THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 29 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466884
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 29, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
I
October 29, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassgicatton schedule of ED 1652
exernpuon category 5B(1).(2),(3)
declarafied only on approval of
the Thrector of Central Intelhgence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 29, 1976
Table of Contents
Rhodesia: Both the black nationalists and the white Rhodesians
are saying the guerrilla war will soon increase in intensity.
(Page 1)
China-USSR: Peking's quick rejection of Moscow's latest message
to China reemphasizes the determination of the leadership
that there be no early departure from its anti-Soviet
stance. (Page 2)
USSR: Satellite photography
shows that the Soviets have completed the dismantling
of six more older ICBM launchers and have begun dismantling
29 others. (Page 3)
Lebanon: Lebanese Christians and Muslims are refusing publicly
to go along with some provisions of the Riyadh accord.
(Page 4)
Egypt-Libya: Satellite photography
nificant changes in military forces on
Egyptian and Libyan border. (Page 6)
United Kingdom
either
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shows no si 25X1
side of the
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(Page
Notes: Cuba; USSR; Mexico; Japan; China (Pages 8, 9, 10, and
r
At Annex,
Rhodesia
7) 25X1
11)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
.0RHODESIA: Both the
black nationalists and
the white Rhodesians
are saying the guer-
rilla war will soon in-
crease in intensity.
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*
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A key military commander
who was originally slated to go to
Geneva has stayed behind in Mozam-
bique.
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Nkomo is said to be trying to re-
cruit and expand his guerrilla
forces, presumably to be in a bet-
ter position vis-a-vis ZANU in a
black-ruled Rhodesia.
The white Rhodesians apparently
are still expecting to receive ad-
ditional South African aid if the
talks break down and the war ex-
pands. Rhodesian Prime Minister
Smith implied this in a televis25X1
interview in mid-October.
*
--continued
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*- CHINA-USSR: Peking's
quick rejection of Mos-
cow's latest message to
China reemphasizes the
determination of the
current leadership that
there be no early de-
parture from its anti-
Soviet stance.
A Chinese government spokesman
told foreign newsmen yesterday
that the congratulatory message
from Soviet party chief Brezhnev
to Hua Kuo-feng--who was offi-
cially named chairman of the Chi-
nese party this week--was rejected
because "no relations" exist be-
tween the two parties. Peking re-
jected congratulatory notes from
Moscow's East European allies for
the same reason, according to the
spokesman.
Last month, after Chairman Mao's
death, Peking refused a sympathy
note from the Soviet party Central
Committee. That message was the
first Soviet attempt at public
party-to-party communication since
1966.
Although Moscow has virtually elim-
inated anti-Chinese commentary
from its propaganda since Mao's
death, the Chinese have continued
their harsh criticism of Soviet
activities and intentions. No
change has been noted since the
purge of leading leftists in China
earlier this month. Chinese offi-
cials described the 25X1
Soviet messages as directed prima-
rily at other countries and not a
genuine signal to Peking.
Even those individuals who in the
past have reportedly favored im-
proved ties with Moscow presumably
believe there would be little ad-
vantage in pushing their argument,
at least until after the US elec-
tions when they may be able to
judge better where relations with
Washington are headed. They prob-
ably assume that any signal now of
a Chinese interest in improved re-
lations with the Soviets could
create problems in Sino-US rela-
tions.
--continued
2
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Number of Older Missile Launchers
Number of Older Missile Launchers
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STATUS OF DISMANTLING OF OLDER SOVIET MISSILE LAUNCHERS
NITIATIONS
210
150
100
50
210
150
100
50
Initiation Obligations
N,
Xlbserved Performance)
1 1 1 1 1 1
1
COMPLETIONS
Completion Obligations
Observed Performance
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 I 1 1
1 1 1
1975 1976
Obligations
Required number of
launchers with
1977 1978
620603 10-76 CIA - 25)(1
Soviet ICBM Dismantling
March 1 June July August September October
Dismantling Complete
51
51
51
51
51
,67
Dismantling Initiated
0
16
28
28
44
56
-51-
-GT
79
7 F
95
123
Observed Performance
(Dec 4- (Mar 22- (Jul 9- (Aug 4- (Sep 7 -
Mar 29) May 17) Aug 3) Sep 6) Oct 19)
Dismantling Complete
8
13-16
33
33
39
Dismantling in Progress
43
38-35
20
46
69
51
53
79
108
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The USSR must have re-
alized that its message
was almost certain to
be rejected.
USSR: Satellite photo-
graph
shows that the
Soviets have completed
the dismantling of six
more older ICBM launch-
ers and have begun dis-
mantling 29 others.
Twenty of the 209 ori-
ginal SS-7 and SS-8
launchers were not pho-
tographed, however, and
additional dismantling
activity may have oc-
curred.
The Soviets may have proceeded any-
way to underscore publicly Chinese
intransigence and, possibly, to
test whether China's recent purge
of leftists--who in Soviet eyes
are the most implacably ti-Soviet
element within China--had in fact
made the Chinese anymore receptive
to such a message.
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The Soviets now have at least 108 25X1
launchers in varying stages of be-25X1
ing dismantled; of these 39 can be
considered fully dismantled. Of
the 69 others, 20 have been ren-
dered unusable to the extent that
none could be returned to opera-
tional status in substantially
less time than required for new
construction.
Under the terms of the procedures
established by the Standing Con-
sultative Commission, the Soviets
should have had 67 launchers fully
dismantled by early October and
work underway on 56 others by late
October.
The Soviets, meanwhile, continue
to incur additional dismantling
obligations. A D-class submarine
with 16 missile launchers probably
will begin sea trials in late No-
vember or early December, requir-
ing 16 additional launchers to be
in the process of dismantling.
2
3
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*NLEBANON: Lebanese
Christians and Muslims
are refusing publicly
to go along with the
provisions of the Ri-
yadh accord with which
they do not agree.
The Syrians seem to be
taking some steps to
deal with Christian re-
calcitrance.
According to Beirut press reports,
Christian leaders have now decided
to accept Arab League peace-keep-
ing forces only at a few spots in
areas they control. The Christians
plan instead to offer Lebanese
President Sarkis a group of 30,000
Christians--matching the strength
of the Arab League force--who
would police Christian zones while
League troops enforce security in
other areas.
Sarkis is unlikely to accept the
Christian offer, which would make
a mockery of the withdrawal provi-
sions agreed on at Riyadh.
Syria has been particularly in-
censed by the open cooperation be-
tween the Christians and Israelis
in the south and has already made
representations to the Christians
to stop. We also have seen indi-
cations that the Syrians have al-
lowed some units of a Palestine
Liberation Army brigade, which
they dominate, to move south but
cannot confirm press reports of a
broader Palestinian movement.
Any Palestinians returning to the
south could be headed for the
three Palestinian camps on the
outskirts of Tyre. The Palestin-
ians are supposed to be withdraw-
ing to their camps under the pro-
visions of the Riyadh agreement.
The Syrian actions may be a propa-
ganda gesture, allowing Damascus
to pose as a partner of the Pales-
tinians against the main enemy--
Israel--and to get out from under
charges that Syria is cooperating
with Israel against the Palestin-
ians. Allowing Palestinians into
--continued
4
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MEDITERRANEAN
BEI RUT
DAMASCUS
MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Syrians still seem
determined to keep the
area near the Israeli
border quiet.
the south but keeping them well
away from the border area itself
could also be designed as a face-
saving gesture to PLO chief Yasir
Arafat to induce him to go along
with an agreement that was essen-
tially a defeat.
The Syrians probably assume that
the Christians are sufficiently
strong in the south to cope with
additional Palestinian units with-
out incurring the threat of Is-
raeli retaliation. In any case,
south Lebanon is virtually the
only area of the country where the
fedayeen can go if they are pull-
ing out of Mount Lebanon, the Bei-
rut suburbs, or any of the other
areas specified in the Riyadh
agreement.
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam
told Ambassador Murphy yesterday
that Damascus had contacted all
parties involved in the situation
in the south and was exerting a
major effort to prevent trouble
on the border.
Palestinians and Muslims in Bint
Jubayl were shelled by Christians
and Israelis yesterday, and
artillery duels took place in two
other areas near the border.
There were small-scale clashes,
sporadic-shelling, and some sniper
fire in Beirut and its suburbs
yesterday. The city is still rel-
atively calm, however, and the
death toll has dropped dramatic-
ally.
--continued
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TUNIS
Tunisia
"c3
Malta
Niger
SJ,0
B 6
????
' Crete
Mediterranean Sea
Libya
300 Miles
300 Kilometers
Chad
Al-Jgghbub?
,t
.Siwah
Turkey
Cypru, Syria
BEIRUT
Lebanah *
VI DAM.
Tel Aviv-YafoiiA AMMAN
Israeti_?./.,*)
Y)--&
/Jordan
1,1:t.'8797
CAIRO*
N-7
Egy
Sudan
620604 10-78
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EGYPT-LIBYA: Satellite
photography
shows no signifi-
cant changes in mili-
tary forces on either
side of the Egyptian
and Libyan border.
Heavy haze and clouds
over most of the area,
however, hampered our
ability to monitor de-
velopments.
The Egyptians continued work on
the new airfield at Sidi Barrani
started in mid-summer. The field
is still not ready for air opera-
tions. New air defense associated
electronics equipment observed at
Siwah airfield suggests that Egypt
expects to use that field as an
auxiliary fighter airstrip.
On the Libyan side, the photogra-
h confirms 25X1
that Libya is improving 25)(1
an o airstrip at Al Jaghbub, op-
posite the Siwah oasis. Work on
the strip is still at a prelimi-
nary stage, but we estimate that
only small utility aircraft and
helicopters will be able to use
the field when it is completed.
25X1
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Analysis of U-2 photography
indicates that the
15 or so Egyptian infantry battal-
ions that moved to Cairo for the
parade on October 6 commemorating
the 1973 Arab-Israeli war appar-
ently have returned to the west
bank area of the Suez Canal.
The photography also shows that
Egypt continues to maintain enough
equipment on the east bank of the
Suez Canal to support about eight
infantry battalions--the maximum
number allowed under the terms of
the Sinai II agreement. Based on
their onsite inspections, UN ob-
servers have reported that Egypt
is maintaining eight battalions
in its limited aramaments zone.
6
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UNITED KINGDOM
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* * *
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!,. The Castro regime is
planning radio and
television interviews
with several alleged
CIA agents living in
Cuba.
NOTES
25X1
The Cubans have invited selected
foreign journalists to cover the
interviews, which reportedly were
to have started on Wednesday. Ha-
vana may have delayed the program
to avoid giving the impression of
interfering in US politics.
25X1
Castro, speaking at a memorial
service on October 15 for the vic-
tims of the Cubana air crash in
25X1
Barbados, said a CIA agent was ac-
tually working for Cuban intelli-
gence. This person
apparently 25X1
is to be the highlight of the com-
ing interviews.
In addition, Castro has promised 25X1
to surface a number of other people,
25X1
*
The Soviet announcement
yesterday that Moscow
plans to spend 17.2
billion rubles on de-
fense in 1977 uses a
figure that is much too
low.
*
*
This figure is some 200 million
rubles less than last year's an-
nounced defense budget. However,
the single item labeled "defense"
in the annual state budget is vir-
tually useless as an indicator of
the true size of the USSR's annual
defense spending because it has
never been defined, and it appears
to be manipulated for political
purposes. Moreover, it is far too
low to cover the cost of procuring,
operating, and maintaining a force
the size of the Soviet military.
8
--continued
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4 The Mexican government
has allowed the peso
to depreciate to 25.8
pesos to the US dollar
from its previous level
of 19.7. Although the
move was announced as
a refloat of the peso,
the Central Bank is
supporting the peso at
the new rate.
25X1
We estimate that total Soviet de-
fense spending in 1970 prices for
the year 1975 was 50 to 55 billion
rubles--about three times the an-
nounced figure for that year--and
that defense spending has, in real
terms, been going up by 4 to 5
percent a year since 1971.
The decision appears to be a gamble
to stem the flight of capital which
reportedly has averaged $100 mil-
lion weekly since the peso was
first floated on September 1.
The Bank of Mexico apparently sees
the current exchange rate as tem-
porary and probably hopes to re-
value the peso after the bank h25X1
iday of November 2. The peso, in
fact, is undervalued.
25X1
9
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With Lower House elec-
tions in Japan only
about five weeks away,
the ruling Liberal Dem-
ocrats have decided to
postpone a divisive
leadership struggle in
favor of pre-election
unity at their conven-
tion on Sunday.
4 China has apparently
started producing its
first indigenously de-
signed fighter-inter-
ceptor, the Hsi-an A.
* * *
Opponents of Prime Minister Miki
late last week publicly called for
Deputy Prime Minister Fukuda to
replace Miki as party president
and prime minister. Fukuda de-
cided against forcing a showdown
at the convention, at least partly
because of sentiment in the party
favoring resolution of the issue
after, rather than before, the
election.
A serious effort to replace Miki
will probably be made shortly after
the election, when by law the en-
tire cabinet must resign and a new
prime minister elected by the new
Diet. The present Diet will prob-
ably be dissolved shortly after
the 50th anniversary of Hirohito's
reign as Emperor on November 10,
with the election itself most
likely falling on December 5.
* * *
Recent satellite photography and
at least three and per-
haps four aircraft have been built.
We have noted an increase in flight
activity by the Hsi-an A. The
Hsi-an A is a twin-engine, delta-
wing jet fighter similar to but
larger than the single-engine
MIG-21.
i
25X1
The aircraft is apparently powered
by the same Soviet-designed engine
that is used in the MIG-21; engine
characteristics noted in test
flights by the new fighter are
identical to characteristics of
10
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the MIG-21 engine.
25X1
We expect testing of the Hsi-an A
to continue, but, in the meantime,
China will probably produce the
aircraft for operational units.
The new fighter will probably not
be entering these units in quantity,
however, before 1978.
--continued
11
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0 RHODESIA
--continued
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