THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 27 AUGUST 1971
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Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
0005992828
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RIPPUB
Original Classification:
T
Document Page Count:
12
Document Creation Date:
August 14, 2016
Document Release Date:
August 24, 2016
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Publication Date:
August 27, 1971
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The President'i? Daily Brief
27 August 1971
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
27 August 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Communist China has completed the long, politically
arduous process of reforming its provincial party
apparatus, but the thorny problem of re-establishing
civilian dominance throughout the party and govern-
ment hierarchies remains unresolved. The stage would
appear to be set, however, for convening the long-
delayed National People's Congress, probably some-
tine before the end of the year. (Page 1)
Laotian Premier Souvanna's announcement of a plan
for neutralizing the Plaine des Jarres and withdraw-
ing all forces under properly controlled supervision
gives the Communists a fresh opportunity to show
whether they are interested in winding down the war
in north Laos. (Page 3)
The North Vietnamese are getting ready for their an-
nual dry season movement of supplies to the south,
this time with substantially more air defense meas-
ures than last year. (Page 4)
The Japanese may have decided to float
the yen in the near future. (Page 5)
Chinese-supported insurgents are again
northeast Burma. (Page 6)
or revalue
active in
Japan and'Communist China have agreed to double the
size of their trade offices in Tokyo and Peking.
(Page 7)
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COMMUNIST CHINA
The recent formation of four provincial party commit-
tees brings the'arduous, nine-month process of're-
constructing the provincial-level party apparatus to
a close. Analysis of the overall make-up of the com-
mittees indicates that it is heavily weighted in
favor of moderate elements, although political com-
promise between divergent interests is.stiZZ the order
of the day. The first party committees to be formed
appeared to be perfunctory endorsements of' leader-
ship' arrangements which had been hammered out during
the Cultural Revolution.. By late spring, however,
the regime began to encounter serious leadership con-
troversies in some of the remaining provinces--dis-
putes that reportedly extended into the ranks-of.the
central leadership itself.
Hard bargaining between conflicting interest groups.
resulted in the appointment of new provincial chiefs
in?a majority of these troublesome units. Although
the provincial heads who were ousted during this
process represented a wide spectrum of political af-
filiations, the majority of those dropped were
aligned with forces associated with the more radical
policies of the Cultural Revolution.
The top leadership of the new party committees fre-
quently parallels that of the provincial administra-
tive bodies set up during the Cultural Revolution,
but there are significant differences. The military,
which was already the dominant element, has clearly
strengthened its influence; the armed forces have
expanded their numerical representation in the rank-
ing positions on the new committees to well over 60
percent. Rehabilitated party veterans?including
several who were bitterly attacked during the Cul-
tural Revolution?have likewise proliferated, oc-
cupying about 30 percent of the major party posts.
Representation of "leftist" activists, often the
largest single group on the original governing
bodies, has been reduced to a single post on most
party committees; furthermore, in those provinces
which have had chronic factional violence, radical
activists have been excluded altogether.
Although the party restructuring process is now for-
mally completed, there are still many questions to
be answered. For instance, the revolutionary com-
mittees established earlier still exist and overlap
the new party committees, which have been declared
the leading bodies in the province, and it is by no
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
means certain which is more influential. Another
complicating factor is the expanded role of the mil-
itary and the resulting thorny problem of civilian
versus military control of the party structure. Un-
til the regime begins to address these problems in
an authoritative manner, the prospects appear doubt-
ful for the new party apparatus to regain its pre-
1966 image as an infallible monolith and as an es-
sentially civilian structure that "commands the gun."
For the immediate future, the stage now seems to be
set for convening the long-delayed National People's
Congress. Mao himself told Edgar Snow last fall
that it was important to get party-building well es-
tablished on correct lines before holding the con-
gress. The weight of evidence now points to the
convening of the congress before the end of the year.
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LAOS
Prime Minister Souvanna has said that if the
Communists agree to his proposal to neutralize the
Plaine des Jarres, government attacks in that area
could "easily be,ended" and all forces withdrawn un-
der "properly controlled supervision." Souvanna
took this new line in an interview with the Lao Press
Agency on the eve of his departure for a six-week
foreign vacation and visits to Thailand, France, and
the US. He did not indicate whether he would for-
ward the specifics of his neutralization and with-
drawal plan in a formal message to the Communists.
The plan has never been proposed to the Communists
and, indeed, is still in the drafting stages.
To facilitate a meeting with the Communists,
Souvanna said he was ready to send his plenipoten-
tiary representative to Khang Khay--his former neu-
tralist headquarters on the Plaine. Khang Khay, he
declared, was a "propitious" location because of the
proposed neutralization. He also took pains to as-
sure the Communists that his absence from the coun-
try would in no way hinder, any forward progress on
talks and noted that his representative would be
able to contact him at all times.
It is uncertain how--or even if--the Pathet
Lao and their mentors in Hanoi will react,
particularly because the proposal has not
yet been floated in a formal message. The
Communists have made it clear
that they envision no progress to-
ward Lao peace talks as long as yang Pao 's
forces control the Plaine des Jarres. Ear-
lier this month they withdrew their special
envoy in Vientiane for "consultations"
after accusing the government of making
"nibbling attacks" on the Plaine. The
proposal does, nevertheless, give the Com-
munists an opportunity to show whether or
not they have any interest in working to-
ward an accommodation on the war in north
Laos.
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Stung Tray
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NORTH VIETNAM
Conventional antiaircraft artillery strength
in the southern panhandle of North Vietnam has
roughly doubled since the end of July.
some 12 AAA regi-
ments are now located in the lower panhandle, in-
cluding at least five that previously had been in
the country's northern heartland. Moreover, un-
usually large quantities of AAA munitions passed
south through the Vinh area last week.
Fighter aircraft also have moved into the
southern part of the country for the first time
since May. Three MIG-21s, piloted by experienced
North Vietnamese fliers, flew to an airfield in the
upper panhandle early this week and have been con-
ducting training exercises and defensive patrols.
A few MIGs flying out of panhandle airfields this
spring attempted to shoot down slow-moving US air-
craft, but with little success.
A similar but somewhat smaller air defense
buildup took place in this sector late
last summer just before the 1970-1971 dry
season. The buildup almost certainty is
aimed at protecting Communist supply lines
running through the North Vietnam and Laos
panhandles.
In fact, Communist logistic forces seem poised
for an early start on the dry season supply push.
Recent reports from air observers indicate that
large quantities of supplies are being stockpiled
in forward areas near the Ban Karat Pass and the
western Demilitarized Zone routes in North Vietnam.
Most major routes into and within Laos are being
maintained despite rains and bombings; two new
cross-border routes are under construction as well.
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Dollar selling is heavy on the Tokyo foreign
exchange market after the Bank of Japan relaxed re-
strictions on the amount of dollars Japanese commer-
cial banks are required to hold. The Bank of Japan
purchased about $600 million yesterday and $400 mil-
lion during the first hour of trading today. The
relaxed restrictions enable commercial banks to sell
dollars, thus transferring any loss that would ac-
crue from dollar depreciation to the Bank of Japan.
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In other international economic developments
yesterday, the Council of the General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade established a study group to in-
vestigate the compatibility of the US import sur-
charge with GATT regulations. This group will re-
port to the Council by 20 September and will confer
with the International Monetary Fund to determine
the nature of US balance-of-payments difficulties.
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BURMA
Chinese-supported
Communist insurgents have become more active in
northeastern Burma. On 20 August, an army camp at
Panglong was overrun. The insurgents have mortared
the regional military garrison at Kunlong and have
seized the town of Hopang, ten miles east of Kunlong.
Burma had received the impression during
General Ne Win's visit to Peking in early
? August thatsChina regards Communist insur-
gency as an internal Burmese affair in
which it will not interfere. The revival
of activity by the Chinese-backed rebels,
however, may jolt Rangoon's optimistic
view 'that improved state ?relations will
result in a "drying up" of Chinese support
to Burmese insurgents.
Reinforcements are being sent to Kunlong,
but Burmese military reaction probably
will be restrained as long as the insur-
gents remain east of the Salween River,
an area under Communist control for two
years.
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NOTE
Japan - Communist China: Agreement has been
reached to double the size of the Japan-China trade
offices in Tokyo and Peking. Announcement of the
agreement, following conclusion of the annual, se-
cret trade negotiations in Peking, came on the eve
of the arrival in Tokyo of Wang Kuo-chuan, a prom-
inent Chinese expert on Japan/
/The timing of the an-
nouncement may be intended to tantalize the Japanese
over the prospects for increased trade and contacts
with China once Tokyo takes a more "progressive"
attitude toward Peking. The Sato government no
doubt will cite this development as evidence of its
willingness to enlarge contacts with China.
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