THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 22 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466878
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 22, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
October 22, 1976-
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemption categ,ory 5B( I ).(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 22, 1976
Table of Contents
Egypt-Syria: The reconciliation between Egypt and Syria during
the Riyadh conference last week and other moves taken by
Sadat recently seem intended to put the US and Israel on
notice that Egypt is determined to press Washington for a
new negotiating initiative on the Middle East soon after
the presidential election. (Page 1)
Lebanon: The latest cease-fire is partially holding; each side
has accused the other of violations. (Page 2)
USSR-Syria:
(Page 3) 25X1
Syria: Involvement in Lebanon has not strained the economy as
severely as expected. (Page 4)
China: The official news agency last night confirmed the pro-
motion of Hua Kuo-feng and the "smashing" of the leftist
conspiracy; the purge of the radicals may have largely
ended the protracted debate over foreign trade policy.
(Page 5)
Notes: USSR (dismantling); USSR (Black Sea); Oil; Zambia-Rho-
desia; Thailand (Pages 7, 8, and 9)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT-SYRIA: The rec-
onciliation between
Egypt and Syria during
the Riyadh conference
this week was an abrupt
about-face for Presi-
dent Sadat.
Sadat's reconciliation
with Syria is the most
dramatic and signifi-
cant of his recent
moves.
Other moves taken by Sadat recently
seem designed both to refurbish
his Arab leadership credentials
and to put the US and Israel on
notice that Egypt is determined to
press Washington for a new nego-
tiating initiative on the Middle
East soon after the presidential
election. These moves are:
--Egypt's call on Wednesday for
a meeting of the UN Security
Council to discuss Israel's "re-
pressive measures" in the oc-
cupied territories;
--Cairo's efforts to arrange a
meeting between Foreign Minister
Fahmi and Soviet Foreign Minis-
ter Gromyko which would be the
first such meeting in almost two
years; and
The UN initiative, the overture to
the Soviets, and the approaches to
Libya are all largely tactical
steps that cost Sadat little. The
rapprochement with Asad, however,
has involved important concessions
and a radical departure from poli-
cies Sadat has pursued for the
past year. Sadat in effect recog-
nized Syria's supremacy in Lebanon.
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0 KILOMETERS 20
620585 10-76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON: The latest
cease-fire is partially
holding; each side has
accused the other of
violations.
Sadat pledged at Riyadh to cease
his arrangement with Iraq to trans-
fer arms to the Lebanese leftists
and Palestinians, and he apparently
put Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion leader Yasir Arafat on notice
that the PLO could no longer ex-
pect to play Egypt off against
Syria.
Among the factors that probably
contributed to Sadat's turnaround
were Sadat's
own realization that his efforts
to stop Syria have been unavailing
and have done Egypt more harm than
good. Probably most important is
Sadat's belated awareness that
only through Egyptian-Syrian coop-
eration can he expect to achieve
the progress in peace negotiations
with Israel that he hopes for in
the future.
Sadat has undoubtedly hoped through-
out the last year to force cooper-
ation upon Damascus on his own
terms. He apparently now believes
that he cannot present convincing
evidence that the Arabs themselves
are ready for peace negotiations--
and thus press the US into action--
unless the Lebanon and the Egyp-
tian-Syrian problems are resolved--
even if on terms that do not fully
satisfy him.
Artillery and rocket shelling con-
tinued intermittently in Beirut
yesterday. The Christians accused
the Palestinians of shelling in
the Mount Lebanon area near Bdadun,
although most positions in the
mountains east of Beirut seem to
have been generally quiet.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Arab League Secretary
General Riyad yesterday
sent out invitations
for a full summit con-
ference in Cairo next
Monday on the Lebanese
situation.
USSR-SYRIA:
UN observation posts along Leba-
non's border with Israel reported
that Christian forces yesterday at-
tacked several villages in the
vicinity of Marun al-Ras and that
fighting was going on in Bint
Jubayl and Rumaysh. The Chris-
tians, who have been fighting to
improve their positions in the
border area for the last several
days, may have decided to press
their attacks in retaliation for
their loss of a village Wednesday
to Palestinian and Lebanese Arab
Army forces.
The summit is expected to ratify
the agreement reached at Riyadh
last weekend.
the Cairo summit
will also focus on recruiting for
the expanded Arab League security
forces. One result of this arrange-
ment will be a delay in the en-
forcement of the Riyadh agreement.
President Sarkis--who has been
given authority over the League
forces--might turn to Damascus to
rein in Christian violators of the
cease-fire, a move that could
cause strains between the Syrians
and their Christian allies.
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SYRIA: Syrian involve-
ment in the Lebanese
civil war has put a
heavy strain on the
economy, but not so
severe as expected.
Through a combination of reduced
development spending and renewed
Arab assistance, the Syrians have
managed to weather the worst ef-
fects of their participation in
the Lebanese conflict.
Although Syria claims that the war
will cost $2.6 billion in 1976,
much of this amount represents
personnel costs and other current
expenditures which are being met
by simply inflating the money sup-
ply. The foreign exchange cost of
the war is probably around $600
million for this year.
The estimated 1 million refugees
that have flowed into Syria have
caused chronic shortages of food
and housing and have fueled the
current 30-percent inflation rate,
but many of the refugees have been
absorbed into the labor force.
Syria was suffering a labor defi-
cit prior to the fighting in Leba-
non.
Syria was hurt earlier this year
when Iraq cut its oil pipeline
transit payments and stopped sell-
ing light crude to the Syrians at
concessionary prices. The Saudis
stepped in and are now supplying
most of Syria's light crude re-
quirements.
Loans, primarily from other Arab
countries and the US, should cover
all but roughly one third of
Syria's anticipated 1976 current
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CHINA: Peking's offi-
cial news agency last
night confirmed the ap-
pointment of Hua Kuo-
feng as Chairman of the
Central Committee of
the Communist Party and
of the party's Military
Affairs Commission.
The purge of radicals
may have largely ended
the protracted debate
among China's leaders
over foreign trade
policy.
account deficit of about $975 mil-
lion. With reserves estimated at
$1 billion at the beginning of
1976 and with several hundred
million dollars in loan pledges
still outstanding, Syria should
be able to close this gap.
It noted the promotion indirectly
in a description of a mass rally
held in Peking yesterday. It is
not clear why the Chinese chose
this method of publicly confirming
Hua's elevation. A major leader-
ship meeting is apparently still
under way in Peking.
The news agency also referred for
the first time explicitly to the
antiparty clique of Wang Hung-wen,
Chang Chun-chiao, Chiang Ching,
and Yao Wen-yuan, saying Hua had
smashed their conspiracy "to usurp
party and state power."
The debate had centered on the de-
gree to which China would import
foreign products and technology;
the moderates had argued for grad-
ually expanding foreign trade,
while the radicals emphasized
"self-reliance" and reduced im-
ports.
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Earlier reporting had hinted that
the dispute over foreign trade was
chiefly responsible for Peking's
failure to develop the new five-
year plan that was to have begun
last January.
The recent announcement on the
opening of the autumn trade fair
in Canton asserted that Chinese
trade groups will "make wide con-
tacts" with foreign businessmen,
with a view to "increasing trade."
Although the removal of uncertainty
in the trade sector caused by the
economic debate should expedite
trade recovery, economic con-
straints that have limited trade
growth since 1974 will continue to
slow the development of imports.
--continued
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Satellite photoaraphu
shows
that the Soviets have
started dismantling at
least 19 more older
ICBM launchers--13
SS-7s and 6 SS-8s.
Soviet reaction to the
routine patrol now be-
ing conducted by two
US Navy warships--a
cruiser and a frigate--
in the Black Sea thus
far has been normal.
NOTES
The photogrpahy covers only 81 of
the total 209 older ICBM launchers.
The Soviets could have begun dis-
mantling additional launchers and
completed dismantling others not
observed on this mission.
With the latest information, we
have now identified at least 98
Soviet launchers in varying stages
of dismantlement.
In late September the Soviets
stated that 61 of the older launch-
ers were fully dismantled, with
work under way on 34 more. By
late October the Soviets should
have fully dismantled 67 launchers
and have begun to dismantle at
least 36 and possibly 52 more,
depending on whether another
D-class submarine has begun sea
trials.
Photography from another photo-
graphic mission will be available
for detailed study in several days.
A more complete analysis of the
dismantling of Soviet ICBM launchers
will be available next week.
* * *
Soviet naval aircraft and ships,
including two destroyers, have
conducted surveillance. The US
force entered the Black Sea on
Tuesday and is scheduled to leave
on Sunday.
--continued
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The oil industry is
lifting large volumes
of crude oil in advance
of the expected OPEC
price rise on January
1, 1977.
Zambia has freed a
Rhodesian black nation-
alist--Zimbabwe African
National Union defense
chief Josiah Tongogara--
and three other ZANU
officials who were on
trial for murder in
Lusaka.
Thailand's new National
Administrative Reform
Council shows increas-
ing signs of splinter-
ing into divisive
cliques.
Oil buyers, anticipating that the
OPEC oil ministers will boost
prices by 10 to 15 percent, be-
lieve that gross savings from
early buying will range from $1.15
to $1.73 per barrel. Net savings
will be considerably less because
of additional costs of financing,
moving, and storing the oil pur-
chased. The practice will be
profitable if the price increase
is 10 percent or more.
Tongogara has wide influence among
ZANU guerrillas and could play a
critical role in the Rhodesian
settlement attempt.
Admiral Sa-ngat, chairman of the
council, clearly fears he is los-
ing control of the situation as
the result of maneuverings by sev-
eral high-ranking army officers.
Sa-ngat hopes to frustrate the am-
bitions of other officers by put-
ting together a civilian adminis-
tration rapidly. A cabinet has
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been appointed, heavily weighted
with technocrats, and the new for-
eign minister, Upadit Pachariyang-
kun--currently ambassador to the
US--apparently was chosen with an
eye toward fostering better rela-
tions, with Washington.
Public reaction to the arrests that
have followed the coup so far seems
to range from apathy to general
approval. Initial fears that sub-
stantial numbers of students and
other urban activists would join
the rural insurgency appear to have
been exaggerated. A few students
have reportedly gone to Laos for
training, but most of the formerly
politically active students ap-
parently prefer to clear their
names and remain in school.
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