THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 OCTOBER 1966

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005968560
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: October 5, 1966

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
THE PRESIDENT'S
DAILY BRIEF
5 OCTOBER 1966
23
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DAILY BRIEF
5 OCTOBER 1966
1. South Vietnam
2. Vietnam
3. Communist China
Ky has indeed acted quickly to
head off the cabinet crisis that ap-
peared to be brewing yesterday. He
requested, received, and accepted the
resignation of the northern cabinet
minister whose heavy-handed treatment
of his chief subordinate, a southerner,
started the fuss.
Ky today denied that any other
cabinet members had resigned, and told
Ambassador Lodge that the incident was
closed.
The Soviets will soon begin to sup-
ply North Vietnam with petroleum from
Vladivostok, in the Far East. They will
use 4,000-ton tankers rather than the
10-11,000 tonners that have been used to
bring oil from the Black Sea.
Use of the smaller ships will give
the Soviets greater flexibility in off-
loading at Haiphong. Since the June
bombings of the facilities there, off-
loading a large tanker has taken at
least three weeks.
The changed route will not keep ,
the Soviets from meeting Hanoi's petro-
leum requirements of about 16,000 tons
a month. Sufficient small tankers are
already in the Far East, and siphoning
off this amount of petroleum products
will not seriously deplete supplies
there.
The Chinese leaders appear nervous
over this year's harvest. We believe
they have cause for concern--there are
reports of hunger already. Today at
Annex we discuss Chinese agriculture and
the prospects for the harvest.
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4. Communist China
5. France
The Chinese were quite accommo-
dating in preliminary trade talks with
the Japanese in mid-September. The
Chinese readily agreed to pay cash for
their purchases of steel and fertilizer
and were forthcoming on prices for Chi-
nese exports.
The talks--which set guidelines
for full-scale negotiations to begin
next month--resulted in agreement to
increase 1967 trade by 20 percent over
this year. Japan is already Communist
China's largest trading partner.
The Chinese will probably be some-
what tougher when final details are
discussed. They are likely to remain
fairly cooperative, however, in keep-
ing with their campaign to expand trade
with non-Communist countries.
The French have decided to begin
independent development of a communica-
tions satellite next year. The satel-
lite is to be placed in a stationary
orbit to relay communications between
France and Africa.
It will be several years, however,
before the satellite or the necessary
launch vehicle will be ready.
Three joint working groups have
been formed under the Franco-Soviet
space collaboration agreement./
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6. NATO
7. Congo
The forthcoming trilateral talks
on offset problems are generating con-
cern among the other NATO allies.
Secretary General Brosio feels that
the US, Britain, and Germany cannot dis-
cuss balance of payments without getting
into such factors as force levels and
strategy which concern all the allies.
Similar views have been expressed by
Italy and the Netherlands--the latter
also noting that the talks may inflate
the role of Germany in NATO affairs.
Norway's defense minister fears
that consideration of troop reductions
might result in political pressure on
his government to reduce its commitments.
Mobutu continues to press for un-
conditional surrender of the 2,500
Katangan rebels who withdrew from
Kisangani (Stanleyville) ten days ago.
He appears unaware that the Katangans
are negotiating from a strong position.
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/the rebels are well armed, well
disciplined, and not impressed by the
government forces drawn up against them.
The Katangans are tired of fighting,
however, and would probably lay down
their arms if their safety were guaran-
teed by the European mercenaries.
Katangan distrust of Mobutu has
been heightened by a premature radio
announcement yesterday that they had
surrendered.
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8. Uruguay
The Uruguayan Government is expel-
ling four Soviet Embassy officials for
interference in Uruguayan labor affairs.
Our embassy, in calling the Uru-
guayan Government's attention to the
Russians' activities, urged that one
or two be expelled at a time in order
to retain leverage over the Soviet Em-
bassy. The Uruguayans were so dis-
turbed, however, that they ousted all
four at once.
Uruguay's Communist party has
been involved in a series of politi-
cally motivated strikes, including the
recent successful general strike, and
the government is extremely sensitive
on this issue.
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ANNEX
The Hungry Giant: China's Agriculture
Stumbles Again
"Do we not have a bellyful of rage?
That is magnificent. Our rage will
drive us onward."
Mao Tse-tung
Rage is a poor substitute for rice, particularly
in a land where the specter of famine lurks just be-
yond the next harvest. This year is no exception.
The winter ahead looks bleak and hungry.
Two grains--rice and wheat--form the basic
staples of the Chinese diet. The major harvest is
in the fall and the signs are not promising. Across
the plains of northern China, the wheat has been
baked by prolonged drought. South China, where most
of the rice is grown, has had floods and insect pests.
There is ample rage for all men's bellies in China
today but there is not ample food.
Agriculture in China is still essentially a
form of basic combat between a man with a hoe and
the elements. Much that is done on China's soil
today would be primitive by comparison with American
farming standards of the Revolutionary War era. A
vast population, archaic techniques, and periodic
natural disasters would strain any nation's ability
to feed itself.
The sheer mass of Chinese humanity keeps the
wolf perennially at Peking's door. Some authorities
estimate there may be close to 900 million Chinese.
The regime claims 700 million. There has been no
published census since 1953, however, and that one
was open to a good deal of questioning. The truth
probably lies between the two figures; it is doubt-
ful that even the Chinese Communist government knows
within 50 million the number of mouths to be fed.
Whatever the real population of China, the Chinese
seem to be reproducing themselves at a prodigious
rate--an estimated 17 million a year.
(Cont'd)
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ANNEX (Cont'd)
When the colossal miscalculations of the pres-
ent regime are added to this equation, the task of
feeding China becomes almost impossible.
For instance, Mao, whose credentials as a guer-
rilla chieftain are considerably more impressive
than his knowledge of farming, ordained in 1958 that
all plowing would be four and one-half feet deep.
This may be an excellent depth for a pipeline, but
it is not conducive to the growth of wheat. Pre-
sumably what Mao had in mind was turning over the
tired soil at the top but what he got was millions
of acres of sterile yellow clay.
By 1960 everything in China was going downhill
and agriculture led the way. To this day, China
has yet to bring in a grain harvest that exceeds
1957's 180 million tons. And the population has in-
creased at least 120 million since then.
Food is already scarce.
?In six major cities, Chinese are on short rations and
the situation will get worse before it gets better.
(Cont'd)
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ANNEX (Cont'd)
Not that the Chinese will starve in the mil-
lions as they did in 1960 and 1961 after the collapse
of Mao's "Great Leap Forward." But a good many will
go hungry. With wheat imports running at between
5 and 6 million tons a year and a domestic crop that
may bring in 170 million tons, China will probably
squeak through in 1967. But two years of really bad
weather, or another serious mistake in Peking, could
bring on a famine of major proportions.
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