H/W SUPPORT CABLE FOR EUROPEAN BRIEF OCPAS EUR 95/163 FOR 15 JULY 1995

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0000444678
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2010
• Case Number: F-2010-00969
• Publication Date: July 15, 1995

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CDSN = CFS346 MCN = 95196/08345 TOR = 951960659
PTTSZYUW RUEKJCS7321 1960659-SSSS--RUEANSS.
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P 150659Z JUL 95
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BT
CONTROLS
SECTION 1 OF 6
CITE CIA 363458
 /******* THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/
BODY
PASS: AFTAC PATRICK AFB/IN; DEPT OF STATE FOR SECSTATE AID; DIA
FOR EUR; CINCEUR FOR POLAD; USCINCSO QHTS PANAMA FOR POLAD; AIR
UNIVERSITY FOR STATE REP AND NAVY WAR COLLEGE FOR STATE
DEPT REP; TREASURY DEPT ATTN MRS BECK DADS; COMUSARMY FT MEADE FOR
SPECIAL RESEARCH DET; COMDT COASTGUARD FOR POLAD; HQ TAC FOR
TACOPS/INOI; HQS DLA FOR CIS; BERGSTROM AFB TEX FOR 67 TRW/IN;
NPIC FOR PB CABLES; CINCUSAFE FOR INOCN XPNN; HQ AFSOC HURLBURT
FLO FL//IN//; CDR USASOC FT BRAGG NC//AQIN//; COMNAVSPECWARCOM
CORONADO CA//N2//; CDR4THPSYOP GP FT BRAGG NC//ASOF POG//; MAC
INTEL CENTER SCOTT AFB; CDRUSAITAC WASHOC FOR GIPD, 24 COMP WING
HOWARD AFB DOI; 26AD LUKE AFB ARIZ/INZE; FAIRCHILD AFB WA/IN; 12
TIS BERGSTROM AFB FOR INI; 9TH AFB SHAW SC//IN//; FAA/ATTN
ACS-400; NE AD SECTOR GRIFFISS AFB PASS TO IN; CG II MEF//G2//FOR
SECOND SRI GROUP; HQ AFSPACECOM/IN; USTRANS INTELCEN SCOTT
AFB/0 COMFAIR KEFLAVIK IC//N2//; HQ AFSPACECOM PETERSON
AFB CO/INTEL/INO/INA/INU; COMNISCOM WASHDC//NAVATAC/220; HQ DA
PASS TO TRAMO; MARCORINTACT DET QUANTICO VA/; CDRUSAICFH
FT HUACHUCA AZ//ATZS CDI-T//PASS TO GENERAL STEWART; CMISE
XVIIIABNCORPS FT BRAGG NC; CDRUSAISC FT HUACHUCA AZ//ASIS//;
CDRTRADOC//ATDO-I//; CDRNGIC//IANGIC-OPS//; CDRAMC//AMCMI-D-O//;
DCDRUSASDC//CSSD-IN-IA//;
SUBJECT: H/W SUPPORT CABLE FOR EUROPEAN BRIEF OCPAS EUR 95/163 FOR
15 JULY 1995
REF: NONE.
CONTENTS
1. BOSNIA: FIGHTING IN ZEPA
1. BOSNIA: FIGHTING IN ZEPA
BOSNIAN SERBS YESTERDAY LAUNCHED A MAJOR ATTACK ON THE ZEPA
ENCLAVE, SERB FORCES REPORTEDLY ADVANCED FROM
SEGRE;F
 PAGE:3688
THE SOUTH AFTER THE AFTERNOON DEADLINE FOR SURRENDER OF UN AND
GOVERNMENT TROOPS IN THE ENCLAVE HAD PASSED. TWO UKRAINIAN
OBSERVATION POSTS CAME UNDER ARTILLERY FIRE, ACCORDING TO PRESS
REPORTS, BUT THERE IS NO INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF THE 79
PEACEKEEPERS.
FIGHTING.
NO DECISIONS WERE REACHED ABOUT THE TIMING AND CIRCUMSTANCES OF
THE BATTALION'S DEPARTURE FROM THE ENCLAVE DURING TALKS BETWEEN
BATTALION COMMANDER KARREMANS AND BOSNIAN SERB ARMY COMMANDER
MLADIC, . THE DUTCH REPORTEDLY INTEND TO
REMAIN UNTIL ALL THE WOUNDED REFUGEES HAVE BEEN EVACUATED AND AN
INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE IS ESTABLISHED TO MONITOR THE STATUS OF THE
YOUNG MEN DETAINED IN BRATUNAC.
-- MLADIC INSISTS THE DUTCH TROOPS MUST IN ANY CASE GIVE UP THEIR
WEAPONS BEFORE THEY CAN LEAVE, BUT KARREMANS
SAID THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE.
-- AFTER TALKS IN PALE LAST NIGHT, RUSSIAN ENVOY CHURKIN SAID THE
SERBS WOULD SOON RELEASE THE 64 DUTCH PEACEKEEPERS AT BRATUNAC.[
LOCAL OFFICIALS CLAIM BOSNIAN SERB FORCES ARE EXECUTING THE
DRAFT-AGE MEN FROM SREBRENICA; REFUGEES ARRIVING IN TUZLA SAY MORE
THAN 1,000 HAVE ALREADY BEEN KILLED.
IA UN SPOKESMAN SAID, HOWEVER, THAT THE
FATE OF THE 4,000 TO 5,000 MEN IS "COMPLETELY UNCLEAR," AND THE UN
SECURITY COUNCIL HAS DEMANDED THEIR RELEASE.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT SERB TROOPS ENTERED THEIR COMPOUND AND TOOK
A NUMBER OF MEN TO A NEARBY HOUSE. SHOTS WERE HEARD, BUT THE DUTCH
WERE NOT ALLOWED TO INVESTIGATE.
-- THE SERBS HAVE REFUSED RED CROSS REQUESTS FOR ACCESS TO
PRISONERS, ACCORDING TO A PRESS STATEMENT.
BRATUNAC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN OR
AROUND THE SOCCER FIELD, WHERE PRESS REPORTS SAY THE MEN ARE BEING
HELD.// SEVERAL LARGE INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS IN THE AREA, HOWEVER,
COULD SERVE AS DETENTION SITES.//
FRENCH PRESIDENT CHIRAC SAID PUBLICLY THAT THE OTHER ALLIES
REACTED NEGATIVELY TO HIS CALL FOR A FIRM ALLIED RESPONSE.
 PAGE:3689
-- CHIRAC MAY BE UNDER PRESSURE FROM FRENCH MILITARY OFFICIALS,
FRUSTRATED OVER WHAT THEY PERCEIVE AS A LACK OF A COHERENT
STRATEGY IN BOSNIA,
-- NONETHELESS, HE IS AWARE THAT A UNILATERAL FRENCH WITHDRAWAL
WOULD BE RISKY AND HUMILIATING.
IF FRANCE WERE TO LEAVE BOSNIA,
IT WOULD TAKE 20 YEARS TO RESTORE ITS CREDIBILITY IN EUROPEAN
DEFENSE CIRCLES.
/****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 002 ******/
REFUGEES IN TUZLA BECOMING VIOLENT
THE 13,000 TO 17,000 MUSLIMS FROM SREBRENICA AT THE TUZLA AIRBASE
YESTERDAY BLAMED THE UN FOR THEIR PLIGHT AND SOME BEGAN THROWING
STONES AT UN OFFICIALS AND REPORTERS, PRESS ACCOUNTS SAY.
BUT THE TUZLA AIRBASE HAS SOFTENED,
-- LATE YESTERDAY, AUTHORITIES SAID THAT NO MORE THAN 7,000 PEOPLE
WOULD BE ACCOMMODATED AT THE AIRBASE AND THE REMAINDER WOULD BE
MOVED TO CENTERS IN THE TUZLA AREA OR ELSEWHERE.
NO
 NO
 THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S AND THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT'S
APPARENT UNWILLINGNESS TO DEFEND SREBRENICA WILL EMBOLDEN THE
SERBS TO TAKE OVER ZEPA--WHICH WAS UNDER ATTACK YESTERDAY--AND TO
ADVANCE ON GORAZDE. BEFORE THE CAPTURE OF SREBRENICA,
SERB TROOP MORALE WAS FLAGGING, AND
THE BOSNIAN SERB ARMY WAS EXHAUSTED AND
ANXIOUSLY AWAITING THE END OF THE WAR.
-- THE TAKEOVER WILL ALSO LESSEN, TEMPORARILY AT LEAST, THE
GROWING CONCERN AMONG SERBS ABOUT A PROTRACTED WAR OF ATTRITION
WITH THE BOSNIANS, THE CROATS, AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
PURSUING A MILITARY SOLUTION
THE SUCCESS AT SREBRENICA COULD RENEW THE HOPES OF BOSNIAN SERB
LEADERS OF ACHIEVING SUCH BROADER GOALS AS OBTAINING SERB
TERRITORIAL SOVEREIGNTY AND PARTITIONING SARAJEVO BETWEEN SERBS
AND MUSLIMS.
 PAGE:3695
-- ON WEDNESDAY, BOSNIAN SERB "PRESIDENT" KARADZIC SAID THAT THE
MOST DARING OF SERB DREAMS WERE COMING TRUE WITH THE CREATION OF A
SERB STATE WEST OF THE DRINA RIVER.
THE FALL OF THE ENCLAVES WILL ENCOURAGE SERB MILITARY LEADERS WHO
HAVE PUSHED FOR AN ALL-OUT OFFENSIVE AGAINST THE BOSNIAN
GOVERNMENT.
BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS WOULD BENEFIT IF THE DEMISE OF THE EASTERN
ENCLAVES PUSHED THE GOVERNMENT TO RENEW NEGOTIATIONS ON THE
PARTITION OF BOSNIA. ON WEDNESDAY, KARADZIC SAID THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO HOLD A CONFERENCE ON THIS ISSUE
AND TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON THE BOSNIAN SERBS AND BELGRADE.
-- ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, KARADZIC CLAIMED THAT HIS
GOVERNMENT WILL INSIST ON HAVING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
RECOGNIZE THE EXISTING SITUATION ON THE GROUND.
THERE HAS BEEN NO OFFICIAL REACTION FROM THE MILOSEVIC REGIME OR
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO THE SERB OCCUPATION OF SPEBRENICA, AND
GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED TELEVISION PLAYED DOWN NEWS OF THE EVENT. IN
THE AFTERMATH OF THE TAKEOVER, MILOSEVIC WILL BE EVEN MORE
RELUCTANT TO RECOGNIZE BOSNIA IN EXCHANGE FOR A LIFTING OF
SANCTIONS.
-- BEFORE HE MOVES TO RECOGNIZE EITHER BOSNIA OR CROATIA, HE IS
LIKELY TO TRY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S
GROWING WAR WEARINESS TO DEMAND AN END TO SANCTIONS.
-- HE MAY ALSO TRY TO LINK SERBIAN WILLINGNESS TO FACILITATE THE
DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN AID AND OTHER ASSISTANCE TO THE EASTERN
ENCLAVES TO A PLEDGE FROM THE CONTACT GROUP TO LIFT SANCTIONS.
ZAGREB WILL CONTINUE TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT WITH
REGARD TO THE KRAJINA REGION DESPITE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN
BOSNIA. NONETHELESS, ZAGREB IS
CONTINUING PREPARATIONS FOR FURTHER ATTACKS IN THE LIVNO VALLEY
AND IN THE MT. DINARA AREA, PROBABLY AS PRECURSORS TO A LARGER
OFFENSIVE THIS FALL.
-- PRESIDENTS TUDJMAN AND IZETBEGOVIC ARE TO MEET LATE NEXT WEEK
TO DISCUSS MILITARY COOPERATION, THE
CROATIANS MAY INCREASE THEIR CURRENT LEVEL OF SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY
 FOR BOSNIAN FORCES IN BIHAC.
THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT HAD NO INTENTION
/****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 006 ******/
ANTICIPATED AND PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON MILITARY
PLANNIt;G. THEIR FALL WILL, HOWEVER, ADD LARGE NUMBERS OF REFUGEES
FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO CARE FOR, AND FRICTION MAY EVENTUALLY
SURFACE IF THEY HEAD TOWARD AREAS WHERE THE BOSNIAN CROATS ARE
ALREADY CONCERNED ABOUT THE ETHNIC BALANCE.
-- THE BOSNIANS PROBABLY WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE TOWARD UN
PROTECTIVE FORCES, AND GOVERNMENT HARASSMENT OF UN TROOPS MAY
INCREASE.
THE GOVERNMENT'S IMMEDIATE PRIORITY WILL BE OPENING A CORRIDOR TO
SARAJEVO BY WINTER. FRENCH PLANS TO MAKE THIS THE CENTERPIECE OF
THE STRATEGY OF THE REACTION FORCE SUGGEST BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT
LEADERS WILL GIVE THE FORCE AND THE UN ANOTHER CHANCE TO PROVE
THEMSELVES. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO INSIST, HOWEVER, THAT UNPROFOR
WITHDRAW WHEN ITS MANDATE EXPIRES IN NOVEMBER; FAILURE TO OPEN A
CORRIDOR TO SARAJEVO WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY WOULD
REQUEST THAT IT LEAVE IMMEDIATELY.
ADMIN
DECL: OADR
BT