NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005451495
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2010
• Case Number: F-2009-00733
• Publication Date: December 22, 1992

(b)(1)
(b)(3)
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE:
06-23-2010
Director of Central Ieoe
NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE
DAILY
Tesday, Z2 December 1992
CPAS NID 92-297JX
/`J
 Various sources suggest that Milosevic and his supporters engaged in systematic fraud that
probably was decisive in keeping the presidential election from going to a second round:
- CSCE election observers characterized the election as seriously flawed; they
estimated that at least 5 percent of prospective voters, most of whom probably
would have supported the opposition, were not allowed to participate.
- A member of the Serbian electoral board resigned last night, claiming the board had
become an arm of the Serbian government.
- Monitors also reported an instance in which opposition party representatives were
dismissed from the multiparty election commission and the police were called to
remove them for alleged disruption.
- Other election-day problems noted by some international observers included
intimidation of voters and low standards of secrecy at polling places.
- The democratic opposition claimed voter rolls included deceased persons and
fraudulent addresses, and individuals were caught casting more than one ballot.
 Although Serbian President Milosevic appears headed for a first-round
election victory, in part on the strength of allegedly widespread fraud,
the relatively strong support for the Serbian opposition probabl, will
ensure a continued stalemate between him and federal leaders.
Early unofficial returns indicate that the ruling Socialists and the
democratic opposition are each polling about 30 percent in the
Serbian and federal legislative elections. Ultranationalist leader
Vojislav Seselj's party probably will gain about 20 percent of the
vote. Federal Prime Minister Panic is charging widespread fraud
and demanding that the election be repeated within 90 days. The
democratic opposition has cited numerous voting irregularities,
including unsealed ballot boxes, the lack of opposition ballots at
polling places, and flawed voter rolls.
Preliminary election results from Montenegro indicate that the ruling
Democratic Party of Socialists could gain an absolute majority of
seats in the republic legislature and a majority of Montenegro's seats
in the lower house of the federal assembly. Parties favoring weaker
ties to Serbia generally did not fare well. Incumbent Montenegrin
President Bulatovic. a former protege of Milosevic, is leading in the
presidential race but probably will face former Yugoslav presidency
member Branko Kostic--who has taken an even stronger pro-Serbian
line and is supported by Serb ultranationalists-in a runoff on
5 January.
Comment: Despite Milosevic's manipulation of the election, the
stalemate between the federal government and the Serbian republic
is likely to continue; Yugoslav politics almost certainly will become
even more polarized. With Montenegrin help, the democratic
opposition may be able to secure control of the federal assembly,
frustrate Milosevic's initiatives, strengthen federal President Cosic,
and even reappoint Panic as prime minister. The relatively lackluster
showing of the Serbian Socialists, however, probably will force
Milosevic into a coalition with Serb ultranationalists, which will
move Serbian politics even further to the right. There is no indication
that Milosevic will alter his authoritarian leadership style. He is still
revered by many Serbs, and he will continue to challenge his
constituents to have the courage to endure sanctions and achieve
Serbia's national goals. The strong showing of the Montenegrin
Socialists and other pro-Serb parties in Montenegro, meanwhile,
will help legitimize the rump federation and undercut calls by
proindependence parties for Montenegro to secede.