STATEMENT ON CUBA SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE JULY 29, 1993

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
0005618199
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
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U
Document Page Count: 
5
Document Creation Date: 
June 24, 2015
Document Release Date: 
February 16, 2011
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Case Number: 
F-2010-01786
Publication Date: 
July 29, 1993
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APPROVED FOR RELEASE[] DATE: 31-Jan-2011 STATEMENT ON CUBA SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE aVL 29, 1993 J UL .]U "-i:J 10: G4HP1 1.1H/rUbLil Ht t Hitt r ? o STATEMENT ON CUBA SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE JUL 29, 1993 BRIAN LATELL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR LATIN AMERICA FIDEL CASTRO'S GOVERNMENT IS IN ACUTE DISTRESS. THE ECONOMY HAS CONTRACTED BY MORE THAN 40 PERCENT SINCE 1989 AND IS ON A COURSE LEADING TO FURTHER DECLINE. LARGELY BECAUSE THIS YEAR'S SUGAR HARVEST IS THE SMALLEST IN 30 YEARS, EXPORT REVENUES WILL FALL TO ABOUT $1.6 BILLION, DOWN FROM OVER $5 BILLION IN 1989. MOREOVER, THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH GROWTH IN EXPORT EARNINGS ARE POOR BECAUSE OF SEVERE SHORTAGES OF FERTILIZERS AND HERBICIDES, THE DECREPITUDE OF SUGAR MILLS AND EQUIPMENT; AND MOUNTING TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS. EARNINGS FROM NICKEL AND OTHER TRADITIONAL EXPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LEVELS OF RECENT YEARS BECAUSE OF FALTERING PRODUCTION AND LOW PRICES. NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS HAVE ONLY MARGINAL PROSPECTS UNLESS CUBAN SCIENTISTS WERE TO DEVELOP CUTTING EDGE PHARMACEUTICAL OR MEDICAL PRODUCTS AND MARKET THEM EFFECTIVELY ABROAD. GROSS REVENUES FROM TOURISM ROSE ABOUT 33 PERCENT LAST YEAR TO NEARLY $400 MILLION, BUT THE NET CONTRIBUTION TO THE ECONOMY IS RELATIVELY SMALL BECAUSE OF HIGH OPERATING COSTS. FOREIGN INVESTMENT OF ABOUT $100 MILLION ANNUALLY BETWEEN 1990 AND 1992 HAS BEEN LARGELY IN THE TOURIST SECTOR. CUBA IS RECEIVING ONLY MINIMAL FOREIGN CREDITS AND IS UNLIKELY TQ RECEIVE MORE BECAUSE ITS MORE THAN $7 BILLION HARD CURRENCY DEBT TO WESTERN CREDITORS HAS BEEN IN ARREARS SINCE THE MID-1980S. AS A RESULT OF THESE FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, IMPORTS, WHICH DECLINED BY NEARLY 75 PERCENT BETWEEN 1989 AND 1992, WILL FALL ANOTHER 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS YEAR. WITH FOOD AND PETROLEUM CONSTITUTING NEARLY TWO THIRDS OF IMPORT SPENDING, ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR OTHER PURCHASES, INCLUDING ALL CONSUMER NEEDS AND MILITARY SUPPLIES. SEVERELY CURTAILED IMPORTS OF INDUSTRIAL SPARE PARTS, MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT, TRANSPORTATION GOODS, AGRICULTURAL INPUTS, AND OTHER CRITICAL COMMODITIES WILL FURTHER UNDERMINE THE PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY. THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE POPULACE HAS BEEN DEVASTATING. FOOD SHORTAGES AND DISTRIBUTION PROBLEMS HAVE CAUSED MALNUTRITION AND DISEASE, BUT ALTHOUGH THE DIFFICULTIES OF SUBSISTING WILL INTENSIFY, THE REGIME SHOULD BE ABLE TO PREVENT LARGE SCALE STARVATION. PUBLIC HEALTH, SANITATION, AND OTHER SERVICES WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE, ADDITIONAL FACTORIES WILL BE IDLED (MORE THAN HALF ALREADY HAVE CURTAILED PRODUCTION), AND THOSE UNEMPLOYED OR UNDEREMPLOYED WILL PROBABLY RISE TO AT LEAST HALF OF THE LABOR FORCE. FUEL SHORTAGES ARE NOW CAUSING DAILY BLACKOUTS OF UP TO 10 TO 16 HOURS IN HAVANA, AS WELL AS THE VIRTUAL COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. MR. CHAIRMAN, ONLY SMALL SEGMENTS OF THE POPULATION WILL ENJOY ANY AMELIORATION OF THESE PRIVATIONS. CUBA'S LEADERS. RECOGNIZE THE GRAVITY OF THE SITUATION AND JUL 3b '93 1u: Hfl L1H/YU