EAST ASIA BIWEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0001393501
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: November 20, 2009
• Case Number: F-2006-00081
• Publication Date: January 24, 1978

East Asia
Biweekly Review
24 January 1978
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
APPROVED FOR RELEASE - CIA
INFO ^ DATE: 09-Oct-2009
RP EABR 78-003
24 January 1978
 Indonesia: Suharto's Opposition
Although Indonesian President Suharto seems assured
of reelection this March, the rising, more strident level
of opposition and the government's recent adoption of
harsh measures to blunt this dissent suggest that Suharto's
support has reached a new low. It is unlikely that the
President's opposition will decline after his anticipated
reelection, and this could affect his ability to complete
a third five-year term. Opposition groups, however, are
limited by their own internal weaknesses and lack of
military support. Nevertheless, should public disorder
result because of their efforts, high military circles
might begin to give serious consideration to replacing
Suharto.
The most vocal and publicized opponents of Suharto
are the students, who criticize him for his tolerance of
corruption, increasing neglect of the country's basic
economic and social needs, and refusal to delegate more
power to civilians. Earlier, these students simply
wanted Suharto to respond by making changes; recently,
however, some have begun calling for his ouster. Students
actively opposing Suharto, a minority of the total
student population, generally compose three groups:
-- Officially organized student councils, most
notably those of the University of Indonesia
in Jakarta, Gajah Mada University in Jog-
jakarta, and the Institute of Technology in
Bandung. These groups transcend the various
religious and ethnic divisions in the
country, and apparently have been the prime
movers of recent large-scale demonstrations.
-- Unofficial student organizations which are
divided along religious and ideological
lines. Among these groups, the Muslim
Islamic Student Union (HMI) is the least
factionalized. It reportedly is receiving
aid from the Moslem-dominated Unity Develop-
ment Party (PPP) to finance anti-Suharto
activities.
24 January 1978
6
'SEEREZ-,.
 -- Underground student activists who distribute
pamphlets critical of the government.
The government's closure last weekend of eight news-
papers in Jakarta and the arrest of approximately 100
students suggest Suharto's increasing apprehension of
the impact of the press and the students on the general
populace. Although Suharto's moderate tendencies con-
tinue to prevail--many of the students have been re-
leased--continued student disruption and the accompany-
ing decline in Suharto's prestige will probably lead to
more hard-line actions.
A second, and perhaps potentially more dangerous
opposition group, could develop in the devout Moslem
community. Until now, Muslim opposition to Suharto has
been limited to fanatic militant terrorist groups and
the PPP, although PPP leaders have not been immune to
blandishments of government posts. Suharto's insistence,
however, on recognizing mysticism as an official religion
may incite many otherwise nonextremist Muslims to take
to the streets. Such an event, combined with further
student demonstrations, would probably create sufficient
public disorder to erode some support for Suharto within
high military echelons. Suharto is reportedly trying
to compromise on this issue.
Some well-known civilian and retired military leaders
also are speaking out or working against Suharto:
-- Sawito Kartowibono, a former government official
who last year managed to obtain the signatures
of the highly respected former Vice President
Hatta and four influential religious leaders
on a letter critical of the Suharto regime.
The government has taken Sawito to court on
charges of conspiracy, a bizarre event which
has redounded to Suharto's disadvantage. The
trial has exposed detailed allegations of
corruption on the part of Mrs. Suharto.
-- General Abdul Haris Nasution, the only senior
general who survived the slaughter of generals
The govern-
as so far tolerated Nasution because
24 January 1978
 SE
of his stature and apparent reluctance to
participate in any opposition movement espousing
the use of force.
Major General Ishak Juarsa, a former Chief of
24 January 1978
8
Staff of the Siliwangi Division who was re-
called last year from his post as Ambassador
to Yugoslavia on charges of publicly, express-
less, he is probably concerned that their efforts might
-- Former Jakarta mayor Ali Sadikin, a popular
figure in the capital who is working with the
HMI to publish economic reports embarrassing
to the government.
Since none of these figures control troops, they
do not directly threaten Suharto's position. Neverthe-
Suharto's principal support.
encourage dissent among middle-echelon Army officers
Suharto's future thus depends-ultimately on whether
confidence of the military.
he can maintain sufficient public order to command the