NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 11 APRIL 1980

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005148523
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 11, 1980

Director of
Central
Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^
DATE: 01-20-2010
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
11 April 1980
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
11 April 1980
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 Briefs and Comments
Israel-Lebanon: Israelis Dig In . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
NATO: Military Modernization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Egypt : Re Zigious Strife . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Nicaragua: Debt Rescheduling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Eastern Europe - Mozambique: Military Aid . . . . . . . 9
Cuba-Peru: Embassy Refugees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
11 April 1980
 hostages without further US concessions,
Several elected members of the National Assembly have indi-
cated that the Legislature probably will not move to release the
toughest position.
In press interviews, the new legislators take a
hard line on the hostages--threatening to try the "spies"
among them and demanding the return of the Shah. Those
from the cleric-dominated Islamic Republic Party take the
any decision on the hostages.
A handful of moderates, including former Prime Min-
ister Bazargan, take a more conciliatory approach and
criticize the seizure of the US Embassy. The moderates,
however, are not likely to play a dominant role in the
legislature. When the National Assembly does convene,
it will almost certainly look to Ayatollah Khomeini for
A spokesman for the militants said yesterday that
they would kill the hostages if Iraq invades Iran. This
is consistent with Tehran's propaganda line that Iraq
is acting as an agent of the US. (U)
11 April 1980
 China's Attitude on Sanctions
China has not yet commented publicly on the US
sanctions against Iran. The Chinese are keeping a low
profile, publicly expressing only the general hope that
the US and other nations will pursue "sensible" policies
toward Iran.
Beijing privately still believes that sanctions may play
into Moscow's hands and therefore considers them "re-
grettable."
11 April 1980
 Mediterranean
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 ISRAEL-LEBANON: Israelis Dig In
Israeli Defense Minister Weinman,
told US officials in TeZ Aviv yesterday that Israe troops wou
remain in southern Lebanon at Least for the next few days.
The Israeli forces may be there even longer. They
reportedly have begun digging in around the four posi-
tions they established on Wednesday and bulldozing new
roads in the area.
If the Israelis do withdraw, they could easily re-
turn to their new strongpoints. The positions could also
be turned over to Israel's Christian allies, thus increas-
ing their area of responsibility at the expense of the UN.
the Israelis may be preparing to begin new shelling
in response to any further guerrilla acts or in support
of retaliatory actions for the terrorist raid on Monday.
The UN and the countries contributing troops to the
UN force in southern Lebanon are almost certain to press
for a Security Council meeting if Israeli forces are not
withdrawn soon.
3
11 April 1980
 NATO: Military Modernization
The NATO allies probably will not agree on Monday at the meet-
ing of the Defense Planning Committee to significant measures to
help offset a possible US shift of forces from Europe to Southwest
Asia.
The US hopes to persuade the allies to accelerate
fulfillment of military modernization pledges made under
the Alliance's Long-Term Defense Plan. The crisis over
Afghanistan, however, has not increased the allies' will-
ingness to implement measures in the long-term plan or--
with the exception of West Germany and the UK--to commit
themselves firmly to a 3-percent real annual increase in
defense spending. Even if they became convinced that the
US anticipates a significant shift of NATO-earmarked
forces to Southwest Asia in an emergency, the allies will
find it both politically and economically difficult to
accept more responsibility for their own defense.
West Germany is increasing its defense budget by a
billion marks, but these funds are already tied to spe-
cific programs. Bonn probably will be unwilling to add
new programs in the short term without modifying existing
ones. The UK also is spending more for defense, but
part of these funds are intended for British forces
east of Suez.
Italy and smaller allies all plead poverty and note
strong domestic opposition to increased military spend-
ing. As NATO continues this year's review of national
force goals, the Dutch are unlikely to meet the 3-per-
cent goal, and the Italians, Belgians, and Danes seem
unwilling to accept specific challenges designed to
induce governments to strengthen specific military
programs.
4
11 April 1980
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 EGYPT: Religious Strife
Tension is increasing between Muslim extremists and Egypt's
Coptic Christian community of some 4 million.
On Tuesday a dispute between a small number of
Muslims and Copts reportedly led to civil disorders in
Minya, a city in central Egypt with a history of communal
difficulties. In late March, Coptic and Muslim students
fought in Alexandria, and there are reports that inci-
dents have occurred in other cities.
Coptic leaders have become alarmed at the growth in
fundamentalist Islamic activity in Egypt. The Egyptian
Coptic Pope refused to participate in this year's Easter
celebrations, partly to pressure the government to rein
in Islamic student activists. Student protests against
the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the arrival of the
deposed Shah have taken on anti-Coptic overtones.
Most of the initiative in the sectarian strife comes
from radical Muslim groups. Some Egyptian officials be-
lieve that at least one incident was designed to cause
domestic unrest and weaken President Sadat.
The government has played down recent incidents
and tried to discredit rumors of even more serious
events. Sadat previously has demonstrated his resolve
to maintain intercommunal harmony, and he is likely
to involve himself personally in efforts to reduce
the current tension.
7
 NICARAGUA: Debt Rescheduling
Nicaragua's confrontation with its foreign creditors over re-
payment terms on some $500 million of debt could have far-reachinq
consequences for private bank Lending to developing countries.
Managua is in effect asking creditors to repudiate
60 percent of the debt and to reschedule the remainder
over about 25 years at 7 percent interest. With a tight
money market, bank representatives have demanded resched-
uling of the entire debt at high Eurodollar interest
rates. This formula would keep Managua's repayments in
arrears and might lead to default next year.
Should creditors go far to accommodate Managua, they
would probably also protect themselves in the future by
reducing loans to less creditworthy developing countries.
On the other hand, if the negotiations set to resume on
23 April do not lead to agreement, some bankers may well
take legal action against Nicaraguan assets. Having
taken such a step against Nicaragua, creditors would find
it easier to take tough measures against other developing
countries seeking debt relief, including Jamaica, Zaire,
Sudan, and Pakistan.
Private borrowing has been a key tool of the develop-
ing countries for coping with a soaring $53-billion cur-
rent account deficit, stagnant real GNP growth, and a
high rate of inflation. Tighter credit would compound
other problems troubling the developing countries includ-
ing oil price increases, slack demand for their exports,
and less-than-expected OPEC credits.
8
11 April 1980
 EASTERN EUROPE - MOZAMBIQUE: Military Aid
Mozambique is continuing to receive considerable military aid
from Hungary, East Germany, and Bulgaria despite its recent efforts
to open the way for Western economic assistance.
The East Europeans are providing equipment and
training to support Mozambique's effort to create a con-
ventional military force. Much of the equipment is obso-
lete and is being phased out of East European inventories.
Most of the aid is being supplied free or on gener-
ous terms, but the East Europeans also are competing for
sales of military hardware, either for hard currency or
in barter for raw materials. In an effort to get the
best price, Mozambique is encouraging the competition,
which probably will intensify as the Mozambicans seek
more advanced weaponry.
Hungary is Mozambique's second most important source
Since 1976, East Germany has supplied tanks, artil-
lery, and trucks to Mozambique and has agreed to train
Mozambican pilots and aircraft maintenance nersnnnel.
977, Bulgaria has supplied Mozambique with air defense
weaponry, artillery, and ammunition.
9
11 April 1980
 CUBA-PERU: Embassy Refugees
An early solution to the problem posed by the Cuban
refugees in the Peruvian Embassy in Havana is unlikely.
Cuba has not yet responded to Peru's request that the
Intergovernmental Committee for European Migration or
another international organization be allowed to take
charge of the refugees' departure. Peru, which has no
facilities for a massive airlift, had counted on Cuba's
granting permission for the Committee to provide transpor-
tation. Peru's Andean Pact neighbors have not yet made
definite commitments to accept refugees or to assist in
getting them out.
One of Havana's motives in allowing the refugee
influx was to embarrass Lima, which previously had
granted asylum to Cubans who forced their way into the
Peruvian Embassy. The Castro regime may now insist that
Peru alone take charge of the refugees.
10 P
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