INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284793
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: January 29, 1999

Contents
International Environmental Intelligence Brief
DCI Environmental Center Issue 99/1 29 January 1999
cm r'D C-0 co Cn CACO L3 C) M
Busy Global Environmental Agenda This Year
Post Buenos Aires Agenda for Climate Change Looks Daunting
Chinese Gas Supply Increase Faces Large Hurdles
Weaker La Nina in Southeast Asia Brings Unexpected Benefits
Cameron Seeking Solution to Dangers of Gaseous Lake
Organized Crime Syndicates Tied to Environmental Abuses
In Brief Environmental Issues
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
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 Busy Global Environmental Agenda This
Year
Strategies to implement the Kyoto Protocol on
climate change under the Buenos Aires Action
Plan approved in November will be the focus of
several high-level meetings this year. A major
challenge for US negotiators will be to encourage
more Group of 77 members to accept, at least in
principle, voluntary carbon emissions reduction
commitments.
With the backing of Argentina-which in
November indicated its intent to establish
a target Chile may try to bring together
representatives from about 15 developing
and five developed countries to discuss
steps they would need to take to assume
emissions commitments,
- The hardline stance China, India, and
Saudi Arabia have taken in the past
suggests they will remain firmly opposed
to such commitments at the next
Conference of Parties in Bonn in
October.
Negotiators again will seek ways to implement an
emissions trading regime and other flexibility
mechanisms under the protocol. EU members
favor a cap on use of these mechanisms, with
Germany and some others wanting to limit to 50
percent or less the share of emissions reduction
countries can claim from international emissions
trading
Biosafety Protocol To Be Completed
The final talks in February on the Biosafety
Protocol to the Convention on Biological Diversity
that will control the trade and release of genetically
modified organisms (GMOs) will be contentious.
The results, which are to be submitted to a special
follow-on Conference of Parties to the Convention,
could significantly affect more than $10 billion in
US trade in agricultural and pharmaceutical
products.
- Negotiators will focus on avoiding
looming US-EU trade disputes over the
EU's insistence that GMO products be
separated and labeled and its rejection of
some GMO imports because of
environmental and safety concerns.
- US exports of gene-altered soybeans and
corn-and the 60 percent of processed
foods that contain them-could be
affected.
Chemical Treaty Moving Forward
Progress is likely this year on the draft treaty on
persistent organic pollutants (POPs) because most
countries have agreed to ban at least 12 chemicals.
Key to achieving a treaty will be arriving at a
consensus on how to add chemicals and to address
liability and compensation demands from
developing countries for disposal of obsolete
POPs.
- The UK and other EU members may try
to broaden the treaty to include chemicals
banned under a recently concluded
protocol on long-range transboundary air
pollution
- Developing countries will push for
exemption for DDT and a fund to aid
conversion to alternative chemicals
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings, 1999
25-29 January
1-5 February
15-19 February
22-23 February
24-26 February
March
19-30 April
3-14 May
10-18 May
31 May-2 June
31 May-11 June
4-8 October
25 October-5 November
15-26 November
Climate Change: Meeting of Umbrella Group Sydney
Organic Pollutants
Second Meeting of the Intergovernmental
Negotiating Committee for Persistent
UNEP Governing Council Meeting Nairobi
Sixth Session of the Open-Ended Ad Hoc Cartagena
Working Group on a Biosafety Protocol
Extraordinary Session of the Conference Cartagena
UN Commission on Sustainable Development New York
Donors' Conference for Small Island States -
G-8 Environmental Ministerial
Bonn
UN Commission on Sustainable Development New York
- Ad Hoc Working Group on Oceans
OECD Environment Policy Committee Paris
Seventh Session of the Commission on New York
Sustainable Development (CSD-7)
Third Session of the Intergovernmental Geneva
Forum on Forests
Seventh Conference of Parties to the San Jose
Ramsar Convention (Wetlands)
ECOSUD 99-Second International Conference Lemnos,
on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development Greece
Climate Change Convention Subsidiary Bonn
Bodies Meeting
Biodiversity Convention Expert Panel TBD
on Access and Benefit Sharing
Fifth Session of the Conference of Parties Bonn
to the Climate Change Convention
Third Session of the Conference of Parties Recife
to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification
Un ified 366as6PMS-99
 Post-Buenos Aires Agenda for Climate
Change Looks Daunting
In the wake of the Buenos Aires meeting last
November, key players have set an ambitious
agenda for their meetings in Bonn in June and
October but are still far apart on how to develop
the modalities of the Kyoto Protocol. With the
exception of Argentina and Kazakhstan,
developing countries continue to resist
commitments on emissions.
The Umbrella Group of non-EU developed
countries in mid-January met in Australia to work
on the flexibility mechanisms-international
emissions trading, a clean development mechanism
(CDM), and joint implementation of energy-saving
projects. The Group levied assignments to the US,
Japan, and Australia to advocate Group positions
on each of the three mechanisms respectively,
- Russia has proposed to use its
prospective revenue from emissions
trading for structural adjustment of its
economy rather than for monitoring its
emissions-a move opposed by the US.
Meanwhile, the EU's agenda is affected by
disarray over extraneous issues. Germany appears
unable to offer leadership-even though it holds
the EU presidency until July-because it is
embroiled in a domestic debate among the parties
in the coalition government, the nuclear power
industry, and Bavaria over the pace of phasing out
nuclear reactors in the German utility sector.
-- The Greens want to force the pace and
the Socialists want to go slower, while
the industry and Bavaria oppose early
reactor retirements.
Germany is at odds with France and the
UK over compensation for possible
cancellation of nuclear recycling
contracts with them, putting Bonn in a
difficult position to promote an activist
agenda for the EU on climate change,
including its proposal for harmonization
of higher energy taxes.
Some other EU members, however, have a
coherent agenda focused on preparing a strategy
paper for member states by June. They urge the
EU to apply the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms to
the. internal EU market, integrate the CDM into the
EU's policies with developing countries and
coordinate energy taxes and voluntary emissions
reductions
 Chinese Gas Supply Increase Faces Large
Hurdles
Chinese officials-in part because of
environmental concerns and the need for
petrochemical feedstock-project Chinese demand
for gas in 2010 will reach 90 billion cubic meters
(bcm) of gas. The current demand of 21 bcm is
largely satisfied by domestic production, but key
impediments to expansion include a modest gas
resource base, minimal pipeline infrastructure, and
the absence of a clear gas development strategy.
Beijing could turn to liquefied natural gas-most
likely from established producers in Southeast Asia
and Australia-and to pipeline gas from Russia or
Central Asia to help meet its requirements. High
costs and long lead times to build infrastructure,
however, suggest gas from these sources will not
contribute much to China's gas supply in the
medium term.
- Beijing recently announced that its first
LNG project -a 4 bcm power plant in
Guangdong to be completed in 2005-
can move out of the prefeasibility study
stage.
pipeline gas is unlikely to
be fully on stream until about 2010,
Each
proposed pipeline project will cost at
least $7 billion, according to media
reports
Domestic long-distance gas transport infrastructure
to exploit China's reserves, however, virtually is
nonexistent, and Beijing's plans for pipelines and
for the financing of gas-sector development remain
vague. Foreign participation in China's gas sector
will remain modest for the next decade unless
Beijing creates a more favorable investment
climate for the sector.
US and other foreign firms could provide
technical assistance to improve recovery
at Chinese gasfields as well as access to
project financing and foreign gas
supplies.
Measures needed to improve the
prospects for profitable operations
include gas price increases,
improvements in the.legal system, and
bureaucratic streamlining
Even with imports and substantial foreign
involvement, CIA estimates gas will not displace a
substantial amount of coal in the country's total
energy mix or provide much more than 2 percent
of total primary energy-its current share-in
2010. Because of its continued small share of
China's total energy, increased gas use is unlikely
to slow the country's carbon dioxide emissions
growth.
 Weaker La Nina in Southeast Asia Brings
Unexpected Benefits
a weak to moderate La Nina in Southeast
Asia this year rather than the moderate to strong
event forecast earlier. The data indicate La Nina
conditions will peak in February or March and will
continue into June.
Southern Kalimantan, southern Sumatra, and the
rest of Indonesia-particularly West Java-have
received nearly normal seasonal rainfall over the
past 30 days. Malaysia, northern Kalimantan, and
the southern Philippines have received above
normal rainfall, but regional meteorologists say the
increase may be the result of the normal monsoon
rather than La Nina.
- Floods and landslides-made worse by
the reduced vegetation from the fires of
1997-98-have killed at least 85 in
Indonesia and have disrupted the
production of cocoa, coffee, palm oil, and
pepper, according to press reports.
La Nina-marked by cooler than normal sea-
surface temperatures in the central and
eastern tropical Pacific Ocean-generally
results in above normal seasonal precipitation
throughout most of Southeast Asia. Because
the drought and forest fires associated with the
EL Nifto of 1997-98 left many areas
susceptible to ftooding and erosion,
government officials were concerned that a
strong La Nina would create a humanitarian
Rain Makes Grai
The Philippine Government says the moderate
rains brought by La Nina have allowed farmers to
plant more corn, vegetables, and other crops and
may help the agricultural sector recover, according
to press reports. Officials say a less destructive La
Nina could help increase rice production by more
than 9 percent this quarter-as compared with the
first quarter of last year-reducing rice imports.
Favorable weather in Indonesia since the planting
of the main rice crop late last year has increased
estimate for milled rice production this
year to 33 million tons, an increase of 9 percent
from the poor crop last year and 4 percent above
the recent average.
- Jakarta's aggressive imports of rice last
year-25 percent of world trade-have
bolstered rice stocks to more than 2
million metric tons,
 Cameroon Seeking Solution to Dangers of
Gaseous Lake
e raga a natura am ate no ern en o
Lake Nyos in Cameroon has been eroding rapidly
in the few centuries since it was created. A failure
could affect as many as 10,000 people, sending
more than 40 million cubic meters of lake water
down the Kumbi and Katsina Ala Rivers to the
densely populated Benue Plateau and the low lying
city of Katsina Ala in Nigeria almost 225 km
A flood could also release a larger, more deadly
cloud of carbon dioxide than the one disgorged
from the lake in 1986 that killed more than 1,700
people. The threat of a carbon dioxide release is
increasing even without failure of the dam, because
the concentration of the gas-continuously
recharged by underground springs-is approaching
the level that existed before the 1986 discharge.
The Government of Cameroon has made a
proposal for Japanese funding to reduce the gas
concentration in the lake by pumping gas-rich
bottom water to the surface. Once the threat of a
carbon dioxide release was mitigated, the lake
would be drained to below the base of the natural
dam to eliminate the threat of a flood
 Organized Crime Syndicates Tied to
Environment Abuses
The involvement of organized crime syndicates in
activities such as dumping of toxic waste and
trafficking in endangered species could bring them
several billion dollars annually. Companies owned
by Italian crime groups have won contracts from
local governments in Italy to dispose of toxic
waste.
- Italian officials last October were
investigating an unspecified Ndrangheta
family for dumping radioactive waster off
Italy's southern coast and a Camorra clan
for disposing 30 million metric tons of
toxic waster near Naples, according to
press reports.
Ethnic Chinese syndicates-including
members of the Wo Shing Wo and 14K
groups-smuggle endangered species
and rhino horn and ivory from South
Africa to Asia,
Few governments have recognized these activities
and the effects on the environment, and others may
turn a blind eye to them. Press reports say a crime
group involved in stealing mahogany and other
high-quality timber from the Amazon forest has
ties to officials in Brazil's Institute for the
Environmen which is responsible for forest
management
Se
 Selected Criminal Groups' Involvement in Environmental Abuses
Italians (Ndrangheta and I $3.5 billion
Camorra)
Italian organized crime groups
control dumpsites, transportation
and disposal of illegal waste, and the
local administrations that contract to
the disposal companies, according to
press reports.
Illegal trade in
endangered species
Chinese Triads (Wo Shing
Wo and the 14K Wau),
Italians and Russians
Chinese organized crime groups are
prominent traffikers in endangered
Russian organized crime groups may
earn as much as $3 billion annually
from fish poaching.
Ozone depleting
substances (CFCs)
Unidentified syndicates were involved
in the smuggling of 800 metric tons of
CFCs and halon gas from China to
Europe and the US last year,
according to press reports.
Asian, Italian, and Turkish crime
syndicates have been accused of
burning and cutting forest areas for
construction purposes and personal
gain.
 In Brief
Danube Little Hurt '
Russian Trial Halted
The diesel fuel spills in January in the Danube-causing slicks as big as
55 km long and 300 meters wide-pose little lasting threat to the
environment or to Bulgaria's Kozloduy nuclear power plant. Because
the diesel fuel will evaporate with little residue as it flows downstream,
severe damage to plant life is unlikely. Romania and Bulgaria are
cooperating to warn Danube water consumers and to carry out cleanup
measures. Press reports say the Kozloduy plant has implemented a plan
for cooling its reactors in the unlikely event that its riverside pumping
blower" defense Pasko's attorneys have advanced.
A judge in late January temporarily halted the contentious treason trial
.of Russian Navy journalist and environmentalist Grigoriy Pasko,
ordering defense attorneys to cease talking about the case to the media.
The gag order will allow the FSB to emphasize Pasko's alleged criminal
activities publicly without having to refute the "environmental whistle