NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 16 APRIL 1980

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005148624
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 16, 1980

?" Director of
' Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^
DATE: 01-20-2010
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
16 April 1980
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CO NID 80-090JX
Top Seeret-
 Situation Reports
Briefs and Comments
USSR-US:
Kampuchea
Liberia:
Turkey:
Worsening Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
: Food and Seed Shortage . . . . . . . . . . . .
Situation Stabilizing . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Multilateral Aid Pledged . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
6
7
8
Canada-US: Energy Industry Control . . . . . . . . . . .
9
Seychelles-USSR: Military Aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
South Africa: Budget Implications . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
Special Analysis
Pakistan-Afghanistan: The Refugee Problem . . . . . . . .
11
Trep Sect-et
16 April 1980
 Khomeini's response yesterday to a message from Pope John
Paul II made no reference to the hostages. Khomeini re-
iterated his theme that Iran welcomes the break in rela-
tions with the US. (S)
16 pApri-1-190
 European Support for Sanctions
The European Parliament may adopt a tough resolu-
tion on Iran this week in an effort to influence next
week's meeting of EC Foreign Ministers, according to
press reports from Strasbourg. Some EC members, however,
remain skeptical about sanctions,
cials appear reluctant to compromise France's economic
stake in Iran. They are pessimistic about the effect of
sanctions, are opposed to breaking diplomatic relations,
and are concerned that collective Allied pressure could
push Iran into dependence on the Soviets.
Giscard has yet to make a final
decision but
favoring additional steps by mem er-s a es
Top Seetcet
2
16 April 1980
 3 16 April 1980
 4 16 April 198-0-
 USSR-US: Worsening Relations
Soviet propaganda attacks on the US and on the President in
particular have become notably harsher in recent days. The attacks
indicate a decision to respond sharply to US actions and possibly
a decision to accept a substantial deterioration in relations.
Soviet propaganda has accused the President of
"hypocritical assurances" on Iran and of "impudent lies"
concerning the Soviet Union. The President's boycott
of the Olympic Games has been harshly condemned, and his
speech last Thursday before the American Society of News-
paper Editors has come under particularly strong attack
as confirming that "serious changes are taking place"
in American foreign policy.
The theme that US policy has undergone a basic,
long-term change was underscored in a public lecture in
Leningrad on Sunday in which the audience was advised
that the US and the USSR are in for an extended period
of tension. This subject has been debated among Soviet
spokesmen recently, with some insisting that current US
policy merely reflects electoral calculations, and others
claiming that relations will continue to worsen for a
long time to come due to basic shifts in American policy.
Several recent actions suggest that Moscow has con-
cluded that relations will indeed remain poor for a long
time and that US steps require a strong Soviet response.
Most notable of these actions have been several press
articles alleging "illegal" American espionage activity
in the Soviet Union, harassment of US diplomats in Lenin-
grad, tightening of visa issuances to US officials and
private citizens, and increased harassment of American
tourists in the Soviet Union.
The harsher tone of the treatment given the US is
reflected more broadly in this year's May Day slogans.
they stress international tensions more than in
the past, and Brezhnev's "peace program," unlike in pre-
vious years, is ignored.
Top Secret
5 116 April 1980
 KAMPUCHEA: Food and Seed Shortage
Planned relief efforts to provide 440,000 tons of food and
agricultural assistance during the remainder of this year to Kam-
puchea will leave the country short by about 225,000 tons of food
and some 60,000 tons of rice seed.
Food supplies in Kampuchea are nearing exhaustion,
Until the next major harvest begins in December, we
believe that a total of 645,000 tons of milled rice or
its caloric equivalent will be needed to feed the coun-
try's estimated 5.2 million people. The dry season crop
now being harvested probably will provide no more than
15,000 to 20,000 tons of milled rice.
Assistance plans of international organizations,
the USSR and Soviet Bloc countries, and private agencies
call for delivery of about 400,000 tons of food between
now and December. Such deliveries would fulfill about
two-thirds of Kampuchea's estimated food requirements,
leaving a shortfall of some 225,000 tons of food.
In addition, over 100,000 tons of rice seed will
be needed this spring to return the country to self-
sufficiency in food. Little seed appears available in
the western provinces, which contain roughly one-half
of Kampuchea's rice-producing land. Relief agency plans
for providing 52,000 tons of seed will probably leave
the country with a rice seed shortage amounting to about
half of its requirements.
6 16 April 1980
 LIBERIA: Situation Stabilizing
The security situation in Monrovia has improved steadily, but
tension has surfaced in the ruling military Council.
Many businesses, stores, and schools reopened yes-
terday, and a number of US citizens are attempting to
resume normal business. Roving bands of soldiers have
dispersed, apparently in response to stern government
warnings that any troops caught harassing citizens or
looting would be executed. Travel restrictions appar-
ently will be lifted soon, and the airport and banks are
set to reopen.
The government appears to be taking steps to ease
Army pressures for reven e on former government officials.
civilian and military members
of the Cabinet agreed on a list of at most 10 persons--
ostensibly the most corrupt--who will be executed, while
others will have their property confiscated. There also
are reports that there soon will be a mass release of
individuals who have been arrested over the last three
days.
Such moderation may reflect the positive influence
of Foreign Minister Matthews
Minister of Planning
Tipoteh and Minister of State for Presidential Affairs
Boley also are having a moderating influence.
There are signs, however, of strain among Cabinet
members and within the ruling military People's Redemp-
tion Council. Tribal rivalry among the soldiers may be
the cause of tension in the Council;
be dominated by members of Doe's tribe--a minority in
the Army--friction is likely to persist.
7 16 April
 TURKEY: Multilateral Aid Pledged
Western governments meeting in Paris yesterday pledged $1.16
billion in emeraencu aid to Turkey, the second such package within
the past year.
The US and West Germany will be the largest donors,
having pledged $295 million each; Italy pledged $115 mil-
lion, and France, Japan, and the EC each pledged $100
million. A pledging session last month ended in failure
when participants were unable to agree on specific aid
totals. Success this time around was due at least in part
to fears that without a new transfusion of aid the Demirel
government would have been hard pressed to survive, let
alone carry through with much-needed reforms.
Unlike the $916 million pledged last year, of which
only about half has reach Ankara, aid pledged yesterday
involved easy repayment terms that will encourage Turkey
to draw on the available funds. The impact on this
year's current account, nevertheless, will depend on how
quickly the aid reaches Ankara.
The aid package may serve to encourage other govern-
ment aid, particularly from Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is
likely to contribute about $300 million.
8 16 April 1980
 CANADA-US: Energy Industry Control
Prime Minister Trudeau's new government has taken
a first step toward fulfilling its pledge to increase
domestic ownership of Canada's oil and natural gas in-
dustry from the present 25 percent to 50 percent by
1990. Ottawa's Foreign Investment Review Agency on
Monday rejected the sale of western Canadian oil and
natural gas deposits by a US firm to Mobil Oil of Canada,
a wholly owned US subsidiary. Presumably the present
US owner will have to find a Canadian buyer for its hold-
ings. As envisioned, the Trudeau program is to restrict
US acquisitions of existing Canadian oil and gas deposits
and limit US equity participation in any new discoveries.
Currently US firms own 75 percent of Canada's oil and
gas industry.
16 April 1
 Aldabra
Islands
Malawi L
*LILONGWE
MORONI
Comoros
Socotra
(S. Yemen)
Mahe
Island*
Amirante ......
Isles
Iles Glorieuses
(France)
Ile duan Madagascar
o*ambique.. de Nova
(France) ANTANANARIVO*
fie Tromelin
(France)
Laccadive,
Minicoy and
Amindivi
Islands
(India)
British Indian Ocean Territory
(BIOT)
Agalega Islands
(Mauritius)
Chargados
Carajos Shoals
(Mauritius)
0 500
Kilometers
PORT Mauritius Rodrigues Boundary representation is
LOUIS* (Mauritius) not neoeaar riily authoritative.
 SEYCHELLES-USSR: Military Aid
In a reversal of President Rene's policy of refusing
all military training from Moscow, eight Seychelles en-
listed men departed last month for training in the So-
viet Union. Last February the Soviets delivered several
armored personnel carriers and field artillery pieces to
the Seychelles. Military training previously has been
provided by a small Tanzanian advisory group, but Presi-
dent Nyerere's unwillingness to provide additional mili-
tary assistance appears to have led Rene to turn to
Moscow.
SOUTH AFRICA: Budget Implications
Black leaders in South Africa are criticizing Pre-
toria's budget for the 1981 fiscal year because it does
little to improve the economic position of the black com-
munity. The budget will promote a real economic growth
rate of about 6 percent through a $1.8 billion tax cut,
which will primarily benefit whites. The tax cut was
made possible by lucrative gold earnings last year that
resulted in a record balance-of-payments surplus and
doubled mining revenues. Lifting the import surcharge
should also stimulate Growth by lowering prices of im-
ported capital goods.
Tep-Secret
10 16 April 1980
 PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: The Refugee Problem
Support for rebels in Afghanistan by substantial
numbers of Afghan refugees in the border zones of Pakistan
could provoke retaliatory action by Soviet forces. The
Afghan male refugees who reenter Afghanistan from Pakistan
to defend their tribal homelands return periodically to
Pakistani territory to visit their families, to acquire
arms and ammunition, and to seek medical treatment. They
are included in the "foreign elements" that the Afghan
Government and Soviet spokesmen claim are responsible for
the widespread resistance in Afghanistan.
Even if it were so inclined, the Pakistani Govern-
ment could not prevent the movement of small groups of
people across the border, which cuts through mountainous
terrain in tribal territory over which government forces
have never exercised more than limited control.
The Afghan Government and the Soviets so far have
been restrained in their reactions to refugee cross-
border activities. Last fall the Afghan Government--
probably at the urging of Soviet advisers--attempted to
alleviate the refugee problem by establishing a grace
period during which there would be no reprisals against
returning refugees.
16 April 19 0
 Pakistan: Afghan Refugee Camps
Afghani`s t an
Fed. Admin.
Tribal AreasV'
200
Kilometers
Arabian
Sea
Boundary reptesentation is
not necessarily authoritative.
China
North-Wet
/Chinese Liae\
?`Provincef'i
*9SLAMABAD
 Although the period was extended, few refugees
accepted the offer.
The Soviets presently are trying to seal the
Pakistani-Afghan border from the Afghan side, but their
efforts are unlikely to succeed. As time goes on, the
Soviets may be tempted to launch air or ground attacks
against rebel sanctuaries in Pakistan. The rugged
terrain in the border zone would not preclude small
cross-border raids by Soviet ground units, although
mechanized equipment would be restricted to three or
four major crossing points.
Retaliation Danger Zones
The spring offensive by Afghan and Soviet military
forces in the Konar Valley in eastern Afghanistan, which
began in early March, increased the flow of refugees
into Pakistan across the section of the border north of
the Kyber Pass. The Soviets have expanded their anti-
guerrilla operations into the provinces south of the
Kabul River Valley, making the Parachinar area of the
Kurram Valley the primary danger zone. The Kurram Valley
is a traditional invasion route into Pakistan from
Afghanistan.
The Refugees
By current estimates more than 700,000 Afghan ref-
ugees are located on the Pakistani side of the border.
Most are Afghan Pushtun tribesmen taking refuge among
their fellow Pushtun tribesmen who populate Pakistan's
North-West Frontier Province. Fewer than 110,000 are
in Baluchistan. These rural Afghan Pushtuns, with their
warrior traditions and conservative Islamic outlook, are
among the most active opponents of Communist rule. The
number will grow as refugees displaced by the current
military operations make their way to Pakistan.
Top Sccrct
12
16 pri
 There are now 53 concentrations of refugees that
in a broad sense can be considered camps. Of these, 23
are in the North-West Frontier Province and 30 are in
Baluchistan. The size of these encampments ranges from
roughly 500 to 11,000; the number fluctuates as refugees
move in and out.
No clear pattern emerges on the composition of the
refugee groups. Children up to 14 years old constitute
a third to half the total number of refugees, and in
most camps there are twice as many children as women.
The ratio of men to women is high in some camps, low in
others.
Cross-border tribal ties, combined with the tendency
to travel in extended family units, have enabled the
refugees to survive without much government support. The
need, however, for food, shelter, and sanitation systems
is great. Most refugees eventually register with govern-
ment agencies in order to establish eligibility for relief
supplies, including UN aid administered by the Pakistani
Government.
Outlook
Military activity in the borderlands has intensified
and is expected to accelerate. To avoid provoking the
Soviets, the Pakistanis may already have tried to move
the refugees into camps away from the border. This would
also facilitate distribution of relief supplies, allow
better control over the movement of refugees in the fron-
tier areas, and reduce the tension that is sure to arise
between the refugees and the local population over graz-
ing and water rights and other economically related is-
sues. The refugees, however, have exhibited a reluctance
to leave the border area near their homelands and may
resist the government's efforts to relocate them.
13
16 April 1980
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