THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 24 JUNE 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015145
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 24, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
June 24, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification sshedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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June 24, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: The Beirut airport, which opened again yesterday, re-
mains under the control of Syrian troops. (Page 1)
Egypt-Syria: Egyptian and Syrian prime ministers and foreign min-
isters met in Riyadh last night for the first round of the
Saudi effort to reconcile the rift between Cairo and Damas-
cus. (Page 2)
USSR: Most of the warships that monitored US units during the
evacuation of civilians from Beirut are following the US
ships as they leave the area. (Page 2)
Portugal: The presidential election, scheduled for Sunday, was
thrown into doubt yesterday when Prime Minister Azevedo, on(25xl
of the four candidates, suffered a severe heart attack.
(Page 3)
China
(Page 4) 25X1
Notes: Afghanistan; Philippines-China; Ethiopia-Somalia; Poland;
Thailand (Pages 5, 6, and 7)
At Annex we discuss some of the complexities involved in Syria's
intervention in Lebanon.
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LEBANON: Beirut air-
port, still firmly un-
der the control of Syr-
The
airport's availability proba-
ian forces, opened yes-
bly
will remain a chancy thing.
terday to the first
The
Palestinians are already charg-
commercial air traffic
ing
that Syrian troops yesterday
in over two weeks.
In another example of
the continued ill-will
between Syria and Fatah,
Damascus issued a state-
ment yesterday--through
a Palestinian affiliate
of the Baath Party--
that attacked Fatah for
"considering itself a
substitute for the PLO
command."
prevented the landing of a Saudi
aircraft carrying food and medi-
cine.
Although the Syrian troops at the
airport apparently belong to the
Syrian contingent of the Libyan-
Syrian security force and are not
the Syrian regulars who have been
occupying the airport, the distinc-
tion is academic.
25X1
Heavy fighting continued between
Christians and Palestinians and
leftists around refugee camps in
Beirut and around Palestinian-left-
ist positions in central Lebanon.
There was little evidence of fight-
ing between Syrian and Palestinian
forces.
The Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion yesterday released the pro-
Syrian commander of the Palestine
Liberation Army, Musbah Budayri
whom Fatah forces kidnaped two
weeks ago. Budayri's release was
one of Syria's conditions for
agreeing to the latest truce plan.
The statement accused Fatah of en-
larging rather than resolving ex-
isting differences among member or-
ganizations in the PLO and playing
the Arab states off against each
other. Without naming Yasir Ara-
fat, the statement urged that the
Arabs "put an end to the domination
of certain persons" in the Fatah
command.
--continued
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Israeli Prime Minister
Rabin told a group of
students Tuesday that
the entry of the Arab
League's security force
into Lebanon could, over
the long term, encourage
political developments
threatening to Israel's
security.
EGYPT-SYRIA: The Egyp-
tian and Syrian prime
ministers and foreign
ministers met in Riyadh
last night for the first
round of the much post-
poned Saudi effort to
reconcile the rift be-
tween Cairo and Damas-
cus.
USSR: Most of the So-
viet warships that mon-
itored US units during
the evacuation of ci-
vilians from Beirut are
following the US ships
as they leave the area.
Syrian officials still publicly de-
clare solidarity with the Palestin-
ians and deny that clashes have oc-
curred between Syrian and Palestin-
ian forces. By attributing yester-
day's statement to an ostensibly
non-government organization, Da-
mascus can deny association with
it. The attack seems designed,
however, to test the Arabs' recep-
tivity to a Syrian attempt to re-
move Fatah from its commanding po-
sition within the PLO.
Rabin's remarks reflect recurring
Israeli apprehensions that the Arab
League force may prepare the way
for an eventual rapprochement be-
tween Syria and the Lebanese left-
ists and to the installation of a
Syrian-dominated leftist regime in
Beirut--a contingency Israeli lead-
ers have repeatedly stated their
government could not tolerate.
Chances for more than a surface
reconciliation are dim. Reports
that an Egyptian-Syrian summit is
scheduled to follow the Riyadh
meeting have not been confirmed.
Definite plans probably await the
outcome of the Riyadh talks.
Although Soviet naval strength in
the Mediterranean--nearly 70 ships
of all types--is still high, more
than a dozen of these probably will
leave within a week. More Soviet
warships are entering the Mediter-
ranean from the Atlantic, but
these appear to be units transfer-
ring to other places.
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--continued
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PORTUGAL: The presi-
dential election, sched-
uled for Sunday, was
thrown into doubt yes-
terday when Prime Min-
ister Azevedo, one of
the four candidates,
suffered a severe heart
attack.
25X1
If 25X1
Azevedo should die before the vot-
ing begins, the constitution spec-
ifies that the President set a new
date and that the entire election
process begin again. This would
require a delay of at least six to
eight weeks.
The Prime Minister, whose election
campaign has been poorly organized
and under financed, has been un-
able to halt the momentum of the
front-runner, army chief Eanes.
During the past week, Azevedo has
increased his personal attacks
against Eanes. These attempts to
discredit the army chief have done
little to help Azevedo and have
created hostility toward him within
the armed forces.
Should the Prime Minister decide
to withdraw from the race before
the deadline tomorrow, much of his
support would probably go to Eanes
and would probably improve his
chances of winning a majority in
the first round of voting. Al-
though Azevedo might encourage his
followers to back the far left
candidate, former security chief
Otelo de Carvalho--whom he has
praised in recent campaign state-
ments--it is unlikely that many
would act on this advice.
Should Azevedo die before Sunday,
the postponement of the election
could have far-reaching conse-
quences. Not only could it lead
--continued
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CHINA:
to shifting alliances and new can-
didates entering the race, but it
would postpone the formation of a
new government based on the parlia-
ment elected last April. Any de-
lay would also defer the enactment
of badly needed economic measures.
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Afghanistan
NOTES
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--continued
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PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA
NORTH
VIETNAM
Hanoi*
Gulf of Tonkin
SOUTH\
VI ET.
CAMBODIA
/ ?
o Miles
?O Kil001801101 260
c
2?0
1:21HONG KONG
(U.K.)
..MACAO
p ; (PORT.)
CAI
PARACEL ISLANDS
SOUTH
CHINA
SEA
SPRATLY ISLANDS
REED
BANK
?
*Mena
PHILIPPINES
?
tir _
)
PALAINtAN
. 559954 6-76
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Philippine
China
Ethiopia reportedly has
begun reinforcing its
troops along the border
with the French Terri-
tory of the Afars and
Issas as a contingency
against Somalian at-
tempts to move into the
territory during the
Organization of African
Unity council of minis-
ters and summit meet-
ings.
25X1
25X1
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The ministers begin meeting today;
the summit is scheduled for July
2 through 5.
We believe it is unlikely that So-
malia will initiate a military
move against the FTAI during the
conference. Somalia is committed
to eventually annexing the terri-
tory, but is unlikely to flagrantly
offend African opinion by starting
a war while the OAU is meeting.
--continued
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IT ? r v-1 ?-?"--1. e171,"1-11L .."-"1-7 'TT
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The Polish party daily
yesterday said that
prices of basic food
items must soon be
raised.
Thai
Prices on meat, milk, butter, and
flour have been held stable since
1970, when widespread riots and
strikes over a price increase
brought Edward Gierek to power.
During the past year there have
been open complaints about short-
ages of key items such as pork and
the prospect of price hikes.
The regime may already be taking
steps to head off any show of popu-
lar dissatisfaction. According to
Western observers in Warsaw, po-
lice leaves have been canceled and
more than the usual number of po-
lice are on the streets in and
around the capital. These meas-
ures may have been taken, however,
to handle the European youth con-
gress now under way there.
*25X1
25X1 25X1
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--continued
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SYRIA AND LEBANON: A LOOK AHEAD
President Asad's decision to allow the en-
try of a token Libyan force into the Bei-
rut airport area this week presages no
significant reducticn of Syria's military
or political role in Lebanon. Although
growing domestic unrest over his Lebanese
policy and the recent threatening military
moves by Iraq influenced his decision on
the issue of Libyan participation, there
are no indications that Asad is relenting
in his determination to impose a Syrian
settlement on Lebanon's warring factions.
By continuing to consolidate Syria's military posi-
tion and insisting on substantial Syrian participa-
tion in any multilateral operation, Asad appears to
have persuaded some of the other Arabs that any pan-
Arab force would only be a token one, would have to
confine its activities to Beirut, and would enter
Lebanon only under a protective Syrian umbrella.
Asad is likely to continue his efforts to blockade
the Palestinians in their principal strongholds of
Beirut and Sidon. The Syrians still hope to avoid
engaging the Palestinians in urban street fighting
in the major cities. Damascus probably views the
latest Christian assaults as helpful inasmuch as
sustained Christian attacks would make the Palestin-
ian position even more precarious. Without exter-
nal resupply, it seems unlikely that the main Pal-
estinian and Lebanese leftist forces will again be
able to gain the initiative over the Christians,
who have been rebuilding their military inventory
since April.
The Political Complexities
If the Palestinians are forced to accept a cease-
fire on Syrian terms, some form of round table po-
litical negotiations probably will get under way
under the aegis of president-elect Sarkis. Even if
political talks resume any of the parties could
make new political demands or mount new attacks to
derail progress.
--continued
Al
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The Syrians will continue to pursue a resolution
that preserves Christian rights but enhances Muslim
political participation and power. Despite Asad's
generally adroit maneuvering in recent weeks, how-
ever, he seriously misjudged the amount of military
pressure he could put on the Palestinians without
meeting fierce resistance, and he is constrained by
political and financial problems at home and Iraqi
intimidations along Syria's eastern border. The
longer he is embroiled militarily in Lebanon, the
more exposed he is likely to be to unrest within
the Syrian military and to the possible deepening
of rivalries between Syria's own Alawite, Sunni Mus-
lim, Christian, and Druze sects. His apparent de-
termination to arrogate responsibility for rebuild-
ing a Lebanese security force to Syria will heighten
these risks by requiring a sizable Syrian military
presence for a long time in selected areas of Leba-
non.
Asad and the Palestinians
Asad's most complex problem in the near future will
be his relationship with the Palestinians. The Syr-
ian-controlled Saiqa group, badly mauled by Fatah
in the intra-Palestinian fighting in Beirut earlier
this month, will not easily regain a position from
which it can limit Fatah's dominance of the fedayeen.
Asad can be expected to try to restore and regener-
ate Saiqa, but he also is likely to make a major ef-
fort to make Fatah more susceptible to Syrian in-
fluence and direction. He will be handicapped in
this effort by his distrust of Yasir Arafat, which
has deepened in recent weeks. There probably will
be a cosmetic reconciliation between Asad and Ara-
fat, but the Syrian President is likely to work
more actively than before to undermine and--over
the long term--perhaps unseat Arafat. At the same
time Arafat probably will seek to capitalize on Pal-
estinian assistance to the US evacuation from Leba-
non to embellish his credentials as an internation-
ally accepted Arab leader.
The complexities of the Lebanese crisis make it un-
likely that Asad will win an unqualified victory.
At present, however, he appears to retain sufficient
strength at home and enough support in the Arab
world to be able ultimately to force acceptance of
a settlement that is largely on Syrian terms.
A2
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Top Secret
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