NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0001352175
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 15, 1980

Central
Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASED
DATE: 01-20-2010
TOP seeret
 Warning Notice Intelligence Sources
and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
National Security Unauthorized Disclosure
Information Subject to Criminal Sanctions
 Situation Report
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Briefs and Comments
USSR: Fuel Shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
Liberia: Continuing Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . .
Cuba: Demonstrations Planned . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
7
Rhodesia: Status of Security Forces . . . . . . . . . .
8
France: Nuclear Power Program . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
USSR-Bulgaria: Assault Helicopters . . . . . . . . . .
10
Italy-China: Berlinguer's Visit . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
Mexico: Oil Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Morocco: New Arab Aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .
12
12
Special Analysis
Israel: Begin's Outlook and Political Position . . . . 13
15 April 1980
 Ayatollah Khomeini wants to keep the
hostages until after the US presidential elections.
the continued incarceration of the hostages will lead to
Khomeini has increasingly focused his attention in
recent months on President Carter in his public state-
ments. He may have concluded that the Shah's move to
Egypt rules out any chance for his extradition and now
wants to punish the US for past support of the Shah.
Relations with Iraq
unlikely unless e internal situation in either country
deteriorates markedly. The Iraqi leadership is primarily
concerned with remaining in power, and has far too many
major problems, activities, and objectives to take on an
open armed conflict. Iraq and Iran, however, are both
likely to increase their efforts to provoke internal prob-
lems for the other.
Iran has again accused Iraq of attacking several
Iranian gendarmerie border posts, one apparently for
the fourth consecutive day. Chances of an incident con-
tinue as both countries remain on alert against intruding
aircraft.
war between Iran and Iraq is
15 April 1980
 15 April 1980
 Major Soviet Coal Deposits
Moscow:.
14
DONETS
BASIN
PECHORA
BASIN
TAYMYR
BASIN
Nori l'sk
BASIN o West:#
Siberia UNGUS
ayoea BerBz _ `BEM( peilroH
LENA,
BASIN
KANSK- YAKUTSK
.s ,
ACHINSK qq
Y 9 lP`
belie R BASIN der u! n~u~8r 5IN ~n
KARAGANDA ni " BASIN ?,
BASIN VA
~Uc
BERING
SEA
SEA
OF
OKHO TSK
~So etskaya
Gavan'
The UnitedStates Government has not recognized the
Incorporation of Estonia. Latvia, and Lithuania into the
Sovwt Union. Names and boundary representation
are not necessarily authoritative..
 Fuel Shortages
Severe fuel shortages were reported in the Ukraine,
primarily because of the late winter cold. Coal produc-
tion lags in the Donets Basin, Ukraine's largest producer,
and snarls in the rail system also contributed to the
problem.
Crude oil production fell
150,000 barrels per day below plan in 1979, however,
and growth is continuing. to lag this year. Sales to
Eastern Bloc customers are being maintained at planned
levels, but export contracts to Western buyers have been
cut sharply for 1980.
3
15 April 1980
 4
15 April 14 0
 LIBERIA: Continuing Uncertainty
The security situation in Monrovia remains tense, but the
new government is making some progress in restoring order.
The government has received only a half-hearted
response to yesterday's pleas for residents to return to
work and for businesses to reopen. The US Embassy still
is advising American citizens to remain in their homes,
but there are no reports of increased harassment of for-
eigners. The most pressing problem facing the government--
the restoration of order and halting indiscriminate ar-
rests by the soldiers--will require the establishment of
a better functioning military command structure.
In his first nationwide broadcast yesterday, coup
leader Doe emphasized that the coup was prompted by cor-
ruption in government and unequal economic and social
opportunities. Although Doe did not mention the trial
of former government officials by a military tribunal,
he said there would be no "witch hunts." The trials ap-
parently were delayed in response to diplomatic pressure,
and the delay may help quell the arowing call for revenge
on the Americo-Liberian elite.
Doe's cabinet includes military men, a few hold-
overs from the former government, and former opposition
leaders, including Togba-Nah Tipoteh, leader of a Marxist-
oriented group. Doe is relying heavily on Gabriel
Matthews--his new Foreign Minister and leader of the
left-leaning Progressive People's Party--who had been
under arrest for treason but was released by coup lead-
top ueere
5
15 April 1980
 Rumors of invasions and countercoups have begun.
The government, meanwhile, is facing critical short-
ages of food, fuel, and cash. Matthews has made a formal
request for US Government assistance in helping overcome
the expected shortfall of rice--a staple food.
6
15 April 1980
 CUBA: Demonstrations Planned
The Cuban Government--angered by growing international criti-
cism over the Peruvian Embassy situation-has begun to stage large
demonstrations in support of the regime.
The demonstrations began last weekend as 50,000
Cubans massed in Havana pledging loyalty to the Castro
government. An editorial in the party daily newspaper
yesterday stated that 1 million Cubans are to parade past
the Peruvian Embassy on Saturday. A similar number are
to march to the US Interest Section on 1 May as part of
island-wide demonstrations to protest planned military
exercises at the US Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay.
The shrill and defensive tone of the editorial sug-
gests that Castro wrote it. In the past he has used
massive demonstrations to generate public support in dif-
ficult times and to divert attention from the regime?s
economic problems.
By announcing the march on the Peruvian Embassy five
days in advance, Castro also may be hoping that the pros-
pect of violence will frighten the refugees into leaving
the compound. Castro, moreover, probably will use the
occasion--the 19th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs victory--
to deliver a major address attacking Washington for what
he interprets as US threats aimed at Cuba.
15 April
 RHODESIA: Status of Security Forces
The Rhodesian military is concentrating on training activities
and preparing for amalgamation with the guerrillas into a new
national army,
responsibility or rees a is ing aw
and order and tracking down renegade guerrillas has been
turned over completely to the police. Police patrols
are accompanied by guerrilla officers and are under
orders not to use force if at all possible to avoid
straining relations with the guerrillas.
The last of the Army reservists mobilized for the
election in February are being released from active duty,
and armored vehicles loaned by the South Africans have
been returned. Normal recruit training is continuing,
but some units do not expect to receive any more white
draftees and are preparing for the inflow of guerrilla
personnel after independence.
The pessimism in`the military that followed Robert
Mugabe's election victory is slowly giving way to a
more optimistic mood as a result of Mugabe's moderate
stance. Nevertheless, many of Rhodesia's most ex-
perienced personnel have chosen to resign and leave the
country with a guarantee that pensions will be remitted
in hard currency.
The military and guerrilla representatives on
the amalgamation committee are still discussing integration
procedures for the new army. as well as its size and or-
ganization.
15 April 1980
 FRANCE., Nuclear Power Program
France is the most active among the major developed countries
in reducing its dependence on imvorted energy through an ambitious
nuclear power program.
By 1985 France should have 50 reactors that are ex-
pected to supply over half of the country?s electricity.
So faro the program has met little public opposition,
apparently because most. of the populace sees no alterna-
tive means of reducing France's dependence on foreign
oil. In an effort to head off localized opposition, the
government recently reduced electrical rates in areas
close to the nuclear sites, following a rise in rates
nationally.
Paris also is taking steps to secure uranium sup-
plies and to develop domestic enrichment and reprocessing
facilities. France will produce only 20 percent of its
uranium needs domestically by 1985, down from 50 percent
at present.
The bulk of France's foreign uranium supplies now
comes from Niger and Gabon, where the French have par-
tial ownership in several mines. French-owned companies
also are moving more actively into direct equity partic-
ipation in the production and exploration of uranium
deposits in Africa, Canada, Australia, and the US.
15 April 19 0
 USSR-BULGARIA: Assault Helicopters
Soviet MI-24
Hind helicopter gunships at an air ie in south-central
Bulgaria. This delivery is somewhat unusual because no
other non-Soviet Warsaw Pact country has nearly so many
Hinds, and Bulgaria normally lags behind other Warsaw
Pact members in receiving new Soviet combat equipment.
The Hind has a combat radius of 250 kilometers and can
carry bombs, rockets, antitank guided missiles, and
machineguns. It is intended to provide fire support
for ground forces, and is being used extensively by
Soviet forces in Afghanistan.
10
15 April 1980
 ITALY-CHINA: Berlinguer?s Visit
Italian Communist chief Berlinguer arrived in
Beijing yesterday on the first leg of a 10-day trip to
China and North Korea. Before departing, Berlinguer re-
portedly said that the visit to China would confirm the
full restoration of relations between the Italian Commu-
nists and their Chinese counterparts. In a clear bow to
Moscow, Berlinguer added that the visit was not directed
against the interests of'any other Communist party.
Nevertheless, the trip follows the Italian Commu-
nists' condemnation of the Soviet invasion of Afghani-
stan and their refusal to attend a Soviet-backed con-
ference of European Communist parties to discuss defense
issues. Berlinguer?s opening to China almost certainly
is intended to improve Italian Communist chances in im-
portant local elections this June and ultimately to
ns for a direct governing role.
15 April 1980
 MEXICO-. Oil Exports
Mexico is doubling its average annual oil exports
this year to about 1 million barrels per day, but the
government has announced that exports will be held to
about 1.1 million barrels per day through 1982. Princi-
pal beneficiaries of increased exports this year are the
US, Japan, Canada, France, and Spain. We expect Mexico
to raise oil production after 1982 only enough to cover
domestic demand and finance imports needed to achieve
economic growth targets.
Assuming real oil prices increase by 5 to 10 percent
a year, Mexico will need to increase exports to about
2 million barrels per day by 1985 to sustain an economic
growth rate of 8 percent per year, which we consider
likely for Mexico through 1985, If Mexico were to use
large oil sales to push growth much above 8 percent, im-
port requirements would soar, transportation and storage
bottlenecks would become critical, and inflation would
rise rapidly.
MOROCCO-. New Arab Aid
Five hundred million dollars in Arab assistance
will help fund Morocco?s efforts
to combat the Algerian-backed Polisario guerrillas in
Top SeGpe4
12
15 April
 ISRAEL: Begin?s Outlook and Political Position
Prime Minister Begin views his Washington visit as the pre-
liminary round to an eventual US-Israeli-Egyptian summit on Pales-
tinian autonomy. He will concentrate on probing and influencing
US policy and appealing for Congressional and American public
support. Begin also will seek new insights into President Sadat's
ultimate requirements to help determine what Israeli tactical con-
cessions could facilitate an autonomy agreement and avoid under-
mining the peace treaty. Begin has given no hint, however, that
he is prepared to consider major substantive changes in his nego-
tiating position.
Begin regards the turmoil in Iran and Afghanistan
as proof that Muslim political instability and Soviet
adventurism?-and not the Arab-Israeli conflict--are the
central threats to peace in the Middle East. He con-
siders Western pressure to resolve the Palestinian ques-
tion misguided and a menace to Israel's security.
To rally domestic and international support, Begin
has played extensively on fears of greater Soviet in-
fluence with Syria, Iraq, and the Palestine Liberation
organization.
13
15 April
 West Bank
(Israeli-occupied)
STRIP,'
(Israeli-/(
occupied)
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
(Israeli-
Lake?
ials
rlber1
0 20
Kilometers
Boundary representation is
 Domestic Debate
Begin's dogged personal advocacy of Jewish resettle-
ment in and near heavily Arab-populated areas of the West
Bank has alienated major segments of Israeli public
opinion and generated serious new tensions within his
Begin's popularity with the voters has declined
steadily during the past year to under 30 percent, and
his parliamentary majority has slipped to a bare five-
seat margin in the 120-member Knesset. This has left
him more than ever dependent on the support of the
hawkish members of his coalition and has added to the
determination of the remaining coalition members to hang
together to avoid an early national election.
Begin's inability to curb Israel's triple-digit
inflation is the prime domestic reason for his govern-
ment's declining popularity and for the Labor Party's
nearly two-to-one lead in the polls over Begin's Likud
L t'-
14
15 April 1980
 Begin in the US
Begin's willingness to precipitate serious Cabinet
and public divisions on the eve of his visit reflects
the depth of his ideological commitment to permanent
retention of the West Bank. In recent interviews he has
ruled out legislative authority for a West Bank - Gaza
Palestinian self-governing body, and also has taken a
hard line against voting rights for East Jerusalem Arabs,
coordination of Israeli military deployment in the West
Bank and Gaza, and abolition of the Israeli military
government in those areas. Begin probably would try to
capitalize on any strong US pressure for concessions on
these issues or on any hint of US-Egyptian policy coordi-
nation to rally Israeli public and coalition support.
15
15 April 1980
 Begin will make a real effort to
obtain a better reading of Egypt's minimum position on
the unresolved autonomy issues. He wants to protect the
peace treaty. which he regards as a great achievement.
15 April 1980
 Top Sec