NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 28 OCTOBER 1985

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005500163
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 28, 1985

Director of
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National Intelligence Daily
Monday
28 October 1985
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 Thailand-US: Embargo Strains Relations
Notes
South Korea-US: Prime Minister's Mission
China-USSR: Chinese Account of Recent Talks
Colombia: Marijuana Production Down
 Thailand-US: Embargo Strains Relations
Notes
South Korea-US: Prime Minister's Mission
China-USSR: Chinese Account of Recent Talks
Colombia: Marijuana Production Down
Iran-Czechoslovakia: Talks on T-72 Tank Sale
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 THAILAND-US: Embargo Strains Relations
A US embargo on imports of Thai apparel for the rest of this
year-which almost certainly will compound Bangkok's
economic difficulties-has renewed Thai resentment over
bilateral trade issues and is prompting calls for retaliation
Three thousand textile workers marched in front of the US Embassy
in Bangkok on Friday to protest the embargo. Layoffs of textile
workers-likely to reach at least 50,000-have begun, following
Bangkok's decision earlier this month to accept the halt in garment
exports to the US rather than face reduced quotas under a new trade
agreement. Thai shipments already have reached the US quota for
Comment: From Bangkok's perspective, the embargo is one more
instance of US insensitivity to Thailand's economic difficulties in an
increasing number of bilateral trade disputes. Exports this year are
expected to decline by 2 percent from $7.3 billion in 1984, and the
cutoff of apparel shipments to the US-3 percent of Thailand's total
export earnings-is likely to add to Banokok's foreign debt
Moreover, the embargo probably will hamper Prime Minister Prem's
efforts to rebuild his political standing, which was shaken by last
month's unsuccessful coup. Prem needs to justify the continued
support of his backers, and his soft response to Washington's trade
actions against Thai exports may make that difficult. He also is likely
to face increased pressure from members of the opposition T
Nation Party, which has an interest in the Thai textile industry
Although Prem probably will not sanction harsh measures against the
US, continued trade tension with Washington could leave Prem little
alternative but to endorse some form of retaliatory action. The most
likely action is a cutback on imports of US agricultural products or
reduced Thai sunnort on narcotics suppression and refugee issues.
 0 0
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 dviser to President Chun has expressed concern
over statements on South Korean domestic deve opmen s
practices. Seoul is nervous that the issuance of visas to three North
Korean academics signals a shift in US policy toward P'yoavanai one
Prime Minister Lho's visit to Washington this week comes amid
growing acrimony over recent US actions against South Korean trade
Comment: Lho is likely to try to persuade US officials and members
of Congress that restrictions on Korean textiles and other imports
would create widespread economic hardship, raising the potential for
political instability. Lho may also ask US officials not to take further
steps that North Korea could misread as evidence that Washington is
reconsidering its opposition to direct contacts with P'yongyang. In
private talks, Lho may contend that public US rebukes regarding
human rights and Dther political issues play into the hands of
Both China and the USSR modified their tactics during the recently
concluded seventh round of vice-ministerial talks, but made no
progress on the securitv issues dividina hem.
the Chines presen e a proposal or the
normalization o relations that calls or the Soviets to recognize the
five principles of peaceful coexistence and to eliminate the "three
obstacles." The Soviets criticized US disarmament proposals and
charged that the US threatens security in the Asia-Pacific region.
Beijing rejected Moscow's proposal to hold further discussions on
their common opposition to SDI, saving that China does not accept
warming in Sino-Soviet relations.
Comment: China's proposal counters longstanding Soviet efforts
toward a joint statement of principles that Moscow wants to replace
the lapsed Sino-Soviet treaty. By incorporating the "three obstacles"
in the drafts, the Chinese are trying to prevent the Soviets from
shifting the focus of the talks to areas tangential to Chinese interests.
Nevertheless, Moscow may try to portray the expanded scope of the
talks as evidence of common anti-US positions as well as continued
 Colombia's marijuana crop for 1985 will be smaller than it has been
for several years. Analysis of major growing areas
in northeastern Colombia last July indicates that marijuana
production could be as low as 1,200 tons,, an 85-percent reduction
from an estimated 8,200 tons in 1933. The survey also shows that the
total area of marijuana cultivation is about 17,500 acres (7,000
Comment: An aerial eradication program conducted since May 1984
by the Colombian National Police is the rimary reason for the
decrease. Colombia has
accounted for about to 70 percent of marijuana imports reaching
the US in recent years. The quantity reaching the US market in the
next six months, however, will be greatly reduced. Traffickers may try
to regain the initiative by moving operations to new areas, and
Bogota's success would be short lived if spraying and interdiction
4P
14
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 Iran and Czechoslovakia have agreed to discuss a possible sale of
T-72 tanks, but the Soviets may block the deal. An Iranian delegation
is to visit Prague to discuss the details. Prague made an offer of
armored personnel carriers earlier this year but abruptly broke off
discussions with the Iranians, presumably after both the Iraqis and the
Comment: There is no indication that Moscow has changed its earlier
position, and, in any case, the Czechoslovaks would not want to anger
Iraq. The Czechoslovaks would like to earn more hard currency in the
Iranian market, and Prague might be holding out the possibility of
0 40
 FRANCE-CHINA: Proposed Remote-Sensing Satellite
France recently proposed a cooperative remote-sensing satellite
project with China. The satellite would have a multispectral scanner
with a resolution of 30 meters; it would s French satellite carrier
that may not be available until 1989.
Comment: The Chinese have been seeking advanced Western space
technology, and the resolution would be a big improvement over
existing Chinese technology. They may accept the French offer if they
see a chance to gain access to French space technology and to gain
experience in processing 30-meter remote-sensing data for
geological and agricultural research. The multispectral scanner would
have near-infrared capability and would have a ground resolution
comparable to the US Landsat 5 thematic mapper, but less than that
of the French SPOT imaging system. Because the proposed satellite
would not have data recorders or a satellite data relay but would
operate only in view of a ground station, it would not be commerciall
 Middle East - Jordan's King Hussein was in Baghdad Saturday for talks with
Iraqi President Husayn ... probably reviewed state of play in
Saudi-promoted Syrian-Jordanian reconciliation dialogue ...
probably also discussed latest dealings with Arafat.
- Foreign Ministers of the six Gulf Cooperation Council member
states met yesterday in Oman . . . completed preparations for GCC
summit opening there next Sunday ... probably reviewed effect of
Americas - Salvadoran Colonel Avalos, former head of presidential military
staff, kidnaped Saturday ... presumably work of FMLN ...
probably intended to keep government off balance and dramatize
leftist hostility to Air Force counterinsurgency.
- Pro-US United Bermuda Party probably will increase slightly
legislative majority in national election tomorrow ... opposition
leaders privately concede defeat ... no major changes expected in
domestic or foreign policy in near future.
- Head of Polish Church's political prisoner committee convinced
new parliament will offer amnesty to political prisoners early next
month . . . regime says it holds 363 . . . government spokesman
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 - Soviet press announced that USSR Supreme Soviet to meet next
month on 1986 plan and budget ... may be preceded by Central
President Soeharto's family ... follows recent fires at two
government buildings in Jakarta ... similar incidents occurred last
year when government restricted Islamic political activity.
- Singapore economy reportedly contracted by 2.7 percent in third
quarter ... business community now expects negative 4.5-percent
 Highlights of the New Program
Overview
- Revises Khrushchev's 1961 program, sets party's goals through 2000.
- Shorter and less specific than 1961 program, drops many targets for
economic sectors.
- Adopts more cautious view of future, postponing the achievement of
Communism from "immediate" to distant future and deleting
projections for surpassing US.
Domestic Goals
- Double volume of resources devoted to consumer sector by "as early
as" 2000.
- Individual home or apartment for "practically every" family by 2000.
- Enshrines key elements of Gorbachev's agenda calling for
decentralization of management, "considerable expansion" of powers
of enterprises and local officials, and reduction of administrative
apparatus,
- Stresses importance of heavy industry and calls for increased priority
for machine building.
Foreign Policy Provisions
- Sets primary foreign policy goal as creation of favorable climate to
carry out domestic agenda.
- Calls for peaceful coexistence with West, while pledging to maintain
military-strategic parity.
- Less sanguine than 1961 program about prospects for immediate
collapse of capitalism.
 The draft of the new Communist Party program released on
Saturday provides Genera! Secretary Gorbachev an expanded
range of options In pursuing his domestic agenda. It takes a more
sober view of Soviet prospects than the overly ambitious 1961
document It replaces but sets some ambitious goals in its own
right.
Nikita Khrushchev's 1961 program predicted that the USSR would
surpass the US in terms of per capita production by 1970 and made
unrealistic promises for improvement of living conditions. Although
the new program is more cautious and less specific, it is optimistic
about the future. It sets ambitious goals for the improvement of
housing. consumer production, and the economy as a whole, and is
The program is short on specifics on how these targets will be
achieved, providing few details that go beyond the agenda set forth in
public by Gorbachev since becoming party leader. It enshrines as
party policy his goals of decentralizing economic management.
shifting the role of central ministries toward long-term strategic
planning, and increasing the priority of machine building.
At the same time, the program lays the groundwork for the possibility
of more fundamental reforms:
--- Without directly addressing the subject of market socialism, it
provides the theoretical basis for expanding the role of the
market by calling for an expansion of "commodity-money
relations"-a measure that has been denounced by party
conservatives as a return to capitalism.
- It leaves the door open for expanding the private sector by
dropping passages from the 1961 program that call for the
elimination of private farming, and it implicitly allows for
The reduced prominence of foreign policy concerns in the draft
program underscores Gorbachev's emphasis on domestic rebuilding.
The sections on foreign and domestic policy are reversed from 1961,
with the latter now coming first. Also indicative of current priorities is
the opening statement in the foreign policy section that the main goal
of the USSR in the international sphere is to "ensure favorable
conditions" for domestic development.
 The program appears to reject conservative pressures for a more
rigid policy toward Eastern Europe. The flexible approach to
economic diversity within the Bloc that it exhibits could ease the way
for the adootion in the USSR of economic reforms tried out there.
By endorsing a relatively positive view of market reforms and the
private sector. the program appears to be a victory for Gorbachev
over economic conservatives in the party. The provisions in the new
program give advocates of reform ammunition to counter
conservative objections that such measures would be ideologically
unacceptable. Although the tentative terms in which these subjects
are addressed do not amount to a clear endorsement for such
reforms, they leave Gorbachev's options open should he decide to
 A 0
 JAMAICA: Drug Industry Expanding
The production and distribution of illegal drugs in Jamaica have
evolved rapidly from fragmented, small-scale operations to a
consolidated criminal enterprise increasingly difficult to control.
Under steady US pressure, the Jamaican Government has taken
steps since late 1984 to improve its counternarcotics
procedures, but Kingston will have difficulty sustaining its efforts
Until recently, independent subsistence farmers serving the domestic
market were the mainstays of Jamaican marijuana production, but in
the past few years production has increased sharply. US-sponsored
aerial surveys since 1983 have revealed marijuana crops far
exceeding domestic demand; most of the surplus has ended up on
A relatively few large-scale growers with access to capital now
dominate Jamaican marijuana production and have expanded quickly
to meet new demand. These relatively sophisticated producers have
moved into international trafficking. Several have developed
distribution networks in the US retail market, and some also have
begun trafficking in cocaine.
Growing drug abuse and domestic violence in Jamaica have
accompanied these changes. Jamaican drug traders have been
importing illegal weapons to protect their expanding operations, and
Jamaica's development as a transit area for South American cocaine
has stimulated the domestic market for the drug. With the rise of
violence and drug abuse, many Jamaicans are changing their formerly
Since late 1984 the government has improved drug enforcement by
increasing the pace of marijuana eradication and tightening control of
Jamaica's many airfields. This approach may be in part an attempt to
mollify US officials critical of Jamaican performance, but in large
measure it probably reflects the shift in public attitudes and a growing
realization that drug production and trafficking have gotten out of
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