INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284812
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: February 13, 1998

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Iraq: Saddam's Options for Environmental Destruction
Brazil: New Environmental Bill Faces Old Challenges
International Environmental Intelligence Brief
DC1 Environmental Center
Contents
Articles
Page
Calendar
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
Hazardous Waste Meeting to Address Controversial Trade Ban 5
El Nino Impact Limited So Far But Risk Remains
13 February 1998
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
 -Te-cret-
Iraq: Saddam's Options for
Environmental Destruction
There is no evidence that Saddam plans to
spill oil in the Persian Gulf or cause other
environmental damage in response to allied
attacks on Iraq as he did during the Gulf
War. During Desert Storm, much of the
damage originated in Iraqi-occupied Kuwait,
but Baghdad now would have to damage its
own land, water, and oilfields.
? In Kuwait, Iraq ignited oil in deep
trenches to slow the allied advance.
Iraq would release up to 1.5 million
b/d-almost its entire southern daily produc-
tion-into Gulf waters via its Al Faw and
Mina' al oil terminals and from Abu Flus
and via the Zubayr waterway. Baghdad
could dump oil from tankers under its
control and mine several sunken tankers off
the coast of Iraq; when sunk in 1991, the
largest held 700,000 barrels-much of
which has since leaked.
If Iraq spilled oil near Umm Qasr, the
oil could threaten water intakes for
desalination and power facilities in
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
? Kuwait City's desalination plant,
however, normally is sheltered by
seasonal weather patterns and currents.
The only sure way to stop oil flows into the
waters around Iraq would be to occupy the
oilfields and manually close valves at the
spill sources. Even if a key pipeline
junction were severed using precision
bombing, oil from the rupture could spill
into nearby marshlands and make its way to
the Zubayr waterway.
During Desert Storm, Baghdad dumped
about 9-10 million barrels of crude oil into
the Gulf from tankers and oil terminals
located off of Kuwait. The oil formed a
roughly 600-square-mile slick that
threatened Saudi desalination plants.
One-third of the oil evaporated, much of it
sank, and more than 1 million barrels of oil
were removed from the Gulf by April 1991,
Nonetheless, about 400 miles of the Gulfs
western shoreline were contaminated. In
February 1991, the retreating Iraqi Army
dynamited 600 Kuwaiti oil wells, spilling or
burning an estimated 900 million barrels of
crude before firefighters extinguished the
last fire nine months later.
3x~e~
 Brazil: New Environmental Bill Faces
Old Challenges
Brazil's legislature late last month passed
a long-stalled bill giving the Institute for
Environmental Affairs (IBAMA) authority
to prosecute crimes against the environment,
according to press reports. The bill, first
sent to Congress seven years ago, for the
first time defines pollution and deforestation
as crimes punishable by stiff fines and jail
sentences
Legislators overcame their reluctance to
put economic development at risk for the
sake of Brazil's international environmental
image. Shortly before the bill was passed,
government reports revealed massive
deforestation, generating unfavorable
attention in the domestic press.
President Cardoso was an avid
proponent of the bill and may have
strong-armed legislators in anticipation
of his trip to Europe, where leaders
have long been critical of Brazil's
environmental policy. '
? Press reports say Congress-under
fire for delaying this bill and other
reforms-may have been looking to
produce a legislative achievement to
improve its image.
Officials are touting the bill as proof of
Brazil's commitment to the environment,
but leading nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs) say the bill offers weak protection
and is unlikely to deal with the IBAMA's
shortcomings. The bill's final version
omitted articles that would have held
shareholders responsible for damage
inflicted by their companies and that
would have authorized NGOs to take
legal proceedings against environmental
offenders.
Government-imposed budget cuts to
counter the affects of Asian spillover
will compound difficulties in enforcing
the new bill.
.The IBAMA's report on deforestation last
month indicated 60,000 square kilometers of
the Amazon an area twice the size of
Belgium-had been deforested in Brazil
between 1995 and last year.
 Sec
 t
 Hazardous Waste Meeting to Address
Controversial Trade Ban
Participants in the Fourth Conference of
Parties (COP) to the Basel Convention on
Hazardous Waste beginning on 23 February
in Malaysia will debate for approval a final
list of those wastes that will be banned for
export and those that can still be traded for
recycling.' If the parties agree to adopt the
list of waste categories drawn up by the
Technical Working Group (TWG), they
will ease the debate that began in 1994
when the Basel parties-at the urging of the
Nordic countries, China, and many G-77
countries-agreed to ban immediately all
hazardous waste shipments from OECD
countries to non-OECD countries for
disposal, and to ban waste exported for
recycling by 1998.
? The debate has centered on whether to
include in the ban wastes such as scrap
metals, plastics, and paper that are
considered by the US and many other
OECD countries to be recoverable
commodities.
? At the last COP in 1995 some
developing countries-led by
Brazil, Chile, Korea, and South
Africa-broke ranks with the G-77 on
the grounds that a total ban would
deprive them of cheap secondary
materials and contravene WTO free
trade rules
1 This article is an updated version of one that was
published in September 1997 just before the October
COP in Kuala Lumpur was postponed due to the
fires.
Although the OECD to non-OECD country
ban still stands
growing number of parties want to
incorporate the TWG's waste lists into the
legal framework of the Basel Convention as
soon as possible,
? At a meeting of the Basel
Implementation Committee last June,
Chile and the EU, among others, said
they support formal adoption of the
waste lists
These countries, along with Canada
and Japan, argue that such an
amendment would limit the scope of
the controversial ban and end
ambiguity over which wastes are
banned from trade.
Moreover, agreement may help close
loopholes that facilitate unscrupulous waste
dealers who trade in illegal hazardous
wastes under the guise of recycling and so
called "trash for cash schemes."
 As a non-party to the convention, the
US will still be required to develop bilateral
agreements in order to export of import
wastes for recycling; such bilateral agree-
ments exist with Malaysia and one is being
negotiated with Brazil and Singapore.
there is
growing support for codification of the
convention's Article 11 that will permit
bilateral hazardous waste trade agree-
ments to continue. Nonetheless,
Denmark and some EU member states
insist that once the ban amendment
takes effect, OECD countries party to
the convention may not trade with one
another or with non-OECD countries
under Article 11 agreements
 El Nino Impact Limited So Far
But Risk Remains
Despite concerns about localized drought
during the planting season last December,
weather conditions in South Africa have
remained favorable for crops, including
maize, so far this season.
surpluses in good weather years
remainder of the growing season,
estimates South Africa's 1998 maize
harvests will be 6.8 million tons. This
is about 25 percent less than last year.
South Africa ordinarily produces grain
assuming normal weather for t e
However, because some farmers planted
maize by early December in response to
El Nino alerts and others waited until late
December, the total crop will experience a
protracted period in which it is vulnerable
to the hot, dry weather common during
the South African summer regardless of
El Nino's effect.
? Sustained temperatures above
93 degrees--even for just a few
days-could reduce the harvest
measurably, perhaps to 4 million
tons. Such a development would
necessitate unusually high maize
imports and reduce reserves available
for food assistance.
? Output dropped about 60 percent
from the average during previous
El Nino events. In 1991-92 extensive
emergency food relief efforts were
required for subsistence farmers in
South Africa and elsewhere. in southern
Africa; aid was drawn from reserves
built up in previous years of surplus.
? A production drop to 4 million tons
would force.Pretoria to import as much
as 2.5 million tons of maize to meet
domestic demand and rebuild stocks, at
a cost of roughly $375 million. South
Africa would be unable to provide food
assistance from its own maize stocks to
other southern African countries that
have traditionally relied on food
imports from South Africa.
In addition, drought between now
and June would sharply reduce next
season's wheat area, particularly in the
Free State, and push up domestic wheat
prices
Given government stocks of 1.1 million
tons, Pretoria would be able to meet the
7.6 million-ton domestic consumption
requirement and modest export demand
should it realize a harvest of 6.8 million
tons.
Localized drought last November and
a shift to more drought-resistant crops,
such as sorghum and sunflower, have
reduced the area planted with maize
by about 15 percent from last year,
according to the government. The
primary reduction is in yellow
maize-used mostly as animal
feed-because farmers anticipate
higher prices for white maize in the
event of drought.
 ? With continued favorable weather,
the unusually high percentage of white
maize plantings suggests a surplus
production of as much as 500,000 tons.
We estimate that, even if drought should
still occur, reduced maize production will
not lead to famine, although localized food
shortages are possible in Mozambique,
Malawi, and Zambia. Widespread rains last
December and cool early January 1998
temperatures have boosted crop yield
prospects, and overall food reserves in
southern Africa are much greater than during
the 1991-92 El Nino-related drought.
 ~~
 N O N
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