JOINT EVALUATION OF SOVIET MISSILE THREAT IN CUBA

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 01316395
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: May 23, 2025
• Document Release Date: April 24, 2025
• Case Number: F-2013-00646
• Publication Date: October 18, 1962

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JOINT EVALUATION
OF
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SOVIET MISSILE THREAT IN CUBA
PREPARED BY
Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee
Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee
National Photographic Interpretation Center
2100 HOURS
18 OCTOBER 1962
This report is based on relatively complete photo inter-
pretation of U-2 photography mode on:
14 October 1962 Mission 3101
15 October 1962 Missions 3102 & 3103
Very preliminary , and incomplete readout of coverage of the
six U-2 Missions flown on 17 October 1962 ore also reflected
in this report.
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CONCLUSIONS IN BRIEF
Offensive Missiles
1. At least one Soviet regiment consisting of eight launchers and
sixteen 1020-nm (SS-4) medium range ballistic missiles is now deployed
in western Cuba at two launch sites. These sites presently contain un-
revetted, field-type launchers which rely on mobile erection, checkout, and
support equipment. These missiles are probably those reported moving
into this area during September. Although there is continuing improvement
of these sites, these mobile missiles must be considered operational now
and could be launched within18 hours after the decision to launch. A refire
from each launcher could be accomplished within 5 hours after the initial
firing.
2. Fixed, soft sites which could achieve initial operational capability
during December 1962 are now being developed near Havana. We believe
that the 2200-nm (SS-5) intermediate range ballistic missile is probably
intended for these sites. Photography of these sites show eight, fixed launch
pads under construction which probably equate to an additional missile
regiment with eight ready missiles and eight for refire.
3. All of these offensive missile systems are Soviet manned and con-
trolled. We believe that offensive action by these systems would be com-
manded from the Soviet Union but have not yet found the command and
control communication links.
Nuclear Warheads for Offensive Missiles
4. There is no positive evidence of the presence of nuclear warheads
in Cuba, nor have weapons storage facilities of the standard, highly secure
Soviet type been identified. However, there are seven, large Cuban
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munitions' storage areas south of Havana which could be converted to
Soviet needs in a relatively shore dine. Hmporary storage could be pro-
vided in ships or field sites which might not be identified.
5. Nevertheless, one must assume that nuclear warheads could now be
available in Cuba to support the offensive missile capability as it becomes
operational. The warheads expected for these missiles weigh approximately
3,000 pounds and have yields in the low megaton range.
Coastal Defense Missiles
6. Three coastal defense missile sites have now been identified in
Cuba, two of which must now be considered operational (Banes and Santa
Cruz del Norte). In an alert status, these cruise missiles can be fired in
about 10 minutes, with subsequent firings from each launcher at 5 minute
intervals.
Air Defense Missiles
7. There are now 22 surface-to-air missiles (SA-2) sites located in
Cuba, nine of which are believed to be individually operational at the present
time. The remaining SA-2 sites could be operational in two to three weeks.
Each site contains six missiles with six additional missiles in an adjacent
hold area. The initial firing can take place anytime after an alert, pro-
viding the site has reached readiness. Refire from a single launcher will
take approximately 3 to 5 minutes.
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Force Levels
9. There are now at least sixteen1020-nm Soviet ballistic missiles in
Cuba which are in such a state of readiness that they could be fired within
18 hours of a decision to launch. It is likely that other installations now
being examined in photography will raise the number to 32, all of which
could be ready in the next week. Furthermore, 8 launchers with sixteen
2200-nm missiles will probably be operational in Cuba during December
1962. We must emphasize that this is the visible threat, and that additional
missiles may be discovered as additional photography is analyzed.
Support and Supply
10. Offensive missiles systems are being introduced into Cuba
primarily through the Port of Marie!. Possible central missile checkout,
storage .and repair bases have been tentatively located at Soroa near the
western deployment sites and at Managua south of Havana. It is significant
that all three of the Soviet missiles now being deployed in Cuba (SS-4,
SS-5, SA-2) probably use red fuming nitric acid as an oxidizer so that a
common propellant supply and storage could be used.
Significance
11. The magnitude of the total Soviet missile force being deployed
indicates that the USSR intends to develop- Cuba into a prime strategic
base, rather than as a token show of strength.
12. A mixed force of 1020- and 2200-nm missiles would give the USSR
a significant strategic strike capability, against almost all targets in the
U.S. (see map). By deploying stockpiled shorter range ballistic missiles
at overseas bases against which we have no BMEWS warning capability, the
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Soviet Union will supplement its ICBM home force in a significant way.
This overses,... Jtrategic force is protected by an extensive deployment
in Cuba.
13. This same offensive force also poses a common threat to the U.S.
and a large portion of Latin America for the first time.
14. The USSR is making a major military investment in Cuba with some
of their most effective guided missile systems. The planning for this
operation must have started at least one year ago and put into motion last
spring.
ADDENDUM
Two additional launch sites have just been found north of Santa Clara
(Mission 3107). Neither site was present on 5 September 1962. Analysis is
still underway;, only preliminary views can be expressed. One site is
similar to the fixed soft site described in paragraph 2. This site is in a
more advanced state of readiness and could have the essential features
for an. operational capability within one month. The other site is similar
to the field-type installation described in paragraph 1. These new sites
are not included in the numbers appearing elsewhere in this paper.
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