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February 1, 1970
Os � � � lepproved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134g A 111 aaiiimii III IMO Scientific and l'echn ical Intelligence Repo IT Statur and Tim& of sir Soviet Weather and Climate MoiltiAation Pfograrn hi 1c1 1 16110 111 191 0$1-4r11RI704 February 1V10 � C�PY Nit 292 4111 7 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 �'I'Approved for Release: 018/01/30 C00042.1.3441 3iIIiI11115147Ale**Itig ReferencoH t,e Scientific and liapc,rt STATUS AND TRENDS OF THM VoVliA 1,06610 AND CLIMATE MODIFICATIOn 1;w401AU 'OBI-8TIR/70-4h February 197u CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Science and Uchiology Office of Scientific Intelligeace Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 'TAM ViND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER AND LIMATE MODIFICATION PROGRAM Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 pprov-ed for Release: 2018/01/30 CO'0042.134alaaataiethi'riX 0. � )41 � aim ALL � � 1.1. � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 41, - Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 � � . � � go, � � . .11 i � � . 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'e. , i ," 2 ' t � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 � m'ill'11114114611111161A----- Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134110141214666Alkimailikikaaimmidr� � � � � STATUS AND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION PROGRAM Proloa Orloff NNW 061-STtlt/70-4 hiinoory 1170 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DIRECTORATE OF SCIENCE AND TKHNOCOOY MCI Of SCIINVIC INTIUJOINCI � :q ,j-.141 ;. ',.� � . ii � �,; .3 .31.� "kik' � � � Pik .4.01.dr Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 � � I. 1.� PREFACE Weather modification Is directed toward changing meteorological phenomena fors short period of time usually over relatively small areas. Climate modification is directed toward changing meteorological plat- omens over a long period of Urn. usually over a large area. Almost weather modification techniques can be applied to some type of military operation. Many have significant economic applications. Suc- cessful techniques to increase precipitation or to dissipate severe storms would benefit a country's economy considerably and could also support militsuy operations. Techniques to dissipate or enhance fog and cloud could have Important military applications, particularly fur tactical op- erations. Even greater military and economic, as well as political, benefit could be derived from a successful method of modifying the climate. This report discusses Soviet progress In weather and climate modifi- cation. ppoT1Thg basic mean mob as cloud physfce is also con- sidered This report, which updates an earlier study on weather and climate modification published in August 1985, has been prepared by the Wee of Scientific Intelligence and coordinated with the Directorate of Intern. puce. The cutoff date of information used is October MK � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 000042134 611.11 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 I I .1 1 III 11.4. - 14 PS-3-01S CONTENTS ?REFACE .... PROBLEM � � 1 CONCLUSIONS 1 SUMMARY 3 DISCUSSION 3 Overall weather modification program 3 ROI ruppression 3 Precipitation augmentation 5 Cloud and fog dissipation Severs storm modification Related research 10 Climate modillation 11 UNCLASSIFIED REFERENCES 13 t .� *� . � � .* w 41 ��� , � $ � a, � Ail f : � � Sr. V .41 uti � a* 1. �;r; � . �t NA 41,�� mr�,� Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 a aloa V 41 AM& &Oral & 'Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134"� I' � "' "Is""111" 64111/' STATUS AND TRENDS OF THE SOVIET WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION PROGRAM PROBLEM ..mmommm��� To determine the status and trends of Soviet research and develop- ment in weather and climate msidification. CONCLUSIONS 1. The Soviets have maintained a very large weather modification R&D program for. number of years but, despite the size of this program, they have contributed no significant or unique advances to the understanding of the phenomena involved. In cer- tain instances the Soviets have been quicker than tbo United States to introduce new weather modifi- cation techniques into operational *styles. Their climate modifiaition program is eta! In the con- ceptual or bask research stage as lath. ease In other countries. 2. Th Soviet weather modification program is organized rind apparently has high-level con- tralized direction. The Soviets have concentrated their MD effort* in subfields they Judp to offer the most promise for military and economic put. p*... In the 10801 this concentration was on super. cooled fog and cloud dissipation techniques, which became operational about 1000. In the 1060. the Soviets concentrated their MD efforts an hall sup- prenion techniques. 3. 'The Soviets have conducted no known Said experiments in climate modification. Conservetinn Is d:vtated by their inability to predict what effceb such experiments might have in geographical areas outside the experimental area. The Soviets ars work- ing on mathematical models of the atmosphere to assist them in predicting these effects but their progress has been hindered by the inadequacy of their computers. 4. The concentrated Soviet effort of the past 10 years in hail suppression has progressed to the semi- operational stage and the benefit-to-cost ratio ap- pears to be about 5 to 1. Some scientific resources used in this developmental effort probably will DOW be diverted to other weather modification subfields. The most Maly subfields for new Soviet MD ap- pear to be warm fog and cloud modification and/at modification of larger weather systems. Some in- crease in the precipitation euvnentation effort also seems possible. h Although most of the Soviet weather modifica- tion program appears to be unclassified, there is cidence of classified MD hi warm cloud and fog modification. Such modification techniques could have immediate military applications for offensive and defensive tactics! operations. 1 .44 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 SUMMARY The major Soviet weather modification effort in the 1950, was on supercuoled fog and cloud die- sirtion. This effort culminated in the development of II technique for clearing airports of supercooled fog; a semioperational status was reached in the late 1950s, several years before the United State* began a similar operational program. After the fog dissipation project passed from the R&D to the operational stage, a large portion of the Soviet scientific resources was diverted to attack- ing the problem of suppressing the number of occurence. and severity of beilstonns in the USSR. An experimental research area was established in a grape-growing section of the Caucasus in the mid- 19501 and experiments began on a large scale about 1900. The motivation behind this program probably was to a large extent the potential economic bene- fits to agriculture, but a method for dissipating or preventing hailstorms could also have military ap- plications, particularly for protecting vulnerable equipment such as aircraft and missiles. The Soviet ha dissipation experiments have pro- rhelseadthe Soviets first established the feasibility for systematically through the past 10 years. modifying hailstorms, they have concentrated on conducting these experiments OM different types of terrain, on developing a MOAN for introducing reagents into the clouds, and on improving various related techniques. According to the Soviet theory, the time and place that ti reagent is introduced Into the cloud is criticaL The use of aircraft was judged to be inadequate and antiaircraft artillery shells and rockets were developed for this purpose The Soviets claim that their ball suppression re- search program has been completely successful. The andel Soviet estimate of the benefits versus coat ratio is about 5 to 1 and this /etiolate probrbly Is accurate. In 1967 the Soviet government made the decision to expand these operations to all areas of the country subject to significant hail damage, and It now appears that they consider this program so be at least semicsperational arid no longer experi- mental. Because the Soviets Lave emphasized supercooled fog and cloud dissipation and hail suppression over ���� the put 15 to 20 years, they have put relatively less effort into other subfields of weather modifica- tion than has the United States. These eubfields in- clude precipitation augmentation and warm fog and cloud dissipation, both of which could have significunt economic or military value if techniques are perfected. The Soviets maintain only one 'mown eizrable project (in the Ukraine) engaged in pre- cipitation augmentation, but apparently it has pro- duced no significant amounts of precipitation. Some Increased activity in other geographical areas has been noted in the past year. Based on open sources, It appears that Soviet ex- perimental research on warm fog and cloud dissipa- tion Is in the initial stage, although there Is evidence that at least one classified project was begun a few years ago. One unclassified project is an attempt to prevent fog from fanning over the Kola Bay by covering the bay surface with a morromolecular film that reduces the rate of evaporation. A recent in- crease in Soviet basic research on hygroscopic nuclei may indicate that experimental research on warm fog and cloud dissipation using such nuclei win receive greater emphasis. Soviet experimentation on severe storms and modification of large weather systems also is in ib beginning stages and the Soviets have no known projects which compare in size or complexity with the US STORMFURY project to modify hurricanes. Current Soviet work on severe storms appears to be confined to experiments on individual cumulus ckuds and thunderstorms. Some success has been reported in iissipating thunderstorm; but the so- viets need more data to make a final evaluation of the multi. No information is available on recent Soviet experiments on large weather systems, but it appears that such wort will be stepped up. Soviet scientists and engineers have discussed the possibility of climate modification for many years, particularly the prospects of melting the Arctic ice. The well-known proposal by P. M. Rorisov to dam the Bering Strait Is directed to this end but Soviet scientists have warned that melting the Arctic ice could have harmful effects on the climate in other areas of the world. 71w uncertainty of these effects Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 'l. 4 � � � � � � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 probably has kept field experimentation to a mini- mum. Current basic Soviet research on the develop- maul of realistic mathematical models of the atmos- phere could greatly assist in predicting effects over the entire Northern Hemisphere. The RESM.& probably the best computer available for testing these models, is not adequate for performing the otAnplex computations in olvad, although even the most advanced computers are not completely ade- quate for this job. The Soviets are actively engaged in research on the microphysics of clouds and precipitation in sup- port of weather modification. They are paRscularly active in laboratory studies involving cloud cham- bers. They also have been imaginative in applying radar to cloud research and precipitation studies. Soviet administrators of the weather modification program have stated that there is a need for inten- sifying these basic studies. DISCUSSION OVERALL WEATHER MODIFICATION PROO RAM The Soviets have maintained a large weather modification program for about 20 years. In terms of numbers of personnel h3volved1 it probably is the largest in the world. It appears that the Soviets maintain a much larger field experimental program than the United States but that their related basic research effort is smaller.' Consequently, the Soviets generally have been quicker to test weather :no& Smtion techaiques in the field than has the united States. The Soviets appear to have a well-organized pro- gram.' High-level direction of the program is in- dicated by their apparent ability to channel efforts Into particular sub&Ids. Thus very intense work is oanied out until a technique Is perfected to the point that it can be used operationally or semlopere- dangly. At that time, scientific resources ars di- verted to another subfield. As an example, a large Soviet effort in dissipating supercooled fop and clouds was a � �arent in the middle and late 1960s. When this ." qua was developed to the point that it could be used operationally, the oonoeuese- tion of effort was shifted to hail suppmion, where It has been linos the early 19e0t. The decision as to which subileld to concentrate the effort must be mad* at high levels and probably is based 311 a combination of factors, such as which areas appear to be the most promising and which have the most military and economic potential. It is evident from the published literature that the overall weather modification program In the USSR underwent a considerable expansion in 1900- 1964, with a steady but slower growth rate since then.' However, this expansion may have been more apparent than real breause a general declauifica- tiou of the program in the late 1950s may have re- suited in an increase in published articles. Never- theless, there is no question that the Soviet weather fralification efforts have been increasing and they probably will oontinue to do so. Further, high-level Soviet officials have indicated that the future pro- gram probably will have a better balance between theoretical research and field experimentation." flail suppression The Soviets have continued to expand their ac- tivities in hail suppression over the past 5 years. This effort, which began in 1956 as a rather small experimental effort in the Caucasus Mountains our Mt. Elbrus, has now expanded to include areas of the republics of Georgia, Moldavia, Tadzhildstan, Ukraine, Armenia and Uzbekistan. Recently a co. operative hail n.-pression project has also been ini- tiated with Bulimia." The long time period and the number of v�periments conducted probably have given the Soviets more experience in this area of weather modification than any other country. The Soviet government made the decision in 1967 to expand the hail suppression operations to include eventually all areas of the USSR that are subject to significant hail damage." This decision leaves little doubt that Soviet officials are convinced that the method effectively reduces the amount of damaging hail which fails, but there appears to be some ques- tion as to the exact amount that hail damage is re- duced. C. K. Sulalcvelldm, who leads the hag KT. OM. 3 ' � �� 1,, �N � � ' '!.6* .t 4.14101. �.,";:e."- � i."' 1,to � 11,. �ir ' � , JP ' :AO% YP1 � 4 �/�.t. Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 pression effort in the Caucasus and who Is one of the most enthusiastic proponents of the method claims a benefit-to-cost ntlo ot about 17 to 1. The official Hydrometeorological Service estimate of the benefit-to-cost ratio appears to be &Lout 5 to 1.6 The more conservative estimate probably is closer to the true value. Part of the discrepancy between theirs. figures probably is due to different methods of figuring the cost of the program. It is not entirely clear bow the cost of such item as guns, rockets, ammunition, and radars are figured into the Goa of the program SilICO some of this equipment appear, to be military surplus material." The benefits of the program are calculated on the basis of insurance claims 101' the protected areas compared with claims for adjacent unprotected areas.' The size of the hail suppression program in the USSR indicates that It has passed from a strictly experimental program into at least a semioperadonal program It is not likely that the Soviet government would decide to expand a strictly experimental pro- gram into all hail-affected areas of the country. Nevertheless, the fact that a control area is almost Invariably established alongside a protected area indicates that the Soviets do not consider the pro- gram to be entirely operational at present, and they ar� still interested in obtaining experimental data. The principle behind the Soviet bail suppression efforts is that certain portions of well-developed convective clouds often have large accumulations of moisture in a liquid supercooled state. The ice particles which form as a result of the natural fret-x- ins of droplets falling through these areas grow rapidly and are transformed into hailstones. The Soviet theory states that by injecting a large num- ber of artificei crystallisation nuclei into the cloud, the nuclei can convert the region of high, super- cooled water content into small ice crystal*, thereby eliminating the large supply of supercooled water which is necessary for the formation of lualstones.' According to the Soviet theory, the artificial nuclei must be injected into the portion of the cloud which has the high supercooled water content and they must be placed there before the hailstones can grow to a large size. Soviet observations and computations show that large hailstones can be formed in a matter of 5 to 10 mthutes after the hall forming process begins.' 4 The Soviets rely heavily on radar to determine where they want to seed the clouds." Their experi- ence has shown that the radar reflectivity undergoes a perceptible change in the area of the cloud where the had formation is beginning. Either rockets or 100-mm antiaircraft artillery On used to deliver the seeding agents to the cloud, and both delivs.y sys- tems are tied into radar control points. Based on the military precision with which they operate, the gun craws appear to be either military personnel or civilians who have had extensive training with the guns.' The shells normally are loaded with a lead Iodide reagent, and a timing device is used to ex- plode the shell at a preselected point in the tra- jectory. The rockets are equipped with two timing devices: one to set the time of burning of thc reagent and the other to set the time for parachute deployment.' Possible danger to the local population from antiaircraft shell fragment's or from rockets landing in a populated area does not seem to con- cern the Soviets greatly. They claim that the shells fragment completely and that it is rare to find a 14(.00 as large as 1 gram on the ground.' The danger from the rockets is minimised by the use of para- chutes, and the rocket sites are established in rela- tively unpopulated areas. Rocket firings must be coordinated with civil and military aircraft author- ities, who have veto power over rocket firings." There is a certain degree of rivalry between the groups using guns and those using rockets, but there is no evidence that the Soviet decision makers have any intention of adopting only one delivery method. The rockets used in the program have undergone continued improvement through the years and the Soviets presently are using a multiple rocket launcher capable of firing four rockets simulta- neously. These rockets are approximately 5 ft. long and have a range of about 3 lors. The new larger Alazani rocket is now in Its final test phase. It has a launcher capable of simultaneously launching several rockets in different dimodons... Each delivery system has certain advantages and disadvantages. The antiaircraft artillery can deliver a shell to a particular spot in the cloud,eith rela- tively good accuracy. When the sh-11 explodes, a large number of nuclei are then released in a rela- tively small volume. A large storm would require a large number of flrings to seed it completely. In one operation observed by Western scientists, about MO rounds were fired to seed one storm.' The rockets Jfr. NYP � .". 'et ,- I � 4. � *, �' � � "� �: .� � -4N Al " � � ���: � ; 4 .7E( . cp4. . ,i . � W j � . .� .11 � , � , � (1,..� � )4 it.71:4+,1 k. .,�$.44�� a � tc. -4: . a- � 1 � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 apparently also achieve good accuracy and they have the ability to deliver the nuclei over a con- siderable volume of the cloud. The number of nuclei delivered per unit volume is not as high 111 in the case of the shells, but the rockets are somewhat more versatile in that they can be set to eject the nuclei either in a horizontal trajectory through the cloud or vertically as the rocket descends through the cloud by parachute" The hail suppression expedition located near tor- meshta In Moldavia appears to be the most sci- entifically oriented group of its kind in the USSR. The Moldavian expedition is under the leadership of 1.!. Cayvoroaskiy of the Centre! Aerological Ob- servatory. Although all the hail suppression groups study the result their efforts have on crop damage by hall, only the Moldavian expedition apparently has made any study of the effects their operations have had on precipitation in the area of operations. Cayvoronskiy's statistics, based on 10 years of ols- servation, tend to show that his operations have had little effect on precipitation in the area." The overall Soviet hail suppression program is a large, impressive effort which seems to dominate the entire Soviet weather modification program.' The Soviets have developed effective delivery systems and have a well-coordinated program. The primary benefit of hail modification is, as the Soviets have stated, for the protection of crops. However, the ability to dissipate hail storms could also be used by the military to protect personnel and certain valuable equipment. The Soviet use of lead iodide as a seeding agent may be somewhat less esacient than silver iodide, but is not a serious limitation to the program. Precipitation augmentation Precipitation augmentation, a subfleld of weather modification popularly referred to as rain-making, has received a large percentage of the total weather modification budget In the United States. In the USSR, however, this subfield has received consid- erably less effort than that of hell suppression, and there is some indication that It is not receiving un- qualified support at the top admintstntive One reason may be the belief, expressed by some Soviet officials, that the increase b precipitation produced by cloud seeding has not been great enough to make it economically feasible on a large scale.' Another possible explanation is that the So- viets may decided to concentrate their re- sources on hail suppression because the economic benefits were more dear cut. Some Soviet scientific resources allotted to hall suppression could be di- verted to other areas of weather modification, such as precipitation augmentation, as the hail suppres- sion operations become less experimental and more operational. In any case, there is little duubt that the Soviets recognise that even a email increase in precipitation at the right time and place can have considerable economic benefits. Military benefits from precipitation augmentation are less clear cut but certain tactical operations could derive some marginal benefits from such a program. The largest Soviet weather modification effort to Increase precipitation is a joint effort between the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Research Institute at Kiev and the WM Geophysical Observatory at Leningrad." This project was established in 1958 and cloud seeding with dry ice has been carried out continuously since 1939.'' The Ukrainian ex- periments have been conducted using two IL-14 aircraft for dispensing dry ice Into the clouds. In setting up this operation, the Soviets estab- lished two areas of equal size (3,750 km") separated by a distance of 30 km. All the cloud seeding experi- ments have been conducted in the eastern area, and the western area has been used as a control area. Operating in this manner, the Soviets are able to avoid contaminating the control area with seeding nuclei because of the prevailing westerly winds in the area. The Soviets set up a dense network of rain guages in the two arms (one per every 10-12 km') to make line-scale measurements of natural precipi- tation in the control area and of that from cloud seeding in the operating area. The experimental area is also Instrumented with two radar Installa- tions to observe areas of precipitation and to track and control the aircraft doing the seeding." Te Soviets have seeded stratus and stratocumulus air man clouds as well as frontal-type clouds in the Ukrainian operations. 'They have reported about a 10 percent increase in predpitation amounts when operating on winter air mass clouds. However, the scientists involved do not consider this a very sig- nificant increase because the total water content of these clouds Is very mail in the first place.' They claim to have been more mccessful when operating AIM ' � '; I � I ki � � "' � m � :I � � � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 on frontal-type clouds, with some claiming as much as a 20 to �5 percent increase while others, only about 15 percent.' "U this magnitude of precipita- tion augmentation could be achieved for all frontal cloud situations, it could be quite significant. How- ever, the Soviets have determined that only about 50 percent of the winter frontal-type clouds are fa- vorable for seeding." Since 1980 the Ukrainien expedition has also systematically seeded summer cumulus clouds. From 1900 to 1988 the Soviets seeded when possible all clouds which exceed 1141 lon in depth and whose temperature at cloud top was lower than �5' C. These parameters had been established, through previous Soviet investigations, as being necessary for favorable seeding conditions. The amount of precipitation which fell over the operational area was then compared with the amount which fell over the control area to determine the effectiveneu of the experiments. The results showed some in- crease in the seeded area, !An the increase was not Large enough to rule out the possibility that it could have been a chance occurrence." Beams' of this uncertainty in the multi, the So- viets changed their approach in 1900 and began the random selection of the clouds to be seeded. The evaluation of these randomized experiments involves the comparison of the amoure of precipitation from the seeded clouds with the amount horn the un- seeded clouds. These experiments have not been under way long enough for them to make a definite conclusion about the effectiveness of the sxperl- meats; however, preliminary results have not been particularly encouraging." Perhaps the most sig- nificant aspect of these experiments is that this is the ant time the Soviets have been known to use this technique. One of the criticisms of the Soviet weather modification experiments in the past has been the lack of statistical controls far evaluation purposes. Randomization Is 4 technique commonly used by Western scientists to establish such con- trols, and recent Information indicates that the So- viets will be using it more in the future." Scientbta involved in the Ukrainian experiments have subjected their data to analysis to determine whether or not the cloud seeding operations re. suited in any decrease in precipitation downwind from the operating area." Several specialists hi the field have postulated that such a decrease might occur, but the researchers in the Ulcraine turned up no detectable decrease. However, they have reported that a secondary maximum in precipitation down- wind from the operating area seems to be indicated. This woondary maximum, if real, is quite small and probably will have little significance on the overall precipitation pattern producci by the cloud seeding operations. The only other known sizable Soviet effort to augment precipitation is a project in northern Ka- zakhstan under the control of the Kazakh Scientific and Experimental Hydrometeorological Institute." This effort apparently has been under way 111101) about 1983, but Intl, else is known about it. The fact that prectioally nothing has been published (oncoming this Lifort Is untlitlah it could indicate that certain aspects of the project are classified, or it might indicate that the operations there are being conducted with little scientific analysis of the re- sults of the experiments. A recent press report has mentioned another operation designed to augment precipitation in the Yakutia ASSR. According to the report, an experiment was conducted to produce rain in the area of a forest fire; however, It is not clear from the report whether this was part of an established weather modification program or was carried out on an ad hoc basis." Cloud and fog dissipation Much of the early effort by the Soviets in weather modification apparently was devoted to the dissipa- tion of supercooled fog and clouds, which has par- ticular application for military and civil air opera- tion& This wort proved the feasibility of using cloud seeding techniques. After the feasibility was estab- lished, the major remaining problem was to develop reliable and economical techniques for dispersing the seeding agents. As early as 1958 the Soviets claimed that they were using dry ice on at least a semi-operational basis to dissipate supercooled fogs over airports in the USSR. At present the Soviets op- erationally clear supercooled fogs at 10 to 12 airports using ground equipment that blows flakes of 00, to a height of 20 meters. These flakes are produced from tanks each containing 25 kg of liquid 00s; four tanks are used to seed at 8.5 kg per minute.In the early 19801 the Soviets reported experiments on clearing large areas (up to 90,000 km') of super- cooled clouds. Successful operstaions of this type could have considerable military potential for be- Inn � � � � � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 1" � � � � � � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 tical air, land, and sea operations, and ars of con- siderable scientific interest because the energy in. approaches that required to cause a meas- urable perturbation in atmospheric circulation. No recent reference has been found to any further op- erations involving large areas, although at a recent meeting. Ye- K. Fedorm, chief of the Main Ad- ministration of the Hydrometeorologioal Service (CUCMS), dated that more work should be done on large cloud systems! Work still continues in the USSR on supet000led cloud and fog dispersal, but the major eon of Soviet scientists in this rubfield has been diverted to the much more perplexing problem of dissipating warm clouds and fop., Warm clouds and fogs are much more prevalent than supercooled types, and they are much less susceptible to modification: The Soviet wenn cloud and fog effort is led by the Main Geophysical Observatory In Leningrad with the cooperation of the Central Aerological Observatory In Dolgoprudnaya, the Institute of Experimental Meteorology in Obninsk, and the Ukrainian sci. instill� Research Hydrometeorological Institute in Kiev.** Any successful techniques developed in warm cloud and fog dispersal would have consid- erable military, civil, and scientific significance. The Soviet program for mod4ing warm clouds and fogs generally has proceeded along lines similar to those of Western countries that are active in (hr kid. The meter Soviet effort has been devoted to determining the feasibility of using heat sources and of seeding with hygroscopic or surfactant ma- terials.* 81 The available information indicates that the Soviets have not yet settled on any one tech- nique but that they are still searching for a workable method" Heat sources have been us....1 least since World War rt when the British devel000d the fog in- vestigation dispersal operations (FIDO) system to dissipate warm lop over runways. The prin. dple behind this method is that the additicn of offyposcopic materials LAW the property at Increasing the condensation of maw vapor. aid such materials as N. sad Coal am commonly nat.! as hygroscopk preding apnat. Surfactant materials reduce the surface Wigan of the cd or fog droplets, which moan is a more tspld woke- cent rate of the droplets. Whoa the droplet, pow moist through this room, they fall out as nap oe mit and cloud or fog should dissipate provided the efficiency greet enough. heat will result in the evaporation of the fog. The heat may be applied from below, as with the FIDO system, or from above. The addition of beat from above is a commonly observed natural phenomenon when ground fog is dissipated after the sun rises In the morning. In principle, this process can be assisted and speeded up by adding a beat absorb- ing material, such as carbon black, to the top of (befog deck thus increasing the absorption of the solar radiation. The addition of beat to eveporate a warm fog is a proven technique; however, US studies to date have determined that It is only marginally cost affective. Nevertheless, at some lo- csoons where fog is very prevalent this method may prove to be worthwhile. The French have made the decision to install let aircraft engines underground alongside the runways at Orly Air. field to provide the necessary heat la dissipate warm fog& There is some evidence that the Soviets currently consider the heat source technique to be the most practical, at least for situations where there is a requirement for rspid fog di:sip:ion as might be molted for aircraft operations aayvoronskiy of ti Central Aerological Observatory cites these figu.ds from theoretical calculations: for a warm fog 50 m thick with a water content of 0.1 gm/ms, 110 cal/m' of beat are required to divers, the fog in 0.5 minute. To perform the same rate of clearing with hygroscopic' particles, hundreds of kilograms of secg material per second would be required Coyvoronskiy further points out that the beating method contributes little pollution to the atmosphere, is fast acting, and is not de- pendent on the varying microphysical character's. tics of fogs. Hs concludes from this that thermal methods of warm fog dispersal should be given preference over others." Although there has been some laboratory work reported by the Soviets on hygroscopic and sur- factant materials, there hu been surprisingly little of actua repo ta- lion. however, one Soviet Scientist has 'tat that Ms laboratory work In this field which for- merly was unclassified has now been classified by the Soviet niggle:y.1' This indicates that the pub- 7 �� ,., � � � ��� � � t�it�. , �� 1 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 000042134 OP' fished Soviet liters Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 0 not give a true picture tuation, and Sold esperhnentatton on the dissipation of wenn clouds and fogs vasY kWh' 111 under way In the USSR. The reason such MD has been classified by the Soviets is not entirely obvious. There is no quution that the development of a successful method to dis- sipate warm clouds and fog would have important military implications, but other types of weather modification, which they do not classify, also have such implications. Warm cloud and lag dissipation has the obvious potential for *Irma operations and many ground and sea battle /Nations. Other mesons for the classification could he that the So. Wets have discovered a technique which they bei hew to be superior to techniques under develop!. moot by other countries or that itr potential is greater than other subfields of weather modification. In contrast to the general lack of Information on Soviet field experiments on warm cloud and fog dissipation, one field project to disperse fog OM Kola Bay has been reported rather frudY. This project is under the direction of the Uhransmi idea. title Research Hydrometeorological Institute, and personnel from Kiev State University and the hi ur. mend Administration of the Hydrometeorologicel Service also are involved." These everiments were started in the winter of 1964-1965 to determine the feasibility of dispersing warm fogs over the bay by covering the water surface with a monomoleculer film of higher fatty alcohols. In theory, such a Alm should reduce the evaporation from the water our- face thereby cutting off the moisture supply which Is responsible for the formation. of the fog. Although the Soviets have claimed some success with this technique, no spectacular results aro apparent.' One interesting mule the Soviets have reported from these experiments is that when the winds are stronger than 7 misery (about 15 mph) the Alm is destroyed.' Nevertheless, the Soviets have been successful In dissipating warm fog using thew tech- niques when the proper conditions have existed However, they have found that very largo quantities of reagents are needed to clear large areas. Presently they are using kerosene as a solvent for the fatty alcohol reagent, and this presents d problem when large quantities are Involved. Consequently, the Soviets are searching for other solvents which could be used for spreading an effective film on the water.* One laboratory experiment has been Maned which has interesting possibilities if it proves to be successful. it was an attempt to coat the fog droplets rather than the sea surface with a monomolocular film of higher alcohols." If this technique were suc- cessful, it should reduce evaporation within the fog or cloud and thereby prolong rather than reduce the lifetime of the fog or cicrud. The capability to prolong cloud or fog lifetime could be used in many tactical military situations but there an ieee Ob- vious situations where such a technique would have an economle application. This experiment was reported at a 1966 conference in the Soviet Union and no further information has appeared. This could Indicate that the Soviets have found the technique to be infeasible under natural conditions u op- posed to the laboratory conditions under which it was first tested with some reported success. On the other hand, it could also Indicate that work has continued but has been classified because of military implications. Severe storm modification The Soviets have reported no experiments to modify large severe storms comparable with the US STORM FURY project, which is designed to study the effects of modification techniques on hurricanes. However, the Soviets have conducted numerous experiments on individual cumulus clouds and some on fully developed thunderstorms. 'Mese experiments in general haw been designed to stop the growth of the cumulus clouds before they reach the thunderstorm stage or. In the case of the experi- ments on cumulonimbus clouds, to reduce the effects after the thunderstorm stage has been reached. In one let of experiments, the Soviets have attempted to produce the opposite ttifecti that is, to induce the growth of email cumulus clouds Into mature cumu- lonimbus clouds. Such experiments, if suoceerful, would have application both for military and dvil operations. The ability to prevent Were thunder- storms would be useful for protecting vulnerable military equipment such as aircraft or missiles and for protecting exposed personnel. The ability to pro- duce thunderstorms could be used as an offensive weapon In tactical situations. 11111111111111 � � � � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 1 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134. I 14 I II " "114 11441411U A group of sclentiets under the leadership of the Central Aerological Observatory is conduct- ing an experimental field program in the C.eor- gian SSA to dissipate rapidly growing cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds. This project Is designed to destory the ascending currents within the cloud and to change them to descending currents. The downward motion 'tops the vertical growth of the cloud and, if it continues long enough, will result � srventually in the destruction at the cloud!' al In these experiments the Soviets have seeded the grow- ing cumulus clouds with intoluable particles of 3 to 30 Wixom. Different seeding agents have been � tested but clay and cement have been the most commonly used. In some of the later experiments a CuO powder also has been tested. The seeding agent is dispensed in fairly large quantities (up to 50 kg have been used) from an I1-28 jet aircraft. The material Is ejected into the tloud where upward motion Is the greatest; tests helm been conducted on clouds of up to 10 lun in vertical extent:" Ac cording to recent Information, the Soviets have con- ducted experiments of this type on 500 cumulus clouds and on 05 cumulonimbus clouds which had reached the thunderstorm stage." The Soviets claim that effects from the seeding were observable on 02 of the 05 experiments on cumulonimbus cloak and almost all of the cumulus clouds showed an effect." The first effect usually observed alter seeding was a noticeable darkening of the cloud followed by lamination and evaporation. Preeipitation often was � noted falling from the cloud following the seeding, but this usually was very light and in many cases evaporated before reaching the ground. In the majority of cases reported, complete dissipation of the cumulus cloud occurred in 20 to 30 minutes. although remnants of middle or high level clouds � often persisted." To minimize the possibilities that these effects could have occunwd naturally, the Soviets have conducted all the experiments between 1300 and 1600 hn local time when convection normally is at lb greatest They also have observed the behavior of untreated clouds in the vicinity of operations to determine whether any of these dls � sfpated naturaDy. Visual and Instrumented obierve- tions of the result, of these experiments have been carried out from an IL-14 aircraft end by ground. � based radars." Apparently DO attempt bas been made up to the present to randomize the expert- menb, and it is therefore difficult to judge the but � --el, ,� e� - ., 't --A ! t ... ,-.:�,,' ,k:- .'.. .., ;- s '2-�'',%:' ,1' 4.,�.. , a .o.q- efficacy of tire work. However, the results repcssed are rather impressive and inclicrite that the So ,on!ts have hero able to eissipote at least some cumulus and etomilonirninis clouds under proper oundit.olis. Another project, similar in p.inciple but sinallti In magnitude and using different techntque,, us bring carried out by personnel from the lastitioce of Experimental Meteorology. This project raiz is directed toward the dissipation of cumulus ch.imis by creating artificial downdrafts, but ains-aft lets are used instead of cloud seeding agents." jet ant- cleft are flown through the clouds at high pitch angles, thereby directing their let dcwrie rid through the cloud. Nine experiments of this type have ken reported, and in all asses some e4tex:.t was noted. According to the Soviet report, the cloris either completely dissipated, broke into piu:s, gw ceased their vertical growth. The operations mule carried out on cumulus clouds ranging from 5 I4 6 km in vertical extent." Although positive re-4.111s were reported from these experiments, the of flying the aircraft through the clouds probably will limit the usefuliteu of this teehniciae to a considerable degree. The seine expetinienters together with personnel (ruin the State Scientific Research Institute of Civil Aviation have tested the feasibility of using jet air. craft engine's on the ground to create artificial bp. drafts in an attempt to stimulate the growth Of cumulus clouds into cumulonimbus clouds. During dry weather in the summer, cumulus clouds often will form but will he prevented from develophig Into cumulonimbus clouds by a temperature In- version at some level in the free atmosphere. In theory, If an ascending current could be pmduce41 that could penetrate this Inversion, the cloud might continue to grow and eventually to produce rain An analysis of several years' data showed that 75 percent of the summer inversions over Moscow could as penetrated b this manner, and in 12ta an experimental apparatus was set up near Borispot Four jet engines were joined so that their exhatuit jets all fed into one vertically directed vent. Derenty experiments wer�carririd out to test the technique. In most cases the Soviets reported that small cu- mulus clouds were formed over the jets. In the case where natural clouds were already present. they generally became larger in size. In a few cases the clouds darkened et the base and occs� Atonally produced rain. According to Soviet reports, 41111111116 9 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 they plan to continue these experiments and increase the number of jet eneines used from four to tows These multi reported thus fu by the Soviets do not appear to be wry significant. The use of addi- tional engines might produce better mulls, but the fuel consumption Is likely to make this technique marginal at best with regard to cost affectiveoess. However, cost may not be a factor for a military system, and the Soviets might continue MD on this technique if further testing Indicates that ft may be ntilitartly useful. � Related num* Despite the relatively large math's modification research effort that has been carried out over a number of years, there are still several questions relating to the basic physics of clouds and precipita- tion that are still not completely undentood. One of the unresolved microphysical problems of cloud and precipltatice processes concerns the Initial stages of rain formation through coalescence of water droplets. A requirement tor relatively simple, reliable Sold butrumon igloo for measuring the con- ambitions of atmospheric Ice nuclei still has to be met. Further, much work needs to be done on measuring and reproducing In mathematical models the atmospheric motions In and around clouds." The Soviets have recognized the unsolved Fob. Isms in basic cloud and precipitation physics, and they have conducted an active research program for many years In these area& In general, however, it appears that the Soviets lag the United States in these theoretical aspects of their research! '111w Soviets have acknowledged that they are weaker In the basic research than in the apartmentsl work, and Ye. L Fedorov lrs stated that one of his ob. kattvai ft to strengthen that portion of the program to increase the understanding of the physke of what really happens.' u The Soviets have relied heavily on aloud cham- bers to collect basic data for their microplsydeal studies on clouds. The Institute of Experimental Meteorology at Obninsk has at Its disposal three large cloud chambers, two with a volume of 100 mt and one with a volume of 3,900 mi.1 11 The latter chamber Is on. of the largest in the world, and one of Its advantages Is that ft allows larger volumes of clouds to be studied. 'The 15�as height of this chamber also allows the Soviets to study the diets 10 of seeding nuclei on the water droplets as the nuclei fall down through the artificial aloud. A distinct disadvantage of the chamber is that the temperature can be regulated only between 111� and WC, and the pressure can be mutated only between 1.0 and 11 atm." Although them restrictions are not very serious for the study of low-level clouds, they are unreal for higher level clouds. This chamber Is highly Instrumented to collect microphysioal data from the artificial clouds contained in ft. One Impressive Instrument used on this chamber Is a photoelectric, sensor which measures the drop size distribution In the air that Is funneled past the counter. This Instrument can be set to measure particles In Increments of 4-micron steps, the small- est being I microns." The two smaller cloud chambers at the Institute of Experimental Meteorologic are much more versa- tile than the larger chamber. These cloud chambers are designed so that the temperature can be rep- fated between �50� and OM, and the pressure can be regulated from 0.05 to 10 atm." Thus these chunbon provide for a more nearly real atmosphere than the larger facility and for most research they may be more useful. The Soviets are building a 200 m' cloud chamber at the Institute of Geophysics under the Georgian Academy of Sciences! This chamber will have the capability of reaching tem- pastures as low as �40*C but its pressure capa- bility is not known. ?nowt plans are to instrumer� this facility with optical lasers and a 1-cm radar to measure the moisture content of the clouds which we produced. It appears that this will be an excel- lent research facility when completed, but it is somewhat questionable whether the staff at the Institute will be capable of utilizing it to its fullest astent.0 The Soviets have abo been actively Investigating the miceophrical propertise of clouds using Wm- mooted &karat and radar. These Inns of imitt1.1* lions are necessary to supplement the cloud chamber studies bemuse, no matter haw sophisticated a cloud chamber Is, It Is impossible to duplicate all the recesses and interactions found in the real at- mosphcra Instrumented airomft, which traditionally have berm widely used for collecting mlarophysical data, are still used, but modern radars are now matins ft possible to collect much of this data Indirectly. Aircraft messurernena suffer from several � � 1 � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 limitations amens which are the Multi's in lying through convecrtu-type amide and problems in developing inetrumenn that will make accurate measurements of the oweersay parameters. Soviet developeent of radars for these purpose, IlezheninF has kept isoe with welt= deV010$4111111b. They have dons a great deal of work with dual frequency radars: 3- and 10-cos radars are used extensively in the hail suppression propose to die- crtminate between bail and nonhall clouds. Inform- tion from the two radars is fed into one radar cow sole, which then directly presents the difference between the refactivity of the cloud in the two wavelengths on both the plan position iediostor and the A-scops! The Soviets claim that this differeodes technique is very accurate in discrimi- nating between those clouds which produce hail and thou which do not. They also use the dual fre- quency technique to determine the intensity of pre- dpitation. In this cue they use wavelengths of OAS and 3.1 cm. By maturing the differences in reilm tivity and absorption in these two wavelengths, the Soviets claim that they are able to overcome the problems of variable drop rises in the cloud, which rusks such measurements on single frequency radars di/Scull." The Soviet capabilities for processing the dual frequency radar information in real time are impressive, and it appears that this technique should be useful for studies of clouds and procipi- tatim." The Soviets also use radar methods for othw mierophysioal measurements of clouds, and it appears that their use of radar and radar process- ing equipment for these studies will be expanded." The Soviets also are actively engaged in seeding. nuclei research. At the prompt time they seem to favor the use of Ind bade, probably bemuse It is readily available to them!" The United States favor; the use of raver iodide over lead iodide be- cause US techniques for crystalization have not worked well with lead iodide. However, appears to work satisfactorily with Soviet pyrotechnic methods! The Soviets have expressed some conown about the toxic effects of lead iodide and they have tatted many other substances in the laboratory and some In the field They seem to favor copper made at the present time to mist* lead Iodide as the primary seeding nuclei. They claim to have deoal. aped a powdered form of copper sulfide that mu produce about IV nuclei per grant, which is vary good. They have also indicated that they have enough confidence in copper rade as a seeding nuclei to bests using it in their hail suppression f=' This could be quite apifloant if nooses- use copper Wilde is a much cheep, prod- uot than sayer Iodide. Organic materials, hygro- scopic nuclei, and various insoluble materials are also being ktuatipted intensively, particularly for use on nonrupercooled clouds and fop C:LIMATI MODIFICATION The Soviets have shown an interest In climate modrticetion for many years. This interest probably Is partly due to the unfavorable climate which pre - veils over mod of the USSR. In addirton a moms- NI climate modillostion technique could have con- adorable apnoea�e for both tactical and strategic military operations. Many schemes have been pro- posed in the Soviet Union for melting the Arctic icie and thus moderating the average temperatures of the northern areas of the country. One of the oldest and best known proposals is that of P. M. Borisov, who has advocated damming the Daring Strait. Borisov's concept is to pump water from the Arctic Ocean through a dam into the Facile Ocala In turn, would draw the warmer water from the Atlantic Often through the Arctic Ocean and even- bully melt the ice." Borisov claims that the ke in the Arctic Oman would be completely melted in three years, and that owe molted, it would not return. Borisov, an engineer, claims that this project Is technically feasible, and scientiSc studies at the Main Geophysical Observatory tend to support his claim that the icar would not re-form coos it was melted. However, M. I. Budyko, director of the Main Geophysics! Observatory, has pointed out that his studies show that melting the Arctic ice could have adverse effects on the climate of the temparatiie raw of the USSR." Despite this warn- ing, Borisov pwiodkally IIIVivell his proposal for damming the Bering Strait. Although the Soviets have apparently approached the proposal for large-scale melting of the ice In the Arctic with caution, they have developed and tool other techniques for molting los on a smeller scale. One technique which they have used for mg* pan is to Mier' the surface of tbs fos en Increase the amount of' solar maw absorbed by the surface. The Soviets pm* have concluded that this technique is feasible, although some tech- 11111110111 11 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 \now akal difficulties hoe bees encountered with the use of carbon black as the blackening agent. During recent years the Soviets efferently have been using coal dust rather than larboa black as the Maiming agent, and this seems to have eliminated some of the early problemes hrsoonel from the Antio and Antarctic Scientific lteesamb Withal developed this technique. They claim that, using esed putsch. $.4 millimeters in sire, they can melt a volume of icedf about 3 lane in area and meters thick. Ap proximately SOO tons of coal duet applied at be. quern intervals are required to melt thh %ohms al s' It can be seen bow them figurer that a very large logs* effort vrould be required to melt the lugs areas of ice In the Arctic Ocean using this technique, but Ye. Z. Wens has stated that it could be done." � 12 _31 The lack of quantitative data as what dab lergeecole climate modification in the Arctic would have on other arm al the owing probably has been the governing factor against proceeding with experiments of this type. Quantitative data of this type probabit, will Dot be available until satisfactory mathematical models of the atmospheric circulation can be developed. A group at the Computing Cada of the Siberia' Division of the Academy of Soicooss Is very active in the development of such models. However, the but computer available to this group tbe BUM 11, which b Dot adequate fat testing the very sophisticated models required in the geld of climate modilication. Until new and improved WM puler, become available and realistic atmospheric model" are developed, largnecole climate modifian don experimenn probably will not be ilekl totted by the Wax � 4111111101111 � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 � � � � � .pqm.� Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 UNCLASSIFIED REFERENCES 4. liulihnfliashvili, A. �Wu Apia* 1101 CoMisuse ZIPVII Yawata, IS Mar 811. S. Su!Arad" C. L "Hag Damp 001364� MOM.. 8010VS 041601.01.� SO 84 jf, lisork Nasty. Cidientssesiedat, Leningrad, 1907, p U7441 S. Mit 47498, SO Feb IS, Nausea% V. Ts. "Artificial Itioditionci Clmids and Plop," Trudy Oman GAO* aSsatos Ofissrasforil, no Ill, 198T, p U1-11113. 11 Notelysako, Ts. Ye., Lalsov, 3. N., and Movies, I. P. "Raub" of Seeding Clouds with Solid COI Alined it the Stimulation of Precipitate," owe the Ukrains,"Ith Al Dow firma en Cloud Physics and Weather Modifies*" Tbilith 11.111 MaY N. It nu. Dedp Report, Soviet Mk% � 3, no ITO, $ &PP 33. IT. Wham V. N. 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Measorologipa I Cidre. 101ive� no 1, 1988, p WV. U. JP311 44901, 3 Ape IS, Soria% P. N. "Cu Arodo Ornate bs Controlled," Pinata, so 18, 199T. ff. Wylie, M. 1. �Problems Involved ha Melting the Ands las," Chelows& I INUolvs, Leningrad, 1981, p113.134. 19. Rudy''', N. I. Proceedings of iii. AIRIalos Soils* Ilaterolosiosl Ces/rtenah � lo G4nmeasaisdal, Laalavild, 1981. 30. Mason, $. J. "Sanas Outstanding Problimis in Cool Phrgico�tb. 1ntoractioe if hilavphyecal and Dynamical Procisms," Quark* lowest of As Anal Notaweleglad 10010S� V IS, no 401, Jul le, p 4434113. 311. Sams*, N. V. end Volkeritaldr� 0. A. "Minna- batochambera for liasnarcii in Atmospheric PhYsias," Tin* !naiad Predawn/ 0�4044 as?, 1987, p 1340. 33. JP311 WOO, IS Sep 19, p 197.114, gestate,. V. V. and awakes, A. A. Isorwing th� Amnia of Raw hiessarimwne of Pracipitadea," lisOsoadasks Gisholopp, at?, /el 111. 11. 13 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 � � �� � Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00042134