THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 OCTOBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014923
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 9, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
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October 9, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category SB( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 9, 1975
Table of Contents
Portugal: The Communists have called for a confer-
ence between government leaders and the parties
of the left to prevent the current unrest in
the military from turning into a civil war.
(Page 1)
Lebanon: Authorities have reported that all sides
have agreed to another cease-fire--the sixth
since the fighting spread to Beirut. (Page 2)
USSR - East Germany: The friendship treaty signed
by the two countries on Tuesday is another at-
tempt by Moscow to legitimize the division of
Germany and to justify Soviet hegemony in East-
ern Europe. (Page 3)
Israel-Syria: Israel appears to be taking a relaxed
view of the tough requirements Syria has out-
lined for a resumption of negotiations.
(Page 4)
Notes: Cambodia; Cambodia-Vietnam; Spain - Spanish
Sahara - Morocco (Pages 5 and 6)
At Annex we present an assessment of the current
situation in Spain.
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PORTUGAL
The Communists yesterday called for
a conference between government leaders
and parties of the left to prevent the
unrest in the military from turning into
a civil war.
The Communists blame the current turmoil on
the Socialist-dominated government's efforts to
purge pro-Communists and other leftists from the
military, the media, and other influential posi-
tions. They also charge that the government is com-
promised by the presence of the Popular Democratic
Party, which the Communists describe as a tool of
the Socialists.
Although the Communists officially have sup-
ported the government, they may now drop this pre-
tense and turn their attention to their heretofore
covert campaign to undermine it. Yesterday, the
party issued a statement praising political agita-
tion among army units as "a magnificent riposte"
to reactionary attempts to swing the country to the
right. The party's call for removing reactionaries
from command positions indicates it has no intention
of backing Prime Minister Azevedo's efforts to re-
store military discipline.
Azorean separatists, meanwhile, may be trying
to capitalize on the government's problems on the
mainland. The Azorean Liberation Front
has given the interior minister eight days to ap-
prove a request for a referendum on independence
for the islands. If the request is refused, the
Front says it will consider a unilateral declara-
tion. The independence movement has lost its momen-
tum since Goncalves was replaced, and this
may be meant to recapture the initiative.
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LEBANON
Lebanese authorities have reported
that all sides have agreed to another
cease-fire following the latest eruption
in Beirut's suburbs. This is the sixth
cease-fire since the fighting spread to
the capital three weeks ago, and security
forces are still making little headway
in separating the opposing Christian and
Muslim militiamen. Heavy fighting also
has broken out in the Tripoli-Zagharta
area.
Fighting continued in Beirut last
night despite the cease-fire.
Muslim militia-
men refused to allow the security forces
to take over their barricades even though Phalangist
forces had already relinquished their posts.
The latest outbreak has increased the possibil-
ity that less radical fedayeen organizations--Fatah
and Saiqa--will cease their cooperation with the
security forces.
a change in attitude on the part of Saiqa and Fatah
against continued cooperation.
Syrian President Asad apparently still wishes
to play a moderating role in the crisis.
Asad is concerned over the
Palestine Liberation Organization's failure to con-
trol the Lebanese leftist groups.
Prime Minister Karami is to confer with Asad
in Damascus this morning and almost certainly will
ask Syria to make another attempt to mediate the
crisis. Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam probably
will be asked to return to Beirut.
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USSR - EAST GERMANY
The 25-year friendship treaty signed
by the Soviet Union and East Germany on
Tuesday is another attempt by Moscow to
legitimize the division of Germany and to
justify Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe.
The new agreement replaces a 20-year accord
signed in 1964 that was to remain in effect unless
a German peace treaty was signed or Germany was re-
united. The Soviets clearly believe that the Hel-
sinki agreement is a surrogate for a German peace
treaty. Moreover, both the new friendship treaty
and General Secretary Brezhnev's remarks preceding
its signature make plain that the European status
quo is now considered frozen and that any possibil-
ity for German reunification, peaceful or otherwise,
is out of the question. References in the treaty
to East Germany as a "sovereign, independent state"
reflect both sides' desire that East Germany's en-
hanced status be internationally recognized.
The treaty also includes language asserting
that the responsibility of all "socialist" coun-
tries is to support, strengthen, and defend "social-
ist gains." This language was used to justify the
Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia and has come
to be known as the "Brezhnev doctrine." By their
selection of these words, thetSoviets are telling
the East Europeans that there will be no fundamen-
tal change in their relationship with the USSR as
a consequence of Helsinki.
At the same time, the citation of the Brezhnev
doctrine and the great stress on across-the-board
cooperation in the treaty may be intended by the
General Secretary to quiet fears within the Soviet
leadership that the Helsinki final act and the
Vienna force reduction talks will undermine Moscow's
grip on Eastern Europe. In a recent article in
Kommunist, Foreign Minister Gromyko clearly stated
that Moscow will raise the degree of its cohesion
with Eastern Europe to still higher levels. If
the new treaty with East Germany is intended as a
vehicle for reaching this goal, invitations to the
Czechoslovaks, Poles, and other East Europeans to
sign similar accords may be in the offing.
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ISRAEL-SYRIA
Israel appears to be taking a
relaxed view of the tough require-
ments Syria has outlined for a re-
sumption of negotiations.
Top Israeli leaders are not optimistic that
the talks will get under way any time soon. They
are concerned that their failure to maintain at
least an appearance of negotiating momentum, how-
ever, might jeopardize the renewal of the UN forces'
mandate on the Golan Heights. Thus, they appear to
be using the press to hint publicly that they are
still interested in negotiating with Damascus.
One Israeli newspaper recently suggested that
Defense Minister Peres may be considering a with-
drawal from the hills at al-Qunaytirah as part of
an interim agreement. An Israeli journalist later
suggested to our embassy that Peres may even be
considering this withdrawal as a unilateral ges-
ture. Such a gesture timed to defuse the mandate
renewal issue is possible, but Israel regards the
hills as a major bargaining chip in the negotia-
tions with Damascus and is unlikely to relinquish
them solely in return for an extension of the UN
mandate.
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NOTES
Cambodia
Skirmishes continue between Cambodian and
f
Vietnamese nrogs on offshore islands in the Gulf
of Thailand
According to a Cambodian intercept, Vietnamese
forces last week occupied an island near another
held by Cambodia. Earlier messages referred to
several Cambodian casualties, apparently in this
area, and to Vietnamese shelling of a Cambodian
island. Both countries appear to be increasing
their coastal defenses, and there is no evidence
that either government is willing to compromise
about either the disputed islands or undersea re-
sources.
(continued)
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Spain may be taking more seriously reports of
a possible Moroccan incursion into Spanish Sahara.
has reported
that Spain may be in the process of reinforcing its
troops in Spanish Sahara and the Canary Islands.
An airfield in the Canary Islands was closed to
civilian traffic yesterday, reportedly because of
troop movements.
infantry battalion stationed there may be going to
Spanish Sahara. He also reports that a second para-
chute battalion may have been sent from the main-
land to the islands.
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SPAIN
The effort to bring about gradual
liberalization in Spain and to ease
the eventual transition of power from
General Franco to Prince Juan Carlos
suffered a major setback
The adoption of repressive tactics
by the regime reflects the ascendancy
of rightist forces at a crucial time
in Spain's political evolution. De-
spite the outpouring of patriotic
sentiment in reaction to foreign crit-
icism, the longer term effect of the
Franco anti-terrorist campaign will be
the further polarization of political
forces.
The ground lost to the rightists will not be
easily regained. The massive show of unity on the
39th anniversary of Franco's assumption of power
has been followed by rightist demonstrations
throughout the country. Elements opposed to any
significant political change will undoubtedly use
this show of support to consolidate their position.
(continued)
Al
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Senior Spanish military officers--many of the
highest rank being veterans of the civil war--un-
doubtedly supported adoption of the tough anti-
terrorist law.
Their position, however, does not necessarily
represent the sentiment of all lower ranking of-
ficers and enlisted men. The arrest of several of-
ficers last summer for involvement in political
activities suggests that there is more discontent
and perhaps incipient political activism among the
junior officers
So far, most of the complaints of junior officers
have seemed to revolve around such military issues
as pay and promotion.
The issue with the greatest potential for po-
liticizing the armed forces would be the necessity
of military intervention to restore law and order.
Opposition to a police role for the army has sur-
faced in the past, and even the upper echelons might
have second thoughts if the campaign of violence,
which is already beginning to reach serious propor-
tions, threatens to get out of hand.
Another issue that might galvanize a political
movement within the military would be a misadventure
in Spanish Sahara--either a quick, sharp defeat or
prolonged hostilities that could not be ended with
honor.
(continued)
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(continued)
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The 82-year-old Franco's selected successor--
Prince Juan Carlos--will inherit a nation that is
more polarized than it was even a few months ago
between those trying to maintain the old regime and
those committed to its reform or replacement.
Prime Minister Arias and others have sought
to lessen the dangers of the transition by slowly
bringing into the mainstream of Spanish politics
groups which in any other European country would,
at the very least, be members of the respectable
opposition.
The government is still striving to
(continued)
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present a united front in the face of its current
problems
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