THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 29 AUGUST 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993916
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 29, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
/29 August 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of EO. 11652
exemption category 513(0,121.(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
29 August 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Recent articles in the North Vietnamese Army daily
suggest that a debate is going on within the leader-
ship over Hanoi's strategy in the South. (Page 1)
The Indo-Pakistani agreement signed yesterday set-
tles several problems remaining from the 1971 war
and should improve the chances for a general normal-
ization of relations in South Asia. (Page 3)
The French reportedly have agreed to sell Saudi
Arabia a number of Mirage interceptors, some of
which may wind up in Egypt. (Page 4)
On Page 5, we analyze the purposes of Egyptian Pres-
ident Sadat's recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Syria,
and Qatar.
Notes on the new Chilean cabinet, an agreement be-
tween Iraq and Turkey to build a new oil pipeline,
the grain situation in India, and French
appear on page 6.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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NORTH VIETNAH
Recent articles suggest that a debate is going
on within the North Vietnamese leadership over North
Vietnam's strategy in the South.
On August 18 and 25 the North Vietnamese Army
daily published articles by a pseudonymous author
who in the past has strongly favored an aggressive
military policy in South Vietnam. The author--whose
pen name is Chien Thang ("the victor")--was pushing
as early as the first part of 1971 for a major of-
fensive, and he published an authoritative exposi-
tion of Hanoi's war strategy on the eve of the 1972
offensive. He has not been heard from since last
September, just before the Paris talks began to bear
fruit.
1
Chien Thang's two new articles update his past
assessments of the military situation. He claims:
--that the US military withdrawal has decisively
tilted the military balance in South Vietnam
in the Communists' favor;
--that the Communists in the South now have
"all the decisive factors to win victory;"
--that North Vietnam has the ability--and by
implication the duty--to support the southern
struggle as it has in the past;
--that aid from Hanoi's Communist patrons is
far less important than the "subjective" assets
that the Vietnamese Communists already possess
in abundance; and
--that the North's "basic needs" could be taken
care of as they were in earlier phases of the
war. (He apparently is prepared to acknowledge,
however, that the reconstruction effort would
suffer if Hanoi stepped up its investment in
the southern struggle.)
Some elements of Chien Thang's line do not
differ from Hanoi's standard position.
The latter, for instance, has always
touted the Paris accords as a "victory,"
particularly because they secured the
American military withdrawal. Other North
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Vietnamese commentary, however, has not
focused so sharply on the military oppor-
tunities that Chien Thang claims to see
in the present situation. The standard
approach is to stress reconstruction in
the North and "maintaining peace" in the
South.
Chien Thang is clearly arguing a case for
intensified military pressure--a case that
probably has greatest currency in parts of
the North Vietnamese military and in the
apparatus inside South Vietnam. The exact
magnitude of the effort he is urging is
not clear; he could be advocating a major
offensive as he did in 1971, but several
references in his article to a "protracted"
struggle could indicate that he may prefer
a long-term effort at a somewhat lower
level.
In any case, the tone of the articles make
it clear that Chien Thang and his associ-
ates think the question of future strategy
is open--or at least more open than at any
other time in the last year. It seems
likely that the Politburo will meet to dis-
cuss the issues he raises when First Secre-
tary Le Duan returns from his extended
trip to the Soviet Union. He left Moscow
yesterday.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INDIA-PAKISTAN-BANGLADESH
The Indo-Pakistani agreement signed yes-
terday in New Delhi has the concurrence
of Bangladesh. It should improve the
chances for a general normalization of
relations in South Asia.
All but 195 of the 90,000 Pakistani prisoners
of war held in India since December 1971 will be
repatriated. Some 150,000 Bengalees detained in
Pakistan, including the 203 Pakistan has accused of
treason and espionage, will be exchanged for an as
yet unspecified number of Biharis now living in
Bangladesh. The 195 Pakistani prisoners that Dacca
planned to try for war crimes will remain in India,
pending negotiations between Pakistan and Bangladesh.
These prisoners may never face trial in
Bangladesh, but their future probably will
have to be resolved before Pakistan recog-
nizes Bangladesh. The Pakistanis probably
will try to persuade Bangladesh to drop
all plans to hold the trials by offering
to accept additional Biharis. Once these
issues are settled and recognition follows,
negotiations on the division of assets and
liabilities between Islamabad and Dacca
could get under way.
The agreement should also lead to an im-
provement in Indo-Pakistani relations.
Reconciliation on the subcontinent virtu-
ally ensures an improvement in relations
for India and Bangladesh with China. Chi-
nese officials have expressed Peking's
willingness to support UN membership for
Bangladesh and to normalize relations with
India once the problem of Pakistani war
prisoners is resolved.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SAUDI ARABIA - EGYPT - FRANCE
The US Interests Section in Cairo has received
a report from a Western journalist that in mid-July
France agreed to sell 38 Mirages to Saudi Arabia.
The journalist claimed that the Mirages are for the
"exclusive use" of the Egyptians and that Paris
knows this. An earlier press report from Paris,
quoting French officials, also asserted that the
Saudis were about to purchase 38 Mirages. The French
reportedly will begin delivery of the aircraft early
next year.
Saudi Arabia does not fall under the French
arms embargo against Middle East belliger-
ents, and the French have few worries about
any outcry about the transfer of Saudi
Mirages to Egypt. Paris doubtless recalls
the short-lived and ineffective protests
over the transfer of Libyan Mirages to
Egypt earlier this year. About 20 Libyan
Mirages, some of which are being flown by
Egyptians, are still in Egypt.
The Saudis may want to keep some of the
Mirages to modernize their own air force.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT - ARAB STATES
President Sadat returned Monday from a trip
to Saudi Arabia, ?Syria, and the Persian Gulf state
of Qatarr, apparently cutting the tour short to meet
with Libyan President Qadhafi, who had flown to
Cairo during Sadat's absence.
Sadat's primary objective in arranging the
trip was presumably to try to coordinate
Arab strategy for the coming nonaligned
conference, part of ?his wider goal of
forging greater Arab unity in the face of
? Moscow's interest in detente. The polit-
ical use of Arab oil and monetary resources
is part of Sadat's program for Arab self-
reliance and figured in the talks; a Cairo
radio commentary on Sadat's stay in Saudi
Arabia said that the Arabs should'use their
resources "to confront the Zionist enemy
and his sUpporters."
The implication that Sadat and Faysal have
? reached agreement on a plan for the polit-
ical use of oil is undoubtedly overdrawn.
Sadat has more prosaic uses for Saudi money
in mind; i.e., more for Egypt itself. Sim-
ilar assistance from Qatar?alsb an oil-
producer.--was probably Sadat's chief topic
of discussion the're.
In his talks with Syrian President Asad,
Sadat probably focused on his attempts to
bring Jordan back into the Arab fold, and
so reconstitute the "eastern front" against
Israel. Asad may have tried to find out
about the future of the Confederation of
Arab Republics?of Which Syria is a members.
along with Egypt and. Libya--if the other
.two countries merge.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
Chile: The three armed services and the police
each kept one ministry in yesterday's minor cabinet
reshuffle. There is no indication yet that Presi-
dent Allende made concessions to retain this mili-
tary support. His coalition parties still dominate
the cabinet 4 to 1 and control the bureaucracy.
Allende's cancellation of further negotiations with
striking truckers indicates?that he will not ease
the hard line against government opponents.
Iraq-Turkey: The two countries have agreed to
build a pipeline to carry oil from Iraq's rich
Kirkuk fields to Turkey's Mediterranean coast; com-
pletion is expected by 1977. The line is being
built primarily to facilitate Iraqi exports to free
world markets. Financing has not yet been obtained,
but a number of Western firms--including seven large
US contractors--will be invited to bid on the design
and construction. The Iraqis are planning another
pipeline that will extend their present lines from
Kirkuk south to the Persian Gulf, allowing them to
by-pass Syria if that country chooses to block
transit, as it has in the past.
India: Although New Delhi stopped buying grain
abroad early this,month because of high prices, de-
liveries of grain already purchased will be enough
to feed the people until the rice harvest in Novem-
ber. Some belt-tightening will be necessary, how-
ever, and this is likely to aggravate labor unrest
and result in food demonstrations. The government
is trying to stave off trouble by giving priority
to urban areas; shortages in the'countryside will
be offset somewhat because good monsoon rains have
increased supplies of fruits and vegetables.
France:
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Top Secret
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