CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/28

Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
02692637
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
7
Document Creation Date: 
June 6, 2019
Document Release Date: 
June 27, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 28, 1952
File: 
Body: 
Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 'N.-- TOP S2RET Nov' SECURI FORMATION 28 October 1952 Copy No. 5 3.5(c) CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Office of Current Intelligence DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN Ct. SS. LI DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS jai NEXT REVIEW DATE: l AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: REVIEWER: , 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP SECRET 3.5(c) SEC INFORMATION Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 TkziP SECRET 3.5(c) SUMMARY GENERAL 1. Soviet official suggests armistice solution lies in New York (page 3). FAR EAST 2. Enemy twin-jet bombers arrive in Manchuria (page 3). 3. Chinese Communists concerned over possible Nationalist invasion (page 4). 4. 5. 6. 7. NEAR EAST - AFRICA Deteriorating political situation confronts Iraqi Regent (page 4). Egypt's participation in MEDO depends on British evacuation of Suez (page 6). General Nagib's moderate policy reportedly hampered by lack of Western aid (page 6). WESTERN EUROPE 8. Italian ratification of EDC to await French parliamentary action (page 7). * * * * 2 - 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) TOP RET Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 Tvii>SECRET 3.5(c: GENERAL 1. Soviet official suggests armistice solution lies in New York: Comment: The USSR has launched a campaign to undermine the Unite,d States stand on the Korean question and create dissension among, UN members. FAR EAST 2. Enemy twin-jet bombers arrive in Manchuria: ´┐ŻEight Soviet 1L-28 jet bombers flew from Chita in Soviet Russfa to Tsitsihar in Manchuria 3 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2; 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 11--8ECRET 3.5(c) Comment: These twin-engine light bombers may be destined ultimately for Port Arthur ,to replace the TU-2 bomb- er division which left there in early October. Since they represent the only known jet bombers in Manchuria, their presence in MuMen, even on a temporary basis, would increase the capability of ComniuniSt air power against UN targets in Korea. 3. Chinese Communists concerned over, possible Nationalist invasion: The Chinese Communists expect an early 3.3(h)(2) invasion of mainland China by the Nationalists from Formosa, according to continuing reports received by the American Consul Cieneral in Hong Kong. These reports suggest e new invasion precautions which have been taken in many coastal cities are a result of fear aroused by Nationalist aerial reconnaissance and guerrilla raids in sensitive areas. Comment: The recent large-scale Nationalist raid on Nan Jih Island, off the Fukien coast about 80 miles northeast of Amoy, may have been regarded by the Communists as a prelude to invasion of the mainland. NEAR EAST \ - AFRICA 4. Deteriorating political situation confronts Iraqi Regent: Four political parties in Iraq are reportedly 3.3(h)(2) ready- W. boycott the fo-rthtoming elections Jr the Regent turns down a series of reforms, 4 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 T(,/>fai ;11E1' 3.5(c) palace officials 3.3(h)(2) in Baghdad have resolved to bring the deteriorating political situation to the attention of the Regent. Comment: Parliament was dissolved on 27 October. Iraq, now governea-Tay a caretaker government, awaits the decision of the Regent on the date of the elections, which will be held shortly, on whether there are to be reforms, and on the make-up of the caretaker cabinet which will conduct the elections. The political parties threatening a boycott are extremists and their demands for electoral reforms have had the backing of the Communists. These reports indicate that the political pressures which have been causing upheavals in Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon may also be powerful in Iraq. 5 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 11(,. SP ECM-LIT 3.5(c) 6. Egypt's participation in MEDO depends on British evacuation of Suez: General Nagib and the 7vntian Forpign Minister have informed that Egyptian participation in MED is impossible as long as British troops remain in the Suez area. Nagib stated that while he would not be "so foolish as the Wafd" and fight the British, he could not accept anything short of British evacuation of the canal zone. The general stated that it was in Egypt's Interest to enter an organization such as MEDO, but also pointed out the disadvantages which he believed Egypt would suffer in joining. Its participation, he said, would induce the other Arab countries to follow suit. If Egypt subsequently withdrew, other countries, particularly Syria and Iraq, might remain and Egypt would then be isolated. 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) Nagib informed however, that he would continue studying the question of participation and discuss the matter with him in two or three weeks. Comment: This is the clearest statement to date of the Egyptian military regime's attitude on the withdrawal of British troops from the canal zone. It is also the first suggestion that the Cairo government might not join MEDO even if Britain evacuated the Suez area. 7. General Nagib's moderate policy reportedly hampered by lack of Western General Nagib is quoted as complaining that he has not yet received any advantage from his friendly policy toward the West, - 6 - 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637 SECRET and consequently is experiencing difficulty in controlling the nationalist members of his cabinet, who he says are inclined to favor Russia. Nagib cited his failure to obtain jet aircraft and the release of 5,000,000 pounds from Great Britain as handicaps that make it difficult for him to convince extremists in the cabinet thata pro-Western policy is worthwhile. Comment: The British Cabinet is expected to decide shortly whetherTiFrie ease some of the 65 jet aircraft ordered by Egypt. Release of the 51000,000 pounds is still under discussion. WESTERN EUROPE 8. Italian ratification of EDC to await French parliamentary action: The American Embassy in Rome states that the Italian Government will await clarifi- cation of the French parliamentary situation before seeking ratification of the EDC treaty. The Embassy believes that it will be under heavy attack for failure to secure concessions on Trieste, and will therefore not be receptive to pressure for prompt ratification. Comment: Italy's own requests for concessions in American aid, and for support of its position on Trieste in return for ratification of EDC, may well depend ill the parliamentary recommendations which Pinay has invited on possible "additions" to the EDC treaty. 7 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) -"Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2692637