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September 9, 2010
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January 22, 1982
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Director of Central Intelligence (b)(1) (b)(3) National Intelligence Daily Friday 22 January 1982 APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE: 21 -Jun-201 0 D 82-018JX 22 January 1982 COPY 249 V ARGENTINA-CHILE: Treaty Repudiation Argentina's denunciation yesterday of its settlement treaty ith Chil w e was a bold effort to force Vatican mediation of the Beagle Channel dispute toward a political compromise. Argentina put the best diplomatic face on its de- nunciation by coupling it with its pledge to negotiate a new treaty with Chile, its reaffirmation of faith in the Vatican mediation, and its call for a suspension of foreign arms purchases by the two countries. Buenos Aires' announcement is the latest step in the drawn out talks that followed Vatican intervention in 1979 in the dispute. Ever since the Pope announced his 1980 proposals--which heavily favor Chilean claims in the im- portant offshore region--Argentina has been caught in a conundrum. It wants to avoid rejecting outright the Vatican position and yet--because of hardline military sentiment--judges itself unable to accent the proposals Comment: Argentina's eventual denunciation of the treaty was anticipated, but its timing puts unexpected pressure on Vatican mediators, as Chile has been pressing for final action. Whatever Chile's immediate reaction to yesterday's announcement--and implicit warning--it is likely Santiago ultimately will have to countenance some political compromise of its strong legal case. Otherwise, it will face protracted controversy--and possible military conflict--with its dominant neighbor. Argentina's call for a freeze on arms purchases is especially self-serving. Chilean military acquisitions since 1978 have narrowed Argentina's military advantage, and a halt would enable Buenos Aires' superior domestic weapons production capability to open a wider gap again. 22 January 1982 ,q. Poland: Pastoral Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 5? 'Italy: Terrorist Attacks on US Targets . . . . . . . . . 6 $ Namibia: Negotiations on Independence . . . . . . . . . . 9 10 Jip Pakistan: Plan To End Army RuZe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 11 NATO: Status of Spanish Membership . . . . . . . . . . . 12 13 13 22 January 1982 Tit Poland's bishops on Sunday will read a statement calling 3 for an end to martial Zaw. Local authorities in Poznan are showing neater concern about securit . A letter from Poland's bishops to be read in churches on Sunday calls on the regime to rescind its repressive (! martial law measures to avoid inciting violence or "even 7 civil war." The message emphatically repeats the Church's /.call for the release of detainees, an end to the regime's "verification" campaign, and the restoration of indepen- dent trade unions and youth groups. Comment: The pastoral letter, which apparently re- sulted from Archbishop Glemp's meeting Tuesday with senior bishops, gives broader dissemination to Glemp's fears that the current impasse in Poland could cause serious social turmoil. The Church leaders probably hope to impress upon Premier Jaruzeiski the urgency of announcing significant concessions in his policy address now scheduled for Monday. The bishops may have hit the point even harder in their personal letter to Jaruzeiski. The US Consulate in Poznan reports signs of increasing concern by the local authorities and speculates there may j be a significant shift under way in the public mood. The security forces are making more frequent checks of pedes- trians' documents, are continuously manning roadblocks jj around the city, and are watching more intently the local universities, which remain largely closed. The governor, who had been away for a week, seemed uninformed of security arrangements and claimed local interior ministry officials established such controls on their own. Comment: The governor's apparent ignorance of the security situation lends credence to other evidence that security authorities are playing the key role in running the country. If the mood in Poznan, is turnina sour, it would be a significant development. 22 January 1982 Poznan has been one of the quieter areas in Poland since the imposition of martial law, even though it houses several large universities and important industrial enterprises. The regime at one point felt so confident that Poznan was under control it allowed Western journal- ists to visit the city as part of their first guided tour outside of Warsaw. The EC Commission has decided to withdraw plans to provide the martial law regime with an additional $260 million in subsidized food sales. Instead, the Commission will increase aid to nongovernmental organizations which it believes can better channel humanitarian aid directly to the civilian population. Comment: The Commission's decision probably re- flects an assessment by the member states that continued concessionary food sales would undermine the recent NATO decision on food aid. Furthermore, EC countries may wish to be seen as having taken responsible action before the North Atlantic Council meeting tomorrow in order to de- flect possible criticism. The decision also betrays concern that the regime is manipulatina the tion of subsidized food for its own ends. 2 l 22 January 1982 Soviet Union Baltic Military District Carpath Military District 5 22 January 1982 ITALY: Terrorist Attacks on US Targets The US Consulate in Milan and three US commercial enterprises in Rome have been targets of violent attacks during the past week. An organization calling itself the "Avant Garde Communist Nuclei" has claimed responsibility for an un- detonated bomb found at the Consulate. A self-styled "Communist Group for Proletarian Internationalism" says that it set off bombs that damaged the office in Rome of the Italian Chamber of Commerce for the US and a Ford Motor Company showroom and started fires at another Ford facility and at an office of the Hoover Appliance company. Neither group has surfaced before. Comment: The choice of targets, the timing of the attacks, the similarity of the names of the two groups, /;and the language in recent Red Brigades' statements all suggest that the kidnaping of General Dozier may have been the catalyst for these actions. Groups previously known by other names could be responding to the Brigades' call for unity among Italian terrorists and for violence against US officials and concerns. The attacks, on the other hand, could have been carried out by individuals or groups hoping merely to capitalize on the publicity created by the Dozier inci- dent. In either case, additional attacks by such groups are possible in the weeks ahead. 6 22 January 1982 22 January 1982 NAMIBIA: Negotiations on Independence The Frontline States and the South-West Africa People's Orga- nization probably will reach a hard-won agreement at a meeting in Lusaka tomorrow on the constitutional principles for an independent Namibia proposed by the Western Contact Group, but prospects for subsequent steps in the peace process are uncertain. The major point of dispute among the African states is SWAPO's strong dissatisfaction with the Contact Group's proposal that half the constitutional assembly be filled by proportional representation and the other half by con- tests in single-representative constituencies. SWAPO believes this proposal is designed to limit its role in the assembly. Most of the Frontline States have indicated that they are prepared to accept the principles with little or no change. Comment: The next phase of the negotiations will focus on the methods to be used in the internationally supervised truce and election and is likely to be more difficult. Pretoria's recent public criticism of remarks made by UN Secretary General Perez de Cuellar underscores its distrust of the UN involvement in the settlement and indicates that South Africa will be less flexible in the negotiations. Negotiation also will be hampered by divisions among Frontline members. Some believe that Tanzanian President Nyerere is pushing acceptance of the Contact Group's proposals merely to increase his own international pres- tige. Zambia's cooperation may be affected by its neigh- bors' refusal to sign a mutual trade agreement that Lusaka promoted last month. Angola, probably with Mozam- bique's backing, continues to lobby to include Libya, Algeria, and Ethiopia in future Frontline meetings, a move opposed by Tanzania and Botswana. 9 22 January 1982 10 22 January 1982 PAKISTAN: Plan To End Army Rule President Zia apparently is considering sweeping changes that would end overt military rule and enable him to serve as a civilian leader, possibly through elections. Comment: Although Zia has been under increased pressure from within the Army to end martial law and hold elections, he will move cautiously. If the Federal Advisory Council established earlier this month appears to be succeeding, the President could call for a referen- dum to legitimize the new structure or work out a plan in the Council for general elections that would deny partici- pation to political parties. If Zia feels threatened, how- ever, he could use the Council to put off elections and give himself another extension as Army chief. The President and the generals evidently believe that they run less of a risk of losing control from a phased loosening of Army rule than from a continuation of the present order. Zia would face an element of uncertainty, however, since he would give up the most powerful post in the country if he resigned from the Army 22 January 1982 NATO: Status of Spanish Membership West Germany is likely to suspend its normal ratification procedures in order to speed Spain's accession to NATO, but delays by the Netherlands and Greece may stall the process. The West German Foreign Office now believes that final action on the application will be taken in April, well before the NATO ministerial meeting in May. This news, however, had little initial effect in the Nether- lands, where the Socialists are using procedural tactics to demonstrate their concerns about Spain's membership. Foreign minister van der Stoel predicts that it could take up to a year for the parliament to complete ratification. The situation in Greece also is troublesome. The government probably will respond only to sustained Allied pressure to act on the application. Spain's backers, however, do not want to approach Athens until they can present a carefully timed united front Although most of the Allies have now indicated their ability to approve membership by May, Spain would prefer postponement of the NATO meeting if all members have not ratified accession. The minority government in Madrid has committed its prestige to joining NATO. Comment: If the ratification process drags on and becomes politicized in other capitals, domestic opposi- tion in Spain to NATO membership could g ow and perhaps lead Madrid to withdraw its application. 7 22 January 1982 22 January 1982 Top Seeret