NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 22 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005065488
• Release Decision: IPPUB U
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00446
• Publication Date: January 22, 1982

Director of
Central
Intelligence
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
22 January 1982
APPROVED FOR
RELEASE^ DATE:
21 -Jun-201 0
D 82-018JX
22 January 1982
COPY 249
 V
ARGENTINA-CHILE: Treaty Repudiation
Argentina's denunciation yesterday of its settlement treaty
ith Chil
w
e was a bold effort to force Vatican mediation of the
Beagle Channel dispute toward a political compromise.
Argentina put the best diplomatic face on its de-
nunciation by coupling it with its pledge to negotiate a
new treaty with Chile, its reaffirmation of faith in the
Vatican mediation, and its call for a suspension of
foreign arms purchases by the two countries.
Buenos Aires' announcement is the latest step in the
drawn out talks that followed Vatican intervention in 1979
in the dispute. Ever since the Pope announced his 1980
proposals--which heavily favor Chilean claims in the im-
portant offshore region--Argentina has been caught in a
conundrum. It wants to avoid rejecting outright the
Vatican position and yet--because of hardline military
sentiment--judges itself unable to accent the proposals
Comment: Argentina's eventual denunciation of the
treaty was anticipated, but its timing puts unexpected
pressure on Vatican mediators, as Chile has been pressing
for final action. Whatever Chile's immediate reaction
to yesterday's announcement--and implicit warning--it is
likely Santiago ultimately will have to countenance
some political compromise of its strong legal case.
Otherwise, it will face protracted controversy--and
possible military conflict--with its dominant neighbor.
Argentina's call for a freeze on arms purchases is
especially self-serving. Chilean military acquisitions
since 1978 have narrowed Argentina's military advantage,
and a halt would enable Buenos Aires' superior domestic
weapons production capability to open a wider gap again.
22 January 1982
 ,q. Poland: Pastoral Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
4
5?
'Italy: Terrorist Attacks on US Targets . . . . . . . . . 6
$ Namibia: Negotiations on Independence . . . . . . . . . .
9
10
Jip Pakistan: Plan To End Army RuZe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
11 NATO: Status of Spanish Membership . . . . . . . . . . . 12
13
13
22 January 1982
 Tit
Poland's bishops on Sunday will read a statement calling
3 for an end to martial Zaw. Local authorities in Poznan are showing
neater concern about securit .
A letter from Poland's bishops to be read in churches
on Sunday calls on the regime to rescind its repressive
(! martial law measures to avoid inciting violence or "even
7 civil war." The message emphatically repeats the Church's
/.call for the release of detainees, an end to the regime's
"verification" campaign, and the restoration of indepen-
dent trade unions and youth groups.
Comment: The pastoral letter, which apparently re-
sulted from Archbishop Glemp's meeting Tuesday with
senior bishops, gives broader dissemination to Glemp's
fears that the current impasse in
Poland could cause serious social turmoil. The Church
leaders probably hope to impress upon Premier Jaruzeiski
the urgency of announcing significant concessions in his
policy address now scheduled for Monday. The bishops
may have hit the point even harder in their personal
letter to Jaruzeiski.
The US Consulate in Poznan reports signs of increasing
concern by the local authorities and speculates there may
j be a significant shift under way in the public mood. The
security forces are making more frequent checks of pedes-
trians' documents, are continuously manning roadblocks
jj around the city, and are watching more intently the local
universities, which remain largely closed. The governor,
who had been away for a week, seemed uninformed of security
arrangements and claimed local interior ministry officials
established such controls on their own.
Comment: The governor's apparent ignorance of the
security situation lends credence to other evidence that
security authorities are playing the key role in running
the country. If the mood in Poznan, is turnina sour, it
would be a significant development.
22 January 1982
 Poznan has been one of the quieter areas in Poland
since the imposition of martial law, even though it houses
several large universities and important industrial
enterprises. The regime at one point felt so confident
that Poznan was under control it allowed Western journal-
ists to visit the city as part of their first guided tour
outside of Warsaw.
The EC Commission has decided to withdraw plans to
provide the martial law regime with an additional $260
million in subsidized food sales. Instead, the Commission
will increase aid to nongovernmental organizations which
it believes can better channel humanitarian aid directly
to the civilian population.
Comment: The Commission's decision probably re-
flects an assessment by the member states that continued
concessionary food sales would undermine the recent NATO
decision on food aid. Furthermore, EC countries may wish
to be seen as having taken responsible action before the
North Atlantic Council meeting tomorrow in order to de-
flect possible criticism. The decision also betrays
concern that the regime is manipulatina the tion
of subsidized food for its own ends.
2 l
22 January 1982
 Soviet Union
Baltic Military District
Carpath
Military
District
 5
22 January 1982
 ITALY: Terrorist Attacks on US Targets
The US Consulate in Milan and three US commercial enterprises
in Rome have been targets of violent attacks during the past week.
An organization calling itself the "Avant Garde
Communist Nuclei" has claimed responsibility for an un-
detonated bomb found at the Consulate. A self-styled
"Communist Group for Proletarian Internationalism" says
that it set off bombs that damaged the office in Rome
of the Italian Chamber of Commerce for the US and a Ford
Motor Company showroom and started fires at another Ford
facility and at an office of the Hoover Appliance company.
Neither group has surfaced before.
Comment: The choice of targets, the timing of the
attacks, the similarity of the names of the two groups,
/;and the language in recent Red Brigades' statements all
suggest that the kidnaping of General Dozier may have
been the catalyst for these actions. Groups previously
known by other names could be responding to the Brigades'
call for unity among Italian terrorists and for violence
against US officials and concerns.
The attacks, on the other hand, could have been
carried out by individuals or groups hoping merely to
capitalize on the publicity created by the Dozier inci-
dent. In either case, additional attacks by such groups
are possible in the weeks ahead.
6
22 January 1982
 22 January 1982
 NAMIBIA: Negotiations on Independence
The Frontline States and the South-West Africa People's Orga-
nization probably will reach a hard-won agreement at a meeting in
Lusaka tomorrow on the constitutional principles for an independent
Namibia proposed by the Western Contact Group, but prospects for
subsequent steps in the peace process are uncertain.
The major point of dispute among the African states
is SWAPO's strong dissatisfaction with the Contact Group's
proposal that half the constitutional assembly be filled
by proportional representation and the other half by con-
tests in single-representative constituencies. SWAPO
believes this proposal is designed to limit its role in
the assembly. Most of the Frontline States have indicated
that they are prepared to accept the principles with
little or no change.
Comment: The next phase of the negotiations will
focus on the methods to be used in the internationally
supervised truce and election and is likely to be more
difficult. Pretoria's recent public criticism of remarks
made by UN Secretary General Perez de Cuellar underscores
its distrust of the UN involvement in the settlement and
indicates that South Africa will be less flexible in the
negotiations.
Negotiation also will be hampered by divisions among
Frontline members. Some believe that Tanzanian President
Nyerere is pushing acceptance of the Contact Group's
proposals merely to increase his own international pres-
tige.
Zambia's cooperation may be affected by its neigh-
bors' refusal to sign a mutual trade agreement that
Lusaka promoted last month. Angola, probably with Mozam-
bique's backing, continues to lobby to include Libya,
Algeria, and Ethiopia in future Frontline meetings, a
move opposed by Tanzania and Botswana.
9
22 January 1982
 10
22 January 1982
 PAKISTAN: Plan To End Army Rule
President Zia apparently is considering sweeping changes that
would end overt military rule and enable him to serve as a civilian
leader, possibly through elections.
Comment: Although Zia has been under increased
pressure from within the Army to end martial law and hold
elections, he will move cautiously. If the Federal
Advisory Council established earlier this month appears
to be succeeding, the President could call for a referen-
dum to legitimize the new structure or work out a plan in
the Council for general elections that would deny partici-
pation to political parties. If Zia feels threatened, how-
ever, he could use the Council to put off elections and
give himself another extension as Army chief.
The President and the generals evidently believe
that they run less of a risk of losing control from a
phased loosening of Army rule than from a continuation
of the present order. Zia would face an element of
uncertainty, however, since he would give up the most
powerful post in the country if he resigned from the
Army
22 January 1982
 NATO: Status of Spanish Membership
West Germany is likely to suspend its normal ratification
procedures in order to speed Spain's accession to NATO, but delays
by the Netherlands and Greece may stall the process.
The West German Foreign Office now believes that
final action on the application will be taken in April,
well before the NATO ministerial meeting in May. This
news, however, had little initial effect in the Nether-
lands, where the Socialists are using procedural tactics
to demonstrate their concerns about Spain's membership.
Foreign minister van der Stoel predicts that it could take
up to a year for the parliament to complete ratification.
The situation in Greece also is troublesome. The
government probably will respond only to sustained
Allied pressure to act on the application. Spain's
backers, however, do not want to approach Athens until
they can present a carefully timed united front
Although most of the Allies have now indicated their
ability to approve membership by May, Spain would prefer
postponement of the NATO meeting if all members have not
ratified accession. The minority government in Madrid
has committed its prestige to joining NATO.
Comment: If the ratification process drags on and
becomes politicized in other capitals, domestic opposi-
tion in Spain to NATO membership could g ow and perhaps
lead Madrid to withdraw its application. 7
22 January 1982
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