NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 8 APRIL 1980

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005148481
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 8, 1980

tentrai
Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASED
DATE: 01-20-2010
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
8 April 1980
Top Secret
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
CO NID 80-08 U~
8 April 1980
Copy 3 8 8
 Situation Report
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Briefs and Comments
USSR - East Germany: Military Withdrawals . . . . . . . . 4
Egypt - Arab States: Financial Agreement . . . . . . . . 8
USSR-Vietnam: Delivery of Fighter-Bombers . . . . . . . . 8
8 April 1980
 Qasr-e
Shirin
Nak-e
,k Shah
raq
Iraq-Saudi Arabia
Neutral Zone
 After several violent incidents, Iran appears on the verge of
a complete diplomatic break with Iraq.
Tehran announced yesterday that it was recalling
all its diplomats from Baghdad. Iraq had earlier ordered
most of its representatives to leave Tehran
The latest decline in relations follows the at-
tempted assassination of Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister
Tariq Aziz on 1 April and a second terrorist incident
in Baghdad on Saturday at the funeral for those killed
during the attack on Aziz. Baghdad has moved rapidly to
retaliate.
Since the incidents, Iranian oil installations at
Naft-e Shah and Abadan near the border with Iraq have
The Iranians also have blamed Iraq for the weekend
attack on Iranian communications facilities near Qasr-e
Shirin,
-40P Se-LCt
1
p r i
 origin.
Intense Iraqi media attacks on Iran have stressed
the theme of Persian hatred of Arabs, especially Iraqis.
The Baathist leadership probably hopes that Arab na-
tionalism will have greater appeal to Iraq's majority
Shia Muslim population than the Iranian clergy's call
to topple the Baghdad government in the name of Islam.
In order to reduce the possibilities for domestic unrest,
Baghdad this weekend began expelling Shias of Iranian
reduced inflow from Naft-e Shah.
The oil disruptions are not likely to have a sub-
stantial effect on the overall domestic supply of refined
oil products, although production has declined. Produc-
tion at Abadan reportedly has fallen to 395,000 barrels
per day from its normal production level near 600,000
barrels per day, and production at the Kermanshah
refinery apparently has fallen from 19,000 barrels per
day to 15,000 barrels per day--probably as a result of
Hostages
Bani-Sadr's preoccupation with the hostage issue
in the last two weeks has almost certainly damaged his
supporters' hopes of doing well in the second round of
elections for the National Assembly later this month.
The final results of the first round indicate that only
100 of the 270 seats in the Assembly have been filled
and runoffs will be necessary in the remainder. In many
much until the National Assembly is convened.
Bani-Sadr as been deeply dispirited by the Ayatollah's
decision, and that he refused to comment publicly on
the hostages after meeting with Khomeini. Although we
believe Bani-Sadr will continue to look for ways to
resolve the crisis, there is little prospect he can do
control.
day to authorize the hostages' transfer to cnvernmPnt
President Bani-Sadr's political position has been
further weakened by Ayatollah Khomeini's refusal yester-
8 April 1980
 of the campaigns still to be decided, the hardline
Islamic Republic Party will be the favorite; it won
about half of the seats decided in the first round.
considering any military action.
Reaction to US Sanctions
Tehran radio has announced that the Revolutionary
Council convened in "extraordinary" session early today
to decide on steps to counter the new US actions. Tehran
radio reported on the new US moves against Iran without
comment, but noted US press reports that the US is not
Japan has formally expressed its sympathy for the
US moves. A Japanese television network today, however,
quoted a Foreign Ministry source as saying that Japan's
dependence on Iran for oil is such that it will first
want to review Western reactions before deciding whether
punish Iran for holding the hostages.
TASS has called the US moves punitive measures to
to side with the US on the sanctions issue.
8 April 1980
 sow`Qy 17cl; a [ ?L??? D?UM(Ons on Caq~ O many
c - Guards Tank Division
,J Guards Motorized Rifle Division
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Czechosiova is
 Top Beeret
USSR - EAST GERMANY: Military Withdrawals
The USSR has begun to withdraw additional elements of a tank
division from Wittenberg, East Germany, in partial fulfillment of
President Brezhnev's pledge to withdraw 20,000 Soviet troops and
1,000 tanks by October.
for next week.
A regiment of about 95 tanks and an engineer bat-
talion--totaling 1,500 men--were withdrawn from this
division in December. A public ceremony was held yester-
day to mark the departure of additional troops from Wit-
tenberg, and more ceremonies reportedly are scheduled
is contrary to Brezhnev's initial characterization of
The USSR hopes that the additional withdrawals will
be interpreted by the West--and particularly by West
Germany--as proof of its commitment to detente and arms
control in Europe. Recent public Soviet statements
have set forth the position, however, that the troops
and tanks being withdrawn should be counted toward any
Soviet reductions agreed to in the Vienna talks on mutual
and balanced force reductions in Central Europe. This
the step as a unilateral one.
8 April 1980
 An authoritative commentary in yesterday's Pravda declared
that the USSR wants to "use all possibilities and practical
channels" to restore normal relations with China.
of issues in interstate relations."
The article--under the pseudonym "I. Aleksandrov,"
indicating high-level endorsement--specifically proposed
reviving the stalled Sino-Soviet border negotiations,
last held in 1978. The text alluded vaguely to using
such a forum "for the constructive solution of a number
the USSR is not contemplating unilateral concessions.
The article avoided contentious issues such as con-
clusion of a joint document on principles of relations
raised in the political talks held last year. Neverthe-
less it strongly restated Moscow's stand that the burden
of improving relations rests on Beijing, indicating that
intervention in Afghanistan.
The timing of the article is linked to the expira-
tion this Friday of the Sino-Soviet treaty of 1950, which
China repudiated last year. The Soviets may hope that
an expression of symbolic restraint will help keep rela-
tions on an even keel despite tension created by Moscow's
slow the continuing improvement of US-Chinese ties.
The Soviets also may hope to keep before China the
option of better relations with Moscow in an effort to
8 April 1980
 tions.
Top Clcc ! 1
The raid yesterday by a Palestinian rejectionist group on a
northern Israeli settlement and renewed pressure by Israeli-supported
Lebanese Christian militia on UN personnel in southern Lebanon have
increased tension in the area again.
Israel may retaliate for the raid, possibly by con-
ducting airstrikes against P
f- a raetg in Lebanon.
the raid, couple with recent small-
scale infiltration attempts, may prompt Israel to suspend
its seven-month-old policy of restraint in favor of once
again attempting to preempt potential Palestinian opera-
controlled enclave.
The most serious attacks by Lebanese Christian mili-
tias on UN forces occurred on Sunday and Monday, following
smaller harassing attacks and the resumption of Christian
shelling. Christian leader Haddad apparently is demon-
strating his displeasure at the recent UN decision to
man full-time the five observation posts established
along the Israeli-Lebanese border inside his Christian-
UN forces.
Haddad also would like to induce the Lebanese
Government to establish a presence in the Palestinian
zone and dissuade it from pressing the militias for
concessions. He hopes to force Beirut to provide his
enclaves with government funds and services in return
for ending Christian attacks on Lebanese targets and
Haddad may be apprehensive that more observers could
Israel may be tacitly encouraging Haddad in the
hope of forestalling the assignment of any more UN
military observers to the border area. The Israelis and
8 April 1980
 8 April 1980
 EGYPT - ARAB STATES: Financial Agreement
Egypt apparently has accepted an International
Monetary Fund schedule for resuming interest payments
on some $2 billion of frozen Saudi, Kuwaiti, and Iraqi
deposits in Egypt's Central Bank. We believe that this
move reflects Cairo's understanding that the funds, with
the possible exception of $30 million held by Iraq,
would remain in Egypt. Egypt froze the deposits last
year to prevent possible withdrawal in retaliation for
President Sadat's peace treaty with Israel.
USSR-VIETNAM: Delivery of Fighter-Bombers
the
Soviets have delivered nine Fitter fighter-bombers to
Da Nang. At least two of the aircraft are the advanced
SU-22, an export version of the SU-17 that is one of the
most modern Soviet aircraft. It can carry 2,000 to
4,000 kilograms of munitions to a combat radius of be-
tween 360 and 630 kilometers. The new aircraft will
improve Vietnam's ground attack capabilities, especially
against China, where the Vietnamese Air Force has been
using MIG-21 interceptors in a ground attack role.
8
8 April 1980
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