THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 NOVEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993981
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 9, 1973

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800030008-6
The President's Daily Brief
9 November 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58( 11.(2).13)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
9 November 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Only minor cease-fire violations were reported in
the Middle East yesterday, while diplomatic activity
intensified in response to reports that Egypt and
Israel had accepted a US-backed peace plan. (Page 1)
Facing the possible loss of some 20 percent of Japan's
normal import requirements in December and January,
Tokyo is preparing a three-phase energy-saving effort.
(Page 3)
Tito's decision to visit Moscow this month coincides
with growing doubts among Yugoslays about the benefits
of his pro-Arab policies. (Page 4)
Peron's plans to visit the UN in December are part of
his effort to gain recognition as the foremost Latin
American spokesman. (Page 5)
Notes on
Canadian policy on oil exports to
the US, the tali of the Danish Government, and the
Chilean Government's economic program appear on
Page 6.
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Only minor exchanges of small arms and artillery
fire marred the cease-fire on the Egyptian front yes-
terday, although the Israelis continue to cite pos-
sible indicators of an Egyptian intention to resume
hostilities. A senior Israeli defense official
claimed that the Egyptian Second Army on the east
bank of the canal was removing mines in front of its
positions and camouflage nets from tanks, and that
Cairo was moving armored units closer to the Israeli
salient on the west bank. The Egyptians, for their
part, charged the Israelis with daily violations
of the cease-fire, and said that on Wednesday they
had prevented Red Cross personnel from reaching Suez
City.
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Damascus claimed to have downed one Phantom 25X1
Tel Aviv denies that
it lost any planes. This is the third alleged inci-
dent in as many days on the Syrian front, which had
been generally quiet from October 24 until last wk-
end.
The United Nations Emergency Force is encounter-
ing additional difficulties. A UN Secretariat offi-
cial has complained that Israel is placing disabling
restrictions on UNEF. Most seriously, Israel insists
that UNEF contingents from states with which it lacks
diplomatic relations cannot serve in Israeli-held ter-
ritory. Three such states are already on the force.
Also, yesterday France refused to provide air-
lift and other logistic support. The French deci-
sion, reflecting pique over the Security Council's
decision to bar its permanent members from serving
on the UNEF, will increase concern that the Soviets
will dominate the airlift. Moscow already has as-
sumed responsibility for transporting Finnish, Swedish,
and Austrian contingents to the Middle East.
(continued)
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Reports that both Egypt and Israel have accepted
a US-backed five-point plan to implement the UN cease-
fire and to proceed toward opening direct peace nego-
tiations have stirred much commentary. Israeli news-
papers say the plan calls for an eventual withdrawal
of Israeli troops "from Egypt" and the Suez Canal,
and for Cairo to withdraw from the east bank of the
canal. No Israeli official has commented directly,
but Defense Minister Dayan said Israel was "perhaps
for the first time at the opening of a true peace
settlement" with the Arabs.
The only direct comment in Egyptian media has
been to deny that Cairo has pledged to lift its block-
ade of Bab al-Mandab, although the semi-official Al
Ahram hinted that the blockade's status is involved
in preparations for an eventual peace conference.
An Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman yesterday
again insisted that Israeli withdrawal to the cease-
fire lines of October 22 remains a prerequisite to
progress toward peace; unofficial Israeli commentary
continues to deny any such Israeli obligation.
On the international front, Primy Minister Meir
hopes to repair Israel's relations with several Euro-
pean states this weekend in London, where she will
meet with European Socialist leaders. A personal
emissary of President Sadat yesterday made quick calls
on Syrian President Asad and Saudi King Faysal, and
is scheduled to make additional stops in Kuwait, Libya,
and Algeria.
The number of Soviet combatants in the Mediter-
ranean continues to decline. With the departure of
an amphibious ship into the Black Sea and five ships
into the Atlantic yesterday, 85 units remained--30
surface warships, 21 submarines, and 34 support ships.
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JAPAN
The Arabs' "oil diplomacy" has forcefully dem-
onstrated the Japanese economy's almost complete
dependence on foreign sources for energy supplies.
Japan stands to lose roughly 600,000 barrels a day
of oil imports--about 11 percent of consumption--
as a result of the initial Arab production cutback.
Further cutbacks of 5 percent per month after Novem-
ber would mean loss of some 20 percent of normal im-
port requirements during December and January.
(Nearly 45 percent of Japan's oil comes from the
Arab states, about 40 percent from Iran, and most
of the rest from Indonesia.)
Japan is in a good position to compensate for
reduced imports. Even with continuing Arab cutbacks,
normal consumption requirements could be met for
about nine months by drawing on stocks. A 10-percent
drop in consumption through rationing would stretch
the period to a year. The government is not willing
to exhaust stocks, however. Depending on how much
it is willing to draw on stocks, industrial produc-
tion could be affected sometime this winter and pri-
vate consumption even sooner.
The government is preparing a three-phase energy-
saving effort starting with the issuance of consump-
tion guidelines. The second phase would require in-
dustry to reduce fuel consumption. Finally, emer-
gency legislation would be sought to permit ration-
ing.
Meanwhile, Tokyo is seeking to regain normal
quantities of Arab oil by adopting a more pro-Arab
stance. On Tuesday, the cabinet issued a resolution
strongly urging a fast Israeli withdrawal to the
territory held before 1967.
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YUGOSLAVIA-USSR
Belgrade announced yesterday that Tito will visit
Moscow this month "at the invitation of the Soviet
party central committee." His main reason for going
presumably is to discuss the Middle East situation.
Tito will first confer with Muhammad Zayyat, Sadat's
special assistant, who will visit Belgrade within the
next few days.
Tito's decision to go to Moscow coincides with
growing doubts among Yugoslays generally about the
benefits of his pro-Arab policies, which has aligned
Yugoslavia with Soviet policy in a major international
crisis. At the same time, Belgrade's strident pro-
Arab position has emphasized its estrangement from
the US on the Middle East policy.
Tito's personal prestige remains enormous, but
the trip to the Soviet Union will not allay concern
that Yugoslavia has moved too close to Moscow. Tito
may try to counter this impression by emphasizing the
"nonaligned" and independent aspects of his policy
during his visit.
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ARGENTINA
Peron is once again trying to establish himself
as the pre-eminent spokesman for Latin America.
Peron has decided to visit the UN in December,
apparently in the hope that a meeting with President
Nixon can be arranged. Foreign Minister Vignes
strongly advocates such a meeting as a follow-up to
his own talks at the UN last month with Secretary
Kissinger. Vignes believes the stage is set for re-
ducing strains in relations, and has named a new and
well qualified ambassador to Washington. Despite
Buenos Aires' efforts to minimize differences with
the US, bilateral issues such as Argentina's pending
foreign investment laws and pressure on US subsidi-
aries to sell to Cuba remain troublesome.
Peron is also moving to forge closer links with
other Latin leaders. He has invited Bolivian Presi-
dent Banzer and Panamanian strongman Torrijos to
visit Buenos Aires this month, and reportedly wants
to go to Paraguay at the end of November to sign a
new energy treaty with President Stroessner.
This flurry of activity does not signal any
major changes in Argentina's foreign policy objec-
tives. The overtures to Bolivia and Paraguay appear
calculated to reduce the influence of Brazil, Argen-
tina's arch-rival, while Torrijos can be expected to
accept, echo, and reinforce Peron's outspoken nation-
alist views.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
Canada: Minister of Energy MacDonald has an-
nounced that Canada would stop petroleum product ex-
ports to the US--some 130,000 barrels per day--ifthe
Arabs make this a condition for continuing crude oil
shipments to eastern Canada. MacDonald stated that
Ottawa nevertheless would not cut off crude exports
to the US from western Canada even if the Arabs de-
manded it. Over the long term, however, Ottawa in-
tends to extend the Alberta-Ontario crude oil pipe-
line to Montreal; this would divert part of the 1.2
million barrels per day now exported to the US.
Denmark: Prime Minister Jorgensen resigned yes-
terday and announced that new elections will be held
on December 4. His coalition lost its one-vote ma-
jority earlier in the week when a fellow Social Demo-
crat resigned from his party. By calling elections
so soon, Jorgensen hopes to keep the defector from
organizing other dissident, middle-of-the-road So-
cial Democrats in time to run under a new party la-
bel. Another threat comes from the sudden popularity
of an anti-tax movement, which has already qualified
for the elections. The political fragmentation will
make the formation of a new government unusually com-
plicated.
Chile: The government, increasingly confident
of its ability to forestall organized violence, has
now begun to turn more attention to economic recovery
programs and their effects on the working class. Of-
ficials who recently were advising workers to do
without if they thought prices were too high are
now warning businessmen against pushing prices up.
The government may also order the payment of pre-
viously promised wage bonuses to cool the growing
discontent among workers.
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