H/W SUPPORT CABLE FOR EUROPEAN BRIEF OCPAS EUR 95/161 FOR 23 JULY 1995

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0000444673
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2010
• Case Number: F-2010-00969
• Publication Date: July 13, 1995

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P 130609Z JUL 95
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BT
CONTROLS
nPH PRQPT-1
SECTION 1 OF 4
CITE CIA 360172
 /*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE
BODY
PASS: AFTAC PATRICK AFB/IN; DEPT OF STATE FOR SECSTATE AID; DIA
FOR EUR; CINCEUR FOR POLAD; USCINCSO QHTS PANAMA FOR POLAD; AIR
UNIVERSITY FOR STATE REP AND NAVY WAR COLLEGE FOR STATE
DEPT REP; TREASURY DEPT ATTN MRS BECK DADS; COMUSARMY FT MEADE FOR
SPECIAL RESEARCH DET; COMDT COASTGUARD FOR POLAD; HQ TAC FOR
TACOPS/INOI; HQS DLA FOR CIS; BERGSTROM AFB TEX FOR 67 TRW/IN;
NPIC FOR PB CABLES; CINCUSAFE FOR INOCN XPNN; HQ AFSOC HURLBURT
FLO FL//IN//; CDR USASOC FT BRAGG NC//AQIN//; COMNAVSPECWARCOM
CORONADO CA//N2//; CDR4THPSYOP GP FT BRAGG NC//ASOF POG//; MAC
INTEL CENTER SCOTT AFB; CDRUSAITAC WASHDC FOR GIPO, 24 COMP WING
HOWARD AFB DOI; 26AD LUKE AFB ARIZ/INZE; FAIRCHILD AFB WA/IN; 12
TIS BERGSTROM AFB FOR INI; 9TH AFB SHAW SC//IN//; FAA/ATTN
ACS-400; NE AD SECTOR GRIFFISS AFB PASS TO IN; CG II MEF//G2//FOR
SECOND SRI GROUP; HQ AFSPACECOM/IN; USTRANS INTELCEN SCOTT
AFB/~ COMFAIR KEFLAVIK IC//N2//; HQ AFSPACECOM PETERSON
AFB CO/INTEL/INO/INA/INU; COMNISCOM WASHDC//NAVATAC/22D; HQ DA
PASS TO TRAMO; MARCORINTACT DET QUANTICO VA~; CDRUSAICFH
FT HUACHUCA AZ//ATZS CDI-T//PASS TO GENERAL STEWART; CMISE
XVIIIABNCORPS FT BRAGG NC; CDRUSAISC FT HUACHUCA AZ//ASIS//;
CDRTRADOC//ATDO-I//; CDRNGIC//IANGIC-OPS//; CDRAMC//AMCMI-D-O//;
DCDRUSASOC//CSSD-IN-IA//;
SUBJECT: H/W SUPPORT CABLE FOR EUROPEAN BRIEF OCPAS EUR 95/161 FOR
13 JULY 1995
REF: NONE.
CONTENTS
1. BOSNIA: SERBS FORCING MUSLIMS OUT OF SREBRENICA
4. ALGERIA: ISLAMIC LEADER KILLED IN FRANCE
5. BOSNIA: THE BOSNIAN SERBS AND THE EASTERN ENCLAVES
1. BOSNIA: SERBS FORCING MUSLIMS OUT OF SREBRENICA F
BOSNIAN SERBS YESTERDAY BEGAN EVACUATING CIVILIANS FROM POTOCARI
TO KLADANJ, IN BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT-HELD TERRITORY, ACCORDING TO
PRESS REPORTS. A GROUP OF 3,000,
INCLUDING 88 WOUNDED, REACHED KLADANJ LAST NIGHT AND THAT THE UN
AND THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT WERE EXPECTED TO MOVE THEM ON TO
TUZLA.
 ACCOMMODATE THE REFUGEES,
-- BOSNIAN SERBS YESTERDAY WERE SEPARATING OUT MUSLIM MEN IN
POTOCARI AND WERE SCREENING THOSE 16 AND OLDER FOR "WAR CRIMES,"
ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS.
BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TOLD UN HIGH
COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES SPECIAL ENVOY BILJEVELD YESTERDAY THAT
THE GOVERNMENT WANTS THE CIVILIANS TO REMAIN IN THE SPEBRENICA
POCKET AND TO BE CARED FOR THERE BY THE UN. THEY REPORTEDLY SAY A
RESIDUAL MUSLIM POPULATION WILL LET THE GOVERNMENT AND ARMY
MAINTAIN A TOEHOLD.
SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE AKASHI ANNOUNCED UN TROOPS WOULD NOT
BOSNIAN SERB OFFICIALS YESTERDAY GAVE THE UN PERMISSION TO SEND A
RELIEF CONVOY TO THE TOWN, BUT SERB FORCES AT THE LJUBOVIJA BORDER
CROSSING REFUSED TO ALLOW IT INTO THEIR TERRITORY, ACCORDING TO A
PRESS REPORT. THE CONVOY WILL TRY TO CROSS TODAY AT MALI ZVORNIK.
SOME UN OBSERVATION POSTS NEAR ZEPA REPORTEDLY CAME UNDER SERB
ARTILLERY FIRE TODAY.
THE SERBS ARE MOVING LARGE
NUMBERS OF TROOPS TO THE HAN PIJESAK AREA IN PREPARATION FOR A
TAKEOVER OF ZEPA. THEY PROBABLY WILL LAUNCH AN OFFENSIVE AGAINST
GORAZDE AS SOON AS BRITISH UN TROOPS THERE ROTATE OUT THIS SUMMER,
BOSNIAN FEDERATION PRESIDENT ZUBAK SAID PUBLICLY YESTERDAY THAT
THE CROATIAN DEFENSE COUNCIL AND THE BOSNIAN ARMY HAD AGREED TO
THE DEPLOYMENT OF THE REACTION FORCE ON FEDERATION TERRITORY.F-
THE BOSNIAN PRESIDENT TOLD REPORTERS YESTERDAY HE IS "ALMOST
CERTAIN" HIS GOVERNMENT WILL ASK THE UN TO LEAVE BOSNIA WHEN ITS
MANDATE EXPIRES IN NOVEMBER AND POSSIBLY SOONER, GIVEN ITS FAILURE
TO DEFEND SREBRENICA. HE PUBLICLY DEMANDED THAT THE UN USE FORCE
TO REESTABLISH THE SAFE AREA AND TO DELIVER FOOD AND MEDICINE TO
REFUGEES.
 -- //IZETBEGOVIC WILL USE THE THREAT TO TRY TO COMPEL THE UN TO
SAVE THE OTHER ENCLAVES AND TO BREAK THE SIEGE OF SARAJEVO.//F-
THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL HAS UNANIMOUSLY CONDEMNED THE BOSNIAN SERB
OFFENSIVE, THE EU ISSUED A SIMILAR CONDEMNATION, AND MOST ALLIES
ARE LEANING TOWARD DIPLOMACY TO BRING ABOUT A BOSNIAN SERB
WITHDRAWAL.
/****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 002 ******/
-- FRENCH PRIME MINISTER JUPPE PUBLICLY REPEATED PRESIDENT
CHIRAC'S OFFER TO USE FRENCH TROOPS TO RESTORE UN CONTROL OF
SREBRENICA, BUT PARIS IS FOCUSING MORE ON THE
REOPENING OF THE MT. IGMAN ROAD INTO SARAJEVO USING THE REACTION
FORCE.// PARIS APPEARS TO BE LOOKING FOR A MISSION THAT WOULD SHOW
THE VALUE OF UNPROFOR AND AVOID A WITHDRAWAL.//
-- BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY RIFKIND PUBLICLY CALLED FOR THE
BOSNIAN SERBS TO WITHDRAW IN EXCHANGE FOR DEMILITARIZATION OF THE
ENCLAVE. THE BRITISH AND THE DUTCH
ARE IN AGREEMENT TO DEFER ANY IMMEDIATE DECISION ON WITHDRAWAL, AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, //ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THE
DUTCH CABINET WILL AGREE TO A DELAY.//
THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY CONDEMNED THE SERB OFFENSIVE BUT
CHARGED THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT WITH VIOLATING THE DEMILITARIZED
STATUS OF THE SREBRENICA ENCLAVE. ONE OFFICIAL TERMED NATO'S
AIRSTRIKES ON TUESDAY UNJUSTIFIED, PRESS REPORTS SAY.
--// MOSCOW'S CRITICISM OF THE GOVERNMENT AND NATO SUGGESTS THAT
IT WILL TRY TO BLOCK ANY INTERNATIONAL EFFORT TO PUNISH THE SERBS,
INCLUDING USE OF THE REACTION FORCE TO RETAKE SREBRENICA OR TO
CLEAR A ROUTE TO SARAJEVO. THE RUSSIANS MAY INSTEAD CALL FOR
ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE, PERHAPS CONTAINING TERRITORIAL
CONCESSIONS TO THE SERBS.//
2. BURMA: MIXED REACTION TO NOBEL LAUREATE'S RELEASE
ASEAN COUNTRIES HAVE QUICKLY APPLAUDED AUNG SAN SUU KYI'S RELEASE.
 PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT RAMOS SAID IT IS AN IMPORTANT STEP IN THE
PROCESS OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION AND URGED THE WORLD TO FOSTER
BETTER RELATIONS WITH BURMA. INDONESIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ALATAS
TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE RELEASE REFLECTED GROWING POLITICAL
STABILITY IN BURMA.
-- SINGAPORE, ONE OF BURMA'S LEADING ASIAN INVESTORS, SAYS IT IS A
MOVE TOWARD RETURNING THE COUNTRY TO NORMALCY, A PROCESS WHICH
SINGAPORE HAS QUIETLY ENCOURAGED, ACCORDING TO A MINISTRY OF
FOREIGN AFFAIRS STATEMENT.
JAPANESE STATEMENTS SUGGEST SUU KYI'S RELEASE PAVES THE WAY FOR
TOKYO TO RESUME FULL ECONOMIC AID, WHICH WAS SUSPENDED AFTER THE
BURMESE CRACKDOWN IN 1988,
WESTERN COUNTRIES, MEANWHILE, ARE DEMANDING THAT RANGOON IMPLEMENT
FURTHER STEPS TO IMPROVE THE POLITICAL AND HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION.
AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN MINISTER EVANS HAS URGED THE MILITARY RULERS TO
RELEASE OTHER POLITICAL PRISONERS AND IMPROVE PROTECTION OF HUMAN
RIGHTS. ITALY AND THE UK ALSO HAVE CALLED ON BURMA TO RELEASE ALL
POLITICAL PRISONERS.
FRENCH AND ALGERIAN PRESS REPORTS ARE BLAMING THE ALGERIAN ARMED
ISLAMIC GROUP FOR THE MURDER OF SHAYKH ABDELBAKI SAHRAOUI,
COFOUNDER OF THE OUTLAWED ISLAMIC SALVATION FRONT (FIS), IN A
 /****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 003 ******/
PARIS MOSQUE ON TUESDAY. WITNESSES SAID HE WAS KILLED BY TWO
GUNMEN, WHO LOOKED LIKE ARABS.
OUTSIDE ALGERIA;
LAST MONTH IT SENT SAHRAOUI A LETTER, PUBLISHED IN THE
LONDON-BASED ARABIC DAILY AL HAYAT, THAT THREATENED FIS LEADERS
WHO COOPERATE WITH THE ALGERIAN REGIME.
-- A SENIOR FIS LEADER HAS PUBLICLY BLAMED ALGIERS FOR THE DEATH.
//ALGIERS APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE TO GAIN FROM KILLING SAHRAOUI,
HOWEVER; HE DENOUNCED VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS AND DID NOT SPEAK
OUT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT.//
ISLAMIC SALVATION FRONT'S CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL.
THE FIS LEADERSHIP SELECTED HIM TO BEGIN A
DIALOGUE WITH THE ALGERIAN REGIME LAST DECEMBER BECAUSE HE HAD A
REPUTATION AS A MODERATE. HE ACCOMMODATED FRENCH
SENSITIVITIES ABOUT THE LARGE FIS PRESENCE IN THE COUNTRY. THE
LEADERSHIP IS LIKELY TO APPOINT A REPLACEMENT FOR SAHRAOUI SOON
END BOX
5. BOSNIA: THE BOSNIAN SERBS AND THE EASTERN ENCLAVES
MAJOR OBSTACLE TO A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT.
TIMING OF ASSAULT ON SREBRENICA
-- THE GOVERNMENT ATTACK ON A SERB VILLAGE NEAR SPEBRENICA ON 26
JUNE MAY HAVE CAUSED THE SERBS TO ORDER THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST THE
ENCLAVE AFTER ALL, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THEY INITIALLY
INTENDED TO CAPTURE THE ENTIRE SAFE AREA.
-- IN ANY CASE, THE SERBS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CONTAIN THE SARAJEVO
OFFENSIVE, DESPITE SOME TERRITORIAL LOSSES, AND AS OF LATE LAST
MONTH BELIEVED THE MAJOR THREAT HAD PASSED
 BOSNIAN ARMY
SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNITS HAVE BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL AGAINST
TARGETS BEHIND BSA LINES AND THE ATTACK ON THE SERB VILLAGE
NEAR SREBRENICA HAD SO ANGERED THE BSA GENERAL STAFF IT HAD VOWED
TO TAKE SREBRENICA WHENEVER IT WANTED AND TO PUSH ASIDE UN UNITS
IF GOVERNMENT COMMANDO ATTACKS CONTINUED.
THE SERBS BEGAN SHELLING ZEPA THE SAME DAY THEY BEGAN THE ATTACK
ON SREBRENICA. THE FRONTLINE BETWEEN THE TWO ENCLAVES WAS ONLY 5
KM APART, CIVILIANS AND MILITARY PERSONNEL OFTEN INFILTRATED
BETWEEN THE TWO, AND ZEPA HAD BEEN USED AS A BASE FOR RAIDS ON
SERB-HELD TERRITORY.
ELIMINATION OF THE GORAZDE ENCLAVE REPORTEDLY IS PART OF THE PLAN
TO "CLEANSE" EASTERN BOSNIA OF ITS MUSLIM POPULATION, BUT THE
SERBS PROBABLY WILL CHOOSE TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR GAINS AROUND
SREBRENICA BEFORE STARTING ANOTHER OFFENSIVE.
-- MOREOVER, GORAZDE COVERS A LARGER AREA THAN THE OTHER EASTERN
ENCLAVES AND IS OCCUPIED BY MORE GOVERNMENT TROOPS. THE SERBS
WOULD NEED TO REINFORCE THE REGION BEFORE CARRYING OUT AN
OPERATION THERE.
IN THE BIHAC ENCLAVE, OTHER PARTIES ARE INVOLVED IN THE CONFLICT,
INCLUDING BOSNIAN CROATS, CROATIANS, KRAJINA SERBS, AND FIKRET
ABDIC'S REBEL MUSLIMS. RATHER THAN CAPTURING THE ENTIRE ENCLAVE,
THE BOSNIAN SERBS PROBABLY WOULD BE MORE ABLE TO NEUTRALIZE
GOVERNMENT TROOPS AND TO INSTALL ABDIC AS THEIR PUPPET. BOSNIAN
ARMY FORCES THERE ARE SOME OF THE MOST CAPABLE GOVERNMENT TROOPS,
AND AN ATTEMPT TO ELIMINATE THE ENCLAVE WOULD REQUIRE A STRONGER
FORCE THAN APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO THE BSA. OPTIONS
AVAILABLE TO IT IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE:
/****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 004 ******/
-- CONTINUATION OF SUPPORT TO THE KRAJINA SERB AND REBEL MUSLIM
ATTACKS ON GOVERNMENT FORCES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ENCLAVE.
-- STRENGTHENING BSA UNITS TO COUNTER LIMITED OFFENSIVES THAT
GOVERNMENT TROOPS ARE STILL CONDUCTING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
ENCLAVE.
THE GOVERNMENT FELT "BETRAYED" BY THE UN'S
 -- BOSNIAN LEADERS VIEW THE ATTACK ON SPEBRENICA AS A TEST OF
WESTERN RESOLVE AND REPORTEDLY BELIEVE THE BSA WILL ATTACK
SARAJEVO IF THE UN FAILS TO DEFEND THE OTHER ENCLAVES.
ADMIN
DECL: OADR
BT