THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 26 SEPTEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014912
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 26, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
September 26, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 513(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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September 26, 1975;
Table of Contents
Oil: OPEC oil ministers probably started today's
price-fixing meeting with a recommendation
for a rise in the range of 10 to 15 percent.
(Page 1)
USSR: Recent Soviet purchases of grain, if con-
firmed, will raise total contracts to 20
million tons, still 25 to 30 million tons
below the minimum requirements for fiscal
1976. (Page 2)
LEBANON: The fighting in Beirut has tapered off,
but no solution to the underlying Christian-
Muslim political impasse is in sight.
(Page 3)
Syria:
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MBFR: The current round of talks beginning today
in Vienna will be seen by West Europeans as
the first major test of the "spirit of Hel-
sinki." (Page 8)
Portugal: A demonstration against the government
last night by leftist soldiers is a sign of
how far the government has to go to restore
military discipline. (Page 6)
Notes: USSR; China; North Korea - South Korea;
India-Bangladesh (Pages 8 and 9)
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OIL
The OPEC oil ministers adjourned
yesterday without reaching a decision
on prices. Another session is to be-
gin today at 6 a.m. Washington time
in an e ort to reach a com romise.
Most members support a rise of about 15 per-
cent, but Saudi Arabia, and perhaps one or two
others favor a smaller rise./
The ministers met formally yesterday for
about an hour, and then broke into small groups
to discuss the price issue. Saudi Oil Minister
Yamani left the meeting early, and, referring to
his efforts to hold the price increase to less
than 10 percent, told the press that "We are
facing terrible opposition."
The meeting broke up about an hour after
Yamani left, and the other ministers indicated
to the press that the proceedings were deadlocked.
It is doubtful the Saudis will veto a 15-per-
cent increase.
Yamani told the press in London that he did not
think he could agree to more than a 5-percent rise
in oil prices. He did not, however, say he would
veto a larger increase, and the Saudis may abstain
today.
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USSR
the USSR recently bought
about three million metric tons of
wheat and other grains.
these purchases would raise total
Soviet grain contracts to nearly 20
million tons, still 25 to 30 million
tons below their minimum requirements
for fiscal 1976.
The recent purchases probably have been con-
cluded with Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Spain, and
the European Community. Additional purchases of
grain are a virtual certainty once the US and
Canadian moratoriums are lifted.
In addition to these grain purchases, the
Soviets have bought 1.5 - 2 million tons of Bra-
zilian soybeans, and another contract for one mil-
lion tons is likely.
The Soviets are taking drastic steps to cope
with their poor harvest. Officially released data
on meat production and herd numbers in August con-
firm that distress slaughtering has begun. Soviet
willingness to pay high rates for grain shipped
on US ships is indicative of their need.
We still estimate the Soviet grain harvest
this year at 170 million tons.
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LEBANON
The fighting in Beirut tapered off
yesterday, but armed militiamen did not
withdraw from the barricades in some
areas and no solution to the underlying
Christian-Muslim political impasse is
in sight. One of the principal obsta-
cles to Christian-Muslim reconciliation
appears to be the adamant refusal of con-
servative Christian leaders--including
President Franjiyah--to make any mean-
ingful concessions to the Muslims.
A leader of the Maronite Christian community
informed Ambassador Godley that Franjiyah and Pha-
langist leader Jumayyil told a meeting of Maronite
leaders on Tuesday that they would refuse to con-
sider any modification of the existing Lebanese
political structure. Many less conservative Chris-
tians are convinced that compromise is the only way
out. By now, Franjiyah is so discredited that he
is not likely to survive in office for long.
Jumayyil apparently sees himself as the only
barrier to an arrangement that would alter the
Lebanese political system in favor of the Muslims.
His intransigence is playing into the hands of those
leftists and radical fedayeen groups determined to
keep the conflict going.
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LOA-I
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SYRIA
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MBFR
The force reduction talks, which re-
open today in Vienna will be seen by West
Europeans as the first major test of the
"spirit of Helsinki." Some progress is
anticipated in this round of the negotia-
tions if the West can reach agreement on
its long-awaited nuclear proposal.
The East has encouraged the belief that once a
CSCE agreement had been concluded, progress at
MBFR would follow. General Secretary Brezhnev--
along with many Western leaders--has underlined
the need to give priority attention to reducing
armed forces in Central Europe.
Progress in Vienna may come when the West is
able to overcome the reservations of some Europeans
to the nuclear proposal that the US introduced in
NATO last summer. Differences remain on two key
areas in the plan: limitations on Allied armaments
and the definition of a common ceiling for Warsaw
Pact and NATO forces.
The West Germans are concerned that the intro-
duction of the proposal may shift the emphasis at
the MBFR talks from troop reductions to broader
questions involving armaments. Both the Germans
and the British are determined to use the nuclear
plan to buy more than a formal commitment to a com-
mon ceiling, but they have not yet decided what
the additional commitment should be. Western agree-
ment to include air manpower in the common ceiling
also has made it increasingly difficult to keep the
focus on East-West ground force disparities.
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PORTUGAL
Several thousand Portuguese sol-
diers staged a peaceful anti-govern-
ment demonstration in Lisbon last
night, defying the new government to
restore order and enforce military
discipline. The enlisted men, mem-
bers of an extreme-left organization
called "Soldiers United Shall Win,"
demanded a more revolutionary govern-
ment.
The demonstration is the latest in a series of
breaches of military discipline that the government
shall have to deal with if it is going to establish
its authority. Other examples include:
--Anti-government demonstrations by the same
organization in the northern city of Porto and
in Sacavem, a Lisbon suburb.
--The theft of at least 1,000 automatic rifles
from a military arsenal by a security forces
officer, who later boasted that he had turned
them over to "revolutionary workers."
--Creation of a second revolutionary enlisted
men's organization in the Lisbon Military Re-
gion dedicated to ensuring a "progressive" ori-
entation for the Armed Forces Movement.
--Refusal by military police to obey orders to
go to Angola.
Military police clashed with hundreds of job-
less Angolan refugees in Lisbon on Wednesday. Be-
cause of their well-publicized leftist leanings and
their refusal to embark for Angola, the military
police are special targets for the wrath of the re-
turnees. According to the US embassy, army chief of
staff Fabiao held a meeting with military region
commanders and other key officers on Wednesday to
discuss deteriorating discipline. The subject re-
portedly was also taken up at length yesterday in
the Revolutionary Council.
(continued)
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Before it can hope to impose discipline, the
Council will have to restrain two of its own members,
Admiral Rosa Coutinho and General Carvalho, both
leaders of the extreme left nationalist faction.
Upon their return yesterday from Sweden, the two of-
ficers made statements which can only encourage the
unruly troops. Rosa Coutinho described both last
night's demonstration and the Communist-backed steel-
workers' strike on Wednesday, which was an open chal-
lenge to the new anti-Communist labor minister, as
"justified warnings." Not to be outdone, Carvalho
said he was not worried that arms had been handed
over by one of his security officers to leftists.
He would be worried, Carvalho said, if the weapons
had gone to the rightists.
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NOTES
Chinese Premier Chou En-lai's health apparently
has taken a turn for the worse.
Chou failed to meet North Vietnamese party
chief Le Duan and British former prime minister
Edward Heath during their visits to China this
month. Both visitors met Chairman Mao and would
normally meet Chou.
The
Chinese press is not keeping Chou's fragile health
a secret. It published the remarks of Cambodian
Deputy Prime Minister Khieu Samphan last month
that Chou was "not in the best of health."
(continued)
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North Korea has reacted negatively to our re-
cent joint proposal with South Korea for a con-
ference aimed at easing tensions.
A Pyongyang foreign ministry statement yester-
day was mild in tone by North Korean standards, but
contained a point-by-point rejection of well-esta-
blished US - South Korean recommendations. The North
Koreans refused to acknowledge that the US - South
Korean proposal contains a major new element--the
call for a conference on Korea initially to be at-
tended by the parties directly concerned with the
armistice (the US, North and South Korea, and China).
There is no doubt that Pyongyang is opposed to the
conference at this time. The North Koreans may
well have labeled it "nothing new," rather than re-
jecting it outright in order to minimize charges
that they are obstructionist and unwilling to en-
gage in dialogue--a consideration of some importance
as the vote at the UN on competing Korean resolu-
tions nears. The North Koreans are probably con-
cerned that the new US initiative could benefit the
US and South Korea tactically in the General Assem-
bly.
India
Bangladesh
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