LETTER TO MR. PRESIDENT FROM GENERAL W. ANDERSON JR.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91M00696R000300110012-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: July 28, 2001
• Content Type: LETTER

Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP91M00696R000300110012-8 Colby
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PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY BOARD
June 13, 1974
Dear Mr. President:
In a letter dated April 30, 1974, your Foreign Intelligence Advisory
Board forwarded to you its annual strategic threat assessment.
Copies were simultaneously sent to the Secretary of State, the
Secretary of Defense and the Director of Central Intelligence.
Among several areas of concern which were addressed in this
report, the Board disagreed with a statement in NIE 11-8-73,
Soviet Forces for Intercontinental Attack, which says "under no
foreseeable circumstances in the next ten years are the Soviets
likely to develop the ability to reduce damage to themselves to
acceptable levels by a first strike against US strategic forces. "
The DCI was asked to personally reassess the basis for this
judgment and has done so in a letter to you dated May 18, 1974.
The DCI amplified his rationale in a briefing to the Board during
its last meeting on June 7, 1974, the thrust of which is that he
continues to endorse the foregoing statement.
The Board is most appreciative of the DCI's special efforts and
rapid response to its concerns. However, the members remain
unanimous in their judgment that ten-year projections of what the
Soviets are likely to do cannot be made with the degree of confidence
which these national security issues require.
The DCI's presentation to the Board was commendable for its
clarity and logic. The conclusion of the briefing, however, con-
tains the essence of the Boards principal concern: that the US
lives with a number of uncertainties regarding the USSR, any one
of which could alter our perception of its capabilities and intentions
to an enormou:3 degree. These uncertainties are: Soviet goals?
Damage levels which the Soviets would regard as acceptable?
Performance of strategic weapons systems? Soviet technological
advances? US/USSR interactions?
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On this basis, Mr. President, we remain concerned lest
ten-year projections of Soviet perceptions, capabilities, and
intentions unduly encourage a sense of complacency detrimental
to the continuing development of adequate US strategic forces.
Respectfully yours,
George W. Anderson, Sr.
Admiral, USN (Ret.)
Chairman
The President
The White House
Washington, D. C.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP91 M00696R000300110012-8
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP91 M00696R000300110012-8
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Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP91 M00696R000300110012-8