-- data on Warsaw Pact forces;
-- data on NATO forces (Tab 2 shows example of
NATO we4pons procurement data).
3. Additionally, to permit comparisons of Soviet and US perceptions
we have provided'the reader with the results of several US analyses. For
example, Tab 3 shows the Soviet view of relative force effectivengss during
mobilization; Tab 4 shows a similar US calculation.)
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? NFAC 3613-81
SUBJECT: Use of US-S iet Comparisons in National Intelligence
Estimates
4. In summary, limited amounts of highly aggregated US data are
displayed in Chapter VI, but, more importantly, much US data has been used
behind the scenes to construct the Soviet perception as displayed by the
graphs (Tab 3). Our key assumption is that the Soviets have a full and
accurate knowledge of NATO force availability, modernization rates, and
reinforcement capability. fl
5. Alternatives. There are several options for resolving the issue
of force comparisons and the use of US data in the NIE.
a. Delete Chapter VI. This solution would comply fully
with the DCI-SECDEF agreement and satisfy LTG Tighe's desire
to avoid US-Soviet force comparisons in all estimates.
b. tain a modified Chapter VI, but delete specific
NATO data (see Tab 2) and all examples of US analysis
Ta Thus, we would continue to provide an intelligence
community estimate of Soviet perceptions without showing
specific US data.
c. Retain Chapter VI as written. This alternative
would provide a more complete analysis, but would show
highly aggregated data on NATO forces. (C)
6. I informally polled the NFIB representatives about retaining this
chapter: Army wants it; Air Force, Navy, State, and NSA appear to favor
keeping it or don't care one way or the other. NFAC and the Marines withheld
judgment; DIA opposes it. M s agreed that we should take out all references
to comparable US analyses.
7. Recommendation. Propose that we retain a modified Chapter VI in
the NIE (Alternative 5.b).
Ennis C. Whitehead, Jr.
/$ Ju.v r /
-2-
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