THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 12 AUGUST 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007789
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 12, 1974

N, 4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1 Ai
The President's Daily Brief
August 12, 1974
5
25X1
Top 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
August 12, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The intelligence community has assessed recent
fairly high-level communist military activity in
South Vietnam and concluded that current evidence
does not point to an overall strategy change. The
North Vietnamese are not expected to attempt an
all-out, countrywide offensive through the end of
the year. (Page 1)
On the current military scene in South Vietnam,
fighting eased in the northern part of the country
over the weekend. Communist attacks continued in
the central highlands and there has been new activ-
ity in the area north of Saigon. (Page 2)
Conference sessions over Cyprus this weekend were
marked by long delays and a temporary Turkish walk-
out, but they apparently produced agreement on the
exchange of prisoners and the evacuation of Turkish
Cypriot enclaves by Greek Cypriot forces. Leaders
on both sides said today's session would be "criti-
cal." (Page 3)
Libyan officials are facilitating a calm and orderly
withdrawal of Egyptian personnel, if only to prevent
a panicky exodus of the entire Egyptian community.
Many of Libya's institutions are dependent on pro-
fessional and technical personnel from Egypt.
(Page 5)
Intensified Soviet interest in South Yeman and the
recent Soviet-Somali friendship treaty underscore
Moscow's eagerness to expand its foothold in the
strategic Gulf of Aden region. (Page 6)
Six key problems confronting the US on the inter-
national scene have been selected for brief dis-
cussion at Annex.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19: CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
104
?16
?14
Tonle
Sap
?12
?10
THAILAND
Gulf of
Thailand
104
556364 8-74 CIA
06
108
NORTH
VIETNAM
Demilitarized Zone
fr4fir-1
QUANG TRI
LAOS
CAMBODIA
Ate/rang
AMEN
PHONG
CHAU
DOC
GIANG
KIEN
GUANO
OEC
BINH
LONG
BINH
DUON
HAU
UGH'
KIEN
TUONG
PHONG
DINH
CHUONG
TN ION
AN
XUYEN
EN HOA
LONG
VINH
BINH
BA %OVEN
BAC LIE
MR 4
196
nt,?
THUA THIEN-jn,
QUANG NAM
QUANG TIN
QUANG
NGAI
KONTUNI
CENTRAL
"HIGHLAND
.Pleiku
PHUOI)C
LONG
d
NI
IG
DIN
LONG
KHANH
PHUOC
TUY
PLEIKU
Prei Me
OAR LAC
QUANG
DUG
LAM DOUG
BINH
TUY
R3
PHU
BON
TUYEN
DUG
THIJAN
Capital Special Zone
198
MR I
BINH
DINH
C24
pHU
YEN
KHANH
HOA
MINH
THUAN
.'9MVIAAN H
110
MR 2
South
China
Sea
SOUTH VIETNAM
190
MILES
16--
14-
12-
10-
c,0 ?-
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ASSESSMENT OF THE MILITARY SITUATION IN VIETNAM
A fairly high level of communist military ac-
tivity in South Vietnam over the past month has been
evaluated by the intelligence community.
7-We do not believe that current .evidence por-
tends an, overall strategy change, and we do not
expect the North Vietnamese to attempt an all-
out, countrywide offensive through the end of
the ,year.
--The communists, nevertheless, have been re-
building their military forces in both'North
and South Vietnam since the Vietnam settlement
agreement of January 1973.
--They clearly are preparing to return to large-
scale warfare at some time in the future and
now have the capability of launching a major
or all-out offensive on relatively short no-
tice--several weeks or-so.
--Developments over the past few months have
placed South -Vietnam in a more:vulnerable po-
sition. If the North Vietnamese came to be-.
lieve.that the battlefield. situation had
turned in their favor or that the VS was no
longer-willing to come to Saigon'S defense,
they might.be tempted to undertake heavier
military actions and take greater risks to
make major gains in South Vietnam.
1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
VIET1AN
On the current military scene in South Vietnam,
fighting eased in the northern part of the country
over the weekend. Communist attacks continued in the
central highlands and new activity is taking place
in the area north of Saigon.
No significant ground action developed in Quang
Nam Province, which has been the focal point of heavy
communist attacks since mid-July. The communists
did maintain pressure against South Vietnamese terri-
torial forces and outposts in the adjacent provinces
of Quang Ngai and Quang Tin.
In the central highlands, communist forces kept
up intense pressure against the ranger camp at Plei
Me and a number of other South Vietnamese fire bases
west of Pleiku city. According to intercepted mes-
sages, the North Vietnamese 320th Division--the
major communist infantry unit in Pleiku Province--is
preparing for further action.
Nearer Saigon, communist forces this weekend
launched at least 30 122-mm. rockets against Bien
Hoa air base. Casualties and damage were light.
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS
Geneva conference sessions this weekend were
marred by long delays and a temporary Turkish walk-
out, but they apparently produced agreement on the
exchange of prisoners and the evacuation of Turkish
Cypriot enclaves by Greek Cypriot forces. Although
there seemed to be little progress in solving con-
stitutional issues, Greek and Turkish Cypriot lead-
ers yesterday declared that there was "room for fur-
ther contact and negotiation." They said today's
session would be "critical."
At a stormy session on Saturday evening, Turk-
ish Cypriot representative Denktash officially in-
troduced Turkish demands for abandonment of the
1960 Cyprus constitution, geographical separation
of the two communities, and complete local autonomy.
Greek Cypriot representative Clerides insisted that
the 1960 constitution be retained, and rejected the
concept of geographical separation, but he did agree
to local autonomy for Turkish Cypriots.
Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit has told the US
ambassador that the principles of geographic separa-
tion and of a sovereign independent state are non-
negotiable. He said that the form of the federal
administration and the size of the Turkish sector,
however, are negotiable. The Turks have publicly
demanded 30 percent of the territory of the island
for their communities.
The leaders of the two communities were prob-
ably somewhat more flexible in their private dis-
cussions. Speaking to US Assistant Secretary of
State Hartman earlier, Clerides had said he would
tell Denktash that he would consider the concept
of a completely autonomous Turkish Cypriot central
authority exercising jurisdiction over all Turkish
Cypriot communities.
Britain halted a scheduled withdrawal of troops
and planes from its Cyprus bases on Saturday after
Turkish officials warned of new fighting unless
there was progress at the talks. Greek Cypriot na-
tional guard forces began evacuating Turkish Cyp-
riot enclaves Sunday, and plans were under way to
begin releasing prisoners. No significant fighting
was reported in Cyprus for the third consecutive
day.
(continued)
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19: CIA-RDP-79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
?
Top military and political leaders met in Athens
and Ankara yesterday, probably to draw up contin-
gency plans in the event of a deadlock in the talks.
According to Athens radio, Greek leaders decided to
transfer some military units away from the capital
to strengthen other units. Some of these may be
bound for islands in the Aegean, where they would be
in a better position to react to renewed Turkish
military action on Cyprus.
4
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LIBYA-EGYPT
Libyan officials are facilitating a calm and
orderly withdrawal of Egyptian personnel, if only to
prevent a panicky exodus of the entire Egyptian com-
munity. Tripoli apparently has accepted an agree-
ment with Cairo to halt provocative press exchanges
and has so far reported the withdrawal in a straight-
forward fashion. US officials in Tripoli are con-
cerned that when Libya's reaction finally emerges,
President Qadhafi may accuse the US of at least
collaborating with, if not prompting, Egypt's Presi-
dent Sadat to move against his neighbor.
Egypt's withdrawal will include all armed forces
and advisory personnel
The Egyptian charge in Tripoli
says that some 2,000 military men will depart, a
figure in line with US estimates of the size of the
Egyptian military mission.
Egyptian civilians working in Libya will re-
main, but teachers, who virtually run the Libyan
educational system, will go home when their con-
tracts expire, and the contracts are being shortened.
Between 150,000 and 200,000 Egyptians hold jobs
in Libya. Most are laborers hired by Egyptian con-
tractors. In addition to the important teachers,
there are physicians and medical support personnel
as well as other professionals and technicians who
hold key posts in almost every Libyan ministry.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Red
\NI ),Saudi Arabia
P 4 '
Sea
r- ?
---- North
f;kY epen
/("/(Sana)
Sana I'
South
Yemen
r''(Aden),
I ,
/-`1Aden
406./44,,,dea Gulf of Aden
-Djibouti
--- , French Territory
.4:.fidfthe Afars and Issas
, c
il
."
t .) \__
.,?' s_.',""'".--
ijAudis Ababa- , ?
/
II it Ethiopia 'if.
- /
?
4/
1_ 0
i'
V
C
0 `
' \ Kenya
11?1 /
c)
. * -
) L:
?Berbera'' '
4
Somalia
,?/
afet Airfieldt.0 a, le U,e'n
ogadiscio
Tanzania
Alt
,DPemba
Zanzibar
Dar es Salaam
Miles
200
Socotra
17,7?Yemen (Aden)
Indian
Ocean
556366 8-74
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RD-P79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR - SOUTH YUEN - SOJALIA
Intensified Soviet interest in South Yemen and
the recent Soviet-Somali friendship treaty underscore
Moscow's concern to maintain and expand its foothold
in the strategic Gulf of Aden region at the southern
tip of the Arabian peninsula.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
? 25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19: CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RD-P79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
PROBLEMS AND ISSUES ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE
Of all the international problems and issues
now facing the United States, six are of a particu-
larly high order of importance.
--The Soviet-US Relationship
The future direction of this relationship--
whether we have? a world at peace or at war--
will inevitably be marked by probing. Both
sides will want to ascertain whether accept-
able balances can be struck in strategic arms
competition and in economic relationships, and
whether safeguards can be devised to prevent
a dangerous escalation of any conflict or con-
frontation between the superpowers' third-
party clients and allies.
--,The Strategic Balance_
The USSR is embarked on a major modernization
of its strategic .offensive forces, particularly.
ICBMs. The Soviet aim is probably to achieve
and maintain equality with the US, but it will
take advantage of any opportunity to gain a
politically useful margin of superiority. By
:the early 1980s, the Soviets will probably pass
the US .in numbers of missile warheads and in-
crease their lead in certain other measures .of.
strategic power. They will be able tapose a
major threat to the survival of our Minuteman
force. But they will not surpass the US in
overall strategic power and?owing in part to
weaknesses in Soviet antisubmarine warfare and
air defense--they will .not be able to neutral-
ize our strategic deterrent.
--The Arab-Israeli Conflict
This deep-seated historically, rooted conflict
is probably the most complex and difficult
re-
gional problem the US faces today. Should any
of the tense and touchy parties involved come to
think that the current peace settlement effort
is faltering, we could swiftly be faced with
the prospect of a fourth round of war in the
A-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
A
X
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Middle East. As the third round?October. 1973--
illustrated, when Arab-Israeli fighting breaks
out, the US and USSR are inevitably pushed to-
ward confrontation because of the importance
of the area and each superpower's network of
interests and relationships in it.
--Adjusting to Higher Oil Prices
Without careful and cooperative actions by the
governments of the major world economies, the
abrupt increase in the price of oil occasioned
by recent Arab actions may cause a major slow-
down in the growth of output in the oil-con-
suming countries, an acceleration of the world-
wide rate of inflation, disruption of interna-
tional and national credit markets.. and sig-
nificant dislocations in the pattern and level
of world trade. The major problems facing gov-
ernment leadership throughout the developed
world are:
--achieving a reduction in the price of oil;
--securing agreement among major oilconsuming.
nations ? about how. the burden. of. oil
prices is to be divided;
--insuring that. the international credit market .
remains sufficiently strong to. finance the bulk. .
of the trade deficits. of the oil-importing
countries; and
--devising some means of financing the oil-
related deficits of those less developed na-
tions that have exhausted their capacity to
borrow from existing credit institutions.
--Cyprus
Tensions and discord between Christian Greeks
and Muslim Turks have inflamed hatreds and
caused wars in the eastern Mediterranean for
over four centuries. These stresses have now
flared sharply on Cyprus. Despite improvements
during the past few weeks, the Cyprus situation
is still fragile and contains the seeds of armed
A-2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
conflict between two members of NATO,. Greece and
Turkey--a conflict in which the Soviets would
be sorely tempted to meddle. Any such Soviet
meddling could initiate a chain reaction that
could easily result in a grave US-Soviet con-
frontation.
--Vietnam
Despite the negotiated settlement achieved in
January 1973, the Vietnamese Communist Party
has not abandoned its goal of acquiring .politi-
cal power in South Vietnam or its willingness
to use armed force to that end. Both Vietnam-.
ese sides have violated the 1973 accords and
the war in Vietnam continues, albeit at a re-
duced scale and without direct US participa-
tion. There is a continuing risk that at some
point over the next year or so--perhaps in the
near term, if. Hanoi construes US. political de-
velopments as .precluding .a forceful US response--
the North Vietnamese will escalate the current
level of military pressure into a major, all-
out offensive.
Of the above six problems, the first four are
what might be called continuing. The fifth (Cyprus)
is easing but still contains explosive potential.
The sixth (Vietnam) is latent--from a US perspec-
tive--but could easily heat up and confront the US
with crucial and difficult choices.
This list of six obviously does not exhaust
the catalogue of .major issues currently. or poten-
tially confronting the US government on the interna-
tional scene. They are .flagged because of their
actual or potential impact on vital BS interests,
and because they could force a decision on the de-
gree of US involvement.
Fuller studies on these problems and on other
significant, if less pressing, issues are available
to you separately.
A-3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1
\
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010037-1