THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 MARCH 1969

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005976679
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 20, 1969

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The President's Daily Brief
20 March 1969
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21 March.1.969
LATE NOTES FOR THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF OF
20 MARCH 1969
I. MAJOR PROBLEMS
VIETNAM
Communist-initiated activity in II Corps rose to
the highest level since early March. Most of the incidents
were indirect fire attacks against military installations.
the increase may signal
the beginning of the next phase of the offensive in II Corps.
MIDDLE EAST
The Egyptians have reiterated to Minister Bergus that
Husayn will be speaking for Nasir as well as himself during
his visit to Washington. Husayn has been authorized to
tell President Nixon that Nasir is "more than willing to
resume relations with the US," and that it is now up to
Washington to do "something." When Bergus asked if Nasir
would consider that the US had done "something" if it
assured the Egyptians of its support for Security Council
resolution 242 on the Arab-Israeli dispute, he was answered
affirmatively.
The Saudis have weighed in with a gloomy appraisal
of the Middle East situation. They told Ambassador Eilts
yesterday that Husayn's visit was the "last chance" to
prevent new hostilities.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Rifai told Ambassador Symmes
that the Jordanians and the Egyptians would be submitting
their answers to Jarring's recent questions sometime between
22 and 24 March. The answers will be "essentially" positive,
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IR ?
?ot
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but both Amman and Cairo see a need to be "accurate and
cautious" when putting something in writing and they will
not be as forthright as Jordan has been orally with Jarring.
SOVIET AFFAIRS
There is nothing significant to report.
EUROPE
There is nothing significant to report.
II. OTHER IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS
There is nothing significant to report.
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I. MAJOR PROBLEMS
VIETNAM
Evidence pointing to a new Wave of enemy action
throughout South Vietnam over the coming weekend contin-
ues to mount. Saturday night will mark the beginning
of the second month of the Communist campaign, and the
enemy may try to repeat its actions of a month ago when
more than 100 incidents of shelling and ground attacks
occurred.
/the enemy may launch extensive sapper activ-
ity in Saigon and Da Nang beginning this weekend.
There are tenuous indications that more North Viet-
namese main force elements may move into the DMZ area.
The headquarters of what is believed to be the 325th
Division located in the Dong Hoi area of North Vietnam
recently said in a message that it was about to move:
(A North Vietnamese Division normally numbers about
8,000 men.) Two units, probably advanced elements of
this division, have already been identified south of
the DMZ. Another subordinate is located just north of
the zone.
SOVIET AFFAIRS
Today's issue of Pravda carries the first Soviet
editorial commentary on the US decision to develop an
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ABM system. In it, the Soviet practice of carefully
avoiding direct criticism of the President is continued.
The article cites a cost figure of one hundred billion
dollars, an obvious attempt to present ?the case in its
most extreme form. It directs its criticism at the
Pentagon however, rather than the President. The ed-
itorial also avoids any implication that the decision
will affect possible strategic arms limitation talks
between the US and the USSR.
EUROPE
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MIDDLE EAST
There is nothing significant to report.
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II, OTHER IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS
THAILAND
believe
look at
Thanat, as well as other Thai leaders,
that the time has come for Bangkok to take a hard
post-Vietnam options to its staunchly pro-US posture.
Although far from sanguine about the possibilities, the Thai
fear that the US security commitment to Thailand may suffer
as a result of a Vietnam settlement and that it would be
prudent to act accordingly.
PERU
Velasco's government has removed the top officers of
Peru's central reserve bank and replaced them with men who
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will probably be dominated by the ministry of finance. The
ousted officials were implicated in a scandal which centered
around alleged illegal foreign exchange transactions by the
International Petroleum Company. They had been an important
moderating influence on the government, and we expect severe
economic restrictions, including tighter foreign exchange
controls, to follow their removal.
SOVIET UNION - COMMUNIST CHINA
Soviet newspapermen have told Embassy MOSCOW that an of-
ficial statement on the border situation is being prepared
which will express a willingness to discuss border demarca-
tion problems and seek a solution'. The sources added, how-
ever, that Moscow is determined to deal "seriously" with future
"provocations" along the border.
Given the present temper between the two countries, a
serious dialogue on border problems seems doubtful. Discus-
sions on border demarcation in 1964 broke down with no posi-
tive results. Both sides have blamed the other for the failure
of these talks.
To back up the idea that they are leading from strength,
Red Star, the Soviet army newspaper, published a front page
editorial today urging Soviet troops to prepare for "the final
goal, the inevitability of a rocket blow against the enemy if
he encroaches on our peaceful labor."
There is more background on the dispute in today's Annex.
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Scene of Recent Sino-Soviet Clashes
CHINA
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THE SINO-SOVIET BORDER DISPUTE
Both sides report that sporadic fire fights are con-
tinuing in the vicinity of Damansky Island (called Chen Pao
by the Chinese), although apparently there have been no seri-
ous clashes since last weekend. The Soviets are maintaining
strong patrols on the island and our most recent satellite
photography--taken on 12 March--shows the tracks of what we
presume to be Soviet vehicles.
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The Soviets this month have established something ap-
proaching possession of the island, but there is still the
question of legal ownership. Until 2 March both Peking and
Moscow seemed content to leave this, as a practical matter,
an open question. Both sides sent patrols to the island when
the river was frozen, but neither sought to establish complete
control or permanent positions. Now, of course, both are
firmly on record as claiming sovereignty over the island
and lives have been lost in support of these claims.
Of the conflicting claims, the Chinese seem to have the
better argument on both legal and geographic grounds. The
pertinent 19th century treaties refer only to the river as
the state boundary, leaving literally hundreds of islands
subject to dispute. Even if the main channel of the river
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is considered to be the boundary, constant channel shifts open
the way to argument.
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the main channel runs
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east
of the island and,
therefore,
if one accepts
the main
channel argument, the island is legally Chinese.
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A comparison of 1938 Japanese maps
and recent satellite photography shows only a few changes.
A small island has been formed off the northwest tip of
Damansky Island and the shape of the downstream end of Daman-
sky has been altered. (The Ussuri River runs from south to
north.) The position of Damansky Island in the river has
not, however, shifted perceptibly.
Normally, Damansky is completely uninhabited and evi-
dently supports no economic activity. The island has evolved
as a resuit of the deposit of sedimentary materials; con-
sequently it is low and poorly drained. Farming some 10
miles to the southeast on the Soviet side of the river is
the nearest economic activity of any consequence. The Chi-
nese side of the river in the immediate area is almost com-
pletely undeveloped. The roads and paths in the area appear
to be used only by patrolling border guards.
After the ice breaks up, usually in mid-April, the
river is used to a limited degree for navigation, principally
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by Soviet vessels. After the breakup this year, the mat-
ter of control may become academic because a good portion
of the island will probably be under water and access to
what remains will be difficult. The Soviets have already
made public reference to the flooding and the "disappear-
ance" of the island in what could be a first step toward
easing the situation.
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. ,
Top Secret
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