THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 1-23, OCTOBER 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959503
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: October 23, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
21 - 23 OCTOBER 1964
-TOP-5EGREI_
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1.
USSR: One week onward, the broad con-
sequences of Khrushchev's downfall seem to be
taking dim shape, but all bets should still be
hedged.
The new leaders are going to much trouble
to reassure the world that the Soviet Union's
policies will remain unchanged.
The East European satellite leaders who
hope to remain semi-independent of Moscow are
apprehensive, however. Only Zhivkov of Bul-
garia, ?a Khrushchev man, has made a strong
pledge of loyalty to the new regime. These
men know from experience the unpredictable-
ness and the dangers of Soviet succession
politics.
Already some of the evidence suggests
the beginnings of competition among the
leaders in Moscow. The military may be bid-
ding for greater influence and a bigger
budget. A struggle for power at the top may
well be shaping up.
The displacement of Khrushchev has played
into the hands of the Chinese Communists, who
will be alert to opportunities to exploit their
advantage.
All in all, the events of the past week
seem to have harmed the USSR, but the conse-
quences for the US and the West are still
very uncertain.
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2. South Vietnam: The new provisional
charter promulgated on 20 October provides
for a chief of state with modest authority
and a prime minister who will frame and
execute policy.
General Minh is expected to be chief
of state. As yet, no prime minister has
been named. The charter is supposed to
become operative on 27 October.
Khanh's intentions seem cloudy. In
talking to Ambassador Taylor on Thursday,
he appeared satisfied with the prospect of
being armed forces commander. However, he
assumed a lofty air of detachment in dis-
cussing possible incumbents for other key
slots, even those with whom he would have
to work closely, such as premier or defense
minister.
3. Cyprus: Agreement for opening the Nicosia-
Kyrenia road and for the Turkish troop rotation
has been announced. We expect a last minute
hitch, however, since the Cyprus Government
says it has "certain reservations."
Makarios, we hear, has obtained agree-
ment.from Grivas and the Greek military of-
ficers that they, will confine themselves
strictly to military matters.
(Cont'd)
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In return, the archbishop is said to have
agreed to the disarming of Greek Cypriot irreg-
ulars, most of whom favor Makarios over Grivas.
We doubt that either side will live up
to the agreement.
4. Congo: Some rebel-held areas are suffer-
ing the consequences of near-complete disrup-
tion of business and agriculture.(
In most areas, Congo Army units are
stalled, and rebel forces are holding their
own. Lack of air support for government
forces is one factor holding up operations.
Congolese aircraft have not flown com-
bat missions for a week, and Tshombe is in-
creasingly unhappy about it.
On Thursday, he sent word to Ambassador
Godley that President Kasavubu wanted to send
a special emissary to "explain the current
situation" to President Johnson. General
Mobutu, moreover, was said to be sending his
principal deputy to the US.
Godley has been trying hard to see
Tshombe to stall off these visits.
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6. Cuba-USSR: Guinea's Sekou Toure says
that Cuban President Dorticos, "speaking in
the name of the Cuban Government," had told
him in Cairo that Havana was "anxious to re-
move itself from the Communist camp, to become
nonaligned and to normalize its relationships
with the US."
Even so, Castro and his colleagues seem
wary of upsetting their present relationship
with the USSR. They are making no comments
about the shakeup in Moscow, and postcards
bearing portraits of Khrushchev and Castro
together are no longer for sale.
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7. EEC: The West Germans are casting about
in Paris for some sort of compromise on the
grain price unification problem. They have
little room for maneuver.
Although the French are now saying that
De Gaulle's broadside this week was not intended
as an ultimatum, Bonn has received it as such,
and believes that the blast has made it more
difficult for Erhard to knuckle under.
Bonn has told us that Erhard's decision
on grains would be easier to make "if the US
were also to bring pressure."
The EEC Commission also has strongly
implied that US pressure on Bonn could break
the log jam holding up the Kennedy Round.
In any case, the belief is widespread
that the future of the EEC and of US-European
relations is in hazard.
8. Mozambique: Anti-Portuguese harassing
activity is increasing.
Raids from Tanganyika by the Mozambique
Liberation Front (MLF) have created widespread
fear in the north. Communication lines are
said to have been severely damaged.
(Cont 'd)
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The MLF claims 2,000 adherents. It is
receiving support from the "liberation com-
mittee" of the OAU, probably also from the
Chinese Communists, and possibly from the
Soviets as well.
The trouble may spread to urban centers,
but we believe the Portuguese would still
be able to dominate the situation.
Tanganyikan President Nyerere has told
Ambassador Leonhart he is deeply worried lest
the Portuguese lay on retaliatory operations
across the frontier.
Bolivia: The student rioting which
erupted on Wednesday in Cochabamba has
spread to La Paz.
As of this writing, we have no word
on how Paz and Barrientos have reacted. If
the situation continues to deteriorate, Bar-
rientos might be tempted to seek a showdown.
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10. UN General Assembly: Most UN members are
apparently resigned to postponing the General
Assembly opening from the scheduled 10 November
date.
11.
The urge for postponement stems from
uncertainties created by the new govern-
ments in London and Moscow and from the
unresolved dispute on peacekeeping arrearages
owed by the USSR and France.
Gromyko has said that the Soviets would
be prepared to go along with a delay of a
"couple of weeks" if others wished this. He
was blunt, however, in saying that the Soviets
will not pay up. The French are likely to be
equally stiff.
Brazil:
rumors that left-wing elements are hatch-
ing plans to assassinate ex-president Goulart
in such a way that the blame falls on the Cas-
tello Branco government.
The scheme may look attractive to these
elements, since, if it can be pulled off, it
would simultaneously discredit the Brazilian
Government and make a martyr out of Goulart,
who has been lukewarm about their plans to
sponsor a new revolution in Brazil.
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12. Colombia: President Valencia is still
worried that his minister of war, General
Ruiz Novoa, may be on the verge of trying
a coup.
Ruiz has indeed seemed to be rounding
up support, but we have nothing definite on
what he may have in mind.
13. Communist China: With a recent contract
for 1.5 million tons from Australia, Chinese
contracts for wheat imports in 1965 now total
2.1 million tons. We expect to hear of further
purchases from Canada, Australia, and France.
14. Venezuela: Security forces have now
rounded up over, half of the 63-man FALN de-
tachment responsible for much of the spec-
tacular terrorism in Caracas, including the
kidnappings of Colonels Smolen and Chenault.
This is a setback for the FALN, but will
not end its forays.
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