NELSON MANDELA: WHAT IF ALIVE AND WELL AND FREE IN SOUTH AFRICA?

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00641322
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: February 24, 2023
• Document Release Date: February 24, 2023
• Case Number: F-2014-00485
• Publication Date: September 26, 1986

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Wishintson.Ct C 2050S
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
26 September 1986
Nelson Mandela: What If Alive and
Well and Free in South Africa? rc-ta4..
Summary
Imprisoned African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela is the most
popular leader among South African blacks, many of whom view him as
the Hpresident-in-waiting- of a postapartheid South Africa. Mandela, who
was in his midforties and already had well-established views when he
entered prison in 1962, is an African nationalist and a socialist. Although
time and incarceration have undoubtedly had their impact, his fundamental
political philosophy has not changed. Before his imprisonment Mandela
worked closely with many South African Communists (most of whom were
not black), but the evidence on whether he Is a Communist, although not
conclusive, tends to support his claim that he never joined the South
African Communist Party. Mandela's writings reveal an affinity for Marxist
economic tenets and an appreciation for the Soviet Union but stop short
of endorsing Communist political systems. Pretoria has often charged
This memorandum was prepared by Office of
Leadership Analysis, for the Secretary of State's Advisory
Committee on South Africa. Information available as of 26
September 1986 was used in its preparation. It was
coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Comments
and queries are welcome and may be directed to the C ief,
Latin America/Africa/Europe Division, WA, on (U)
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Mandela with being a Communist, but it has never been able to
substantiate its allegation, in court or otherwise. ce-aia_
If the 68-year-old Mandela were released from prison without
conditions--as he has insisted--he very likely would immediately emerge
as the acknowledged leader of most South African blacks. He probably
would also reassume a top position in the ANC. If Pretoria agreed to
negotiate, we would expect Mandela to support the suspension of violence
and to seek the dismantling of apartheid; the creation of one-man,
one-vote representation; and the implementation of a socialist economy.
He would probably leave some room for compromise, particularly
concerning the role of whites in a black-ruled South Africa. We believe
his age and his perception of his place in history would drive him to move
quickly, but he would probably approach talks well aware that they might
fail and would thus be prepared to use the threat of renewed violence to
keep Pretoria at the bargaining table. (..C.-NO
Introduction
No single individual enjoys more popular support among South African blacks than
Nelson Mandela, whose popularity crosses all ethnic and geographic lines. Public
opinion polls indicate that most blacks regard him as their "leader and that they still
identify him with the outlawed African National Congress even though he no longer
holds an official position in the organization. During 24 years of imprisonment he has
become an almost mythical figure to blacks, embodying their aspirations and goals and
becoming a symbol of black strength and black resistance to the white regime. He has
also become a "cause celebre" for international critics of the South African Government.
His image has been transformed from that of a prominent leader of a protest movement
to that of the unofficial "president-in-waiting" of a postapartheid South Africa. (C NI)
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South African officials have been considering
MandelasreFei�b��ey fear that the death in prison of the aging
leader (he is 68) would trigger massive upheavals and would intensify international
criticism.1 Pretoria has other reasons to consider releasing him. Some South African
officials believe that his release could produce a public relations bonanza. It also might
exacerbate existing ideological divisions in the black community and throw the ANC and
other opponents off stride as they adjust to his return to the political fray. 4G-NP)-
The government has toyed with the idea of banishing Mandela to his native Transkei
(one of four independent black homelands) or expelling him from the country, but he has
steadfastly refused to consider these options. He has stated that his release must be
/ Despite Pretoria's concerns, Mandela Is currently in relatively good health and
receives excellent medical attention. According to press
several health problems.
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unconditional, and he has rejected State President P. W. Botha's offer to release him in
exchange for his renunciation of violence. ro-N.F..)._
We do not think that Mandela will change his mind on the issue of his unconditional
release. He almost certainly believes that his remaining in prison serves the black cause
better than his accepting a conditional release. He evidently calculates that his
continued imprisonment keeps International attention focused on the South Africa
problem and discredits government reform efforts that do not include him. He also
probably believes that, if Pretoria released him unconditionally, it would be prepared to
negotiate with him. We expect, given his statements, that Mandela would insist that his
release be accompanied by the legalization of the ANC. te-NE).
There are several scenarios under which Mandela could be released, including that
involving a drastic deterioration of his health. What follows is both an analysis of what
we know about Mandela's ideology and views and a projection of how we believe he
might act if he were released unconditionally and he and Pretoria agreed to negotiate.
It is in this latter scenario that we believe he would have the greatest impact on the
resolution of the South African crisis. (G-NF)-
Who Is Nelson Mandela?
Painting an accurate picture of Mandela after his 24 years in prison is not an easy task.
Most of our information on his views comes from the many public statements he made
before 1962 and during the early years of his incarceration. Although time and
Imprisonment have undoubtedly altered his views and embittered him somewhat, he
says he remains fundamentally unchanged. (C Nfl
Mandela was a mature (44), experienced man with well-established views when he
entered prison; he had held several high ANC offices (he had been president of the
Youth League, deputy president of the ANC, and commander of the military wing).
Mandela says that he is as committed today to the ANC and to the vague socialist goals
sketched out in its Freedom Charter as he was before his incarceration. te-f4F)--
Imprisonment has not prevented Mandela from keeping in touch with the outside world.
A voracious reader, he is well informed on current events and is fully aware of black
demands and expectations, many of which predate his imprisonment. He probably
receives additional information on outside conditions from occasional visitors and
friendly prison warders as well as through the prison grapevine. Throughout his
Incarceration he has communicated his views to supporters and other ANC leaders by
using family members and press interviews to publicize his opinions, by having letters
smuggled out of jail, and by using released prisoners as messengers. (
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His Ideology
Since beginning political life in 1944. Mandela has been variously described as a
nationalist, a socialist, a Communist, a terrorist, or some combination of these. We
believe that he is a nationalist with strong socialist convictions who is committed to a
nonracial South Africa. Mandela, however, has never spelled out his views, perhaps
intentionally leaving them open to interpretation. 16-141f4�
Mandela describes himself as an African nationalist and as a socialist who is attracted to
the idea of a classless society. His ideals are partly a product of his romanticized view
of African history and culture. In a court statement in 1962, for example, he said, "The
structure and organization of early African societies in this country fascinated me very
much and greatly influenced the evolution of my political outlook. The land, then the
main means of production, belonged to the whole tribe, and there was no individual
ownership whatsoever. There were no classes, no rich or poor, and no exploitation of
man by man. All men were free and equal and this was the foundation of government."
Mandela clearly stated his commitment to socialism during his 1964 trial when he
declared: "I am attracted by the idea of a classless society, an attraction which springs
in part from Marxist reading and in part from my admiration of the structure and
organization of early African societies In this country. [We in the ANC] all accept the
need for some form of socialism to enable our people to catch up with the advanced
countries of this world and to overcome their legacy of extreme poverty." le-N9--
Although socialism and one-party political systems in Africa often go hand in hand,
Mandela has been ambivalent about the one-party system. In 1960, for example, he
declared: "If democracy would best be served by a one-party system then I would
examine the proposition very carefully. But if democracy could best be expressed by a
multiparty system then I would examine that carefully." We believe that Mandela would
bow to white demands and to South African political and social realities and accept a
multiparty system, at least for the short term. (C NF)
Many observers have labeled Mandela a Communist because of his close working
relationship with many members of the South African Communist Party. He had ample
Opportunity to join the SACP before his incarceration, but he has stated that he never
did so, possibly because the ideology did not mesh with his deep attachment to
nationalism and to the socialist, quasi-democratic ideals that he believes characterize
traditional African culture. (C
Although the evidence on whether Mandela is a Communist is not conclusive, it tends to
support his claim that he never joined the South African Communist Party. Pretoria,
which has for years accused Mandela of being a Communist, has never been able to
substantiate its charge, in court or otherwise, despite its considerable intelligence
collection capabilities and its unconcealed desire to display such proof before the West.
The government, in fact, now appears to be backing down from its allegation. Minister
of Law and Order Louis Le Grange this year publicly distanced himself from Pretoria's
contention that Mandela was "Communist controlled" (the term the government had
begun to use) and stated his belief that Mandela was a "nationalist." te-Nri--
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Mandela nevertheless has longstanding ties to many Communists and has approved the
ANC's close working relationship with the SACP. During his 1964 trial, he acknowledged
his association with Communists and sought to explain the nature of the ANC's
relationship with them: "It is true that there has often been close cooperation between
the ANC and the Communist Party. But cooperation is merely proof of a common goal,
In this case the removal of white supremacy, and is not proof of a complete community
of interests." Continuing his defense, he asserted: "I joined the ANC in 1944, and in my
younger days I held the view that the policy of admitting Communists to the ANC, and
the close cooperation, which existed at that time on specific issues between the ANC
and the CP, would lead to a watering down of African nationalism. At that stage I was a
member of the ANC Youth League and was one of a group which moved for the
expulsion of Communitts from the ANC." He went on to say that he was later
convinced that the ANC had to accommodate people of various political convictions.Ae
Fr
Mandela supports some Marxist tenets and, according to his statements, regards the
Soviet Union more highly than the United States. He has often expressed his admiration
for the theoretical nonracialism and social and economic equality of Marxism and for the
active opposition of Communist states to the white minority government. His kudos for
the Soviet Union include a comment he made last year: "I appreciate the Soviet Union
only because it was the one country that long ago condemned racialism and supported
liberation movements." Mandela's published writings, however, say little about Marxist
political systems and instead reveal an appreciation for Western democratic institutions.
4G-istFr
Views on Violence
Mandela advocates the violent overthrow of the white minority government because of
its refusal to negotiate with blacks. He was a major force in the formation in 1961 of
the ANC's military wing Umkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation--MK), and, during his
trial in 1964, admitted that he helped plan sabotage. In his statement he declared that
the South African Government had by its refusal to redress black grievances driven him
to adopt violence as a means of engineering change: "I do not deny that I planned
sabotage. I did not plan it in a spirit of recklessness, nor because I have any love of
violence. I planned it as a result of a calm and sober assessment of the political
situation that had arisen after many years of tyranny...by whites." At the same trial he
stated that "only when all else had failed, when all channels of peaceful protest had
been banned to us, was the decision made to embark on violent forms of political
struggle, and to form MK."
Views Toward the United States
Few of Mandela's thoughts about the United States have been published in recent years,
but what is available indicates that he is critical of US policy toward South Africa and
probably considers the United States a supporter of the white regime. Most of his
published comments were made during the 1950$ and appeared in Communist-funded
publications. In those articles, which portrayed the United States as an imperialist
power that posed a serious threat to independent African states, Mandela comes across
as strongly anti-American.
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Mandela has, however, been complimentary of the United States. In 1964 he spoke
highly of the US system of government and praised the Bill of Rights, separation of
powers, and judicial independence. We believe that if he were released from prison, he
would be willing to talk with US officials but would probably Insist on a high-level
meeting and resist suggestions that he modify his basic demands or agree to a lengthy
transition to black-majority rule.
After His Release
We believe that Mandela, if released unconditionally, would quickly assume the
leadership of the black protest movement. Almost all black opposition figures,
describing him as a legitimate representative of their aspirations, have demanded his
release. Most black leaders would welcome his release, and the few who privately do
not auld find it politically difficult, perhaps even dangerous, to come out against him.
Relations With the ANC
An unconditional release might also heighten the ANC's popular backing, which, although
significant, is not as broad as Mandela's. In recent press Interviews Mandela has
reaffirmed his commitment to the ANC and his complete support for the policies of ANC
President Oliver Tambo, a close friend whom he met almost 50 years ago. If Mandela
were released, he would almost certainly reassume a top ANC post. In fact, Tambo, who
is in poor health, might step aside and push for Mandela's election as his successor.
511
Mandela's reintegration into the ANC would not be without its difficulties. Some
observers have speculated that his release might exacerbate existing tensions in the
ANC's nationalist, Communist, and young militant factions. We believe, however, that
the resulting euphoria and Mandela's strong claim to leadership would push differences
below the surface--at least for the short term. In our view, Mandela would not hesitate
to work with those ANC Communists whom he considered tried and loyal supporters of
the "cause.*
Allies and Rivals
The already popular Mandela could count on many allies In the black community.
Among those who would probably rally around his banner are the two-million-strong
United Democratic Front (the country's leading antiapartheid movement) and the
600,000-member Congress of South African Trade Unions. As the excitement
surrounding his release died down and his reputation assumed human proportions,
however, some individuals and groups (Gatsha Buthelezi and his Zulu organization,
lnkatha, as well as Colored, Indian, and homeland leaders) would probably emerge as
rivals. Mandela might also clash with black consciousness advocates and with young
ANC militants if they thought he was too accommodating to whites. L.C...-101
Mandela would probably come down hard on nonwhite critics whose opposition
threatened his cherished goal of black unity. He would be likely, however, to handle
more gingerly powerful black leaders with large constituencies in order to avoid a
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significant split among blacks. The ambitious Buthelezi, because he has strong support
among South Africa's six million Zulus, would probably be Mandela's major concern. (.0--
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Mandela and Negotiations
Mandeia's demands for change in South Africa are major, but his statements suggest a
willingness to talk and some flexibility in his negotiating positions. His demands, as
stated over the past two years, have included the dismantling of apartheid; the abolition
of the homelands system; one man one vote; and the creation of a socialist economy.
Earlier this year, however, he told a liberal white parliamentarian that he had committed
himself to creating a climate for negotiations and that the ANC shared this commitment.
Moreover, in a recent interview with a US citizen, he noted that balance and restraint
were essential to the dismantling of apartheid and the building of a cohesive multiracial
society. In a statement meant to allay white fears on an issue particularly sensitive for
them, he declared: We are willing to maintain separate living areas until there are
enough new employment opportunities and new homes to allow blacks to live in
Johannesburg in dignity." le�Nr.).-
In our view, Mandela, who worked closely with whites for many years before his
imprisonment, would almost certainly approach negotiations with an eye toward
convincing whites that there will be a place for them in a black�ruled South Africa.
Much of what he says and implies now is probably tactical in nature, but we believe he
is sincere about multiracialism and recognizes that retaining whites is important to
South Africa's economic prosperity. At the same time, however, we do not believe that
he would compromise on the fundamental demand of black�majority rule, although he
would probably accept a voting system that guaranteed some white representation. 1r/
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Mandela's age and his perception of his place in history are likely to push him to move
quickly on talks. His perception that there is relatively little time left to him might
enhance his willingness to compromise on secondary issues. At the same time,
however, young militants might regard concessions as a sign of weakness and challenge
Mandela; he would thus probably insist that whites make most concessions. Mandela
would also, in our view, approach talks in the awareness that they might fail and would
therefore be prepared to support a resumption of violence if he believed that was the
only way to wrest real change from Pretoria. p-Pe-y-
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Nelson MANDELA SOUTH AFRICA
Nelson Mandela is the son of a prominent
chief of the Xhosa ethnic group. After studying
at a local Methodist school, he went to the
University of Fort Hare in the late 1930s but was
expelled in 1940 for organizing the boycott of a
student council whose powers had been stripped
away. He settled in Johannesburg and held a
variety of jobs, including those of real estate agent
and policeman for a mining company, while
studying law by correspondence. He later became
articled to a firm of white attorneys and also took
law courses at the University of Witwatersrand.
During the 1950s he and Oliver Tambo ran a joint
law practice in Johannesburg. (U)
Mandela joined the ANC in 1944 and soon
emerged as a prominent member of the
organization, becoming secretary general of the ANC Youth League, which he helped found
that year. The victory of the Afrikaners' National Party in the 1948 elections and the
ensuing implementation of its apartheid policies led Mandela, who was already known as
one of the ANC's most militant leaders, to urge the older, moderate members to engage in
strikes, boycotts, and civil disobedience. His increasing prominence led to his election as
president of the Youth League in 1950, and in 1952 he was elected deputy president of the
ANC and president of the its Transvaal branch. In that same year he was one of 20 ANC
leaders convicted for their Defiance Campaign, a mass civil protest against apartheid.
Mandela was charged with treason in 1956 but acquitted five years later. (U)
Not until the early 1960s did Mandela decide that equal rights for blacks could be
obtained only through violence. The events that apparently triggered this decision were the
Sharpeville massacre of 1960 (in which 69 blacks protesting government policies were killed
by police), the banning of the ANC that year, and the 1961 whites-only referendum that
transformed the Union of South Africa into a republic.N.N.F)
Soon after the dismissal of the treason charges in 1961, Mandela left South Africa to
drum up international support for the ANC. His stopovers included Algeria, where he
received military and guerrilla warfare training. He returned to South Africa to lead the
ANC's sabotage campaign, but in 1962 he was arrested and sentenced to five years'
imprisonment for inciting a strike and illegally leaving the country. In 1964 he was tried
again; after pleading guilty to many of the government's charges, he was sentenced to life
imprisonment for sabotage, treason, and other crimes. Since 1982 he has been at Pollsmoor
Prison outside Cape Town. He spends most of his time gardening, reading, exercising, and,
undoubtedly, planning for the future. r..-Nry
Personal Data
Mandela has been married twice. He divorced his first wife, whose current
whereabouts are unknown, in the mid-1950s. The marriage produced two sons and a
daughter. The older son died in a car accident in 1970. The younger son works in
Johannesburg; the daughter attends graduate school at the University of Massachusetts.
The children are not politically active. (C---NTT
(cont.)
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Mandela married his current wife, Winnie, in 1958. This marriage produced two
daughters. The elder is married to a member of the Swazi royal family; she maintains a low
political profile. The younger daughter, like her parents, actively opposes Pretoria's policies.
Mandela has at least five grandchildren. (C44.9--
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