SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005445194
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2010
• Case Number: F-2009-00733
• Publication Date: September 29, 2000

APPROVED FOR RELEASE[] DATE:
06-23-2010
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Friday, 29 September 2000
National Security Information
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Reproduction of this Document Prohibited
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29 September 2000
 Regional Notes
FRY: Milosevic Hanging On by a Thread
Analytic Perspective .
The Serbian opposition has exercised bold and effective leadership and
seems determined to force President Milosevic to recognize opposition
leader Kostunica's first-round victory. More demonstrations will be
necessary to force Milosevic from power, however, and the opposition
will have to move to more confrontational tactics.
- Protesters' earlier concern about police violence seems to be
ebbing, which will embolden demonstrators.
- Democratic Party leader Djindjic has given the electoral
commission until today to justify its call for a second round or
face "different measures of pressure," according to press reports.
Milosevic has lost his grip on the Army, and the best he can hope for is its
continued neutrality. Police loyalties are less clear, but Milosevic probably
could count on enough forces to protect government buildings from
demonstrators, at least in Belgrade.
- He may not be able to muster sufficient police support to mount
a violent crackdown. A state of emergenc , if contested, could
not be enforced without Army backing.
Governing Coalition Cracking
Serbian Radical Party leader Seselj's public recognition of Kostunica's
victory demonstrates the fracturing of Milosevic's ruling coalition. Seselj
and Serbian Renewal Movement leader Draskovic may try to wrest control
of the Serbian Government from Milosevic's crony, Prime Minister
Marjanovic, through a confidence vote in the Serbian legislature, where
their two parties hold a narrow majority.
- At the federal level, Milosevic is trying to cobble together a new
coalition by bringing in the Montenegro-based Socialist People's
Party (SNP), but the SNP's deputy leader has reached out
1 29 September 2000
 Milosevic's only hope is to survive long enough to hold the second round
of presidential elections and to rally his supporters. Even that would not
save him unless the public gives up the struggle to oust him.
2 29 September 2000