STATUS AND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION PROGRAM

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00042134
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: May 14, 2018
• Case Number: F-2016-00405
• Publication Date: February 1, 1970

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Scientific and liapc,rt
STATUS AND TRENDS OF THM VoVliA 1,06610
AND CLIMATE MODIFICATIOn 1;w401AU
'OBI-8TIR/70-4h
February 197u
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Science and Uchiology
Office of Scientific Intelligeace
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'TAM ViND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER
AND LIMATE MODIFICATION PROGRAM
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STATUS AND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER AND CLIMATE
MODIFICATION PROGRAM
Proloa Orloff
NNW
061-STtlt/70-4
hiinoory 1170
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIRECTORATE OF SCIENCE AND TKHNOCOOY
MCI Of SCIINVIC INTIUJOINCI
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PREFACE
Weather modification Is directed toward changing meteorological
phenomena fors short period of time usually over relatively small areas.
Climate modification is directed toward changing meteorological plat-
omens over a long period of Urn. usually over a large area. Almost
weather modification techniques can be applied to some type of
military operation. Many have significant economic applications. Suc-
cessful techniques to increase precipitation or to dissipate severe storms
would benefit a country's economy considerably and could also support
militsuy operations. Techniques to dissipate or enhance fog and cloud
could have Important military applications, particularly fur tactical op-
erations. Even greater military and economic, as well as political, benefit
could be derived from a successful method of modifying the climate.
This report discusses Soviet progress In weather and climate modifi-
cation. ppoT1Thg basic mean mob as cloud physfce is also con-
sidered
This report, which updates an earlier study on weather and climate
modification published in August 1985, has been prepared by the Wee
of Scientific Intelligence and coordinated with the Directorate of Intern.
puce. The cutoff date of information used is October MK
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PS-3-01S
CONTENTS
?REFACE ....
PROBLEM � � 1
CONCLUSIONS 1
SUMMARY 3
DISCUSSION 3
Overall weather modification program 3
ROI ruppression 3
Precipitation augmentation 5
Cloud and fog dissipation
Severs storm modification
Related research 10
Climate modillation 11
UNCLASSIFIED REFERENCES 13
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STATUS AND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER AND
CLIMATE MODIFICATION PROGRAM
PROBLEM
..mmommm���
To determine the status and trends of Soviet research and develop-
ment in weather and climate msidification.
CONCLUSIONS
1. The Soviets have maintained a very large
weather modification R&D program for. number of
years but, despite the size of this program, they have
contributed no significant or unique advances to the
understanding of the phenomena involved. In cer-
tain instances the Soviets have been quicker than
tbo United States to introduce new weather modifi-
cation techniques into operational *styles. Their
climate modifiaition program is eta! In the con-
ceptual or bask research stage as lath. ease In
other countries.
2. Th Soviet weather modification program is
organized rind apparently has high-level con-
tralized direction. The Soviets have concentrated
their MD effort* in subfields they Judp to offer
the most promise for military and economic put.
p*... In the 10801 this concentration was on super.
cooled fog and cloud dissipation techniques, which
became operational about 1000. In the 1060. the
Soviets concentrated their MD efforts an hall sup-
prenion techniques.
3. 'The Soviets have conducted no known Said
experiments in climate modification. Conservetinn
Is d:vtated by their inability to predict what effceb
such experiments might have in geographical areas
outside the experimental area. The Soviets ars work-
ing on mathematical models of the atmosphere to
assist them in predicting these effects but their
progress has been hindered by the inadequacy of
their computers.
4. The concentrated Soviet effort of the past 10
years in hail suppression has progressed to the semi-
operational stage and the benefit-to-cost ratio ap-
pears to be about 5 to 1. Some scientific resources
used in this developmental effort probably will DOW
be diverted to other weather modification subfields.
The most Maly subfields for new Soviet MD ap-
pear to be warm fog and cloud modification and/at
modification of larger weather systems. Some in-
crease in the precipitation euvnentation effort also
seems possible.
h Although most of the Soviet weather modifica-
tion program appears to be unclassified, there is
cidence of classified MD hi warm cloud and fog
modification. Such modification techniques could
have immediate military applications for offensive
and defensive tactics! operations.
1
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SUMMARY
The major Soviet weather modification effort in
the 1950, was on supercuoled fog and cloud die-
sirtion. This effort culminated in the development
of II technique for clearing airports of supercooled
fog; a semioperational status was reached in the late
1950s, several years before the United State* began
a similar operational program.
After the fog dissipation project passed from the
R&D to the operational stage, a large portion of
the Soviet scientific resources was diverted to attack-
ing the problem of suppressing the number of
occurence. and severity of beilstonns in the USSR.
An experimental research area was established in
a grape-growing section of the Caucasus in the mid-
19501 and experiments began on a large scale about
1900. The motivation behind this program probably
was to a large extent the potential economic bene-
fits to agriculture, but a method for dissipating or
preventing hailstorms could also have military ap-
plications, particularly for protecting vulnerable
equipment such as aircraft and missiles.
The Soviet ha dissipation experiments have pro-
rhelseadthe Soviets first established the feasibility for
systematically through the past 10 years.
modifying hailstorms, they have concentrated on
conducting these experiments OM different types
of terrain, on developing a MOAN for introducing
reagents into the clouds, and on improving various
related techniques. According to the Soviet theory,
the time and place that ti reagent is introduced
Into the cloud is criticaL The use of aircraft was
judged to be inadequate and antiaircraft artillery
shells and rockets were developed for this purpose
The Soviets claim that their ball suppression re-
search program has been completely successful. The
andel Soviet estimate of the benefits versus coat
ratio is about 5 to 1 and this /etiolate probrbly Is
accurate. In 1967 the Soviet government made the
decision to expand these operations to all areas of
the country subject to significant hail damage, and
It now appears that they consider this program so
be at least semicsperational arid no longer experi-
mental.
Because the Soviets Lave emphasized supercooled
fog and cloud dissipation and hail suppression over
����
the put 15 to 20 years, they have put relatively
less effort into other subfields of weather modifica-
tion than has the United States. These eubfields in-
clude precipitation augmentation and warm fog
and cloud dissipation, both of which could have
significunt economic or military value if techniques
are perfected. The Soviets maintain only one 'mown
eizrable project (in the Ukraine) engaged in pre-
cipitation augmentation, but apparently it has pro-
duced no significant amounts of precipitation. Some
Increased activity in other geographical areas has
been noted in the past year.
Based on open sources, It appears that Soviet ex-
perimental research on warm fog and cloud dissipa-
tion Is in the initial stage, although there Is evidence
that at least one classified project was begun a few
years ago. One unclassified project is an attempt to
prevent fog from fanning over the Kola Bay by
covering the bay surface with a morromolecular film
that reduces the rate of evaporation. A recent in-
crease in Soviet basic research on hygroscopic nuclei
may indicate that experimental research on warm
fog and cloud dissipation using such nuclei win
receive greater emphasis.
Soviet experimentation on severe storms and
modification of large weather systems also is in ib
beginning stages and the Soviets have no known
projects which compare in size or complexity with
the US STORMFURY project to modify hurricanes.
Current Soviet work on severe storms appears to be
confined to experiments on individual cumulus
ckuds and thunderstorms. Some success has been
reported in iissipating thunderstorm; but the so-
viets need more data to make a final evaluation of
the multi. No information is available on recent
Soviet experiments on large weather systems, but
it appears that such wort will be stepped up.
Soviet scientists and engineers have discussed the
possibility of climate modification for many years,
particularly the prospects of melting the Arctic ice.
The well-known proposal by P. M. Rorisov to dam
the Bering Strait Is directed to this end but Soviet
scientists have warned that melting the Arctic ice
could have harmful effects on the climate in other
areas of the world. 71w uncertainty of these effects
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probably has kept field experimentation to a mini-
mum. Current basic Soviet research on the develop-
maul of realistic mathematical models of the atmos-
phere could greatly assist in predicting effects over
the entire Northern Hemisphere. The RESM.&
probably the best computer available for testing
these models, is not adequate for performing the
otAnplex computations in olvad, although even the
most advanced computers are not completely ade-
quate for this job.
The Soviets are actively engaged in research on
the microphysics of clouds and precipitation in sup-
port of weather modification. They are paRscularly
active in laboratory studies involving cloud cham-
bers. They also have been imaginative in applying
radar to cloud research and precipitation studies.
Soviet administrators of the weather modification
program have stated that there is a need for inten-
sifying these basic studies.
DISCUSSION
OVERALL WEATHER MODIFICATION
PROO RAM
The Soviets have maintained a large weather
modification program for about 20 years. In terms
of numbers of personnel h3volved1 it probably is the
largest in the world. It appears that the Soviets
maintain a much larger field experimental program
than the United States but that their related basic
research effort is smaller.' Consequently, the Soviets
generally have been quicker to test weather :no&
Smtion techaiques in the field than has the united
States.
The Soviets appear to have a well-organized pro-
gram.' High-level direction of the program is in-
dicated by their apparent ability to channel efforts
Into particular sub&Ids. Thus very intense work is
oanied out until a technique Is perfected to the
point that it can be used operationally or semlopere-
dangly. At that time, scientific resources ars di-
verted to another subfield. As an example, a large
Soviet effort in dissipating supercooled fop and
clouds was a � �arent in the middle and late 1960s.
When this ." qua was developed to the point
that it could be used operationally, the oonoeuese-
tion of effort was shifted to hail suppmion, where
It has been linos the early 19e0t. The decision as
to which subileld to concentrate the effort must be
mad* at high levels and probably is based 311 a
combination of factors, such as which areas appear
to be the most promising and which have the most
military and economic potential.
It is evident from the published literature that
the overall weather modification program In the
USSR underwent a considerable expansion in 1900-
1964, with a steady but slower growth rate since
then.' However, this expansion may have been more
apparent than real breause a general declauifica-
tiou of the program in the late 1950s may have re-
suited in an increase in published articles. Never-
theless, there is no question that the Soviet weather
fralification efforts have been increasing and they
probably will oontinue to do so. Further, high-level
Soviet officials have indicated that the future pro-
gram probably will have a better balance between
theoretical research and field experimentation."
flail suppression
The Soviets have continued to expand their ac-
tivities in hail suppression over the past 5 years.
This effort, which began in 1956 as a rather small
experimental effort in the Caucasus Mountains our
Mt. Elbrus, has now expanded to include areas of
the republics of Georgia, Moldavia, Tadzhildstan,
Ukraine, Armenia and Uzbekistan. Recently a co.
operative hail n.-pression project has also been ini-
tiated with Bulimia." The long time period and the
number of v�periments conducted probably have
given the Soviets more experience in this area of
weather modification than any other country.
The Soviet government made the decision in 1967
to expand the hail suppression operations to include
eventually all areas of the USSR that are subject
to significant hail damage." This decision leaves little
doubt that Soviet officials are convinced that the
method effectively reduces the amount of damaging
hail which fails, but there appears to be some ques-
tion as to the exact amount that hail damage is re-
duced. C. K. Sulalcvelldm, who leads the hag KT.
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pression effort in the Caucasus and who Is one of
the most enthusiastic proponents of the method
claims a benefit-to-cost ntlo ot about 17 to 1. The
official Hydrometeorological Service estimate of the
benefit-to-cost ratio appears to be &Lout 5 to 1.6
The more conservative estimate probably is closer
to the true value. Part of the discrepancy between
theirs. figures probably is due to different methods
of figuring the cost of the program. It is not entirely
clear bow the cost of such item as guns, rockets,
ammunition, and radars are figured into the Goa of
the program SilICO some of this equipment appear,
to be military surplus material." The benefits of
the program are calculated on the basis of insurance
claims 101' the protected areas compared with claims
for adjacent unprotected areas.'
The size of the hail suppression program in the
USSR indicates that It has passed from a strictly
experimental program into at least a semioperadonal
program It is not likely that the Soviet government
would decide to expand a strictly experimental pro-
gram into all hail-affected areas of the country.
Nevertheless, the fact that a control area is almost
Invariably established alongside a protected area
indicates that the Soviets do not consider the pro-
gram to be entirely operational at present, and they
ar� still interested in obtaining experimental data.
The principle behind the Soviet bail suppression
efforts is that certain portions of well-developed
convective clouds often have large accumulations
of moisture in a liquid supercooled state. The ice
particles which form as a result of the natural fret-x-
ins of droplets falling through these areas grow
rapidly and are transformed into hailstones. The
Soviet theory states that by injecting a large num-
ber of artificei crystallisation nuclei into the cloud,
the nuclei can convert the region of high, super-
cooled water content into small ice crystal*, thereby
eliminating the large supply of supercooled water
which is necessary for the formation of lualstones.'
According to the Soviet theory, the artificial nuclei
must be injected into the portion of the cloud which
has the high supercooled water content and they
must be placed there before the hailstones can grow
to a large size. Soviet observations and computations
show that large hailstones can be formed in a matter
of 5 to 10 mthutes after the hall forming process
begins.'
4
The Soviets rely heavily on radar to determine
where they want to seed the clouds." Their experi-
ence has shown that the radar reflectivity undergoes
a perceptible change in the area of the cloud where
the had formation is beginning. Either rockets or
100-mm antiaircraft artillery On used to deliver the
seeding agents to the cloud, and both delivs.y sys-
tems are tied into radar control points. Based on the
military precision with which they operate, the gun
craws appear to be either military personnel or
civilians who have had extensive training with the
guns.' The shells normally are loaded with a lead
Iodide reagent, and a timing device is used to ex-
plode the shell at a preselected point in the tra-
jectory. The rockets are equipped with two timing
devices: one to set the time of burning of thc
reagent and the other to set the time for parachute
deployment.' Possible danger to the local population
from antiaircraft shell fragment's or from rockets
landing in a populated area does not seem to con-
cern the Soviets greatly. They claim that the shells
fragment completely and that it is rare to find a
14(.00 as large as 1 gram on the ground.' The danger
from the rockets is minimised by the use of para-
chutes, and the rocket sites are established in rela-
tively unpopulated areas. Rocket firings must be
coordinated with civil and military aircraft author-
ities, who have veto power over rocket firings."
There is a certain degree of rivalry between the
groups using guns and those using rockets, but there
is no evidence that the Soviet decision makers have
any intention of adopting only one delivery method.
The rockets used in the program have undergone
continued improvement through the years and the
Soviets presently are using a multiple rocket
launcher capable of firing four rockets simulta-
neously. These rockets are approximately 5 ft. long
and have a range of about 3 lors. The new larger
Alazani rocket is now in Its final test phase. It has
a launcher capable of simultaneously launching
several rockets in different dimodons...
Each delivery system has certain advantages and
disadvantages. The antiaircraft artillery can deliver
a shell to a particular spot in the cloud,eith rela-
tively good accuracy. When the sh-11 explodes, a
large number of nuclei are then released in a rela-
tively small volume. A large storm would require a
large number of flrings to seed it completely. In one
operation observed by Western scientists, about MO
rounds were fired to seed one storm.' The rockets
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apparently also achieve good accuracy and they
have the ability to deliver the nuclei over a con-
siderable volume of the cloud. The number of nuclei
delivered per unit volume is not as high 111 in the
case of the shells, but the rockets are somewhat more
versatile in that they can be set to eject the nuclei
either in a horizontal trajectory through the cloud
or vertically as the rocket descends through the
cloud by parachute"
The hail suppression expedition located near tor-
meshta In Moldavia appears to be the most sci-
entifically oriented group of its kind in the USSR.
The Moldavian expedition is under the leadership
of 1.!. Cayvoroaskiy of the Centre! Aerological Ob-
servatory. Although all the hail suppression groups
study the result their efforts have on crop damage
by hall, only the Moldavian expedition apparently
has made any study of the effects their operations
have had on precipitation in the area of operations.
Cayvoronskiy's statistics, based on 10 years of ols-
servation, tend to show that his operations have had
little effect on precipitation in the area."
The overall Soviet hail suppression program is a
large, impressive effort which seems to dominate the
entire Soviet weather modification program.' The
Soviets have developed effective delivery systems
and have a well-coordinated program. The primary
benefit of hail modification is, as the Soviets have
stated, for the protection of crops. However, the
ability to dissipate hail storms could also be used
by the military to protect personnel and certain
valuable equipment. The Soviet use of lead iodide
as a seeding agent may be somewhat less esacient
than silver iodide, but is not a serious limitation
to the program.
Precipitation augmentation
Precipitation augmentation, a subfleld of weather
modification popularly referred to as rain-making,
has received a large percentage of the total weather
modification budget In the United States. In the
USSR, however, this subfield has received consid-
erably less effort than that of hell suppression, and
there is some indication that It is not receiving un-
qualified support at the top admintstntive
One reason may be the belief, expressed by some
Soviet officials, that the increase b precipitation
produced by cloud seeding has not been great
enough to make it economically feasible on a large
scale.' Another possible explanation is that the So-
viets may hr.ve decided to concentrate their re-
sources on hail suppression because the economic
benefits were more dear cut. Some Soviet scientific
resources allotted to hall suppression could be di-
verted to other areas of weather modification, such
as precipitation augmentation, as the hail suppres-
sion operations become less experimental and more
operational. In any case, there is little duubt that
the Soviets recognise that even a email increase in
precipitation at the right time and place can have
considerable economic benefits. Military benefits
from precipitation augmentation are less clear cut
but certain tactical operations could derive some
marginal benefits from such a program.
The largest Soviet weather modification effort to
Increase precipitation is a joint effort between the
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Research Institute
at Kiev and the WM Geophysical Observatory at
Leningrad." This project was established in 1958
and cloud seeding with dry ice has been carried
out continuously since 1939.'' The Ukrainian ex-
periments have been conducted using two IL-14
aircraft for dispensing dry ice Into the clouds.
In setting up this operation, the Soviets estab-
lished two areas of equal size (3,750 km") separated
by a distance of 30 km. All the cloud seeding experi-
ments have been conducted in the eastern area,
and the western area has been used as a control area.
Operating in this manner, the Soviets are able to
avoid contaminating the control area with seeding
nuclei because of the prevailing westerly winds in
the area. The Soviets set up a dense network of rain
guages in the two arms (one per every 10-12 km')
to make line-scale measurements of natural precipi-
tation in the control area and of that from cloud
seeding in the operating area. The experimental
area is also Instrumented with two radar Installa-
tions to observe areas of precipitation and to track
and control the aircraft doing the seeding."
Te Soviets have seeded stratus and stratocumulus
air man clouds as well as frontal-type clouds in the
Ukrainian operations. 'They have reported about a
10 percent increase in predpitation amounts when
operating on winter air mass clouds. However, the
scientists involved do not consider this a very sig-
nificant increase because the total water content of
these clouds Is very mail in the first place.' They
claim to have been more mccessful when operating
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on frontal-type clouds, with some claiming as much
as a 20 to �5 percent increase while others, only
about 15 percent.' "U this magnitude of precipita-
tion augmentation could be achieved for all frontal
cloud situations, it could be quite significant. How-
ever, the Soviets have determined that only about
50 percent of the winter frontal-type clouds are fa-
vorable for seeding."
Since 1980 the Ukrainien expedition has also
systematically seeded summer cumulus clouds. From
1900 to 1988 the Soviets seeded when possible all
clouds which exceed 1141 lon in depth and whose
temperature at cloud top was lower than �5' C.
These parameters had been established, through
previous Soviet investigations, as being necessary
for favorable seeding conditions. The amount of
precipitation which fell over the operational area
was then compared with the amount which fell
over the control area to determine the effectiveneu
of the experiments. The results showed some in-
crease in the seeded area, !An the increase was not
Large enough to rule out the possibility that it could
have been a chance occurrence."
Beams' of this uncertainty in the multi, the So-
viets changed their approach in 1900 and began the
random selection of the clouds to be seeded. The
evaluation of these randomized experiments involves
the comparison of the amoure of precipitation from
the seeded clouds with the amount horn the un-
seeded clouds. These experiments have not been
under way long enough for them to make a definite
conclusion about the effectiveness of the sxperl-
meats; however, preliminary results have not been
particularly encouraging." Perhaps the most sig-
nificant aspect of these experiments is that this is
the ant time the Soviets have been known to use
this technique. One of the criticisms of the Soviet
weather modification experiments in the past has
been the lack of statistical controls far evaluation
purposes. Randomization Is 4 technique commonly
used by Western scientists to establish such con-
trols, and recent Information indicates that the So-
viets will be using it more in the future."
Scientbta involved in the Ukrainian experiments
have subjected their data to analysis to determine
whether or not the cloud seeding operations re.
suited in any decrease in precipitation downwind
from the operating area." Several specialists hi the
field have postulated that such a decrease might
occur, but the researchers in the Ulcraine turned up
no detectable decrease. However, they have reported
that a secondary maximum in precipitation down-
wind from the operating area seems to be indicated.
This woondary maximum, if real, is quite small and
probably will have little significance on the overall
precipitation pattern producci by the cloud seeding
operations.
The only other known sizable Soviet effort to
augment precipitation is a project in northern Ka-
zakhstan under the control of the Kazakh Scientific
and Experimental Hydrometeorological Institute."
This effort apparently has been under way 111101)
about 1983, but Intl, else is known about it. The
fact that prectioally nothing has been published
(oncoming this Lifort Is untlitlah it could indicate
that certain aspects of the project are classified, or
it might indicate that the operations there are being
conducted with little scientific analysis of the re-
sults of the experiments. A recent press report has
mentioned another operation designed to augment
precipitation in the Yakutia ASSR. According to the
report, an experiment was conducted to produce
rain in the area of a forest fire; however, It is not
clear from the report whether this was part of an
established weather modification program or was
carried out on an ad hoc basis."
Cloud and fog dissipation
Much of the early effort by the Soviets in weather
modification apparently was devoted to the dissipa-
tion of supercooled fog and clouds, which has par-
ticular application for military and civil air opera-
tion& This wort proved the feasibility of using cloud
seeding techniques. After the feasibility was estab-
lished, the major remaining problem was to develop
reliable and economical techniques for dispersing
the seeding agents. As early as 1958 the Soviets
claimed that they were using dry ice on at least a
semi-operational basis to dissipate supercooled fogs
over airports in the USSR. At present the Soviets op-
erationally clear supercooled fogs at 10 to 12 airports
using ground equipment that blows flakes of 00,
to a height of 20 meters. These flakes are produced
from tanks each containing 25 kg of liquid 00s;
four tanks are used to seed at 8.5 kg per minute.In
the early 19801 the Soviets reported experiments
on clearing large areas (up to 90,000 km') of super-
cooled clouds. Successful operstaions of this type
could have considerable military potential for be-
Inn
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tical air, land, and sea operations, and ars of con-
siderable scientific interest because the energy in.
approaches that required to cause a meas-
urable perturbation in atmospheric circulation. No
recent reference has been found to any further op-
erations involving large areas, although at a recent
meeting. Ye- K. Fedorm, chief of the Main Ad-
ministration of the Hydrometeorologioal Service
(CUCMS), dated that more work should be done
on large cloud systems!
Work still continues in the USSR on supet000led
cloud and fog dispersal, but the major eon of
Soviet scientists in this rubfield has been diverted
to the much more perplexing problem of dissipating
warm clouds and fop., Warm clouds and fogs are
much more prevalent than supercooled types, and
they are much less susceptible to modification: The
Soviet wenn cloud and fog effort is led by the Main
Geophysical Observatory In Leningrad with the
cooperation of the Central Aerological Observatory
In Dolgoprudnaya, the Institute of Experimental
Meteorology in Obninsk, and the Ukrainian sci.
instill� Research Hydrometeorological Institute in
Kiev.** Any successful techniques developed in
warm cloud and fog dispersal would have consid-
erable military, civil, and scientific significance.
The Soviet program for mod4ing warm clouds
and fogs generally has proceeded along lines similar
to those of Western countries that are active in (hr
kid. The meter Soviet effort has been devoted to
determining the feasibility of using heat sources
and of seeding with hygroscopic or surfactant ma-
terials.* 81 The available information indicates that
the Soviets have not yet settled on any one tech-
nique but that they are still searching for a workable
method"
Heat sources have been us....1 least since World
War rt when the British devel000d the fog in-
vestigation dispersal operations (FIDO) system
to dissipate warm lop over runways. The prin.
dple behind this method is that the additicn of
offyposcopic materials LAW the property at Increasing
the condensation of maw vapor. aid such materials as
N. sad Coal am commonly nat.! as hygroscopk preding
apnat. Surfactant materials reduce the surface Wigan of the
cd or fog droplets, which moan is a more tspld woke-
cent rate of the droplets. Whoa the droplet, pow
moist through this room, they fall out as nap oe mit
and cloud or fog should dissipate provided the efficiency
greet enough.
heat will result in the evaporation of the fog. The
heat may be applied from below, as with the FIDO
system, or from above. The addition of beat from
above is a commonly observed natural phenomenon
when ground fog is dissipated after the sun rises
In the morning. In principle, this process can be
assisted and speeded up by adding a beat absorb-
ing material, such as carbon black, to the top of
(befog deck thus increasing the absorption of the
solar radiation. The addition of beat to eveporate
a warm fog is a proven technique; however, US
studies to date have determined that It is only
marginally cost affective. Nevertheless, at some lo-
csoons where fog is very prevalent this method
may prove to be worthwhile. The French have
made the decision to install let aircraft engines
underground alongside the runways at Orly Air.
field to provide the necessary heat la dissipate warm
fog&
There is some evidence that the Soviets currently
consider the heat source technique to be the most
practical, at least for situations where there is a
requirement for rspid fog di:sip:ion as might be
molted for aircraft operations aayvoronskiy of
ti Central Aerological Observatory cites these
figu.ds from theoretical calculations: for a warm
fog 50 m thick with a water content of 0.1 gm/ms,
110 cal/m' of beat are required to divers, the
fog in 0.5 minute. To perform the same rate of
clearing with hygroscopic' particles, hundreds of
kilograms of secg material per second would
be required Coyvoronskiy further points out that
the beating method contributes little pollution to
the atmosphere, is fast acting, and is not de-
pendent on the varying microphysical character's.
tics of fogs. Hs concludes from this that thermal
methods of warm fog dispersal should be given
preference over others."
Although there has been some laboratory work
reported by the Soviets on hygroscopic and sur-
factant materials, there hu been surprisingly little
of actua repo ta-
lion.
however, one Soviet Scientist has 'tat
that Ms laboratory work In this field which for-
merly was unclassified has now been classified by
the Soviet niggle:y.1' This indicates that the pub-
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not give a true picture tuation, and
Sold esperhnentatton on the dissipation of wenn
clouds and fogs vasY kWh' 111 under way In the
USSR.
The reason such MD has been classified by the
Soviets is not entirely obvious. There is no quution
that the development of a successful method to dis-
sipate warm clouds and fog would have important
military implications, but other types of weather
modification, which they do not classify, also have
such implications. Warm cloud and lag dissipation
has the obvious potential for *Irma operations
and many ground and sea battle /Nations. Other
mesons for the classification could he that the So.
Wets have discovered a technique which they bei
hew to be superior to techniques under develop!.
moot by other countries or that itr potential is
greater than other subfields of weather modification.
In contrast to the general lack of Information on
Soviet field experiments on warm cloud and fog
dissipation, one field project to disperse fog OM
Kola Bay has been reported rather frudY. This
project is under the direction of the Uhransmi idea.
title Research Hydrometeorological Institute, and
personnel from Kiev State University and the hi ur.
mend Administration of the Hydrometeorologicel
Service also are involved." These everiments were
started in the winter of 1964-1965 to determine
the feasibility of dispersing warm fogs over the bay
by covering the water surface with a monomoleculer
film of higher fatty alcohols. In theory, such a Alm
should reduce the evaporation from the water our-
face thereby cutting off the moisture supply which
Is responsible for the formation. of the fog. Although
the Soviets have claimed some success with this
technique, no spectacular results aro apparent.'
One interesting mule the Soviets have reported
from these experiments is that when the winds are
stronger than 7 misery (about 15 mph) the Alm is
destroyed.' Nevertheless, the Soviets have been
successful In dissipating warm fog using thew tech-
niques when the proper conditions have existed
However, they have found that very largo quantities
of reagents are needed to clear large areas. Presently
they are using kerosene as a solvent for the fatty
alcohol reagent, and this presents d problem when
large quantities are Involved. Consequently, the
Soviets are searching for other solvents which could
be used for spreading an effective film on the
water.*
One laboratory experiment has been Maned
which has interesting possibilities if it proves to be
successful. it was an attempt to coat the fog droplets
rather than the sea surface with a monomolocular
film of higher alcohols." If this technique were suc-
cessful, it should reduce evaporation within the
fog or cloud and thereby prolong rather than reduce
the lifetime of the fog or cicrud. The capability to
prolong cloud or fog lifetime could be used in many
tactical military situations but there an ieee Ob-
vious situations where such a technique would
have an economle application. This experiment was
reported at a 1966 conference in the Soviet Union
and no further information has appeared. This could
Indicate that the Soviets have found the technique
to be infeasible under natural conditions u op-
posed to the laboratory conditions under which
it was first tested with some reported success. On
the other hand, it could also Indicate that work has
continued but has been classified because of military
implications.
Severe storm modification
The Soviets have reported no experiments to
modify large severe storms comparable with the
US STORM FURY project, which is designed to
study the effects of modification techniques on
hurricanes. However, the Soviets have conducted
numerous experiments on individual cumulus clouds
and some on fully developed thunderstorms. 'Mese
experiments in general haw been designed to stop
the growth of the cumulus clouds before they reach
the thunderstorm stage or. In the case of the experi-
ments on cumulonimbus clouds, to reduce the effects
after the thunderstorm stage has been reached. In
one let of experiments, the Soviets have attempted
to produce the opposite ttifecti that is, to induce the
growth of email cumulus clouds Into mature cumu-
lonimbus clouds. Such experiments, if suoceerful,
would have application both for military and dvil
operations. The ability to prevent Were thunder-
storms would be useful for protecting vulnerable
military equipment such as aircraft or missiles and
for protecting exposed personnel. The ability to pro-
duce thunderstorms could be used as an offensive
weapon In tactical situations.
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A group of sclentiets under the leadership of
the Central Aerological Observatory is conduct-
ing an experimental field program in the C.eor-
gian SSA to dissipate rapidly growing cumulus
and cumulonimbus clouds. This project Is designed
to destory the ascending currents within the cloud
and to change them to descending currents. The
downward motion 'tops the vertical growth of the
cloud and, if it continues long enough, will result
� srventually in the destruction at the cloud!' al In
these experiments the Soviets have seeded the grow-
ing cumulus clouds with intoluable particles of 3 to
30 Wixom. Different seeding agents have been
�
tested but clay and cement have been the most
commonly used. In some of the later experiments
a CuO powder also has been tested. The seeding
agent is dispensed in fairly large quantities (up to
50 kg have been used) from an I1-28 jet aircraft.
The material Is ejected into the tloud where upward
motion Is the greatest; tests helm been conducted
on clouds of up to 10 lun in vertical extent:" Ac
cording to recent Information, the Soviets have con-
ducted experiments of this type on 500 cumulus
clouds and on 05 cumulonimbus clouds which had
reached the thunderstorm stage." The Soviets claim
that effects from the seeding were observable on 02
of the 05 experiments on cumulonimbus cloak and
almost all of the cumulus clouds showed an effect."
The first effect usually observed alter seeding was
a noticeable darkening of the cloud followed by
lamination and evaporation. Preeipitation often was
� noted falling from the cloud following the seeding,
but this usually was very light and in many cases
evaporated before reaching the ground. In the
majority of cases reported, complete dissipation
of the cumulus cloud occurred in 20 to 30 minutes.
although remnants of middle or high level clouds
� often persisted." To minimize the possibilities that
these effects could have occunwd naturally, the
Soviets have conducted all the experiments between
1300 and 1600 hn local time when convection
normally is at lb greatest They also have observed
the behavior of untreated clouds in the vicinity of
operations to determine whether any of these dls
� sfpated naturaDy. Visual and Instrumented obierve-
tions of the result, of these experiments have been
carried out from an IL-14 aircraft end by ground.
� based radars." Apparently DO attempt bas been
made up to the present to randomize the expert-
menb, and it is therefore difficult to judge the but
�
--el, ,� e� - ., 't --A ! t ...
,-.:�,,' ,k:- .'..
.., ;- s '2-�'',%:'
,1' 4.,�..
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efficacy of tire work. However, the results repcssed
are rather impressive and inclicrite that the So ,on!ts
have hero able to eissipote at least some cumulus
and etomilonirninis clouds under proper oundit.olis.
Another project, similar in p.inciple but sinallti
In magnitude and using different techntque,, us
bring carried out by personnel from the lastitioce
of Experimental Meteorology. This project raiz is
directed toward the dissipation of cumulus ch.imis
by creating artificial downdrafts, but ains-aft lets
are used instead of cloud seeding agents." jet ant-
cleft are flown through the clouds at high pitch
angles, thereby directing their let dcwrie rid
through the cloud. Nine experiments of this type
have ken reported, and in all asses some e4tex:.t
was noted. According to the Soviet report, the cloris
either completely dissipated, broke into piu:s, gw
ceased their vertical growth. The operations mule
carried out on cumulus clouds ranging from 5 I4 6
km in vertical extent." Although positive re-4.111s
were reported from these experiments, the neets.itv
of flying the aircraft through the clouds probably
will limit the usefuliteu of this teehniciae to a
considerable degree.
The seine expetinienters together with personnel
(ruin the State Scientific Research Institute of Civil
Aviation have tested the feasibility of using jet air.
craft engine's on the ground to create artificial bp.
drafts in an attempt to stimulate the growth Of
cumulus clouds into cumulonimbus clouds. During
dry weather in the summer, cumulus clouds often
will form but will he prevented from develophig
Into cumulonimbus clouds by a temperature In-
version at some level in the free atmosphere. In
theory, If an ascending current could be pmduce41
that could penetrate this Inversion, the cloud might
continue to grow and eventually to produce rain
An analysis of several years' data showed that 75
percent of the summer inversions over Moscow
could as penetrated b this manner, and in 12ta
an experimental apparatus was set up near Borispot
Four jet engines were joined so that their exhatuit
jets all fed into one vertically directed vent. Derenty
experiments wer�carririd out to test the technique.
In most cases the Soviets reported that small cu-
mulus clouds were formed over the jets. In the
case where natural clouds were already present.
they generally became larger in size. In a few
cases the clouds darkened et the base and occs�
Atonally produced rain. According to Soviet reports,
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they plan to continue these experiments and increase
the number of jet eneines used from four to tows
These multi reported thus fu by the Soviets do
not appear to be wry significant. The use of addi-
tional engines might produce better mulls, but the
fuel consumption Is likely to make this technique
marginal at best with regard to cost affectiveoess.
However, cost may not be a factor for a military
system, and the Soviets might continue MD on this
technique if further testing Indicates that ft may
be ntilitartly useful. �
Related num*
Despite the relatively large math's modification
research effort that has been carried out over a
number of years, there are still several questions
relating to the basic physics of clouds and precipita-
tion that are still not completely undentood. One
of the unresolved microphysical problems of cloud
and precipltatice processes concerns the Initial
stages of rain formation through coalescence of
water droplets. A requirement tor relatively simple,
reliable Sold butrumon igloo for measuring the con-
ambitions of atmospheric Ice nuclei still has to
be met. Further, much work needs to be done on
measuring and reproducing In mathematical models
the atmospheric motions In and around clouds."
The Soviets have recognized the unsolved Fob.
Isms in basic cloud and precipitation physics, and
they have conducted an active research program
for many years In these area& In general, however,
it appears that the Soviets lag the United States
in these theoretical aspects of their research! '111w
Soviets have acknowledged that they are weaker
In the basic research than in the apartmentsl work,
and Ye. L Fedorov lrs stated that one of his ob.
kattvai ft to strengthen that portion of the program
to increase the understanding of the physke of
what really happens.' u
The Soviets have relied heavily on aloud cham-
bers to collect basic data for their microplsydeal
studies on clouds. The Institute of Experimental
Meteorology at Obninsk has at Its disposal three
large cloud chambers, two with a volume of 100 mt
and one with a volume of 3,900 mi.1 11 The latter
chamber Is on. of the largest in the world, and one
of Its advantages Is that ft allows larger volumes
of clouds to be studied. 'The 15�as height of this
chamber also allows the Soviets to study the diets
10
of seeding nuclei on the water droplets as the nuclei
fall down through the artificial aloud. A distinct
disadvantage of the chamber is that the temperature
can be regulated only between 111� and WC, and
the pressure can be mutated only between 1.0
and 11 atm." Although them restrictions are not
very serious for the study of low-level clouds, they
are unreal for higher level clouds. This chamber
Is highly Instrumented to collect microphysioal
data from the artificial clouds contained in ft. One
Impressive Instrument used on this chamber Is a
photoelectric, sensor which measures the drop size
distribution In the air that Is funneled past the
counter. This Instrument can be set to measure
particles In Increments of 4-micron steps, the small-
est being I microns."
The two smaller cloud chambers at the Institute
of Experimental Meteorologic are much more versa-
tile than the larger chamber. These cloud chambers
are designed so that the temperature can be rep-
fated between �50� and OM, and the pressure can
be regulated from 0.05 to 10 atm." Thus these
chunbon provide for a more nearly real atmosphere
than the larger facility and for most research they
may be more useful. The Soviets are building a
200 m' cloud chamber at the Institute of Geophysics
under the Georgian Academy of Sciences! This
chamber will have the capability of reaching tem-
pastures as low as �40*C but its pressure capa-
bility is not known. ?nowt plans are to instrumer�
this facility with optical lasers and a 1-cm radar to
measure the moisture content of the clouds which
we produced. It appears that this will be an excel-
lent research facility when completed, but it is
somewhat questionable whether the staff at the
Institute will be capable of utilizing it to its fullest
astent.0
The Soviets have abo been actively Investigating
the miceophrical propertise of clouds using Wm-
mooted &karat and radar. These Inns of imitt1.1*
lions are necessary to supplement the cloud chamber
studies bemuse, no matter haw sophisticated a cloud
chamber Is, It Is impossible to duplicate all the
recesses and interactions found in the real at-
mosphcra Instrumented airomft, which traditionally
have berm widely used for collecting mlarophysical
data, are still used, but modern radars are now
matins ft possible to collect much of this data
Indirectly. Aircraft messurernena suffer from several
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limitations amens which are the Multi's in lying
through convecrtu-type amide and problems in
developing inetrumenn that will make accurate
measurements of the oweersay parameters.
Soviet developeent of radars for these purpose,
IlezheninF has kept isoe with welt= deV010$4111111b.
They have dons a great deal of work with dual
frequency radars: 3- and 10-cos radars are used
extensively in the hail suppression propose to die-
crtminate between bail and nonhall clouds. Inform-
tion from the two radars is fed into one radar cow
sole, which then directly presents the difference
between the refactivity of the cloud in the two
wavelengths on both the plan position iediostor
and the A-scops! The Soviets claim that this
differeodes technique is very accurate in discrimi-
nating between those clouds which produce hail and
thou which do not. They also use the dual fre-
quency technique to determine the intensity of pre-
dpitation. In this cue they use wavelengths of OAS
and 3.1 cm. By maturing the differences in reilm
tivity and absorption in these two wavelengths, the
Soviets claim that they are able to overcome the
problems of variable drop rises in the cloud, which
rusks such measurements on single frequency radars
di/Scull." The Soviet capabilities for processing
the dual frequency radar information in real time
are impressive, and it appears that this technique
should be useful for studies of clouds and procipi-
tatim." The Soviets also use radar methods for
othw mierophysioal measurements of clouds, and
it appears that their use of radar and radar process-
ing equipment for these studies will be expanded."
The Soviets also are actively engaged in seeding.
nuclei research. At the prompt time they seem to
favor the use of Ind bade, probably bemuse It is
readily available to them!" The United States
favor; the use of raver iodide over lead iodide be-
cause US techniques for crystalization have not
worked well with lead iodide. However, appears
to work satisfactorily with Soviet pyrotechnic
methods! The Soviets have expressed some conown
about the toxic effects of lead iodide and they have
tatted many other substances in the laboratory and
some In the field They seem to favor copper made
at the present time to mist* lead Iodide as the
primary seeding nuclei. They claim to have deoal.
aped a powdered form of copper sulfide that mu
produce about IV nuclei per grant, which is vary
good. They have also indicated that they have
enough confidence in copper rade as a seeding
nuclei to bests using it in their hail suppression
f=' This could be quite apifloant if nooses-
use copper Wilde is a much cheep, prod-
uot than sayer Iodide. Organic materials, hygro-
scopic nuclei, and various insoluble materials are
also being ktuatipted intensively, particularly for
use on nonrupercooled clouds and fop
C:LIMATI MODIFICATION
The Soviets have shown an interest In climate
modrticetion for many years. This interest probably
Is partly due to the unfavorable climate which pre
-
veils over mod of the USSR. In addirton a moms-
NI climate modillostion technique could have con-
adorable apnoea�e for both tactical and strategic
military operations. Many schemes have been pro-
posed in the Soviet Union for melting the Arctic icie
and thus moderating the average temperatures of
the northern areas of the country. One of the oldest
and best known proposals is that of P. M. Borisov,
who has advocated damming the Daring Strait.
Borisov's concept is to pump water from the Arctic
Ocean through a dam into the Facile Ocala
In turn, would draw the warmer water from the
Atlantic Often through the Arctic Ocean and even-
bully melt the ice." Borisov claims that the ke in
the Arctic Oman would be completely melted in
three years, and that owe molted, it would not
return. Borisov, an engineer, claims that this project
Is technically feasible, and scientiSc studies at the
Main Geophysical Observatory tend to support his
claim that the icar would not re-form coos it was
melted. However, M. I. Budyko, director of the
Main Geophysics! Observatory, has pointed out
that his studies show that melting the Arctic ice
could have adverse effects on the climate of the
temparatiie raw of the USSR." Despite this warn-
ing, Borisov pwiodkally IIIVivell his proposal for
damming the Bering Strait.
Although the Soviets have apparently approached
the proposal for large-scale melting of the ice In
the Arctic with caution, they have developed and
tool other techniques for molting los on a smeller
scale. One technique which they have used for
mg* pan is to Mier' the surface of tbs fos
en Increase the amount of' solar maw absorbed by
the surface. The Soviets pm* have concluded
that this technique is feasible, although some tech-
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\now
akal difficulties hoe bees encountered with the
use of carbon black as the blackening agent. During
recent years the Soviets efferently have been using
coal dust rather than larboa black as the Maiming
agent, and this seems to have eliminated some of
the early problemes hrsoonel from the Antio and
Antarctic Scientific lteesamb Withal developed
this technique. They claim that, using esed putsch.
$.4 millimeters in sire, they can melt a volume of
icedf about 3 lane in area and meters thick. Ap
proximately SOO tons of coal duet applied at be.
quern intervals are required to melt thh %ohms
al s' It can be seen bow them figurer that a
very large logs* effort vrould be required to melt
the lugs areas of ice In the Arctic Ocean using
this technique, but Ye. Z. Wens has stated that
it could be done."
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The lack of quantitative data as what dab
lergeecole climate modification in the Arctic would
have on other arm al the owing probably has
been the governing factor against proceeding with
experiments of this type. Quantitative data of this
type probabit, will Dot be available until satisfactory
mathematical models of the atmospheric circulation
can be developed. A group at the Computing Cada
of the Siberia' Division of the Academy of Soicooss
Is very active in the development of such models.
However, the but computer available to this group
tbe BUM 11, which b Dot adequate fat testing the
very sophisticated models required in the geld of
climate modilication. Until new and improved WM
puler, become available and realistic atmospheric
model" are developed, largnecole climate modifian
don experimenn probably will not be ilekl totted
by the Wax �
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11 Notelysako, Ts. Ye., Lalsov, 3. N., and Movies, I. P.
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19. Gaivoroneld7, L I,Kresnorthays. sad Salary'',
A. D. "Artificial Law Cloud and Fog Dissipadoe," Stli Al.
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Sou, 13-111 Mar 88.
$O. JPASs 47180, 90 Deo II, Salthsoors, R. A,
Ye. C., and Tamara, P. 8. "limalts of Shea To=
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eadiption if dm Pouebbthf of Itabng Pop with let.
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134