NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005500157
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 22, 1985

APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE:
07-22-2010
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 Spain-US: Security Talks
Madagascar-U8: Visit of President Ratsiraka
Bulgaria: Ministerial Changes
Japan: Advance in Semiconductor Technology
Spacial Analyses
International: Terrorist Attacks on Business Targets
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 SPAIN-US: Security Talks
The Spanish probably hope that the security talks beginning
tomorrow in Madrid will lead to progress toward reductions in US
Prime Minister Gonzalez's government is playing down the
significance of the opening round. The Spanish media, however, are
portraying the talks as the bficinnina of negotiations to reduce the US
military presence in Spain.
The three-day meeting will be largely organizational and is to end with
an agreement on the outlines of studies both sides will undertake on
security-related topics. Both sides have agreed to a joint statement at
the conclusion of this round of the talks rather than a press
Comment: Spain and the US agreed to talks during President
Reagan's visit to Spain in May. The two-stage talks will begin with a
general discussion of Spain's contribution to Western defense and, at
an unspecified date, will lead to talks on the possible reduction of US
military forces in Spain.
The Spanish had hoped to move quickly to stage two for an
agreement on reductions in the unpopular US presence hoping this
would boast public support for membership in NATO. Even though
they seem to have backed off in the face of strong US reluctance to
discuss force levels until the issue of Spain's membership in NATO is
resolved, force reductions remain a goal of Gonzalez
Gonzalez is still on record for holding a referendum on Spain's
membership In NATO by next April. If he decides to go ahead, he will
be likely to push hard for an early discussion of the US presence.
that the talks should not fail or cause open differences with the US.
Such concerns were probably a factor in Spain's decision to forgo a
press conference after this round.
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 TopSfttst-
Age 48 ... Head of Government, Chief of
State, and President of the Supreme
Revolutionary Council since 1975 ... makes
all important decisions . . . seeks recognition as
a Third World leader ... has indulged in
anti-US rhetoric
studied at French Naval
Officers School and served as an officer in
French Navy before Madagascar's independence
in 1960.
 President Ratsiraka, who meets with Vice President Bush on
Friday, probably hopes his first trip to the US since assuming
power 10 years ago will further his efforts to secure increased
Madagascar's socialist government, which espouses nonalignment,
maintains close ties to radical Third World states, the USSR and its
allies, and North Korea. The Soviets provide Madagascar with almost
all its military equipment and training, and they further enhance their
influence with the regime by supplying Soviet-piloted military aircraft
to transoort food and commodities to the country's outlying regions.
With Madagascar's economy stagnating and Moscow and
P'yongyang evidently unwilling to provide sufficient economic
assistance. Ratsiraka has begun to turn to the West. In addition to
dismantling the signals intelligence network, Ratsiraka has
underscored his intent to improve relations with the West by
permitting a French warship to call at a Malagasy naval base and by
passing modest economic liberalization measures. Earlier this month
he visited France, as well as China. North Korea, and the USSR, in a
largely unsuccessful bid for aid.
Comment: Ratsiraka is frustrated with the limited Western response
so far but is gambling that improved relations with the West
eventually will bring him the economic assistance he requires without
costing him support among the leftist groups that have backed him.
Ratsiraka probably will remain cautious in dealing with the West,
however, fearing that the Soviets may try to preserve their influence
by stirring up opposition in the Malagasy military or by withdrawing
their transportation assistance.
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 s
 Iraqi Republican
Guard battled
with Shia dissidents
Shia dissidents clashed
with Iraqi security forces
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
 ragi security forces were
involved in a daylong shootout last week with suspected members of
the Dawa Party-the principal Shia opposition group In Iraq-in two
communities near Baghdad. A brigade of the elite Republican Guard
fought as many as 100 armed dissidents near Ba'qubah; police killed
three other Dawal uspects in a second engagement on the same day.
Comment: The Dawa Party has been fairly inactive inside Iraq since
security forces penetrated its clandestine network and arrested
hundreds of its members two years ago. Iraqi Shia exiles from Iran
probably staged last week's incidents, which may have been timed to
coincide with the anniversary of the founding of the Supreme
Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an opposition front that
Top 6 t
22 October 1985
10
 counterpart Ba 7 akov suffered the same fate.
Soviet criticism this year of Bulgarian economic inefficiency and
corruption. During their discussions with Gorbachev, the Bulgarians
probably will cite the shakeup as evidence of their attempts to
improve economic management. Bonev's departure as chairman of
the State Planning Committee came only three days after his Soviet
on Energy Problems. Other changes may be in the works.
The Bulgarian State Council decreed four changes in the Cabinet last
Friday, three days before General Secretary Gorbachev's arrival in
Sofia for the current meeting of the Warsaw Pact Political
Consultative Committee and a two-day working visit. All involved the
economy. Ivan Iliev, an aide to party leader Zhivkov, replaced Stanish
Bonev as chairman of the State Planning Committee and as deputy
prime minister, posts he previously held in the mid-1970s. Reflecting
growing concern about the economy, First Deputy Prime Minister
Chudomir Aleksandrov, 49, a fast-rising Zhivkov protege with a
reputation as an effective administrator and a close friend of the
Soviet Ambassador, was named to head anew party-state Committee
other major semiconductor firms.
Japanese researchers have fabricated a complex opto-electronic
circuit with new equipment that for the first time combines crystal-
growth and doping technologies in a single tool. The work was done
at a government-sponsored laboratory staffed by Fujitsu, Hitachi, and
military applications
Comment: The new equipment could be important to a variety of
military systems that contain electronic circuits. The equipment
should allow semiconductor firms to manufacture higher quality
devices-typically sought by defense industry manufacturers-and to
achieve higher yields. The Japanese, adept at reducing process costs,
are now in a good position to lead in the development and
exploitation of the new equipment. The role of major semiconductor
firms in the research program may speed that commercialization.
Nevertheless, high manufacturing costs probably will limit early use to
 - About 30,000 British miners split from National Union of Miners
Sunday ... hoping to attract Scargill opponents, will call for
recognition by Trades Union Congress.. . Tories exploiting rift by
offering group separate government contracts.
40
 East Asia - Slightly warmer communique marked end of seventh round of
Sino-Sovlet talks ... no progress apparent thus far on China's
demands regarding the "three obstacles" ... next round
scheduled for April
- Philippine police yesterday killed two demonstrators, wounded
about 30 during antigovernment rally near US Embassy in Manila
... second violent clash between police, protesters in past month
- Gestures to open markets announced by South Korea ...
resurrect plan withdrawn in September after domestic opposition
... frees imports of alfalfa, auto parts, but Seoul still balking at
- Zambian police last Friday broke up demonstration by taxi drivers
on strike over major currency devaluation, doubling of petroleum
prices ... mild grumbling in military's enlisted ranks ... regime still
international - USSR backing Algerian resolution allowing Director General to fire
all US citizens from UNESCO Secretariat, exclude them from
future recruitment ... resolution may not pass. but US ores e
almost certainly will decline through attrition
a
 International Terrorist Attacks Against Business Targets
a Figures for 1985 are a preliminary assessment of January-
June incidents only.
40
 Special Analysis
INTERNATIONAL: Terrorist Attacks on Business Targets
righter security at most US Embassies and other government
Installations is making US business people and facilities more
inviting targets.
Attacks by political terrorists on business targets-most of them
American -in the first half of 1985 were 35 percent above the same
period in 1984. Business targets now account for about one-fourth of
Attacks have been reported in many parts of the world, but most
attacks on US firms have occurred in Latin America, where bombings
of banking and other business facilities have been the favored tactic.
Between January and July of this year there were five major bombings
of US business concerns in Chile. three in Colombia, and two in
Bolivia. Kidnaping also remains a major threat, especially in
Colombia, where leftwing guerrillas have been holding an American
In Western Europe, Spain has been the scene of six bombings of US
business facilities this year, mostly the work of Basque separatists.
Since last winter, however, leftwing terrorists in Western Europe have
been targeting US and other corporations with links to NATO
No incidents involving US firms have been reported in the Middle East
so far this year, but the largely unprotected US commercial presence
in Saudi Arabia and other states on the Persian Gulf remains
vulnerable to radical Palestinians and Shia extremists.
well as the US Embassy in Kuwait.
The trend of the past few years probably will continue. US commercial
interests not only are likely to remain soft targets, but they will often
be seen as symbols of "Imperialism" and lucrative sources of
extortion payments. t least
$350 million was paid in ransom to terrorists between 1973 and 1983,
but many payments go unreported and the actual figure probably is
several times higher
 The costs to business are not limited to direct payments.
multinational corporations spend more than $2 billion a year to
protect their assets from political violence. Kidnaping and ransom
insurance oremiums alone are estimated at some $80 million
annually.
Terrorism also has an adverse effect on productivity. Companies.
particularly those in high-technology fields, are often reluctant to send
advanced equipment or key. people to threatened areas. Many
companies have chosen to ship equipment out for repairs rather than
risk brinaina in US technicians; thereby increasing downtime and
In summary, the US loses jobs, foreign exchange, and constructive
links to friendly countries when businesses have difficulty operating
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