NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005301367
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00571
• Publication Date: June 12, 1990

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Contents
Israel: Shamir's New Government
1
Notes USSR
Kirghizis Try Conciliation
3
Burma: Japan Cautious on Aid
5
Bulgaria: Opposition Protesting Communists' Victory
6
In Brief
7
Special Analyses Peru: Fujimori's Challenges in Consolidating Power
"TinrSeefat-
12 June 1990
Israel's New Cabinet
Likud
Yitzhak Shamir
David Levi
Moshe Nissim
Moshe Arcits
Yitzhak Modai a
Ariel Sharon
Dan Meridor
Ehud Olmert
David Magen
Moshe ICatzav
Roni Milo
Gideon Patt
Prime Minister Minister of Labor and Social
Welfare, Minister of Ecology and Environmental
Protection
Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Industry and
Commerce
Minister of Defense
Minister of Finance
Minister of Construction and Housing
Minister of Justice
Minister of Health
Minister of Economy and Planning
Minister of Transport
Minister of Police
Minister of Tourism
SIMS
Arye Der'i
Rafael Pinhasi
Yitzhak Peretz
Minister of Interior
Minister of Communications
Minister of Immigrant Absorption
National Religious
Zevulun Hammer
Avner Shaki
Party
Minister of Education and Culture
Minister of Religious Affairs
Tzonset
Rafael Eitan
Minister of Agriculture
Tehiya
Yuval Neeman
Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Science and
Development
a Movement to Advance the Zionist Idea (Likud affiliate)
"T?trigoszet_
12 June 1990
ISRAEL: Shamir's New Government
Prime Minister Shamir's new rightwing-religious coalition government
. .
may have enou h ohesion t
1992.
1;11 I
In sewing up 62 of 120 Knesset votes yesterday, Shamir's coalition
got support from one Labor party defector and all the religious and
rightwing parties except the religious faction Agudat Yisrael. He has
reserved the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare for Agudat Yisrael
to try to tempt it into the government. The religious party Degel
HaTorah and the rightwing Moledet faction supported Shamir
without joining the government.
Shamir, in presenting the government, pledged to move forward on
the Arab-Israeli peace process but said Israel would not enter direct
or indirect negotiations with the PLO. The new government's
guidelines call for more Jewish settlements in the occupied territories
and, to satisfy a rightwing coalition partner, consideration of electoral
reforms within three months. They also call for the passage of new
religious legislation, including a ban on the sale of pork.
Comment: Despite his pledge to advance the peace process; Shamir is
not likely to engage in an Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. His government
undoubtedly will start settlements in the occupied territories and
probably will respond harshly to attacks on Israel by the PLO or other
Palestinian groups.
Although Shamir's new government might be toppled by internal
legislative battles, it has significant ideological cohesion and may
survive until the end of its term. Agudat Yisrael's entry into the
coalition would stren then Shamir's abilit to weather in
disagreements.
I-1 I ?I I ?1
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USSR: Kirghizis Try Conciliation
The Osh security commander claims to have nearly full control of
his region. Frunze, the republic capital, remains calm, and Kirghiz
authorities yesterday were opening a conciliation campaign. A
Moscow party official was coordinating activities of a commission
to restore order and seek the causes of the ethnic violence. Since
republic Premier Dzhumgulov and Uzbek Premier Mirsaidov met on
Saturday in Osh, joint Kirghizi-Uzbek appeals for peace have been
issued by prestigious cultural figures and local leaders.
Comment: Maintaining stability in the impoverished and ethnically
mixed Fergana Valley probably will require a prolonged period of
heightened security. A main challenge to official interrepublic
cooperation will be protecting the 500,000 Uzbeks in Kirghiziya's
Osh Oblast and the 70,000 Kirghizis in Uzbekistan's Andizhan
Oblast to keep them from becoming refugees in the already
overcrowded region.
3
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OD
BURMA: Japan Cautious on Aid
Tokyo is unlikely to give Rangoon large-scale aid until the military
regime undertakes serious economic reform and transfers power to
a civilian government,
Tokyo is also requiring Burma to pay debt arrears of some
$140 million. Japan is Burma's largest bilateral donor; in 1983
Ja anese-funded programs totaled $260 million.
Tokyo may be willing to head an international donors group
to help Rangoon use foreign aid more effectively.
Comment: The military regime probably hoped that last month's
National Assembly election would encourage Tokyo to resume its full
aid program quickly. Burma critically needs foreign aid to revive the
economy, and Tokyo's new conditions may help persuade the regime
to take steps to transfer power to the opposition National League for
Democracy. The IMF and the World Bank, which have also insisted
that Burma demonstrate a commitment to economic reform before
they begin new projects, probably would join an international aid
group
5
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12 June 1990
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BULGARIA: Opposition Protesting Communists' Victory
More than 100,000 people demonstrated yesterday against the
projected election victory of the Bulgarian Socialist Party.
Announcement of official results has been postponed until today to
give investigators time to look into allegations of electoral fraud.
Leaders of the Union of Democratic Forces, the main opposition
coalition, however, say they will not demand a new election unless
more serious violations are uncovered. Several UDF leaders have
repeated past pledges not to join the BSP in coalition and to stay
united in opposition.
Comment: More opposition demonstrations are likely as UDF leaders
try to stir up support for party candidates in runoff races on Sunday,
but serious violence is not likely. The intimidation and fraud that
occurred do not appear to have been key to the BSP victory. If UDF
It-aders stand firm against joining thc Communists in a coalition, the
BSP may be forced into an early election, possibly for failure to get
the needed two-thirds support of the Assembly to pass a new
constitution.
6 12 June 1990
0i
"TrIrStTlet--
12 June 1990
I, I
In Brief
Middle East
USSR
East Asia
Europe
? Two Iranian Navy ships making highly publicized four-day visit to
Oman ... first such visit to another Persian Gulf country since
Iranian revolution ... highlights warming ties between Tehran,
Muscat.
?Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Petrovskiy in Iraq for talks on
Iran-Iraq conflict, regional issues visited Iran last month.. .
probably pushing for Iran-Iraq peace talks in Moscow.
?Three Baltic presidents to see President Gorbachev today, his first
meeting with President Landsbergis ... probably will again urge
looser federation on them... Lithuanian Premier Prunskiene will
meet today with Soviet Premier Ryzhkov
? Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff De Villa reportedly
resigning to care for terminally ill wife . . . Vice Chief of Staff
Biazon, Army chief Flores likely replacements . . . both helped put
down attempted coup last December
?Taiwan, Vietnamese entities signed aviation, visa, commercial
agreements last week . direct trade, established last August,
worth $41 million last year.. . Taiwan exports processing
machinery, electronics, Vietnam rattan, lumber.
? EC, Romania trade pact initialed Sunday eases trade restrictions
on Romanian goods... only Albania in region lacks such accord
EC will begin negotiating association agreements with East
Europeans later this year.
continued
-rtrirSeer.at?_
7 12 June 1990
Americas
? Newfoundland Premier Wells will take Canada's Meech Lake
accord to provincial legislature, not more risky referendum .. .
will not impose party discipline . .. passage requires six of his
31 Liberals to vote with 21 Conservatives.
South Asia
? Tamil militants killed 14 Sri Lankan soldiers, overran seven police
stations yesterday. ... bloodiest confrontation since talks began last
year . .. Colombo not likely to suspend negotiations, but if
violence escalates military will retaliate.
Southeast Asia
? Press reports several senior Cambodian officials arrested for
forming opposition party. ... high-level corruption, popular
dissatisfaction rumored growing .. . unclear if evidence of
factionalism will weaken regime in peace talks.
8 12 June 1990
OD - -
12 June 1990
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?
Special Analysis
PERU: Fujimori's Challenges in Consolidating Power
Despite his apparent landslide victory in Sunday's presidential runoff
Alberto Fujimori will have a fragile hold on power as he tries to placate
disgruntled citizens, a splintered legislature. and the finery military.
Unperturbed by criticism of his vague policy statements, Fujimori
said he will detail his plans only after the inauguration on 28 July.
Nonetheless, he underlined his intent to reintegrate Peru in the
international community, to pay the foreign debt, and to strengthen
relations with other nations of the Pacific rim. Hinting that his ethnic
Japanese heritage would attract increased aid from Tokyo, Fujimori
said he wants to tkavei there this month. A Japanese Government
spokesman, however, re7ated that Fuiimori's victory will not
influence the level of aid.
Fujimori criticized Lima's antidrug efforts for emphasizing
"repressive" enforcement measures and implied that coca growers
must be offered economic incentives to switch to legitimate crops.
He did not rule out acceptin forei n milita aid but o os s h
presence of foreign troops.
II
During the campaign, Fujimori failed to specify alternatives to his
opponent's proposed economic shock program, which he repeatedly
attacked; his electoral showing thus may have been largely an
anti?Vargas Llosa vote. His mandate could crumble quickly if public
expectations for a quick, nainless economic turnaround 20 unmet
Fujimori may fare little better in the fragmented legislature. His
centrist coalition probably can draw congressional support from the
right and the left. But the new government may run afoul of Vargas
Llosa's center-right coalition, which holds a plurality in both houses,
if it proposes legislation reminiscent of the economic gradualism of
President Garcia's discredited center-left party. Moreover, Garcia's
party, which discreetly backed Fujimori in the runoff campaign,
probably would quickly join Fujimori's critics at the first hint of
failure.
-"Irlirjeeret--
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