THE ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK IN RUSSIA

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
0005284819
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
36
Document Creation Date: 
June 24, 2015
Document Release Date: 
May 27, 2011
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
F-2008-00831
Publication Date: 
January 1, 1999
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon DOC_0005284819.pdf1.9 MB
Body: 
cI e All" AC]111~ . =" ~ C ] ~ N,IC DCI ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER 0I.LV . AssesLWgLI* nce ,g Community ~It7?C7~~OOCSC:3 rC70 co C7 The Environmental Outlook in Russia a APPROVED FOR RELEASEL DATE: 17-May-2011 C]C:)cn( (= ICA 98-08 January 1999 0 74 0 The Environmental Outlook in Russia This paper was produced by the National Intelli- gence Counci4 John C. Gannon, Chairman, and the DCI Environmental Center, Terrance J. Flannery, Director. It was prepared under the auspices of David F. Gordon, National Intelligence Officer for Economics and Global Issues, Lawrence K. Gershwin, National Intelligence Officer for Science and Technology, and George Kolt, National Intelli- gence Officer for Russia and Eurasia. ICA 98-08 January 1999 wy>': r: u. r:_ ..'{y:. `?i^`?.~s?. ~ , 4 ~.~.lp;?: .. ~ _. ~ _ ? Nuclear waste and chemical munitions contamination is so extensive and costly to reverse that remediation efforts are likely to continue to be lim- ited largely to merely fencing off affected areas. Environmental problems are harming both the health of Russia's citizens and the economy: ? US, Russian, and World Bank studies link an increase in respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses and developmental problems among children in several Russian cities in part to environmental factors. A 1996 joint US- Russian Government study found that one-quarter of kindergarten pupils in one city had lead concentrations above the threshold at which intelli- gence is impaired, while a US Government study noted a rise in the inci- dence of waterborne diseases and environmentally related birth defects. A Russian Government report cited air pollution as a contributing factor to 17 percent of childhood and 10 percent of adult illnesses. ? Pollution is adding to budgetary strains, reducing labor productivity through illness and absenteeism, and damaging natural resources. It also is deterring some domestic and foreign investors concerned about cleanup and liability issues. A team of Russian experts has pegged over- all economic losses from environmental degradation at 10 to 12 percent of GDP-roughly similar to estimated losses in East European countries and substantially higher than estimates of 1 to 2 percent in developed countries. Russia's environmental problems also pose substantial threats to other regions and are likely to continue to do so during the next decade: ? Russia is a polluter of adjacent seas, dumping industrial and municipal wastes, chemical munitions, and, until the mid-1990s, solid and liquid radioactive wastes. ? It is likely to continue to be a major producer and exporter of illicit ozone-depleting substances because of widespread black-market activity and also will remain a major emitter of carbon dioxide. Although Russian Government officials decry the economic and social costs of environmental degradation, they lack the commitment, resources, and organizational capacity to address environmental problems: ? Policymakers are focusing on stopping Russia's economic deterioration and stabilizing the country's financial markets, not on the environmental impact of their actions. Spending on the environment was less than 0.5 percent of total federal budget spending, or about $480 million in 1997-a significant drop from the modest levels of the late Soviet period. Spending on drinking water quality, for example, was down 90 percent from levels of the 1980s. ? Russia has a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework in the envi- ronmental area, but government institutions responsible for environmen- tal protection lack the authority and capability to enforce legislation. ? A continued Russian tendency to treat certain nuclear waste and chemical weapons information as a state secret will complicate Western cleanup assistance programs. The Russian Government recently made broad new categories of environment-related information subject to secret classifica- tion in response to revelations about environmental problems at Russian military bases by former military officers. ? Environmental activism has been on the wane since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Despite growing concerns about environmentally related health problems, the Russian public is preoccupied with economic sur- vival and accords much less priority to environmental issues. Russia is widely expected to be the major financial beneficiary of the car- bon-trading scheme associated with the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Frame- work Convention on Climate Change, mainly because the sharp decline in Russian economic activity has reduced emissions nearly 30 percent below the target level Russia set for the period 2008-12. Under the Protocol, countries exceeding their targeted cuts will be able to sell emission-reduc- tion credits to those unable to meet their targets: ? Even if a future sustained economic recovery increases emissions, Russian officials are convinced that the extensive boreal forest covering ~f i~3.' ? .YJ~'"" a. ,~..S1.J.~'i t?. ?'~' ~''? ~a~a %f v.i`? .._t ":. r. :._-. ... - ?.. iFil. .. .. .:f~^J::>:^J~?4jt :~:e...':~~`. I"~YXh.'.: lit r ,'r?;. :M~ C?Vi`.f..: i~ti5. .f .. Of most of the country will act as a major carbon absorber that will earn them substantial revenues well beyond the 2008-12 period if effectively managed. ? According to a MEDEA study sponsored by the National Intelligence Council, however, current carbon flow models contain significant uncer- tainties, and it is not clear whether Russia's boreal forest is a net absorber or emitter of atmospheric carbon.' Even minor improvements in Russia's environment during the next few years will require continued international pressure, aid, management exper- tise, and foreign investment to compensate for Russian shortcomings, but any government shift toward greater state control of the economy to deal with the ongoing economic crisis would jeopardize at least some of this assistance: ? A number of international institutions and environmental nongovernmen- tal organizations (NGOs) are providing Russia with substantial aid and technical training, as well as assistance on policy priorities, reform, and institution-building. ? Although Russia's latest economic crisis has slowed foreign investment considerably, multinational corporations that have invested in Russia generally have introduced new and more efficient equipment and employ more environmentally friendly practices than Russian firms. The outlook for more sustained environmental progress over the long term will depend less on foreign assistance and more on whether Russian lead- ers can muster the courage and skill to implement reforms leading to sound economic growth, greater governmental accountability, and increased public political involvement: ? If Moscow can rein in its ongoing financial crisis and implement sound fiscal, monetary, and corporate governance policies, investors will even- tually return to Russia and help set the stage for sustained economic growth that, in turn, would increase government and private-sector capacity and willingness to address environmental concerns. ' MEDEA is a group of about 40 US environmental and global change scientists. It is an outgrowth of a CIA-sponsored Environmental Task Force formed in 1992 to use classified systems to examine key environmental questions. ? A higher living standard, along with changes in Russian political culture that increase government responsiveness and reduce public apathy, would gradually strengthen public support for a more robust environmental agenda as it has in more developed countries. It would also boost the influence of environmental NGOs on government and private-sector environmental policies. Although at least some of these positive indicators may begin to appear near the end of our 10-year time frame, it will probably take decades for Russians to garner the will and the wherewithal to deal with their environ- mental problems, especially if neo-Communist or nationalist forces come to power and pursue decidedly xenophobic and antireformist policies. . .. _,.`:f:'~{S ''z~ ,. ,-..~..~4b5.. .. .:.. .., ..:. ., :k i~.:t:.:~.~:5%~?'y`'Nid'?%1~'.z r ~+. ~ t. ?' ~.? ';'?..,n '..Nro.._.. ;{: 1; 1. _: , ~a ~t::'.. '~.' , _ .. Figure 1 Key Environmental Problem Areas in Russia Romania 1 Moldov Ukraine y Saudi .,~ Arabia i f, YR .rcn,sna Xaiufrkiya r ton Che J insk z7Q Western, 0 4 IYest Siberian Urar OO~iregiogas daslria I region mne xn, Kazakhstan JAM 4Sasnoyarsk Barkar .egron' Lake Baikal 800 Ivometco 800M 0$ Bering Sea Critically degraded area ? Heavily polluted water body ti Heavily polluted river ? High levels of acid rain 9 Radioactive waste dumping site A Degraded forest area 1;1 Plutonium production plant Discussion Scope of Environmental Challenges Russian Government officials candidly acknowledge that the country has many envi- ronmental problems, often using words such as "catastrophe" and "crisis" to describe the scale of the challenge. Some of the problems are primarily a legacy of Russia's Soviet past. Among the factors most responsible for environmental destruction: ? Soviet planners strongly emphasized the development of heavy industries over other sectors of the economy, and Russia is now burdened with a large stock of aged, ineffi- cient, and highly polluting plant and equip- ment, the bulk of which requires repair or replacement. ? Soviet production criteria led to inefficient use of Russia's abundant natural resources and energy, which were treated as free or heavily subsidized goods. This encouraged waste. ? The priority of defense and the security sur- rounding defense industries and military installations allowed authorities to be extraor- dinarily reckless in their treatment of the environment including simply dumping radioactive and other hazardous wastes onto nearby land and in waterways. ? The collectivization of agriculture destroyed individual responsibility for the land. Fever- ish campaigns to "solve the food problem" led to the overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the depletion of arable land, and the cultivation of vast areas of marginal and semiarid lands easily damaged by intensive agriculture. ? Environmental standards, although often set high, were seldom enforced. Departments charged with protecting natural resources were often subordinate to ministries whose main goal was increasing production. Other Russian environmental problems are more closely associated with the country's political and economic transition during the 1990s, particularly its halting move from a command to a free market economy: ? Industrial output has plummeted during the 1990s, but pollution from air and wastewater emissions has not declined as fast. Firms rou- tinely underreport their emissions and cut capital investment, maintenance, and the quality of fuel they use to trim costs (see fig- ures 2, 3, and 4). Such cuts have caused the environmental performance of facilities to deteriorate, and the frequency of industrial accidents that cause environmental damage to increase. Oilspills and leaking oil pipelines, for example, are commonplace. ? The competitive sectors of the new Russian economy tend to be oriented toward produc- tion of commodities that are energy, resource, and thus pollution intensive. During the 1990s, oil, gas, timber, and metals have accounted for about 70 percent of Russia's reported export revenue, and they will con- tinue to comprise the bulk of Russian exports. ? Russia also must confront many of the envi- ronmental problems associated with the con- sumerism and unchecked development associated with free market systems, such as burgeoning solid waste streams from pack- aged goods, traffic congestion, urban sprawl, and a rush by private firms to exploit natural resources. Water Russia's leading environmental concern is water pollution. Municipalities are the main source of pollution, followed by industry and agriculture. Russian and foreign experts esti- mate that less than one-half of Russia's popula- tion has access to safe drinking water. Sixty- nine percent of the nation's wastewater treat- ment systems lack sufficient capacity. Only 13 percent of reported wastewater flows were treated to meet Russia's relatively high-quality water standards in 1996, the latest.period for which we have reporting. According to the Russian Government, "practically all" of the water courses in the Volga watershed-an area that covers two-thirds of European Russia-do not meet Russian standards. Russia's three military plutonium production sites-Chelyabinsk-65 (often referred to as Mayak) in the southern Urals region, and Tomsk-7 and Krasnoyarsk-26 in southwestern Siberia have caused extensive contamination of Russian waterways: ? Highly radioactive waste from Chelyabinsk was dumped into a nearby river system from 1948 to 1951 and has migrated over 1,500 kilometers to the Arctic Ocean. Other waste is stored in open ponds at Chelyabinsk and is seeping into a nearby river. ? At Tomsk and Krasnoyarsk, liquid radio- active waste injected into the sandy layers beneath the sites is migrating slowly. If Rus- sia does not maintain its long-term monitor- ing program, the waste could seep into local and regional water supplies without adequate time to protect against impacts to human health and prevent degradation of the environment. Water pollution from municipal sources is likely to increase during the next decade as independent households and the services sector place additional burdens on municipal sewage systems. When industrial production recovers, wastewater discharges also will reverse their downward trend. Meanwhile, funding short- ages will constrain operations, maintenance, and new investment in drinking water, sewer- age, and wastewater treatment systems. They also will limit any efforts to deal with nuclear contamination of waterways and drinking water supplies. Air Poor air quality is almost as serious a problem as water pollution. In 1996 over 200 cities in Russia often exceeded the levels prescribed by Russian health standards for annual concentra- tions of at least one pollutant, according to a Russian Government report. Eight cities exceeded health standards for three or more pollutants, and they did so by at least a factor of 10. In comparison, according to the US Envi- ronmental Protection Agency, air pollution lev- els in the Los Angeles area, which has the Figure 2 Sources of Russian Water Pollution by Volume of Effluent 110 Sewage treatment plants 100 90 80 Industrial discharges 70 60 Industrial output Index: 1991=100 Latest available information. Source: Russian Committee for Environmental Protection. worst overall air quality in the United States, rarely exceed US standards-which are similar to Russia's-by a factor of more than 1.5. Although industries continue to pollute the air, emissions from cars and trucks-lead, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides-cause the majority of air pollution. In Moscow, for exam- ple, 87 percent of air pollution is attributable to vehicle emissions. Air quality is likely to worsen as the number of vehicles-many of which are aging and lack adequate pollution controls-increases. From 1991 to 1997, car registrations increased nationwide by 176 percent. The number of cars in Moscow during the same period jumped 250 percent to 2 million. Fuel quality will add to the problem-only half the gasoline produced in Russia is unleaded and, in heavily congested `.. {. ~~. .? r~.'..~~... ~.1.\..i_ I.r... `.>,:.?,,.: .- .. .{ .iy-,L'J'C~:.) _.._.~i~-....gin 1_,tc~x, ;, .. .,,,'r,.,..x