FOIA
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY ARTICLE - GLOBAL FINANCIAL: HOW A COPING SCENARIO COULD UNRAVEL
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
0005284260
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
3
Document Creation Date:
June 22, 2015
Document Release Date:
March 10, 2009
Case Number:
F-2008-01128
Publication Date:
November 19, 1997
File:
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 DOC_0005284260.pdf | 73.29 KB |
Body:
(b) (1) (b) (3) 1-65-5 wz) C? National Intelligence Daily Wednesday, 19 November 1997 TepBeeret 19 November 1997 PASS NID 97-0269CX APPROVED FOR RELEASED DATE: 04-Feb-2009 Special Analyses decline by about one-third of a percentage point next year and that an upward growth path will resume within 18 months. - This scenario includes a $50-60 billion improvement next year in ASEAN current account balances offset by deteriorating trade The global economic outlook would worsen considerably if deflation in Japan and a weak yen made ASEAN exports less competitive or if Korea's financial crisis deepened. Alternatively, higher interest rates in the US and Europe would undermine the exchange rate and the macropolicy adjustments already made in Asia and Latin America to cope with their financial problems. - East Asian and Latin American economies remain vulnerable to further shocks because every month they must renew large amounts of short-term foreign credits; South Korea and Brazil each roll over about $6 billion monthl - Seoul and Tokyo this week hinted at rescue packages for their financial sectors, but the measures may be insufficient grow[ an weak currencies in Japan and South Korea would erode many of the gains of the last round of currency depreciations in Southeast Asia; ASEAN growth and exports would be depressed, and another round of sharp depreciations would be unavoidable. &sia's economic problems would mount rapidly. Slow If the crisis extended to Japan or worsened in South Korea, US growth would becut about 1 percentage point and the US current account deficit would increase by $45 billion next year and $75 billion in 1999 met 10 19 November 1997 - World trade would be reduced by nearly $400 billion a year If tighter economic measures in the US-reflecting'recent data that suggest rising US wages and a taut labor market-coincided with the spreading and deepening Asian economic crisis, the US economy would have difficulty absorbing increased exports from Asia. At the same time, EU economic policy makers would be constrained from responding to the Asian crisis if they are focused on satisfying Maastricht deficit criteria and setting internal exchange rates. - A 0.5-percentage-point increase in US interest rates would add $150 million each month to the rollover obligations in Asia and Latin America and cut US growth and imports. - Under this scenario, Asia and Latin America would face further economic and political turmoil as capital inflows slowed and trade Tail Ceara, 11 19 November 1997
Printer-friendly version