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June 23, 2015
Document Release Date: 
September 9, 2010
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October 17, 1985
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ar.ota a c.naa~ M? APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE: 07-22-2010 ~~-Seo~ cr~s nun ss.z~zrx 0 ~~ 535 22 ? (b)(1) (b)(3) Itatr: Parliamentary Showdown NicaraSua: Internal Crackdown Turkay-USSR: Natural Gas Contract Sudan-US: Trial of Former Vice President asp-6~wt- Delento Minister Spadolinl placed fhe povernlnp coalition /n /eopardr retterdtr by pulllnQ out h!t Rspubl/can Party. but Prime ms determined fo argue hts case !n Parliament. Spadolini told journalists after his anno~mcemenl that he expected Craxi to follow tradition and resign. Each of Craxi's predecessors as Prime Minister has chosen to resign rather than attempt to force a parliamentary showdown. Craxi insisted, however, that he would seek a vole of confidence in Parliament today Craxi could still muster a majority without the Republicans, but Comment: Craxi's final decision is likely to turn on whether the Liberals and Social Democrats, junior partners in the coalition, agree to back him. Both parties have echoed Spadolini's criticism of the government's handling of the Achille Lauro affair but neither appears Craxi has received strong backing trcm Christian Democratic leaders and probably can depend on Christian Democrats to support him in an open vote. If, however, the open vote is followed by a secret vote, as is customary, Craxi's majority may disappear. At least 20 Christian Democratic deputies have recently been voting against Craxi in secret A period of uncertainty is probably in the offing no matter what Craxi decides. If he wins a vote of confidence, his supporters will need to negotiate a nbw program and redistribute the portfolios vacated by Republicans. Craxi may also find himself under pressure from his remainino allies to try to bring the Republicans back into the fold. if Craxi loses the support of the Liberals and Social Democrats before the showdown or loses his majority in a secret vote, he will have to resign. President Cossiga is bound by tradition to ask the outgoing Prime Minister whether he can form a successor government. Should Craxi decline the offer, Cossiga probably would turn to a Christian Democrat. either Deoutv Prime Minister Forlani or party Secretary The expansion of fhe Sand/nlstas' ex/stJnp state of em~rgencr, apparently in responaa to bolder actions 6r internal opponenfs- parfieu/arfr fhe Catholfe Church-prov legal pretext for stronger measures to come. The yearlong emergency, decreed by President Ortega on Tuesday, prohibits public assemblies, extends censorship, curtails in-country travel, bans strikes, and suspends other rights, including habeas corpus. The Sandinistas publicly claim that US "aggression" and counterrevolutionary activity by some political parties, media, and religious organizations prompted the action. In recent weeks the Sandinistas had twice prevented the Catholic radio station from rebroadcasting Cardinal Obando y Bravo's masses, threatf ned to expel several foreign priests who protested the induction of 11 seminarians into the military, and confiscated a new Church newspaper. In early September, the regime prohibited businessmen from holding ameeting-the last in a series throughout the c - m orate a colleague killed by the regime in 1980. The Sandinistas have faced other problems. On Tuesday 400 workers ua to demand Christmas bonuses the government tired 1,000 employees in late ugus or re ary" marches by workers in support of the regime. Comment: The mounting opposition criticism, labor unrest, and discontent that led to the decree may have raised concern among the Sandinistas that the dissent was providing legitimacy to the insurgency. Although the decree formalizes some existing restrictions, such as the strike ban. other measures appear aimed specifically at the Church. Increased censorship and the ban on public assemblies will curtail the Church's ability to criticize the regime in its The regime will not hesitate to take additional strong measures-such as expelling forAtgn priests or detaining business and labor leaders-- to cow its opponents. Imposition of the decree for a year instead of six months, as in the past, also suggests a hard line. Although such actions undermine their strategy of projecting a democratic image, the Sandinistas are trying to blunt international criticism by blaming the US-a theme Ortega probably will expand on at the UN next i TURKEY-USSR: Natural Gas Contract Ankara is expected to sign a 20-year contract soon for the delivery of as many as 215 billion cubic feet f6 billion cubic meters) per year of Revised plans call for a large port ono a gas o go o r en i and commercial consumers. Ankara has no plans to provide additional gas storage facilities in the first five to 10 years of the maintain the ability to switch back to other fuels Comment: This contract will make Turkey-and particularly residential users-vulnerable to interruption in Soviet gas deliveries. The Soviets will be supplying as much as 95 percQht of Turkish gas needs, albeit only 5 percent of total energy requirements. Because of the expense and inconvenience of installing a domestic pipeline grid to serve the residential and commercial market, Turkey probably will not be able to take delivery of the maximum amount available under the contract for some time. At current prices, however, Mosco~r would earn as much as x750 million annually if deliveries reached peak levels that the charges against his client are "ugly." He said the case against Tayylb will link Israeli and US intelligence services to the evacuation las: winter of Ethiopian Jews from Sudan. Sudanese officials, meanwhile, are still assuring the trial will skirt the foreign role in the operation and will focus only on Tayyib's acceptance M money for "illegal" purposes. Comment: The timing of Tayyib's tria;-which may start at any time-is extremely bad for him. Khartoum is rife with anti-Israeli and anti?US sentiment following Israel's recent raid on Tunis and the US interception of an Egyptian aircraN last week; there was apro- Palestinian demonstration in Khartoum on Tuesday. Detailed accounts in court of US and Israeli involvement in the secret evacuation of Fatasha Jews almost certainly would aggravate public indignation and endanger the security of US nationals in Khartoum In Blrief help Iirnit Soviet trade deficit with Argentina, now at 51.3 billion. - Press says anfiregime protests in Chile Tuesday were small but resulted in 400 arrests, some injuries ...included bombings by leftist terrorists that disrupted rail traffic ...Continuing agitation - Taiwan describing Vfce President Hush's visit to China as tJS attempt to shore up Deng's reform policies US using relations with China as bargaining chip at November meetinc in Geneva ...concerned visit harming Taipei's interests. - Vice Premier Li Peng to attend 35th anniversary of Chinese entry into Korean war next week in North Kona ...trying to balance high-level Soviet presence at V-J Day celebrations, to stop slide in - COCOM approval of new procedures eliminating prior review for many high-technology exports to China could facilitate trade with West, cut COCOM workload by half ...China has to provide - Ethiopian troops attacking rebel positions near insurgent stronghold at Nak'fa ...probably attempting to recapture area lost in August ...may be prelude to attack on totivn itself. - Violence widespr3ad in Colored areas in South Africa's western Cape Province in reaction to killing of three protesters ...police patrol recently fired upon in rare instance of nonwhites using guns ...execution Friday of ANC member who murdered policeman in 1982 likely to provoke additional violence. - Key Socialist party leader urging Spanish Prime Minister Gonzalez proceedings in papal trial Europe -Accused Turkish drug and arms smuggler on trial in absentia in Rome's papal plot case-Bekir Celenk-died Monday while in Turkish Custody ... sutopsv results awaited ...will complicate to cancel referendum on NATO ...thinks few voters care about such vote ...believes it could hurt Socialist reelection prospects. - Aging chief of Soriet party Defense industry Department replaced by specialist in radioelectronics ... latter a problem area for Soviets in design and production of advanced weapon systems. f i