NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005301352
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00571
• Publication Date: July 12, 1990

I I 1-1
Ll "") r
MIN
lotto (tA1).c....
Director of Central Intelligame
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE
DAILY
Thursday, 12 July 1990
APPROVED FOR
RELEASED DATE:
09-01-2009
--"nqrSeefet---
CPAS N1D 90-161JX
12 July 1990
?
III
)O -7 -7 I-I
Contents
USSR: Congress Endorses Gorbachev's Choice as Deputy
1
Nicaragua: Chamorro Caught in Middle
2
Notes USSR: Miners Hold One-Day Warning Strikes
6
: Tightening Grip on Estonian Enterprises
Algeria: President Distancing Government From Party
10
South Korea: Assembly Session Chaotic
France: Defense Minister Proposes Force Cuts
In Brief
14
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l2Juk 1990
USSR
Gorbachev's
Gorbachev's Right-Hand Man
As the CPSU's second most powerful official, Ivashko will
head the Secretariat and oversee daily operations of the
party. Ivashko is considered a centrist. He became known for
his political acumen during his tenure as Ukrainian party
first secretary (September 1989?June 1990). Ivashko
successfully juggled nationalist demands in his native
republic with Moscow's concerns about separatism and
gained his reputation as someone willing to listen to differing
opinions?a trait that probably appealed to Gorbachev and
others in the leadership.
Ivashko's lack of a central power base?he has spent his
entire career in the Ukraine?was certainly an added factor
in Gorbachev's mind. Gorbachev may also be banking on
Ivashko's presence in the deputy's post to mollify nationalists
in the Ukraine.
32 54 2-20
On -
12 July 1990
It it s
s 14_1
USSR: Congress Endorses Gorbachev's Choice as Deputy
The selection of Vladimir Ivashko over Politburo hardliner Yegor
Ligachev as the party's first Deputy General Secretary appears to be
a major gain for Gorbachev; the proof will come when the independent
Ivashko takes the reins of the powerful party apparatus.
In remarks opening the nominating process yesterday, Gorbachev
stressed that the deputy should be someone who shares his views; he
warned the delegates against electing someone who might split the
party. In endorsing Ivashko, he touted the Ukrainian moderate's
willingness to cooperate with nonparty groups pursuing perestroyka
and his potential as a unifying force. Gorbachev announced without
comment that Ligachev had also been nominated; a little-known
delegate from Leningrad put his own name forward as a third
candidate. In a brief nomination speech, Ivashko reiterated his
support for Gorbachev's brand of reform.
Following Ligachev's remarks, Gorbachev intervened from the chair
to cite rules that candidates could appear on the ballot only if there
were no objections to them. Reformists rushed to the microphones
to object to Ligachev's candidacy and forced a vote that eliminated
him from the ballot. But one traditionalist successfully challenged
Gorbachev's interpretation of the rule book, and the delegates
restored Ligachev's name to the ballot. Nonetheless, lvashko
reportedly won overwhelmingly Lizachey today has congratulated
Ivashko on his victory.
Comment: Gorbachev presumably would have preferred a party
official with stronger reformist credentials as his second in command,
but the traditionalists' show of strength at the congress apparently
forced him to choose a centrist candidate. Ivashko's win keeps this
powerful post out of traditionalist hands and may help Gorbachev
bridge the gap between the right and the left wings of the party.
Nonetheless Gorbachev and Ivashko may themselves differ over
policy; Ivashko has been reluctant about market reforms and took
the lead in calling for a purge of the Democratic Platform group
from the party last spring.
To secure Ivashko's election, Gorbachev may have exploited concern
among traditionalists about the potentially divisive effects of
choosing Ligachev. He may also have cut a deal with swing voters by
agreeing not to contest moving some traditionalists into the Politburo
and Secretariat over the next two days.
12 July 1990
SI
NICARAGUA: Chamorro Caught in Middle
Strike leaders apparently are ready to negotiate a settlement with
President Chamorro, whose coalition is increasingly divided.
Press reports indicate the Sandinista National Labor Front is calling
for a resumption of talks with the government and has instructed
striking workers to end disruptive activities_ Chamorro yesterday said
talks could resume as early as today if the violence has ceased. The
streets of Mana ua were returning to normal yesterday,
although the transmitter of a progovernment radio
station was estroyed.
Chamorro earlier this week rejected a
proposal to form a committee of representatives from the coalition's
14 parties, the private sector, and the free trade unions to help her
make policy. Progovernmcnt hardliners, impatient with the
halfhearted efforts of the Sandinista-dominated police and military
to end the strike, claim to have created a "national salvation brigade"
to confront the Sandinistas. The Sandinista radio station claims
government officials are forming death squads.
Comment: Lacking the means to enforce her will, the President has
been unable to crack down on the strikers and reluctant to remove
Sandinista commanders in the military and the police. The waning
of the strike suggests Chamorro may have signaled her willingness to
make additional concessions, such as retaining much of the bloated
public work force and reevaluating plans to sell state enterprises.
If the President abandons key provisions of her economic program to
placate the strikers, her government's problems will multiply. Private-
sector and conservative political leaders arc certain to criticize any
compromise. Key officials might resign, and foreign donors are likely
to be less willing to give promised aid. Such developments would
make Chamorro seek further Sandinista cooperation in governing.
In announcing formation of the "brigade," hardliners may simply
be giving a title to the numerous progovernment groups already
confronting Sandinista strikers in the streets.
12 July 1990
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USSR: Miners Hold One-Day Warning Strikes
Tens of thousands of Soviet miners in the USSR's four major coal-
producing regions and other areas yesterday staged one-day strikes
and demonstrations demanding that the Ryzhkov government resign
and that Communist Party and official Soviet trade union property
be nationalized. Some sympathetic farm, factory, and transportation
workers in affected regions stopped work in support of the miners.
Despite the large turnout, Gorbachev claimed the strike involved
only a few thousand miners influenced by outside agitators.
Comment: The strikes demonstrated the miners' open, growing
hostility toward the Communist Party and the central government.
Their decision to strike and their ever-more-political demands stem
from Moscow's inability to address their economic demands. The
strikes highlight the miners' growing organizational capabilities,
including the ability to organize a strike that does not inflict major
damage on the economy. The significant number of reported
sympathy strikes demonstrates broad public anger. Gorbachev's
allusion to outside agitators is apparently a reference to liberal
government officials?perhaps even Yertsin--who apparently
encouraged the miners to take an anti-CPSU stand.
USSR: Tightening Grip on Estonian Enterprises
A USSR Council of Ministers decree issued on 2 July has merged
all centrally managed enterprises in Estonia except the railroad into
an "independent" interministerial association. The decree,
removes the enterprises from ministerial
subordination but stipulates that the head of the association is to
be approved by the USSR Council of Ministers and that the
association's financial transactions with Moscow, payments to the
union budget, and supply allocations are to be arranged directly
with central agencies. The decree also invites Estonian-managed
enterprises to join the association. An Estonian government
resolution, condemns the move as
creating "a state within a state completely divorced from Estonia's
economy."
Comment: The creation of this association is an evident ploy
by Moscow to isolate centrally managed enterprises further from
Estonian authority. The move clothes a power grab by Moscow in the
garb of economic reform?releasing enterprises from the tutelage of
parent ministries. Moscow may use similar tactics in other republics
to forestall local authorities from gaining control over their economic
resources. These tactics run counter to Moscow's professed interest in
negotiating greater autonomy for the republics and developing a
treaty of the union acceptable to them.
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ALGERIA: President Distancing Government From Party
The ruling National Liberation Front concluded a tempestuous
Central Committee meeting yesterday by electing a Politburo that, for
the first time, includes no representative of the government. The
Prime Minister, Mouloud Hamrouche, and members of his cabinet
resigned from the Politburo the day before. The new 13-member
Politburo contains five new members. Former Politburo members
will retain their seats in the Central Committee. President Bendjedid
will probably continue formally to head the Front as he has since
1979.
Comment: Unable to mold the recalcitrant Front into a "party of
reform," Bendjedid has been distancing himself from it for several
months. He took advantage of the party's rout in recent local
elections to disassociate his government further from the widely
discredited institution. Bendjedid probably hopes to develop a
coalition of centrist, democratic parties as a vehicle for economic and
political reform and as a counterweight to his country's burgeoning
Islamic movement. While Bendjedid looks for such vehicles beyond
the ruling party to carry his reform message. however, Islamist
demands for powersharing and for early legislative elections will
continue to build.
10 12 July 1990
SOUTH KOREA: Assembly Session Chaotic
The opposition is using aggressive tactics in the National Assembly
to counter the ruling party's huge majority, making for a rancorous
session that is likely to increase public frustration with both sides.
Yesterday, opposition lawmakers assaulted a ruling-party committee
chairman who passed a military reorganization bill without debate.
On Saturday an opposition lawmaker injured a ruling-party member
who introduced a bill to strengthen government control of the state
broadcasting company. Opposition leader Kim Dae Jung is
threatening to block these bills forcibly and is demanding the
Assembly pass enabling legislation for local government elections
this year.
Comment: Kim, taking the risk that the opposition's aggressive
tactics will draw public ire, may be trying to force the ruling camp
to use its three-to-one majority to play on public concern that it is
unresponsive and undemocratic. Commentators sharply criticized the
ruling party in March when it tried strong-arm tactics to ram through
the military reorganization bill. The ruling party may use the chaos
in the Assembly, however, as an excuse to delay indefinitely local
government elections, in which it anticipates losing ground to the
opposition,
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12 July 1990
?17311-Srere+-
FRANCE: Defense Minister Proposes Force Cuts
Defense Minister Chevenement has publicly proposed an armed
forces personnel cut of 35,000 by the mid-1990s as part of an ongoing
military reorganization. Under his proposal, the Army would lose two
of its six armored divisions, the Navy would grow slightly, and the
nuclear forces would remain untouched,
Chevenement refused to consider the $1.2 billion cut in the
e ense budget advocated by Finance Minister Beregovoy.
Comment: Chevenement almost certainly was forced to propose these
reductions by the rapid political changes in Europe, the challenges to
defense spending in the ruling Socialist Party, and the Finance
Minister's tight budgetary policy. Previously, Chevenement has
argued that French defense forces were at the minimum necessary to
maintain security, and he has been unwilling to consider the major
cuts suggested at the CFE talks. Chevenement's announcement
probably was timed to show his Ministry is trying to economize and
to answer growing pressure for troop withdrawals from West
Germany. He will be hard pressed to prevent cuts in defense spending
as the government prepares its budget for next year. Over the next
several years, further cuts in the Army and possibly the Air Force are
likely as Paris attempts to fund its nuclear-modernization programs
and maintain forces for out-of-area operations.
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In Brief
Africa
? Liberian Government, rebel forces continued to clash in
Monrovia's suburbs yesterday; capital quiet ... Taylor's forces
also skirmishing with rival rebel faction ... his delegates arrived
in Sierra Leone for peace talks yesterday.
Americas
East Asia
?Seven more Cubans evaded police guards, entered Czechoslovak
Embassy in Havana yesterday, raising total to 14 ... Castro
refusing to negotiate with Prague, demanding asylees surrender
or remain indefinitely at mission.
? Press says far-leftist group in Chile threatening to kill Senate
president, other congressmen ... first such threat against new
civilian government ... if carried out, A lwin administration
might seek antiterrorist help from Army.
? Philippine press reports Aquino government may halve cabinet
posts... speculating Local Government Secretary Santos will
replace Defense Secretary Ramos... military reportedly would
resent Santos, increasing potential for coup attempt.
14 12 July 1990
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