SIZE OF THE NATO-OWNED AND CONTROLLED MERCHANT FLEET

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: CIA Analysis of the Soviet Navy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005499812
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 19, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 19, 2017
• Case Number: SC-2007-00006
• Publication Date: August 29, 1978

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20505
29 August 1978
MEMORANDUM FOR:
SUBJECT
Presidential Briefing Coordinator
Size of the NATO-Owned and Controlled
Merchant Fleet
1. Data provided by the Naval Intelligence Support
Center (NISC) on the size of the NATO-flag merchant fleet
are close to the figures cited in the intelligence
assessment "The Role of Interdiction at Sea in Soviet
Naval Strategy and Operations" (May 1978). The differences
would not change the conclusions of the assessment, which
used a figure of about 5,800 merchant ships in NATO's
inventory suitable for resupplying Europe with military
and economic cargoes. Data are available on the number
of US-controlled ships registered under flags of con-
venience. Detailed research might produce Comparable
data for other NATO countries.
NATO-Flag Merchant Fleet
2. The assessment used statistics from Lloyd's
Register of Shipping that showed over 9,600 NATO-flag
merchant ships of more than 100 gross register tons (GRT).
It further cited a study
that concluded that more than 5,000 of these would
e sui able for a sealift of supplies and materiel from
North America to Europe. After deleting ships smaller -
than 6,000 GRT from the Lloyd's statistics, the author
of the assessment ended up with 5,800 ships suitable for
delivering military and economic cargoes to Europe.
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3. NISC data show 5,565 NATO-flag merchant ships
larger than 6,000 GRT, totaling about 236 million dead-
weight tons (DWT), as shown in the following table:
NATO-Flag Fleet
Type of Ship
Number
L000 pwr
Total*
5,565
236,412
of which
Liner types**
, 2,364
32,565
Bulk carriers
1,443
51,002
Tankers
1,637
151,104
* Total includes miscellaneous types such as refrigerated
ships, short sea ferries, and passenger ships, which are
not included among the major components.
**Liner types include general cargo, container, roll-on/
roll-off, and barge-carrying ships.
4. NISC analysts have raised some objections to the
use of these numbers and would prefer to massage the data
to get a more precise count of the ships both suitable
and available for a sealift. They claim that the figures
understate the amount of tonnage available because the
6,000 GRT cutoff excludes many ships, expecially ro/ro ships,
capable of transoceanic operations.*
5. Partly offsetting the undercounting of certain
ships are two other factors: 1) because the ships are
employed throughout the world's oceans, they may not be
immediately available when needed, but would probably
become available in the assessment's postulated 120-day
war; and 2) only a portion of the available fleet is earmarked
for resupply effort and these ships would receive special
protection not accorded other ships.
* Because GRT measures only enclosed spaces, it excludes
much of the cargo carrying capacity of ro/ro ships. Inclusion
of ro/ro ships in the 1,000-5,999 GRT size range, however,
would add only 183 NATO-flag ships at 624,000 DWT.
On the other hand, inclusion of general cargo ships in this
size range -- not all of which would be suitable -- would
add over 1,500 ships totaling 6.8 million DWT.
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Flag of Convenience Fleets
6. NISC data show 3,700 merchant ships larger than
6,000 GRT registered under flags of convenience as shown
in the attached table. .
7. Except for data on US-owned ships, only fragmentary
information is available on ownership by"nationality
of flag of convenience ships. For example, a June 1977
press report indicated that almost 300 West German ships
were operating under foreign flags, but no tonnage figure
was given. Military Sealift Command statistics show
460 US-controlled foreign flag ships totaling about
46 million DWT. Many of these are tankers owned by US oil
companies operating under the Liberian flag. Greeks
and overseas Chinese are also major owners of flag of
convenience ships and Japanese owners have begun to increase
their holdings of such ships. Ownership and nationality
of many of these ships are disguised for tax purposes.
Extensive research would be required to produce data on
ownership by nationality of convenience flag ships.
Attachment:
As stated
Chief
International Transportation Branch
International Trade and Services Division
Office of Economic Research
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T..
Flag of Convenience Fleets
Country
Total Fleet
Liner Types
Bulk Carriers
Tankers
Number
1,000 DWI'
Number
1,000 DWI'
Number
1,000 DWP
Number
1,000 MT
TOTAL
3,700
196,522
1,120
15,089
1,173
38,514
1,242
141,491
Bahamas
4
128
2
52
2
76
Cyprus
149
2,042
107
1,298
22
395
13
259
Hong Kong
13
411
5
72
6
323
1
16
Honduras
14
105
1
11
,
Liberia
2,146
153,386
326
5,167
784
28,615
960
119,038
Netherlands Antilles
35
3,036
7
80
7
306
18
2,635
Panama
972
26,175
488
6,099
276
6,564
163
13,066
? Seychelles
2
17
1
8
Singapore ?
365
11,222
185
2,354
76
2,259
85
6,401
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