THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 29 AUGUST-1 SEPTEMBER 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959397
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: September 1, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
29 AUGUST ? 1 SEPTEMBER 1964
TOr5EC?REL
3
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1 September 1964
1. South Vietnam: The power struggle continues.
Khanh appears reluctant to try to reassert his
leadership of the government and relieve acting
Premier Oanh, who has been talking of himself as
destined to lead Vietnam out of its morass.
In a talk with Ambassador Taylor in Dalat on
31 August, Khanh said he might appear in Saigon in
a few days to show that he is still premier and to
quash rumors that he is mentally ill. Taylor got
the impression, however, that? Khanh was disinclined
to head the government unless he had real authority.
Khanh, however, is giving out conflicting
stories. He has told the press he would be back
in two weeks
Khiem, the
third member of the Khanh-Minh-Khiem triumvirate,
may be maneuvering in his own behalf. General
Minh would like to see himself as chief of state
with Khanh as premier.
Although Khanh has some minor physical troubles,
he does seem to fear a Dai Viet power play. He
told Taylor the Military Revolutionary Council had
asked him last week to stay on as head of govern-
ment but he turned them down because of his distrust
of the Dai Viet generals.
(Cont'd)
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We think the Communists.may be biding their
time, hesitant to take actions which.might unify
disputing factions in Saigon. They are probably,
preparing to move quickly, however, if the situa-
tion stabilizes or if there is a coup.
2. Cyprus: The island is quiet, but the Greek
Cypriot economic blockade, despite reported agree-
ments to end it, could push Turkish Cypriots to
the point of explosion.if their supplies shrink
further.
(Cont' d)
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Athens has again sent Greek Defense Minister
Garoufalias to Nicosia, reportedly to negotiate
with Makarios over Ankara's demand for permission
to rotate part of its army contingent on Cyprus.
The Turks on Saturday announced temporary
postponement of rotation, after urgent pleas from
many quarters.
Garoufalias probably also hopes to learn about
the Makarios-Nasir talks over the weekend. Before
he left, Makarios told UN force commander Thimayya
that he would try to get an agreement to use Egyptian
facilities for staging aircraft. The Makarios-
Nasir communiqu?poke obscurely of "all possible"
Egyptian support for Cyprus.
Makarios appears to be shifting his ground on
the question of union with Greece. He openly cham-
pioned the idea when he was in Egypt over the week-
end. He stressed, however, that the island should
be demilitarized, apparently with the idea of bar-
ring the present British base areas as well as any
proposed Turkish or NATO bases.
General Grivas, in a speech Sunday, also urged
"unconditional enosis" without ceding Cypriot soil
to any foreigner. Previously he was not as ada-
mantly opposed as Makarios to a NATO base on Cyprus.
There is some possibility of open violence on
the island between General Grivas' followers and
the Communists; there have been recent exchanges
of denunciation.
(Cont'd)
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In Turkey, demonstrators apparently intend to
continue their protests against US policy, but Inonu
has come out against the earlier excesses and the
security forces are taking a firmer hand. The Turks
have not been chary with dark hints--public and
private--about adopting a more independent foreign
policy ("a new way") unless Turkish demands regard-
ing a Cyprus plan are met,
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3. Congo: The government's military position is
increasingly precarious in the north, but has im-
proved in the south.
In Katanga, Albertville has at last been re-
captured--with mopping-up still going on
In the north, however, the rebels hold the
initiative. They apparently have taken Lisala, on
the Congo River below Stanleyville; there is no re-.
liable government force between Lisala and Coqu&lhat-
ville, 400 miles downriver. Bunia, hear.Uganda,
has been reinforced twice in the last week, but: the
government position there is reported as "grave,"
Rebels in Stanleyville now seem willing, to
let civil aircraft land there, but the .Stanleyville
radio still threatens to hold foreign personnel
:hostage.
Opposition and rebel leaders appear to be
gathering in the east. Gaston Soumialot, CNL
leader who formerly headed the rebels in Albert-
ville, is in Stanleyville; CNL president Gbenye
is in Bujumbura, in Burundi, and may be joined
there by Antoine Gizenga, the former Lumumba
lieutenant who over the weekend announced the for-
mation of a new "united" Lumumbist political party.
(contiq)
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rebel delegation was en route to Addis Ababa for the
OAU session on the Congo--this is scheduled for 5
September, but may be delayed to avoid conflict
with the Arab summit. OAU rules would deny rebels
participation, but they may get backing from radi-
cal member states--Ghana's Nkrumah has been maneuver-
ing to this end.
Tshombe's chances of getting a sympathetic
African hearing are being undermined by the continu-
ing publicity about recruitment of white mercenaries.
4. Communist China - North Vietnam: The Chinese
may be planning to strengthen their naval capability
in the Gulf of Tonkin area.
(Cont'd)
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This weekend, Hanoi, possibly reacting to the
recent deployment of a US Marine brigade in the
South China Sea off Da Nang in South Vietn7m. was
apparently bracing against more attacks.
5. Communist China
6 Laos: Informal talks in Paris among the key
Laotian leaders have made little apparent progress
thus fat Formal sessions were due today.
(Cont 'd)
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Premier Souvanna told Pathet Lao chief Souphan-
nouvong that he would not insist on complete Pathet
Lao withdrawal from the Plaine des Jarres positions
occupied earlier this year. He suggested instead
joint control under ICC supervision. A Souphannou-
vong spokesman has since told the press that this
was rejected pending the settlement of "all out-
standing problems,"
We think the Pathet Lao would buy it only if
given substantial concessions in other areas. How-
ever, in this event, strong rightists, who oppose
any accommodation with the Pathet Lao, might rally
support for the overthrow of the coalition govern-
ment.
In Vientiane, Ambassador Unger has been worried
about a lull in government military operations,
which he believes only partially attributable to
bad weather. He suspects Souvanna may have given
orders for a "stand down" during the Paris talks.
7. Indonesia: There have been new demonstrations
against US rubber estates on Sumatra and against
the US Consulate at Medan. Local officials; however,
seem to be adhering to orders from Djakarta to pre-
vent damage to American properties but to "let the
people act against the British."
The USIS office in Surabayo, on Java, has
heard that it too is to be an early target.
The Japanese ambassador in Djakarta, echoing
Tokyo, fully expects Japan to be next if, Indonesian
Communists are successful in their efforts to worsen
US-Indonesian relations.
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8. Yemen - Saudi Arabia; The Yemeni government's
control in southern Yemen is threatened by a flare-
up of sectional and tribal rivalries triggered by
revolts of army elements in two important towns.
Should additional troops be required to keep
the lid on, this could affect the current Yemeni-
Egyptian offensive in the north aimed at rolling up
royalist forces before the 5 September Arab summit
meeting; it is already meeting stronger royalist
resistance. Troop diversion might also be required
to meet royalist attacks in the east arid south--the
latter apparently mounted from British protected
Beihan.
.Cuba
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10. Berlin:
the next. VS helicopter.
to ,fly over East Berlin would be buzzed, forced'
down, or shot down. We think the latter unlikely,
but would not be surprised by an Attempt to force
one down. "
11. Ethiopia: Young officers, disgruntled over
conditions in the services and over failure to
settle by force the issues with Somalia last February,
have been planning a coup
We
think the Emperor has probably heard about this..
The last coup attempt, in December 1960, failed.?
L;..J
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12. Tanganyika-Zanzibar: Tanganyikan officials
are getting nervous about Zanzibar, over which they
have little or no control. Soviet military advisers
Chinese Communist, and possibly a few
East German, military advisers are there.
13. Haiti: as a
result of recent rebel successes, there has been
a considerable increase in antigovernment plotting.
Business, government, and military personnel ap-
parently are working together on a coordinated plan
to attack the palace and topple the Duvalier regime.
Duvalier is diverting some troops to defend
Port-au-Prince and can be expected to take drastic
repressive measures against plotting he gets wind
of.
14. Chile: Observers in Santiago still give the
edge to Christian Democrat candidate Frei over the
Communist-Socialist supported Allende in Friday's
presidential elections. Congress names the next
president on 24 October. If no candidate gets a
majority at the polls, there would be considerable
opportunity for Communist-Socialist manipulations.
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TOP SECRET
USSR: Keyhole Mission 1009, 6-13 August, dis-
closeT-i-new ICBM complex in the early stages of
construction near Orsk in the Ural mountains.
The complex has a support facility and four
single silo launch areas about five miles apart.
The launch areas resemble those recently identified
under construction at Zhangiz Tobe near. Semipalatinsk.
Both complexes, like the other 18 operational
ICBM complexes we have identified, are near main
rail lines and are rail served.
We have now identified ,a total of 14 single
silos under construction since the program began
early this year.
TOP SECRET
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