THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 31 OCTOBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007856
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 31, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010033-4
The President's Daily Brief
October 31, 1974
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010033-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010033-4
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 511( I ).(2).(3)
declassified on131 on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 31, 1974'
Table ofContents
Middle East: If the current diplomatic impasse is
not resolved within the next few weeks, the
risk of renewed warfare will increase sharply.
(Page 1)
South Vietnam: Replacement of three regional com-
manders is intended to deflate anticipated
antigovernment demonstrations and dampen ris-
ing political opposition. (Page 2)
USSR - West Germany: Brezhnev and Schmidt have
expressed determination to continue the rela-
tionship established in the Brandt era.
(Page 3)
France: Steps are under way to hold a conference
early next year of oil-producing and oil-con-
suming countries and developing countries.
(Page 4)
Copper: Exporting countries are debating ways to
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USSR-China:
(Page 6)
Notes: China; South Africa
Peru Page 8)
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MIDDLE EAST
The following is our preliminary
assessment of the situation in the wake
of the Rabat summit.
The agreement at the Arab summit to endorse
establishment of an independent Palestinian authority
on the West Bank under the leadership of the Pales-
tine Liberation Organization has raised additional
obstacles to progress in Middle East negotiations
and has increased tensions in the area. If the
current diplomatic impasse is not resolved within
the next few weeks, the risk of renewed warfare will
increase sharply. Arab and Israeli forces are main-
taining a state of readiness which would permit the
initiation of major offensive action. We continue
to believe that the most dangerous threat to the
cease-fire is on the Golan Heights, where a hasty
decision by either side could result in hostilities
with no further warning.
We are looking carefully for any indications
of hostile intent on the part of either side.
At least 20 Israeli aircraft struck what appear
to have been fedayeen targets in southeastern Lebanon
yesterday, the first such attacks in over a month.
The fedayeen have been active in this area in recent
days, and the air strikes probably were aimed at
curbing this activity.
Early this morning, a squadron of Israeli gun-
boats bombarded a Palestinian refugee camp in south-
ern Lebanon. The Israeli Military Command stated
that the raid was in reprisal for an infiltration
attempt 24 hours earlier.
The Lebanese army reported that it had driven
off an Israeli ground patrol in the area just hours
before the naval raid.
In a press conference on his return from Rabat
yesterday, President Sadat seemed to deny that
Egypt had ever considered further disengagement in
the Sinai as the next step in negotiations with
Israel and said "withdrawal must be on all fronts."
Sadat insisted, however, that the decisions of the
Arab summit had not impaired Egypt's freedom of
action.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
The immediate aim of the replace-
ment of three of President Thieu's four
regional commanders yesterday is to de-
flate the antigovernment demonstrations
that are being organized for South Viet-
nam's National Day on November 1. The
longer range intent is to dampen rising
political opposition to his administra-
tion. Thieu's strong action suggests
concern that the corruption issue could
serve as the catalyst for growing polit-
ical ferment.
The three new commanders have no records of
illegal activity against them. Two of them have
reputations as excellent field commanders. The new
commander of the area around Saigon, however, appar-
ently was selected for political reliability rather
than for combat expertise. He has held sensitive
government positions in the Defense Ministry and
headed South Vietnam's delegation to the Four Power
Joint Military Commission established in Saigon
under the 1973 cease-fire agreement.
Three new division, commanders have also been
announced and other changes probably can be ex-
pected. Press reports that several more cabinet
ministers have resigned cannot be confirmed, accord-
ing to the US embassy in Saigon.
Catholic anticorruption groups last night
staged a torchlight parade in Saigon. Press reports
indicate that a number of persons were injured as
police attempted to prevent further demonstrations.
Police are said to have sealed off the downtown area
and imposed a 24-hour curfew. Earlier yesterday,
police raided the Saigon press club and arrested
some 50 persons preparing a demonstration against
censorship.
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USSR - WEST GERMANY
Moscow and Bonn appear satisfied
with results of the meeting between Gen-
eral Secretary Brezhnev and Chancellor
Schmidt. West German officials say that
both leaders expressed determination to
continUe the relationship established in
the Brandt era.
The focus of the talks was on economic matters.
Brezhnev suggested cooperation on long-term projects,
some to run 20 years or more. Schmidt expressed
interest in expanding trade and economic cooperation,
but refused government credits to the USSR./
The question of West Berlin came up several times.
Initially the Soviets insisted they would tolerate
no infringement of the Quadripartite Agreement. To-
ward the end of the visit, however, they agreed to
procedures that will allow residents of West Berlin
to participate in bilateral exchanges between the
USSR and West Germany.
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FRANCE
French diplomats are following up
on President Giscard's proposal for a
conference early next year of selected
oil-producing, oil-importing, and de-
veloping countries.
The French have formally invited the UK to par-
ticipate in a preparatory meeting before a full con-
ference. Although London has not yet responded,
and seeks an early exchange of views with Washington
on the French proposal, a top-level Foreign Office
official has said that Paris' bid is "not something
the UK can oppose."
The West German government has publicly an-
nounced that it welcomes the French initiative for
a conference. Bonn presumably would attend a pre-
liminary meeting as it has stressed that a confer-
ence such as France proposes must be carefully pre-
pared. The Germans also welcomed the French deci-
sion not to block establishment of the international
energy program in the OECD, and Bonn presumably will
continue its efforts to persuade Paris to associate
with this program.
West Germany's attitude, the US embassy notes,
should be seen as part of Chancellor Schmidt's at-
tempt to bolster Giscard's position vis-a-vis his
coalition partners. Schmidt believes that the EC
and the world economy will benefit from Giscard's
cautious efforts gradually to shift French policies
away from traditional Gaullist positions.
Tokyo has not yet responded to the French in-
vitation.
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COPPER
Copper-exporting countries are de-
bating ways to boost world copper prices,
which have plunged 60 percent in the
past six months to a current low of about
60 cents a pound on the London Metal Ex-
change.
The steering committee of the Copper Producers
Group comprises the governments of Chile, Zambia,
Zaire, and Peru, as well as private copper companies
in Canada, Australia, the Philippines, and Papua New
Guinea. The committee agreed at meetings this month
to reduce the amount of copper available for export
by 150,000 tons, or 9 percent, over a six-month
period beginning November 1, subject to approval by
the four member governments. These four countries
account for 60 percent of world net exports of copper,
and the producers group represents nearly all world
net exports.
Final decision on the new proposal reportedly
is to be made next month, when the four governments
will hold a ministerial-level meeting in Paris.
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USSR?CHINA
(continued)
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NOTES
China: Peking appears to have accepted quietly
the announcement of your coming meeting with General
Secretary Brezhnev in Vladivostok, despite the fact
that this summit will be held not far from the Sino-
Soviet border. ? As yet, Peking has issued no public
comment on the meeting. If past patterns are fol-
lowed, the Chinese will give the summit only minimal
coverage.
South Africa
Peru:
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Top Secret
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