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June 24, 2015
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October 29, 1985
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(b)(1) (b)(3) APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE: 07-22-2010 on- Top seerell E 7'" O K Two* Copy 535 ti .. Y. South Africa: Elections Test White Support Notes CEMA-Nicaragua: Increasing Aid In Brief Special Analyses Israel-PLO: Prospects for Israeli Retaliation. Afghanistan-UN: Insurgent Representatives __ ...... 13 q* qw South African Parliamentary Byelections --Top sow" The ruling National Party probably will retain at least four of five seats being contested in parliamentary byelections tomorrow, even though rlahtwinn opponents are expected to make a strong showing The press reports that the contests probably will be close in two districts where the rightwing Conservative Party and the Herstigte National Party are fielding a single candidate against the ruling party. The liberal Progressive Federal Partv ex a to finish second In the two elections it has entered, National Party campaigners, including President Botha, have taken a tough line in the rural, heavily Afrikaner constituencies of Orange Free State and northern Cape Province. The appeal to conservative voters has followed law and order themes, defiant statements of resistance to foreign pressures, and condemnation of recent liberal opposition meetings with the African National Congress. Recent polls have shown an approval rate of 82 percent among Afrikaners nationwide of state-of-emergency measures in the contest in Springs district the contrast to the governmant's program of gradual racial reform. Comment: The elections will not affect the balance in Par;iament, where the National Party has 128 of 178 seats, but a poor showing by the National Party would be a setback for government efforts to sell Its reform program to whites. The rightwing parties probably will interpret any narrow victories by the ruling party as a sign that their support is growing amid increasing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of unrest and the economy. The Nationalists, constituencies as a mandate for its present policies. i 40 Soviet Bloc countries promised to boost economic and technical aid to Nicaragua during the second annual meeting of the CEMA- Nicaragua Mixed Commission which ended Friday in Managua. According to press releases, Sandinista poiicymakers claim the new accord will substantially Increase aid, but they refuse to provide specifics. Projects that CEMA countries are financing Include cattle and vegetable farms, a deepwater port on the Atlantic coast, and scholarshi s for Nicaraguan students in the USSR and Eastern Europe. the Soviets and East Europeans rejected ananua s continuing a empts Comment: The Soviets almost certainly saw the meeting as a way to encourage their allies to increase aid to the Sandinistas. They also hope that continuing the annual meeting will improve the effectiveness of Bloc economic aid. Moscow's concerns about its Increased outlays if Nicaragua becomes a full CEMA member, and orevent Nicaraoua from becoming any more than an observer. qW i Iraq's reported airstrikes against Inland Iranian oil facilities Indicate Baghdad may be expanding Its air war against economic targets. The Iraqis claim their Air Force struck four pumping stations Inside Iran yesterday, although the attacks have not been confirmed so far. The strikes follow extensive attacks last week against Iranian oil platforms Comment: The Iranian ability to keep Khark Island functioning despite continuing Iraqi attacks may have caused Baghdad to extend its operations into Iran's Interior. Damage to critical pumping stations and other facilities could decrease refinery output, cut natural gas to Iranian cities, and reduce oil exports. The Iraqis, however, would need to make a determined effort to achieve these results. The raids against the oil platforms are designed to knock out Iranian early warning stations there, possibly as a prelude to a larger attack on Khark. i Tog. assomt 40 i Planned Saudi Aircraft Redeployment 'Man ~a... Planned deployment t GUY o/ Tomado squadron Planned FS squadron redeployment - One from Dhahran - One from At Tait - Lightning InteTT ors to be phased out nwry 1. farms ,~ Gulf of Omen ? Saudi Arabia ueffed Ares toekesee A , Peopte'a DemoeraUC Y*nM Yemen Yemen) ) ? abRepublic (N. Ymnen)e Ethiopia Gulf of Aden Sea 7- 3 VAPPWWG qw Middle East - Saudi Arabia moving quickly to implement Tornado program ... first squadron to be based at Dhahran on Gulf ... F-5s to replace obsolescent Lightning interceptors at Tabuk in January ... British Syria and Iraq began, exploratory contacts last week at behest of Saudi Arabia ... high security officials met under guise of routine border security talks ... Syria's support for Iran obstacle to Iranian Consultative Assembly yesterday approved 22 of 24 ministerial nominees provided by Prime Minister Musavi ... two not endorsed had been slated for economic jobs ... shows Assembly still concerned Musavi has mismanaged economy. - Prominent Qatari journalist recently completed trip to USSR at Soviet Invitation. aying down political Importance .. star may reassess lack of ties to Moscow. Liberia to announce today Head of State Doe won elections ... troops deployed in Monrovia to head off po3sible violence by oppositionists claiming fraud ... probably could not - Sudan's last F-5E fighter aircraft lost in air show over Juba Friday ... other than one F-5F trainer, Air Force has no more ground attack fighters ... although operations against rebels not significantly affected, will lower troop morale. - West German newspaper claims Soviets have told wife of Andrey Sakharov she may travel West for alaucoma treatment at r convenience Reagan-Gorbachev meeting, US-USSR discussions on Latin Americas - Cuban press reports Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze met with President Castro on Sunday ... probably discussed coming - Peruvian Foreign Minister's visit to Ecuador last week, trip to Chile early November intended to promote President Garcia's proposal for arms control in region ... major breakthrough unlikely despite optimism of Chilean Foreign Minister. - Leaders of outgoing Italian coalition meet today ... Defense Minister Spadolini's Republicans still distancing themselves from coalition partners on Middle East, terrorism ... press Insists that return of Craxi Cabinet intact most likely outcome. - NATO approved funds for Oslo to build second set of storage facilities in northern Norway next summer ... will house weapons, equipment for a second Norwegian brigade now based in south ... - Netherlands campaigning to win invitation to next May's economic summit in Japan as EC presidency nation... wants views of smaller countries represented ... will cite Precedent in 1982 when South Asia - Several more Pakistani opposition leaders arrested to prevent united action against Parliament decision granting immunity to martial-law administrators ... regime likely to try to weaken opposition by letting principal leader Benzair Bhutto leave country. -? Israeli Prime Minister Peres met Sri Lankan President Jayewardene in Paris yesterday ... probably trying to shore up flagging ties ... Ja ewardene urged to expel Israeli Interests Section Special Analysis ISRAEL-PLO: Prospects for Israeli Retaliation Israel probably will launch reprisals comparable to the airstrike on PLO headquarters in Tunts earlier this month it terrorist Israel has long claimed the right to attack PLO facilities wherever they are located, as it did in Lebanon before the invasion of June 1982 and in Jordan from 1968 to 1970. Such attacks are intended to disrupt the PLO's infrastructure and to upset planned and ongoing operations. They are also meant to persuade other Arab governments that they would be wise to crack down on PLO activities in their countries to The Tunis raid muted criticism from Likud hardliners-most notably Minister of Commerce Sharon-that Prime Minister Peres is soft on terrorism, but they will resume their demands for reprisals if attacks against Israelis continue. They are certain to press hard for strikes against PLO bases in Jordan if future terrorist attacks are linked to planning in Amman. For the time being, however, Peres's newly strengthened credibility will enable him to keep the upper hand in Cabinet discussions of terrorist issues and help him forestall Likud pressure for reprisals against the PLO in Jordan Peres and Rabin, however, probably would support punitive action against PLO bases in Jordan if there were a terrorist "spectacular" or a series of smaller attacks they believed were launched from Jordan. In such circumstances, public pressure for retaliation-fanned by terrorist training camps The Labor-led unity coalition probably would prefer to attack PLO facilities in Algeria or In North or South Yemen, believing such action offers less risk of harming relations with the US and undermining the peace process than would striking at the PLO in Jordan. Since the Tunis raid, Peres and Rabin have repeatedly stressed that King Hussein has not allowed cross-border attacks or establishment of Jordan and to hold out the threat of further reprisals. As a warning to Amman, Tel Aviv probably would sharply increase statements denouncing King Hussein for allowing Palestinians to operate from Jordan and for supporting an intolerable threat to Israel's security. If Israel still felt it necessary to attack, it would be likely to try to reduce the danger to civilians by striking at the PLO military base near Zarqa rather than at PLO administrative offices In Amman. Israel's aim would be to force Hussein to expel the PLO from demands for a more significant show of force. strategy might disrupt PLO operations for a time, it would not discourage further attacks over the long term or satisfy Israeli public As an alternative to airstrikes, Tel Aviv might consider selectively killing PLO officials responsible for organizing terrorist operations, Including Arafat's deputy Abu Jihad and his lieutenants. Although this i Ts er?t 29 October 1985 i Special Analysis AFGHANISTAN-UN: Insurgent Representatives The arrival of an Afghan resistance delegation at the UN General Assembly last weak was the first significant effort by the new Insurgent alliance, Ittihad Islami, to focus International attention on the Afghan issue. The delegation plans eventually to challenge the Afghan Government's representatives at the UN and hopes to seta precedent for representation at other International forums. The group is led by Islamic fundamentalist Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and includes a representative of each of the main groups in the Afghan resistance alliance. The last significant effort by the insurgents to lobby at the UN was in November 1980, when a delegation-split between supporters of former King Zahir and aimrrilla - denied entrance to the General Assembly. If the insurgents become more visible in International organizations- and especially if this were to result in serious challenges to the Kabul regime's credentials-the Soviets would pay a somewhat higher Gulbuddin and other resistance leaders have in the past played down political efforts in favor of military activity, but they may come to see the benefit of a more active international role. An effective presentation at the UN might also help Insurgent unity efforts. A fractious, high-profile delegation, on the other hand, would discredit the resistance, improve Kabul's position, and hamper efforts to build diplomatic and material support. Tep-Sty 40 TepSeeret IV