INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284801
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: July 30, 1999

(b)(1)
(b)(3)
International Environmental Intelligence Brief
DCI Environmental Center
Contents
Issue 99/7 30 July 1999
Drought Sharpens West Bank Water Dis ut
Egypt Cooperating on Nile Issues
Russian Drought Threatens Grain Harves
Russia Investigating Handling of Environmental "Secrets"
Russian Defense Ministry Cool Toward EWG Participation
Tough Road Ahead for New South Korean Environment Minister
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
Page
1
 Drought Sharpens West Bank Water
Dispute
Drought conditions this summer will complicate
negotiations over the control and allocation of
the diminishing West Bank freshwater supply.
Current water use-even under normal rainfall
conditions-is 50-200 million cubic meters
(mcm) beyond the recharge capacities of the
aquifers in the West Bank and Israel.
- The water shortfall of some 300 mcm
has placed the West Bank aquifers
at risk for saltwater infiltration.
- Press reports, citing sources in the
Israeli Water Ministry, say the water
level in the western aquifer is dropping
by 1 meter per month and is expected
to reach its "red line'-the level
at which it is in danger of saltwater
contamination-by September
Anticipating that Israel will refuse to relinquish
control of West Bank water, the Palestinians are
likely to demand enough water to bring their per
capita consumption levels up to Israeli levels.
The Palestinians use about 80 cubic meters
annually per capita as compared with the Israelis,
who consume 100 cubic meters for household
use and 300 cubic meters overall-the measure
when agricultural consumption is included.
- To match Israeli levels, the Palestinians
would need between 300 and 900 mcm
annually-well beyond the capacity
of the West Bank aquifers
About 500 Palestinians for several hours on 17
July blocked the primary route from Bethlehem
to Hebron, according to press reports. They were
protesting what they perceive to be excessive
water consumption by West Bank settlers and
Israel's refusal to allow them to drill new wells
in the West Bank
Water control and access is one of five
interrelated issues to be settled in permanent
status discussions between the Israelis and
Palestinians. The others are the establishment
of permanent borders between Israel and the
developing Palestinian entity, the future
of Israeli settlements and Palestinian refugees,
and the status. of Jerusalem.
- The borders issue will determine the size
of the territory to be under Palestinian
control, which-in combination with the
water resources the Palestinians eventually
will control-will help determine the
number of returning refugees the
Palestinian Authority can accommodate.
- Resolution of the water dispute will have
to include provisions for the creation
of additional freshwater sources through
recycling or desalination
 - - I - - -
 Egypt Cooperating on Nile Issues
Foreign Minister Moussa last week told
journalists that Egypt and Ethiopia are close to an
understanding on Nile water and that Cairo has
reached similar cooperation agreements with
other Nile Basin states. The ministerial council of
10 Nile Basin countries, which met in May-
along with the tripartite committee that Egypt,
Sudan, and Ethiopia formed at that meeting is
providing the framework for cooperation.
- Cairo will not allow construction of
dams on the Nile without the council's
agreement, according to press reports.
- Egypt does not object to current
Ethiopian water projects, which consist
almost exclusively of microdams.
Egypt's increasing water needs make future
disputes inevitable despite the trend toward
regional cooperation. If fully implemented,
Cairo's planned land reclamation projects,
including the South Valley Development Project,
will require an additional 15.5 billion cubic
meters (bcms) of water per year on top of the
67 bcms Egypt now uses-a rise in usage that
will strain Egypt's relations with upstream
nations.
- Internal political and economic
dislocations in Sudan and Ethiopia
prevent them from using Nile water to its
fullest extent, but improvements could
allow these countries to increase water
use for long-planned irrigation projects.
 Sec
 Russian Drought Threatens Grain Harvest
Russia may increase its imports of grain and
again request assistance from the West because
of drought, a severe late-spring freeze, and low
grain stocks. Russian agricultural specialists have
reduced their estimate for the grain harvest this
year from 70 million metric tons to 50-55 million
tons, slightly above the record low of 48 million
tons last year.
- Premier Stepashin has predicted the
harvest will be at least 60 million tons,
but official midyear forecasts typically
overestimate the final harvest
by 10 to 20 percent
Wheat output may fall more than 3 million tons
short of demand, and wheat diverted from feed
to grain-based foods for the Russian population
will further damage the livestock industry. Recent
scattered rains have helped, but the outlook for the
harvest could worsen if the drought continues.
- Russian grain reserves have been drawn
down to less than 6.5 million tons-
down more than 60 percent from the
same time last year and are equivalent
to less than five weeks of domestic
consumption, according to official
Russian statistics
The EU and US already have delivered more
than half of the $1.5 billion worth of food aid
promised earlier this year. The almost 4 million
tons of grain included in the packs a will hel
boost stocks until the harvest.
Unless the grain outlook improves, Russia will
have to rely on grain imports and barter deals to
meet consumption needs next spring and
summer. Moscow this year hopes to obtain an
estimated 2 million tons of grain in barter deals
with usual partners in exchange for energy, raw
materials, and military technology.
- Hungary has offered to provide as much
as $350 million worth of grain and food
for energy supplies
Russian Agriculture Minister Shcherbak has
said the government has no plans to request
additional grain imports or food assistance but
will compensate losses in southern European
Russia with grain shipments from other regions.
Other officials, however, have said Russia again
will need food assistance from the West,
according to press reports.
- The government, as in the past, may
seek credits to buy wheat from the US
to cover any deficit
Reduced grain supplies will mean higher prices
and continuing hardships for Russian consumers,
especially for the more than 38 percent of the
population below the poverty line. Some regional
leaders, as they did last year, may try to protect
their constituents by imposing controls on food
prices and distribution, which would exacerbate
food shortages in regions that depend on outside
supplies
 Russia: Precipitation, June 1999
Baltic l~ySt Peters
Sea t-' Tall
`, ? Estonia
200 to 400
125 to 200
75 to 125
50 to 75
25 to 50
0 to 25
Poland
Warsaw
Riga* \-
~,. Latvia
The European portion of Russia
experienced dry weather from April to
June this year, with June being especially
dry. The hardest hit area is around
Moscow, but significant dryness spreads
southward into the main crop-growing
regions. Temperatures have been
extreme-either cold or warm. May and
June were particularl warm while
April was cold.
0 Sao Wanet~ ~-X.
0
(million
metric tons)
Production 110.0 85.1 106.9 99.1 813 63.4 69.3 88.5 47.9 50-55n
Imports N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.6 3.7 3.1 1.9 7a
?Eu;mate.
bEstimated import mmtbets for 1999 include commercial imports, bastes, and food assistance from the EU and the US.
Source: Grain Union of Russia and official Russian statistics.
-----mss,-,-- , ?-- ~ -r--- .-' -~- - ? ,:-~ - --
Percent of
Normal Rainfall
 Russia Investigating Handling of
Environmental "Secrets"
The Federal Security Service (FSB) in July
investigated a US citizen and a renowned
Russian scientist in connection with "secret"
information on Russia's environment, according
to Russian media. Media reports say the FSB
in the southern city of Voronezh early in July
deported a US citizen for allegedly passing
unspecified scientific documents to the CIA and
for seeking environmental information about the
heavily polluted Voronezh region.
In a separate case, the FSB in Vladivostok last
week searched the office and residence
of Vladimir Soyfer, a laboratory chief at the
Russian Academy of Sciences Far East Pacific
Oceanographical Institute, and confiscated
"secret" documents, according to Russian media.
His security clearances and passport were voided,
but he has not yet been arrested
Meanwhile, the FSB continues to lead the charge
in accusing high-profile environmental whistle-
blower Aleksandr Nikitin-who coauthored a
published report four years ago on radiation
hazards in the Northern Fleet-of treason based on
Defense Ministry secrecy decrees issued after his
arrest. The FSB early this month charged Nikitin
with espionage for the ninth time, and FSB chief
Patin told Russian media that he is confident that
Nikitin eventually will be convicted.
- Russian military prosecutors in mid-July
informed Nikitin that their court ordered
reinvestigation into the charges against
him affirmed his guilt.
In the case of another environmental whistle-
blower, a Vladivostok court on 20 July convicted
journalist Grigoriy Pasko of "improper military
conduct" and gave him a three-year suspended
sentence but ruled that the charge of treason
against him was unfounded. Pasko's attorneys
have vowed to sue the police for their client's
treatment, according to Russian media. Pasko's
qualified court victory is a blow to the FSB and
military prosecutors, but we have seen no sign
Russian authorities will abandon efforts to convict
other environmental whistle-blowers.j
Soyfer's research has included monitoring
radioactive contamination of the Sea of Japan
from Russian fleet activities. According to one
media report, Soyfer had a thorny relationship
with the Pacific Fleet commander because of his
research.
Another factor in the Soyfer investigation may
be his brother Valeriy, a geneticist and outspoken
critic of Soviet and Russian environmental
policies. Since he emigrated to the US several
years ago, Russian media have criticized him for
his advice to a major US foundation on its
provision of health care and scientific and
environmental assistance to Russia
 Sec
Gold Rush in Russia's Kuril Islands
Nature Reserve
A Russian environmental newsletter says 2 tons
of explosives were delivered this year
to Kunashir Island-the southernmost of the
Kuril Islands-to speed excavation of an open pit
gold mine within the buffer zone of the Kurilsky
Nature Reserve. The nature reserve was
established in 1984 to protect the diverse wildlife
and pristine ecosystem on Kunashir Island.
Expansion of the mining activity will inflame
conflict with the central government because
residents say the local government is powerless
to reverse decisions made on mainland Russia_
Residents are seeking help from environmental
groups to stop the destruction caused by the
mining.
- They are concerned that the Kuril
Islands will be exploited before Russia
and Japan move to transfer the islands
back to Japan
- Press reports say the ore will be
transported to a proposed processing
plant also in the nature reserve's
buffer zone-where a sodium cyanide
leaching process will be used to extract
the gold. Use of sodium cyanide is
prohibited in the zone because of the
severe or permanent damage it can
cause to the ecosystem
The Kurile Mining and Geological Company,
which according to press reports has had a poor
environmental record, received approval for
exploratory work from Sakhalin environmental
authorities by submitting only the portions of
the project that would be the least controversial.
According to the environmental newsletter, the
sole dissenting vote came from the director of
the Kurilsky Nature Reserve.
 Tough Road Ahead for New South Korean
Environment Minister
Dr. Kim Myong cha's recent appointment has
renewed hope among environmentalists that
President Kim is serious about environmental
concerns, according to media reports, but Dr.
Kim will have little scope to implement major
new environmental initiatives in a government
focused on economic restructuring. Her Ministry
lacks influence in the administration, the Office
of the Prime Minister coordinates environmental
policy, and other ministries can veto
environmental projects by claiming economic
impact on their areas of responsibility
Kim, taking her first government position, is
a chemistry professor and former Dean of the
College of Science at Suk-Myong Women's
University. As a leading member of the Citizens'
Coalition for Economic Justice, she has been
a member of the President's unification advisory
On the positive side, one of her predecessors,
Minister Ch'oe Chae-uk, was instrumental in
organizing the first-ever meeting between
environment ministers of South Korea, Japan,
and China last January. The meeting led
to agreement to strengthen cooperation
in pollution prevention, in protection of the
marine environment, and in developing
environmental technology, according to press
reports
South Korean environmental
officials generally back US initiatives and are
key partners in supporting multilateral climate
change initiatives. South Korea, which imports
about 97 percent of its energy needs, favors
programs promoting fuel efficiency and
technological innovation.
council since last year
IDr. Kim is the
third environment minister since February 1997.
One of South Korea's largest
environmental organizations says
68 percent of the public
is dissatisfied with President Kim's
environmental policies.
The President recently approved
construction on protected park land
in various regions around the country
and exempted the landowners from
environmental impact reviews despite
opposition from environmental groups
and public protests.
 In Brie
Dam gets help from abroad Beijing for the first time has contracted with foreign firms -Electricite
de France and the French Technical Supervision Bureau-to monitor
17 Chinese plants manufacturing generators for the Three Gorges Dam
according to a Chinese press re ort.
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings
30 August
6-11 September
9-13 September
48 October
25 October-5 November
15-26 November
30 November-3 December
6-10 December
31-January-4 February 2000
Basel Convention Ad Hoc Working Group
on Liability
Third Session of the POPs
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee
APEC Senior Officials Meeting
Biodiversity Convention Expert Panel
on Access and Benefit Sharing
Fifth Session of the Conference of Parties
to the Climate Change Convention
Third Session of the Conference of Parties
to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification
Fifth Conference of Parties to the
Basel Convention
Sixth International Conference on
Acid Rain Deposition
Subsidiary Body for Scientific, Technical
and Technological Advice to the
Biodiversity Convention
Recife
Seattle
Basel
Tsukuba,
Japan