THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 17 MAY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014800
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 17, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
May 17, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. I 1652
exemption category 5B( I ),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
May 17, 1975
Table of Contents
Laos: The Pathet Lao reportedly are planning to
foment large-scale demonstrations in Vientiane
over the weekend against both the US and right-
ist remnants of the coalition government.
(Page 1)
Thailand-US: Despite highly emotional demands for
reprisals, the Thai government is moving cau-
tiously to preserve its ties with the US.
(Page 3)
Vietnam: Victory celebrations in Saigon have pro-
vided a few clues as to Hanoi's plans for the
South. (Page 5)
Saudi Arabia: The Saudis have sharply cut their
estimate of oil production
five years. (Page 7)
Nationalist China:
over the next
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Portugal: The new unitary labor law has encouraged
the Socialists to challenge the Communists for
control of the labor confederation. (Page 10)
Notes: Syria-Iraq; Romania (Page 11)
At Annex Israeli and Arab concern over
what each perceives as ominous moves by the
other.
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Udornk
)TH AI
Predominantly Comrrist-controlled area,
Penury 1 3 ceasefire
0 MILES 100 7
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LAOS
The Pathet Lao reportedly are planning
to foment large-scale demonstrations in
Vientiane over the weekend against both
the US and rightist remnants of the coali-
tion government. The protests may culmi-
nate in a "mass rally" on Monday--Ho Chi
Minh's birthday.
A senior Pathet Lao coalition official has been
attempting to persuade a number of non-communist
groups to participate in the demonstrations. He has
made a strong pitch to leaders of the progressive
neutralist "Young Idea's Party," the most active
non-communist political party in Laos. The party is
particularly influential outside urban areas. The
Pathet Lao official has promised to assist with
transportation and funds in order to get the party
to bring large numbers of villagers into Vientiane
for the rallies.
The Pathet Lao are also agitating among students,
war veterans, low-level civil servants, and other
non-communist urbanites.
in addition to spreading "demonstration money" around
to potential participants, some 100 Pathet Lao plain-
clothes cadre will be on hand to "monitor" the ac-
tivities ?of the protesters.
At the same time, the Pathet Lao are strengthen-
ing their securit forces in the Lao ca ital.
-
transport aircraft earlier this week fer-
ried some 140 Pathet Lao combat troops from the Plaine
des Jarres in northern Laos to Vientiane.
Vientiane was generally calm yesterday, except
for an orderly Pathet Lao - inspired demonstration
by several hundred officers and men of the non-
communist Royal Lao Air Force at the capital's sub-
urban airport. The demonstrators demanded the ouster
of the air force's rightist commander, General Boua-
thong, and a number of other senior conservative
officers.
(continued)
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Little information is available on the situa-
tion in major non-communist urban areas outside of
Vientiane. An uneasy calm apparently prevails in
the royal capital of Luang Prabang and in the south-
ern city of Pakse. The situation in Thakhek, trou-
bled by anti-rightist demonstrations since May 15,
is unknown.
In Savannakhet, the three USAID officials seized
by demonstrators on May 14 remain under "house arrest"
in their private residences. Neutralist Interior
Minister Pheng Phongsavan and his Pathet Lao coali-
tion deputy were scheduled to fly to Savannakhet yes-
terday to negotiate the protesters' demands and to
secure the Americans' release. The demonstration at
Vientiane's airport prevented their departure, which
is now set for today.
Meanwhile, civil disturbances were reported
for the first time yesterday in yet another rightist
center, the district town of Kengkok, some 20 miles
east of Savannakhet.
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THAILAND-US
Despite highly emotional demands
for reprisals by the Bangkok press and
various pressure groups, the Khukrit
government is moving cautiously to try
to preserve its ties with the US.
In a press conference on May 16, Prime Minister
Khukrit announced that Thailand was:
--presenting a protest note to Washington ex-
pressing "disquiet" that the US had acted with
"contempt" toward a friend.
--recalling the Thai ambassador to the US for
consultations.
--undertaking a review of all existing agree-
ments it has with the US.
The announcement clearly reflects an effort by
Khukrit to minimize the impact of the Mayaguez in-
cident on US-Thai relations. Khukrit had been under
public pressure to expel a senior US official, re-
fuse the credentials of newly-arrived US Ambassador
Whitehouse, or order the immediate withdrawal of all
US forces in Thailand.
Khukrit told reporters that in the review of
US-Thai agreements, consideration will be given to
strengthening Thai government control over US ac-
tivities at air bases in Thailand as well as to ex-
pediting the withdrawal of the remaining US forces.
Khukrit implied, however, that his government would
not be stampeded into making a rash decision; he
said that a US force withdrawal could not be com-
pleted quickly, and that the "convenience" of both
the US and Thailand must be considered. In an earl-
ier statement, Foreign Minister Chatchai said that
any review of US-Thai relations "must be done in a
friendly manner."
Khukrit's announcement will buy time for him
to assess the public mood before deciding what ad-
ditional steps may be necessary to protect his polit-
ical position. Bangkok is outwardly calm, and dem-
onstrations yesterday were confined to two small,
(continued)
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peaceful protests in front of the US embassy. Stu-
dent leaders are promising a large rally today, but
the turnout may be far less than they would like be-
cause the universities are on vacation.
the Thai
foreign ministry is recommending that Khukrit travel
to the US soon to discuss the future of US-Thai re-
lations The ministry interprets recent US
official statements and the handling of the Mayaguez
incident as indications that Washington no longer
values its relationship with Thailand and believes
that direct talks with US leaders are the only ef-
fective way to get a clear reading of US intentions.
While not ruling out the suggestion, Khukrit indi-
cated that it would be difficult for him to leave
Thailand at this time.
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VIETNAM
Victory celebrations under way in
Saigon have provided a few clues as to
Hanoi's political plans for the South.
Pham Hung, a member of the North Vietnamese
Politburo and Hanoi's senior official in the South
since he assumed command of COSVN in 1967, was
listed first among the southern dignitaries wel-
coming a North Vietnamese delegation to the cere-
monies. He was identified as a member of the central
committee of the Vietnam Workers' Party, "secretary
of the South Vietnam party organization," and "polit-
ical commissar of the South Vietnam PLAF Command."
This is the first time in several years that
Hung has been identified publicly. There had been
some speculation that he had either been killed or
had fallen out of favor with the Hanoi regime. He
probably still retains his other hat as North Viet-
nam's first deputy premier, and his appearance in
Saigon indicates that Hanoi intends to keep direct
control over the southern party, government, and
military apparatus.
Behind Hung, Nguyen Huu Tho--who gave the key-
note address--emerges as the next man in the lineup
as head of the National Front for the Liberation of
South Vietnam. Tho apparently will continue to head
the Front--or something closely resembling it--and
probably will be in charge of forming the adminis-
trative apparatus.
Huynh Tan Phat, president of the Provisional
Revolutionary Government (PRG), also delivered a
major address; this suggests that the PRG will re-
main in business for the time being and serve as
the "legal" entity with which foreign governments
will establish diplomatic relations. In this regard,
communist spokesmen at the ceremonies welcomed im-
mediate recognition of the PRG by foreign capitals.
Nguyen Huu Tho in fact stated that diplomatic rela-
tions between the PRG and the US would be acceptable,
but added that the US would have to "fulfill its ob-
ligations under the Paris Agreement." This formula-
tion probably means the communists would demand cer-
tain tough conditions, including the provision of
US economic assistance.
(continued)
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The communists thus appear to be on a "two-
governments, one-policy" track. Remarks at the
ceremonies suggest that Vietnam already is consid-
ered one country but that, prior to official reuni-
fication, Hanoi is thinking of an interim period to
secure firm administrative and political control in
the South. North Vietnamese party chief Le Duan,
for example, called on the South to develop "a sound
and progressive national culture," and also stated
that cadre in the North should "step up socialist
construction," while people in the South should "unite
and build a splendid democratic national regime."
Ceremonies celebrating the victory in South
Vietnam will continue in Saigon and Hanoi through
Saturday. On Monday, May 19, the communists will
celebrate the birthday of Ho Chi Minh, and it is
possible that during those festivities additional
information will be provided on the new government
in the South.
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SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia has sharply cut its
estimate of oil production I
years.
over the next five
The Central Planning Organization now, concludes
that only. 2.7 million barrels per day will be re-
quired--a 1.8-million barrel per day drop from the
previous estimate, this new Saudi
figure is a good estimate of what the Saudis will
need to produce.
Actual Saudi production during the next five
years, however, will almost certainly be higher.
Saudi production has already fallen
to 5.7 million barrels per day, down from 9.1 million
barrels per day last October. Most other OPEC states
are now trying to increase output, and the Saudis may
take some small additional cuts this summer to accom-
modate them. Large cuts--as might seem justified by
the Central Planning Organization's study--are ex-
tremely unlikely.
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NATIONALIST CHINA
(continued)
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PORTUGAL
The long-awaited Portuguese unitary
labor law was officially published this
week and has encouraged the Socialists,
who believe that they will be able to
challenge the Communists' control of the
newly legalized labor confederation.
Instead of assuring the Communists de facto
control of labor, the new law gives the Socialists
the opportunity to gain some leadership positions.
the Socialists be-
lieve they have made substantial inroads into sev-
eral unions and may be able to mount a serious chal-
lenge to the Communists.
To carry out their plans in the labor sector,
however, the Socialists will have to overcome seri-
ous organizational difficulties. The party has long
been a loose confederation of differing factions,
causing Socialist leader Soares serious problems in
simply trying to keep Marxists and social democratic
elements from coming to blows.
At the Socialist Party congress last December
party militants pushed the party to the left. They
have also forced Soares to abandon his policy of
restraint following the Socialist victory in the
constituent assembly elections last month. Embassy
sources report that Socialist Party militants will
attempt to remove more moderate Soares supporters
from the party leadership in the national secretar-
iat elections scheduled to be held this weekend.
Soares' own position is in little danger, however,
because of his personal popularity.
Meanwhile, air force pilots are disgruntled
following the replacement this week of General Men-
des Dias as chief of staff. They feel they have
been wronged by General Morais da Silva, the new
chief of staff, and by President Costa Gomes who
singled them out as obstacles to "the revolutionary
process."
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NOTES
Syria continues
to restrict the flow of water from the Tabaciah Dam
on the Euphrates River and it has made prepara-
tions to defend the dam should he Iraqis decide to
attack.
Syrian armored brigade, some 20 multiple roc-
ket launchers, and an SA-6 site, plus several target
acquisition radars, all are positioned close to the
dam. Iraq has recently increased its flights along
the river near the Syrian border.
Romania's Foreign Minister Macovescu Thursday
privately expressed Bucharest's understanding of the
US decision to retrieve the Mayaguez and its crew
from the Cambodians.
Macovescu told the US ambassador of his "great
admiration" for Washington's conduct of its affairs
in Indochina in recent weeks. Macovescu's comments,
while probably sincere, were also intended to coun-
terbalance Bucharest's lip-service ?to Warsaw Pact
solidarity earlier this week.
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ISRAEL AND OCCUPIED
TERRITORIES
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JAZIRAT
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ISRAEL - ARAB STATES
The Israelis and the Arabs are voic-
ing concern over what each perceives as
ominous moves by the other. The Egyptians
are apprehensive about Israeli military
maneuvers in the Sinai. Israeli Defense
Minister Peres has been pointing with
alarm to Jordanian army movements and in-
dications of Jordanian military coopera-
tion with Syria. The evidence does not
support a conclusion that either side is
about to initiate hostilities
some
military activity has taken place recently
within Israel and Jordan that could be
viewed as threatening.
King Husayn and Pres-
ident Asad reached an understanding in early April
for both military and political cooperation. This
was followed by
understanding,
meetings
and regarding air
forces
agreements reportedly only
two countries? political leadership.
defense,
on air force cooperation
employment of ground
Formal
await the approval of the
(continued)
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Jordan has in-
creased the state of readiness of its forces and re-
positioned them. Among the measures
are:
--Movement of Jordanian infantry units from the
Syrian front to forward positions on the Israeli
front.
--Movement of Jordanian artillery to army forma-
tions in forward positions and the turning toward
Israel of a few batteries that had been facing
Syria.
--Increase in Jordanian engineering activities
in forward positions and the improvement of
fortifications ?in the Jordan Valley.
--Forward deployment of
the battle positions of
fantry divisions in the
?
two armored battalions
to an area between
the two Jordanian in-
Jordan Valley.
(continued)
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the Israelis have taken steps this week to im- -
prove their security
aimed at countering the possibility of terrorist at-
tacks during Israel's independence day activities.
Some Israeli reservists were recalled 25X1
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troops rather than border police are patrolling Is-
raeli beaches, a precaution to prevent terrorist
landings.
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The Egyptians, too, are apprehensive. Much of
Cairo's nervousness probably stems from recent public
reports that claim the Israelis have
recalled reservists, that they are closing roads on
the occupied-West Bank, and that they are massing
troops on the borders with Jordan and Syria in prep-
aration for another war.
(continued)
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