CHINA: OIL DEMAND SET TO RESUME GROWTH

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005304580
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 10, 2009
• Case Number: F-2008-01057
• Publication Date: February 8, 2002

y 2002
Flat in 2001 Outlook to 2010 (C//NF) 8 February
China's total apparent oil consumption for last year
remained at 2000 levels-which saw a jump of
9.1 percent from 1999. 1 Apparent consumption was
4.6 million barrels a day (b/d) last year, according to
official Chinese statistics and press reports (see
graphic on page 2).
Barring a protracted economic slowdown, China's
oil requirements will increase over the long term.
According to US Energy Information Administration
(EIA) and CIA projections, China will consume
6.7 to 7.5 million b/d in 2010, nearly 50 percent
higher than year 2000 consumption.
? The lack of growth was mostly due to sharply
higher crude oil imports in 2000 that led to an
overhang in refined product stocks in 2001.
? Net crude and product imports last year were about
1.3 million b/d according to official Chinese
statistics. Domestic oil production was about
3.3 million b/d, according to press reports
China's total apparent oil consumption this year could
rise by 3.3 percent.
? The higher oil use will be driven by economic
growth. Chinese Government and foreign private-
sector analysts expect China's real GDP growth in
2002 will be slightly above 7 percent, similar to
2001.
80 percent of China's
total apparent oil consumption growth this year will
be from higher imports.
? CIA's baseline projection of 7.5 million b/d in
201 0-the same as EIA high economic growth
case-assumes annual GDP growth of 7.1 percent
and an oil elasticity of 0.7.
? A rapidly expanding transportation sector will
account for most of the consumption increase,
according to the EIA.
China will become more dependent on imported
oil-especially from the Persian Gulf and West
Africa-because prospects for a sustained,
substantial output boost from its mature domestic oil
sector appear poor.
? Persian Gulf and West Africa oil last year
accounted for 56 percent and 22 percent,
respectively, of China's 1.15 million b/d of gross
crude oil imports, according to official Chinese
statistics.
? China's oil production will remain stagnant or
could decrease by 2010 as aging fields continue to
decline, according to Chinese and Western press,
OppRnVFnpnR
1 Total apparent consumption is production plus net
imports of crude oil and refined product, excluding
stocks.
RELEASE^DATE:
04-Sep-2009
seNFIeewTM
 China: Oil Demand Set to Resume Growth 8February 2002
Figure I
China: Oil Coneumption,1995 201
` ~ pmma~artd
r CIA " US Energy
?'~ Information
Administration
Total apparent (EIA)
1995 99 97 99 99 2000, 01 08 10
I Note stange!n safe
EIA projectiotls.
Totat consumption is production plus net imports
.of crude oil and refined product, excluding stocks.
Sources: Press, official Chinese statistics, MA rpference rase-
Production.
2
eeNFln INTIAI