THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 15-18 FEBRUARY 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005996843
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: February 18, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
15- 18 FEBRUARY 1964
?11011P-5-EGRZL__
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18 February 1964
Cyprus: With the UN in the act, conditions
on the islandhave simmered down for the time
being.
There are still occasional outbreaks of
fighting but no major clashes like the four-day
affair at Limassol last week.
Inter-communal tensions, of course, have ,
not abated. Greek and Turkish Cypriot fighters
face one another over the barriers at many points
throughout the island. A complicating factor is
that Greek Cypriot police seem to us to be more
interested in killing Turks than in restoring order.
Prime Minister Inonu has promised us that
Turkey will not intervene while the matter is
being considered in New York, always provided
that there is no new massacre of Turkish Cypriots.
(Cont'd)
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The Turkish military embarked a combined
service task force last Saturday. It never got
very far from the Turkish coast, but the Turks
were happy with the demonstration of their ability
to mount such an operation with discipline and
dispatch. They probably felt it was edifying to
the Greek Cypriots.
The Greeks, following the resounding victory
by Papandreou in Sunday's elections (some 175
seats in a300-seat assembly), will probably be
taking a somewhat stronger line on Cyprus. Papandreou
is something of an enigma, but we are hopeful that
he may be more of a restraining factor on Greek
Cypriot extremists than his predecessor.
The Soviets have been passing the word that
they would respond favorably to a Greek Cypriot
request for military assistance in the -event of
an attack by Turkey.
We do not feel that the Soviets would, at
the outset anyway, involve themselves in direct
military action in either Cyprus or Turkey, but
would probably confine themselves to pressure along
Turkey's border]
2. Ethiopia-Somali: The Organization for African
Unity, as expected, called for a cease-fire in the
fighting along the frontier and impaneled a commis-
sion to investigate the causes.
Addis Ababa and Mogadiscio agreed to stop
firing at noon, Sunday.
The fighting, however, continued on past the
deadline. We are not sure whether this is the
result of poor communications Or an inability to
control the troops on the line.
(Cont'd)
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While the OAU Commission may be able to effect
a ceasefire, we doubt that it will be able to deal
with the root cause--dissidence by Somali tribes-
men in the Ethiopian Ogaden.
3. Zanzibar: The Karume government, divided
and fearful, has never really been able to restore
the island to tranquility.
Since the Karume revolt-last month, large
quantities of weapons have remained on the loose
and at least six different groups of armed men
are at large.
Few of these are in any way responsive to
the government. The citizenry lives in daily
fear of new violence.
5.
Even the leftist government minister/ are
getting worried. 1
4. Tanganyika: Nigeria has agreed to Nyerere's
request for security forces to help him keep law
and order. Algeria has the request under study
and will probably agree.
Ethiopia, the third country asked, may find
it hard to spring any forces just now.
(Cont d)
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In any case, these African reinforcements
will not be arriving for several months. The
British will-remain for the interim, helping
keep things quiet and training the new Tanganyikan
army.
o/
5. Gabon: There has been yet another upheavOi
in a TBFEEr French colony. All the returns are
not yet in, but it appears to have been a revolt
by younger army officers against what they con-
sidered the over-strict rule of President Mb.
There may be some loosening of Gabon's ties
with France as a result.
South Vietnam: The Viet Cong's week-long
ceasefire in connection with lunar New Year's
ended Monday night.
If, as we suspect, the Viet Cong declare
these annual ceasefires to demonstrate that they
call ?the tune on the war, then there should be
a quick resumption of guerrilla activity.
Khanh's government, which has seemed to us
to offer the promise of stronger leadership than
its predecessor, is still struggling to get its
feet on .firm ground.
(Cont'd)
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He has several plans, still on the drawing
boards, to make his regime more attractive and
effective at the local level. Failure to move
in this direction was one of the real shortcomings
of the Diem regime.
Communist terrorism against Americans, a sporadic
problem over the past several years, has risen
steeply in the last few weeks. This could be the
signal for a new campaign to cause doubts about
Saigon's security arrangements in the American
community and weaken its resolve.
General Khanh has promised to bring every
security asset he has to bear on the problem, but,
,even sot Lodge thinks we must expect further inci-
dents.
7. Laos: The Pathet Lao, bolstered by North
Vietnamese troops, have been keeping the pressure
on neutralist and rightist positions in widely-
separated parts of Laos.
In the Plaine des Jarres, there have been
exchanges of artillery fire and non-Communist
forces have lost some ground.
In South-Central Laos the Communists are
seeping slowly toward the Mekong River. Communist
movements in this area are making the Thais, just
across the rivers nervous.
Thailand has put its forces along the frontier 50X1
and is moving up reinforcements.
(COnt'd)
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We give the Communists the ability to push
on to the river at any time, but are not con-
vinced that they intend to do so just now.
8. Indonesia-Malaysia: Further talks among
the Indonesian, Malaysian and Philippine foreign
ministers now look pretty remote.
Malaysia's prime minister has just declared
that such talks would be pointless until Indonesian
forces are removed from Malaysian soil.
9.
He charged Indonesia with running supplies
and .reinfOrdeMents to these gu?illas
North Vietnam - France: Hanoi's minister of
foreign affairs, noting with delight French recog-
nition of Communist China, suggested
that it was time
for normal diplomatic relations between Paris and
Hanoi.
10. North Vietnam: Hanoi has seemed dissatisfied
with the proforma expressions of Soviet support
which followed the Moscow visit of several high-
ranking Vietnamese Communists.
(Cont'd)
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11.
It says it would have liked to see Soviet
pledges translated into "practical deeds." We
do not know just what Hanoi has in mind; perhaps
it would like to hear a little more rocket rattling
out of Moscow on the theory that this deters the
US.
USSR-US: Moscow has been kicking up an
unusual fussabout the Nosenko defection and is
even hinting that it could lead to its withdrawal
from the Geneva disarmament talks.
? We doubt MoScow would find the case a credible
or prudent pretext for breaking off.
12. Canada-USSR: The head of the Canadian wheat
board is in Moscow, probably for preliminary talks
about further Soviet purchases.
Weather has been poor in Soviet winter wheat
areas and the crop probably will be no better than
last year's poor crop. Moscow may feel the need
to prepare for such a contingency.
The Soviets know they have bought all the ?
wheat--6.8 million tons--that Canada can ship before
July. Current talks, therefore, would involve
futures for the second half of the year.
(Conted)
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13. USSR: Although nothing happened over the
weekeria7Thigns still point to another Soviet space
spectacular soon.
? We do not have any clear idea of what is in
the works, but fday would be a favorable day for
a lunar probe.
14. East Europe: Ulbricht, one of the few remain-
ing relics of the Stalinist era, has been brooding
for many months about the tendencies toward liber-
alization of some of his fraternal East European
neighbors.
His displeasure burst into the open last week
at an East German party meeting when these tenden-
cies were publicly and officially criticized.
Intemperate criticism of this sort has generally
been reserved for the heretic Chinese.
Such outbursts of course contain implicit
criticism of the Soviets for allowing the seeds of
post-Stanlinist degeneration to spread, thus adding
to Ulbricht's problems of keeping order in East
Germany.
(Cont 'd)
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15. Cuba: Cuba to contest the jurisdiction
of FlUirraa in the case of the Cuban fishermen.
16. Mexico: We have heard that Lopez Mateos and
Nasir will be exchanging visits later in the year.
es-I..
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